The September NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1590.50. (The NASDAQ 100 has made lower weekly highs for four consecutive weeks). Further resistance is located between the August high of 1635.00 and this year's weekly high of 1643.00. If the market can clear these highs look for a rally to the weekly January 2002 high of 1717.00 or the weekly December 2001 high of 1738.00. Further resistance is at the psychological 1800 mark. Near term support is at the August low of 1555.00 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1550.60. If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to technical support clustered between the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1498.40, the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1498.00, and the daily July low of 1491.00. Failure to establish support here may quickly take send the NASDAQ 100 to the all-session July low of 1465.00. If this low is broken the market may get smashed right to this year's current weekly low of 1397.00. Open Interest is still flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is oversold on the daily chart and overbought on the monthly chart. The NASDAQ 100 should decline in September. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position in three months. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since mid-March.

Interest rates - December T-bonds find near term resistance at last week's two month high of 118-10. Further resistance is at the contract high of 119-00. A break out to new contract highs should add another point onto the market and allow it to test the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 119-24 and the June high on the monthly chart at 119-30. If T-bonds do not back off from this level they could surge to the 2003 all-time high of 124-10. Near term support is at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for nearly a month followed by the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 116-13 in confluence with last week's low of 116-12. (T-bonds have made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). A break below this near term support could send the market back to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115-08 to catch it's breath. If the decline does not end here the market may be headed for bigger technical support clustered between the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113-16, the daily August low of 113-11, and the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113-06. Failure to hold support at this level could doom the T-bonds to make a swift descent to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16 or this year's current weekly low of 109-00. The December NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term resistance at the all-time high of 5-30 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the psychological 7-00 mark. Near term daily support is at the daily August low of 4-09 premium T-bonds followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 4-055 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-025 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is almost at a three month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are overbought on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher in September. Commercial interests are neutral on bonds. Large traders are neutral as well. Small traders are the least bearish in three months.

December T-notes find near term resistance at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for a month followed by last week's high of 111-22. (T-notes have made lower weekly highs for four consecutive weeks and lower weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks). A strong close above it could send notes up to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113-07. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 113-27 in confluence with the June 27th reaction high of 114-00. If rally does not end here look for the market to challenge a bigger technical barrier at the weekly June high of 114-16 and the daily September contract high of 114-21. If T-notes break out of this level it could quickly hit the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-005. Further resistance is located between last year's weekly high of 117-31 and the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 118-08. Near term support is at last week's three month low on the daily chart at 110-28. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-09. If T-notes do not stabilize here they could drop to the major double bottom on the weekly chart at this year's current weekly low of 107-265 and last year's weekly low of 107-255. A break below it could smash T-notes down to the 105-00 area. Open Interest is at a six week high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are nearly oversold on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways to slightly higher sideways in August. Commercials are neutral to bullish on T-notes. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are neutral as well.

International bonds - December Canadian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at the contract high of 117.21. A rally above it could allow the market to test last week's new all-time high on the weekly chart at 117.78. A break out above these highs should allow CGBs to challenge psychological numbers such as 119.00, 120.00, etc. Near term support is found at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for nearly a month followed by last week's low of 115.96. (CGBs have made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). This is also close to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 115.87. A break below this near term support could elect liquidation sell stops and take the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.04. Further support is at the daily August low of 113.70. (CGBs have only broken a previous month's low once in the last five months).  December Euro bunds find near term resistance at the new contract high of 123.69. A break out above it should allow the market to test last week's new all-time high of 124.60 on the weekly chart. If the market continues to register new all-time highs expect it to go right on up to the psychological 125 mark followed by the psychological 126 area. Near term support is at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for nearly a month followed by last week's low of 122.23 (bunds have made higher weekly highs for three consecutive weeks and higher weekly lows for the last four weeks) in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 122.38. A break below this near term support could cause a retracement to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 121.58. Further support is at the daily August low of 120.27 (Bunds have only broken a previous month's low once in the last five months) in confluence with last year's all-time high of 120.00 (old resistance).  December London long gilts find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 114.35. Further resistance is at last week's weekly high of 114.60 followed by this year's current weekly high of 114.72. If December gilts make a new contract high it should immediately challenge the psychological 115 mark. Further technical resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 117.16 followed by the weekly December 2003 high of 117.40. Near term support is at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for nearly a month followed by the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113.32 in confluence with last week's low of 113.34. (Gilts have made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for the last four weeks). If this near term support should fail expect a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.69. Further support is at the daily August low of 111.66. (Long gilts have only broken a previous month's low once in the last five months). If this low is broken look for the market to test the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.95 in confluence with the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.91.  December Australian 10-year bonds find near term resistance between the contract high of 95.02. If the market closes above this new high expect a rally to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 95.115. Further resistance may not be found again until last year's weekly high of 95.45. Near term support is at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for nearly a month followed by last week's low of 94.88. (Aussie bonds have made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). A break below this near term support could send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.755. Further support is at the daily August low of 94.595 followed by the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.565. If Aussie bonds fail to establish support here they could crack to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.32.  December JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) may have finally ended their down trend on the daily chart. This market is the last one to join the bull run that the European, British, Canadian, Australian, and US bonds have all enjoyed for weeks. If December JGBs take out resistance at last week's one month high of 139.88 in confluence with the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.90 they could rally to the daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 140.50. Further resistance is at the contract high of 141.27 followed closely by the double top on the weekly chart at this year's high of 141.35. If the market can break this price barrier look for a surge to the August 2003 reaction high of 142.50 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 142.50. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 138.53 in confluence with last week's low of 138.50. If this support does not hold JGBs could test the daily August low of 137.69. If this low is broken December JGBs could plunge to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 136.29.

Currencies - The US dollar index could be in trouble here. It broke below the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement after holding it on August 12th. The greenback also made an outside reversal down on the weekly chart last week. A break below last week's three month low of 86.02 could hammer the market down to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.37. Further support may not be found until the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 82.66. Near term resistance is at the August 19th reaction high of 88.82 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 88.89. A break out above it could allow the greenback to challenge this year's current high of 90.66. If the market can make a new high for the year it may have room to move to last year's high of 92.50. If the buck does not stop here perhaps it is following a route to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Open Interest is at a four month low. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move sideways to slightly lower in September. Commercial interests are the least bearish since mid-April. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since early May. Small traders are neutral.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at the contract high of .8474. Further resistance is at last year's nearly thirteen year high of .8530. A break out above this high could send the "looney" soaring to the 1991 high of .8906. Near term support is at the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above every trading day but one over the last month followed by last week's low of .8315. (The Canadian dollar has made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks). A break below this near term support could take the market down to the daily August low of .8168. (The Canadian dollar has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for three consecutive months). If last month's low is taken out the market could decline to the daily July low of .8027 or even the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at .8003. Failure to show stability here could crush the market down to the contract low of .7875. If the September Canadian dollar hits a new contract low expect it to tank to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7668 or the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7628. Open Interest is at multi-month highs. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to move sideways in a choppy range in September. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in over five months. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since mid-March. Small traders are still holding their biggest net long position that they have had this year.

The Australian dollar finds near term support at the August low of .7449. A break below it could allow the market to test the contract low of .7336. If the September Australian dollar hits a new contract low expect sell stops to get elected and quickly smack this market down to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212. If 72 cents does not give good support the market may decline even further to the psychological 70 cent mark. The Aussie made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart last week. This is a bullish sign. Near term resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7741 in confluence with the August high of .7742. This is quickly followed by the daily June high of .7770. If the Aussie penetrates this barrier look for a rally to the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .7852. Open Interest is sitting flat at low levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Australian dollar is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move sideways in September. Commercials are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are also neutral. Small traders are neutral as well.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar spread reached the highest level in nearly three years! Near term resistance is at the daily August high of .0920 (about nine and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the psychological ten cent mark. A strong close above ten cents could take the spread on up to the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .1139 (about eleven and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .0655 (about six and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the daily August low of .0531 (about five and a third cents) premium Canadian dollar. After that the spread could find support at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0491 (about five cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound looks pretty bullish. The market made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart when it took out a two week low and the reversed to hit a multi-month high. Near term resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8442 in confluence with last week's three and a half month high of 1.8423. A break out above it could trigger enough buy stops to take it up to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8637. If the rally does not end here sterling could be headed to the psychological 1.90 mark in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 1.9017. A break below last week's low of 1.7812 could void this week's bullish price action and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7700. If the market does not stabilize here it could plummet to the contract low of 1.7242. A break to new lows should send the pound right to the psychological 1.70 mark. Further support may not be found again until the psychological 1.65 level. Near term resistance is at the August high of 1.8160. A break out above it could trigger enough buy stops to take it up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8637. Open Interest is flat. The pound has a seasonal tendency to decline for most of September and then rally in the last week of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in three and a half months. Large traders (hedge funds) are the least bearish since mid-May. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since early May.

The September Swiss franc finds near term resistance at last week's three month high .8173. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8429. Near term support is located between the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7868 and the August 24th reaction low of .7837. Further support is at the current contract low of .7680. If the Swissie hits a new low expect a decline to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7592 or even last year's low of .7566. A break below last year's low could cause an accelerated decline to the weekly November 2003 reaction low of .7247. Open Interest is still flat. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually rallies in September. Commercial interests are the least bullish since May but they still maintain a huge net long position. Large traders are still holding a major large net short position. Small traders are holding a large net short position but they are the least bearish since early May.

The Euro currency finds near term resistance at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2583 in confluence with last week's three month high 1.2598. If the Euro can conquer this barrier perhaps it may take on the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3004. Near term support is found at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2167 followed closely by the daily August low of 1.2140. Further support is at the current the contract low of 1.1900. If the Euro slips to a new contract low look for it to get hit fast and hard. The first break down should send it to last year's low of 1.1745. After that it could drop swiftly to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Open Interest is flat. Seasonally, the Euro should move sideways in the first half of September and then decline rally in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are neutral on the Euro right now. Large traders are neutral as well. Small traders are also neutral.

The Japanese yen finds near term support at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008980 in confluence with the August 31st reaction low of .008963. A break below it could send the market back down to July's multi-month low of .008844. If this low doesn't hold look for a decline to last year's weekly low of .008710. Further support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008351. Near term resistance is at the daily August high of .009201 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .009234. If the yen rally does not end here it could muster enough strength to run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009474 in confluence with the daily June high of .009485. Open Interest is flat. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher in September. Commercial interests are holding a large net long position. Large traders are still holding a near record net short position. Small traders are neutral.

Metals - December gold made a huge outside reversal up on the weekly chart last week when it dropped to the lowest level in a month and then reversed to take out the previous week's high. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $451.00. Further resistance is at the August high of $453.40. If December gold can take this high out it will face resistance at this year's current high of $458.50. A strong close above this high could unleash the manic gold bulls again and possibly send the market soaring to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $490.30 (as measured between the 1980 high of $875 and the multi-decade double bottom low of $252.50), the psychological $500 mark, and the 1987 spike high of $502.30. Near term support is at last week's one month low of $433.50 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $433.40. If this low is broken the market could quickly visit an important technical support cluster between the daily July low of $424.20, the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $423.00 (gold has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in four years!), and the December gold contract low of $421.00. If this price level fails expect an immediate decline to this year's current low on the weekly chart at $410.10. After that the gold bugs could get squashed as gold plummets to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $378.30 or even last year's monthly low of $372.00. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-March. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move higher in September. Commercials are holding a near record net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record net long position. Small traders are neutral.

December silver finds near term support at last week's nearly seven month low of $6.705. Further support is at this year's low on the weekly chart at $6.35. After that silver may not find support until the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $6.085 in confluence with the weekly September low of $6.065. Things don't look so good for silver at the moment. The market made an outside reversal down on the monthly chart when it took out the previous month's high and then reversed to close below the previous month's low. In addition to that silver also closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for the first time in over two years. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $7.125 (silver has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for the last four weeks) as well as the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If the market can break out above last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average December silver could make an attempt at a recovery. If this happens the market could rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $7.08. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.315 followed by the daily August high of $7.40. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should rally in September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June of 2003! Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short positions since then. Small traders are neutral.

December copper finds resistance at last week's new contract high of 169.10. Further resistance is at the all-time high on the weekly chart at 176.80. Further resistance is at the psychological 180 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 161.10 (December copper has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-July). If the market drops below last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could begin a long-awaited correction. If this happens December copper could initially decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 153.10. If the market does not stabilize here it could be headed down to visit the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 144.00 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in over two years) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 143.20. If the market does not stabilize here it could plummet to the daily July low of 136.30 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 136.10. Open Interest dropped to the lowest level since early July. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to stay in a choppy sideways range in September. Commercials are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are neutral.

Energies - Octobber crude oil spiked to a new all-time high of $70.85!! It could quickly test the $75 mark. After that crude oil may take on the big psychological hurdle at $80. Near term support is at last week's low of $66.30 (October crude oil has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since for over a month). A break below last week's low followed by the 9-day Moving Average closing back below the 18-day Moving Average could indicate that the market is ready for a decline. If this occurs look for a drop to the daily August low of $61.75. (October crude oil has only broken a previous month's low once in the last eight months). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $58.12. After that crude oil could be headed to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $50.00. (Crude oil copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for two years). Open Interest is at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move slightly higher in September. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are neutral as well.

October Unleaded Gas finds resistance at the current contract high of 245.00. Further resistance is at the weekly August spike high of 292.50!! Near term support is at last week's low of 191.00 (October gasoline has only broken a previous week's low once in the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since the end of July). If gasoline takes out a previous weekly low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average gasoline may be ready for a decline to the daily August low of 165.80. (October gasoline has only broken a previous month's low once in the last eight months). Further support is at the daily July low of 150.30. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, gasoline should rally in the first week of September and then trend lower for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are still holding an extremely large net short position. Large traders are sitting on a near record size net long position. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

October natural gas finds near term resistance at last week's new all-time high of 12.250. Further resistance is at the psychological 13.000 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 10.650 (October natural gas has made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If market receeds and breaks below a previous weekly low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average natural gas could come under liquidation pressure and fill the huge gap on the daily chart between 10.650 and 10.050 or tag the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.995. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.605. Open Interest reached a multi-year high in mid-August and then hit a one month low at the end of the month as the September contract expired. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to rally in September. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in four months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since early April. Small traders are holding a near record size net long position.

Meats - October live cattle finds near term resistance between the daily August high of 83.90 and the daily July high of 84.05. If these highs are exceeded look for the market to quickly test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.70. If the rally does not end here October cattle could be headed to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 86.10. Near term support is at last week's low of 80.75. A break below it could allow the market to visit big technical support between the daily August low of 79.55, the daily December low of 79.55, and the daily November low of 79.30. A break to new contract lows could smash October cattle down to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 76.25. Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is near overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally until mid- September and then move sideways for the second half of the month. Commercials are sitting on the largest net long position since September 2000. Large traders (hedge funds) covered a sizeable amount of their net short position and they are now the least bearish since mid-June. Small traders are neutral.

October feeders find near term resistance between the daily August high of 111.02 and the daily May high of 111.30. A break out to new highs could send feeders running to this year's weekly high of 113.92 or the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 114.25. If the market does not back down from this price barrier it could challenge the all-time high of 111.70. Near term support is at last week's low of 107.75 (October feeders have made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above almost every trading day for the last month. If this near term support fails feeders could decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.02 or even the daily August low of 105.60. If the market does not stabilize in this area it may plummet to the daily July low of 102.95. Open Interest recently hit a five and a half year high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are nearing overbought territory on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should rally in September. Commercial interests are holding their largest net short position since December of 2002! Large traders are holding their largest net long position since mid-May. Small traders are the least bearish since January.

October lean hogs find near term resistance at the daily August high of 65.07. Further resistance is at the contract high of 65.65. A break out above to new highs should clear the way for the market to test the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 68.05. If the rally does not end hear October hogs could keep heading for the weekly August high of 70.22. Near term support is found at last week's low of 61.60 (October hogs have made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above almost every trading day for the last month. A break below this near term could send hogs down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 60.70. Further support is at the daily August low of 58.00 followed closely by major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 57.97. Open Interest is almost at a six month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are overbought on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to trade higher in September. Commercials are selling out of their record net long position and are now the least bullish in three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short position since mid-May. Small traders are holding a record size net short position.

Grains - November soybeans finds near term resistance at last week's high of $6.222 (November beans have made lower weekly highs for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If market can break out above a previous weekly high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average beans could could stage a significant short-covering rally. If this occurs expect November soybeans to first test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $6.622. If the rally does not stop here the market could run up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.034 followed closely by the daily August high of $7.09. After that it may test the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $7.326. Near term support is at last week's low of $5.90. If this low is broken beans may decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $5.526. Failure to stabilize could result in a test of the weekly double bottom between this year's weekly low of $4.984 and last year's weekly low of $5.01. Open Interest is at a three and a half month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybeans are oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should rally in the first week of September and then trend lower for the rest of the month. Then the beans usually trade in a choppy sideways range in August. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in three months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since mid-May. Small traders are still a bit bearish on beans.

December soy meal finds near term resistance at last week's high of $191.20 (December meal has made lower weekly highs for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If meal can break out above the previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $206.60. Further resistance is located at the daily August high of $219.50 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $220.50. If meal does not reverse at this level it could make it's way up to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $230.40 or even the daily July high of $233.00. Near term support is located between the daily August low of $184.10, the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $181.50, and the weekly August low of $181.10. If support is not established in this area meal could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $166.20. Open Interest is sitting flat at multi-year lows. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybean meal is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, soy meal should rally in the first week of September and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since early April. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since mid-May. Small traders are the least bullish in six months.

December bean oil may be signaling that the down trend is over for now. After testing support at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement, the market reversed back up and broke out above a two week high. December bean oil also made a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in nearly a month. Also, the 9-day Moving Average looks poised to close back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since late July. If December bean oil rallies above last week's high of 23.60 it could quickly test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 25.07. Further resistance is at the daily August high of 25.52. After that look for December bean oil to take on the daily July high of 26.48 or even the contract high of 26.84. Near term support is clustered between the daily August low of 22.20, the daily May low of 22.07, the daily April low of 21.95, and the daily March low of 21.80. If this support levee breaks bean oil could plummet to the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 21.07. Open Interest sitting flat at a low level. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to move sideways to slightly higher thru most of September and then drop in the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since mid-May. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral to bearish.

December corn finds near term support at the current contract low of $2.15. A close below it could keep corn on the path to this year's current weekly low of $1.942 or last year's weekly low of $1.91. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.224 (December corn has made lower weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If corn close back above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could stage a bear market rally and test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.372. If the rally does not end here December corn may test the daily August high of $2.51 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.506. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2.606. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-July. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways in the first week of September and then trend lower for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since mid-May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral to bearish on corn.

December rice finds near term resistance at the daily August high of 7.260. A rally above it should take the market right on up to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.420. If the market can clear this level it should attempt a rally to the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 7.67. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 6.790. Further support is at the daily August low of 6.690 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 6.660. If the decline does not end here expect November rice to test the contract low of 6.50 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 6.470. A break to new contract lows could pressure this market down to this year's current weekly low of 6.110. Open Interest is flat. Seasonally, rice should move higher in September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since early March. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since late March. Small traders are still holding the biggest net short position since October.

December oats finds near term resistance at last week's high of $1.57 (December oats have made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If oats can take out the previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1.634. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.73. Near term support is at the daily August low of $1.482. A break below it could keep this market moving toward the contract low of $1.412. If December oats break to a new contract low it could decline to this year's current weekly low of $1.27. Open Interest is at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are oversold on the daily chart. Oats have a seasonal tendency to rally in the first week of September and then move lower for the rest of the month. Commercials are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral to bullish. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since December 2003.

September wheat finds near term resistance at last week's high of $3.31 (December wheat made lower weekly highs for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If this market can close above the previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could rally to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.484 in confluence with the daily August high of $3.50. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.61. Near term support is at the daily August low of $3.164 in confluence with the contract low of $3.15. If December wheat makes a new contract low it could decline to the weekly May low of $2.964. Open Interest is at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways in September. Commercial interests increased the size of their near-record size net long position. Large traders increased the size of their near-record size net short position. Small traders are holding a huge net short wheat position.

Softs - December coffee finds near term support at the daily August low of 94.90 in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 94.90. (Coffee has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since November of 2003). A close below this support level could cause the market to spill to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 78 cents. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the 2004 low of 64 cents or the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 62 cents. Near term resistance is at the daily August high of 113.00 (December coffee has made lower monthly highs for five consecutive months) followed by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114.80. If the market can make it past this price level it could rally to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 119.70. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 127.10 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 127.30. Open Interest is at the lowest level since last November. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is still near oversold on the weekly chart. Seasonally, coffee should move sideways to lower in September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since October. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

December cocoa finds near term resistance between last week's two month high of $1,555 and the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,567. Further resistance is at the daily June high of $1,620. If the rally does not end here December cocoa may attempt to visit the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,690. Near term support is at the contract low of $1,370. A break to new lows could put the market on track for the weekly August low of $1,316 or even the 2004 double bottom on the weekly chart at $1,299 and $1,300. If the market does not find price support here it could plunge to the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1,048. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to rally in September. Commercial are holding a sizable net short position. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since June. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since mid-March.

December sugar finds near term daily resistance at the contract high of 10.35. A strong break out to new highs again should allow this market to run up to the weekly 2000 high of 11.40 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 11.45. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 11.73. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.54 followed closely by the daily August low of 9.50 (October sugar has made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months). A break below 9.50 could cause a decline to the daily July low of 9.10 followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.05. Further support may not be found again until the daily June low of 8.70 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 8.69. Open Interest is still at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move sideways in September. Commercials increased the size of their record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) increased the size of their record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in five months.

November orange juice finds near term daily resistance at last week's high of 93.95 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If this market can close above the previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.30. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 101.35 followed closely by the daily August high of 102.50. Near term support is at the daily August low of 88.10. A break below it could send the market down to the weekly August low of 85.10. If support is not established here the market could plunge to this year's current weekly low of 77 cents or even the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 74.15. Open Interest is at the lowest level in over two years. Seasonally, OJ should drop sharply for the first half of September and then rally sharply for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since October of 2003! Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since June of 2004. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position in over two years.

December cotton finds near term daily resistance at last week's high of 51.10. A rally above it could allow the market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 52 cents. If the market can make it past this level it could rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 54.61. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 56.48 followed by the daily July high of 57.20. Near term support is at the daily August low of 47.76. A break below this low could send it to the weekly August low of 46 cents. If this low does not hold expect a decline to this year's weekly low of 42.40 followed closely by last year's weekly low of 42 cents. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-May. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for most of September and then decline sharply in the last week of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since the beginning of the year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2004 Pearce Financial, LLC
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