The December NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at the September high of 1634.00. Further resistance is at the contract high of 1646.50. If the market can break out to new highs it could run to the weekly January 2002 high of 1717.00 or the weekly December 2001 high of 1738.00. Further resistance is at the psychological 1800 mark. Near term support is at the September low of 1564.00 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1564.00. If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to technical support clustered between the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1513.00, the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1510.00, and the daily July low of 1511.00. Further support is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1487.90 (as measured between this year's weekly low of 1397.00 and the weekly August high of 1635.00). If the NASDAQ 100 does not stabilize here it could plunge to this year's current weekly low of 1397.00. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is still overbought on the monthly chart. The NASDAQ 100 should establish an important low in mid-October and then stage a sharp rally. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral to bearish on the NASDAQ 100. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in over six months.

Interest rates - December T-bonds find important technical support clustered between the daily September low of 114-00, the weekly August low of 113-24, the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113-16, and the daily August low of 113-11, and the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113-06. If this huge support level fails, T-bonds could make a swan dive to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16 or this year's current weekly low of 109-00. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 115-13 (T-bonds have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed below for nearly a month straight. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-21. If the market can clear this retracement it could muster enough strength to test the daily September high of 118-10. A break out above it could send the market right on up to contract high of 119-00. A break out to new contract highs should send T-bonds to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 119-24 and the June high on the monthly chart at 119-30. A clean break out above this high could put the market back on track for it's destination to the 2003 all-time high of 124-10. The December NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term daily support at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 4-055 premium T-bonds in confluence with the September low of 4-02 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-02.5 premium T-bonds. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 5-07.5 premium T-bonds. A rally above it could allow the spread to climb back up to the all-time high of 5-30 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the psychological 7-00 mark. Open Interest is at a two and a half month low. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to decline for the first half of October and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are neutral on bonds. Large traders are neutral as well. Small traders are holding a huge net short position.

December T-notes find near term support at the daily September low of 109-27 in confluence with the weekly August low of 109-27. Further support is at the daily August low of 109-015. If December T-notes break below this low they could drop to the major double bottom on the weekly chart at this year's current weekly low of 107-265 and last year's weekly low of 107-255. A break below it could send the market spiraling down to the 105-00 area. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 110-19. Further resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-18. If the market can clear this retracement it could rally another point to the daily September high of 112-20 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 112-21. Further resistance is at the contract high of 113-205. A break out to new contract highs could send the market to the weekly June high of 114-16. If T-notes do not stop here they could accelerate the run to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-005. Further resistance is located between last year's weekly high of 117-31 and the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 118-08. Open Interest is now at the lowest level it has been all year. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to decline for the first half of October and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding one of their smallest net long positions this year. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are the least bearish in months.

International bonds - December Canadian 10-year bonds find near term support at the daily September low of 114.77. A break below this level should allow the market to drop to the weekly August low of 114.29. If this low is broken the market could easily decline another point to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113.33 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 106.12 and this year's all-time weekly high of 117.78). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 115.51. (CGBs have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for the last four weeks). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.28. If the market can clear this retracement it should hit the contract high of 117.21. A rally above it could allow the market to test the all-time high on the weekly chart at 117.78. A break out above these highs should allow CGBs to challenge psychological numbers such as 119.00, 120.00, etc.  December Euro bunds find near term support at the daily September low of 122.38. (Bunds have made higher monthly lows for five out of the last six months). Further support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 121.70. If the decline does not end here the market could plunge to the daily August low of 120.27 in confluence with last year's all-time high of 120.00 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at the contract high of 124.01. Further resistance is at the all-time high of 124.60 on the weekly chart. If the market continues to make new all-time highs expect it to go right on up to the psychological 125 mark followed by the psychological 126 area.  December London long gilts find near term support at the daily September low of 112.48. (December gilts have made higher monthly lows for five out of the last six months). Further support is at the daily August low of 111.66. If this low is broken the market could drop to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.95 in confluence with the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.91. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 113.24. (Gilts have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks). A rally above it could allow the market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.64. Further resistance is at the daily contract high of 114.35 followed closely by this year's current weekly high of 114.72. If December gilts can clear this price barrier look for a surge to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 117.16 followed by the weekly December 2003 high of 117.40.  December Australian 10-year bonds find near term support at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.59 in confluence with last week's new contract low of 94.58. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.32. Near term resistance is located at last week's high of 94.82 (Aussie bonds have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed below for nearly a month straight. A rally above it could allow the market to visit the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.85. Further resistance is at the contract high of 95.02. If December Australian 10-year bonds hit a new contract high expect the market to quickly challenge the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 95.115. Further resistance may not be found again until last year's weekly high of 95.45. December JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term support between last week's new multi-month low of 137.36 and this year's current weekly low of 137.22. If these lows are taken out look for the market to hit the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 136.29. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 134.91. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 138.86 (December JGBs have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three consecutive weeks) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 138.85. A rally above this level could allow this market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.78. Further resistance is at the daily September high of 140.21. If this high is taken out December JGBs could make a run for the contract high of 141.27 followed closely by the double top on the weekly chart at this year's high of 141.35. If the market clears this wall of resistance it could be catapulted to the August 2003 reaction high of 142.50 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 142.50.

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term resistance at last week's two month high of 89.60. Further resistance is at the contract high of 90.30 followed closely by this year's current high of 90.66. If the greenback makes a new high this year expect it to rally up to last year's high of 92.50. Further resistance for the buck is at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Near term support is at last week's low of 88.75 (the US dollar index has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for three consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has consistently closed above since early September. A break below this near term support could cause a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 87.27. Further support is at the daily September low of 85.83. If this low is violated expect a sudden drop to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.37. Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 82.66. Open Interest recently hit a fifteen month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the US dollar is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should decline for the first half of October and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in over two months. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position in nearly two months. Small traders are neutral.

The Canadian dollar recently hit the highest level since January of 1992! If the market takes out the current contract high of .8650 it could keep moving toward the 1991 high of .8906 or the psychological 90 cent level. Near term support is at last week's low of .8480 (the Canadian dollar has made higher weekly lows for eight out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average for nearly two months straight). If the market closes below last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average the "looney" could end it's stellar bull run and make a quick decline to last month's low of .8376 (The Canadian dollar has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for the last four months) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8363. If the decline does not end here the market could be headed to the daily August low of .8192 followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8186. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early August. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to rally in the first week of October and then move sideways in a choppy range for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in eleven months. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position in a year. Small traders are still holding a huge net long position.

The Australian dollar finds near term support at the daily September low of .7500. Further support is at the daily August low of .7424. If this low is broken the market could drop to this year's current weekly low of .7336 followed closely by the contract low of .7321. Failure to stabilize here could cost the market another penny and send it down to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212. If 72 cents does not give good support the market could be on it's way to the psychological 70 cent mark. Near term resistance is clustered between the daily September high of .7730, the daily June high of .7730, the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7741, the weekly September high of .7461, and the weekly June high of .7470. If the Aussie can break thru this price barricade expect it to quickly hit the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .7852. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of .7992. Open Interest is flat at low levels. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to rally in early October and then decline for the remainder of the month. Commercials are neutral to bearish on the Aussie. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are slightly bullish

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar spread finds near term resistance at the current three year high of the daily August high of .1026 (about ten and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .1153 (about eleven and a half of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. If this retracement is exceeded the spread could be on it's way to the psychological fifteen cent mark or even the all-time weekly closing high of .1538 (about fifteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is at the daily September low of .0783 (just under eight cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .0741 (just under seven and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread closes below this level it could pull back to the daily August low of .0586 (just under six cents) premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0564 (about five and two-thirds of a cent) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound finds near term support at last week's two month low of .17548. Further support is clustered between the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7266, this year's current low on the weekly chart at 1.7242, and the contract low of 1.7227. If the December pound hits a new contract low it could immediately test the psychological 1.70 mark. If sterling does not stabilize here look for a decline to the psychological 1.65 level. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.7775. (The December British pound has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). A rally above a previous week's high could allow this market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8110. Further resistance is at the daily September high of 1.8457. If this high is taken out look for the market to visit the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8637. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.90 mark in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 1.9017. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is oversold on the daily chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in October. Commercials are getting back to a neutral stance on the pound. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are also neutral.

The December Swiss franc finds near term support at the daily September low of .7750 in confluence with the contract low of .7745. A break to new contract lows should allow the December Swissie to test this year's current weekly low of .7680. If this low is broken the market could quickly drop to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7592 or even last year's low of .7566. If the market does not stabilize in this area it could free fall to the weekly November 2003 reaction low of .7247. Near term resistance is at last week's high .7834 (the December Swiss franc has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has consistently closed below since early September. A break out above this close resistance level could allow the market to bounce up to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8052. Further resistance is at the daily September high of .8239. If this high is taken out look for the market to run to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8429. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swiss franc is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves sideways to lower in October. Commercial interests are holding a near record net long position. Large traders are holding a near record net short position. Small traders are holding a large net short position.

The Euro currency finds near term support between the daily September low of 1.2023 and the contract low of 1.1944. A break to new contract lows should allow the December Euro to test this year's current weekly low of 1.1900. If this low is broken the market could plummet to last year's low of 1.1745. After that it could drop swiftly to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Near term resistance is at last week's high 1.2142 (the December Euro has made lower weekly highs for the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has consistently closed below since early September. If this near term resistance level is conquered expect the market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2410. Further resistance is at the daily September high of 1.2650. If this high is taken out look for the Euro currency to surge to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3004. Open Interest recently hit a five month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Euro should decline in October. Commercial interests are neutral on the Euro right now. Large traders are neutral as well. Small traders are also neutral.

The Japanese yen finds near term support between last week's new contract low of .008870 and this year's current weekly low of .008844. Further support is at last year's weekly low of .008710. If this low is broken the yen could decline to the psychological .008500 mark. Further support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008351. Near term resistance is at last week's high .009003 (the December yen has made lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has consistently closed below since early September. If this near term resistance level is exceeded the yen could rally to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009130. Further resistance is at the daily September high of .009291. A strong close above this high could allow the December Japanese yen to run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009474. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-April. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to rally sharply in the first half of October and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in nearly three months. Large traders are still holding a near record net short position. Small traders are neutral.

Metals - December gold finds near term resistance at the current contract high of $477.80. If the market takes out this nearly eighteen year high, look for it to challenge a big technical resistance barrier between the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $490.30 (as measured between the 1980 high of $875 and the multi-decade double bottom low of $252.50), the psychological $500 mark, and the 1987 spike high of $502.30. Near term support is at last week's low of $461.20 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average for nearly a month straight). If the market closes below last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average expect December gold to decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $442.70. If the market does not stabilize here it could quickly hit the daily August low of $433.50 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $433.20. Further support is clustered between the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $425.00 (gold has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in four years!), the daily July low of $424.20, and the December gold contract low of $421.00. A weak close below this major support area would be a major confirmation that the four and a half year bull market in gold is DEAD. If this occurs expect gold to plunge to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $389.40. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways in the first half of October and then decline rapidly in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a near record net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) increased the size of their record net long position. Small traders are neutral.

December silver finds near term resistance clustered between the weekly March high of $7.64, the daily September high of $7.645, and the daily June high of $7.69. A strong close above these highs could launch December silver up to last December's high of $8.19 or even last year's multi-year high of $8.31. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $7.285 followed by the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early September). If the market closes below the Fibonacci .382 retracement and the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average December silver could immediately test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.065. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the daily August low of $6.705 or the daily February low of $6.675. Further support is at this year's low on the weekly chart at $6.35. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is nearing overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should decline in October. Commercials are holding the largest net short position in nearly three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since the end of June. Small traders are neutral.

December copper finds resistance at last week's new contract high of 175.35. Further resistance is at the new all-time high on the weekly chart at 188.20. If copper continues to make new highs it may be on it's way to the psychological two dollar mark. Near term support is clustered between the daily September low of 157.75 (December copper has made higher monthly highs and made higher monthly lows for the last four months), the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 156.95, and the daily August low of 156.00. If this support level cracks look for a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 145.60 in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 145.00. (Copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in over two years). If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to the current major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 139.40 or even the daily July low of 136.30. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is still overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move sideways to lower in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in nearly three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in nearly four months. Small traders are neutral.

Energies - November crude oil finds near term resistance at the all-time high of $70.80. A break out above it could send the market right to the $75 mark. If the run does not stop here expect crude oil to trade at the big psychological barrier at $80. Near term support is clustered between the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has only closed below once since January, the daily September low of $62.93 (November crude oil has only broken a previous month's low once this year and twice in the last nineteen months), and the daily August low of $62.63. If crude oil slips below this support level it could drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $58.29 followed closely by the daily July low of $58.00. Failure to stabilize here could result in oil tanking to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average just above $50.00. (Crude oil has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for two years). Open Interest is almost at a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is still near overbought on the monthly chart but also nearing oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should rally in the first half of October and then decline rapidly in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in nearly four months. Large traders are holding the largest net short position in two years! Small traders are neutral.

November Unleaded Gas finds resistance at the current contract high of 221.00. A break out above it could easily allow the market to test the psychological $250 mark. Further resistance is at the weekly August spike high of 292.50. Near term support is at last week's low of 189.20. (November gasoline has only broken a previous week's low once in the last ten weeks). Further support is at the daily September low of 176.50. (November gasoline has only broken a previous month's low once in the last nine months). If this low is broken expect a decline to the daily August low of 164.00 or the daily April high of 163.00 (old resistance). Open Interest is at the lowest level since early June. Seasonally, gasoline should rally for most of October and then decline in the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in nearly four months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since Memorial Day. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

November natural gas finds near term resistance at the current contract high of 14.550. Further resistance is at the psychological 15.000 mark. After that look for a target in the psychological 16.000 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 12.200 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for two consecutive months). If the market closes below last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average, natural gas could test more support between the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 11.365 and the daily September low of 11.300. (November natural gas has only broken a previous month's low once in the last six months). Further support is located at the huge gap on the daily chart between 11.000 and 10.450. If this gap is filled and the market fails to reverse direction it could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.400. Open Interest is at the highest level since May of 2002. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to rally for most of October and then decline in the last week. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in nearly three months. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position in two months. Small traders are still holding a huge net long position.

Meats - December live cattle finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 90.70. Further resistance is at this year's high on the weekly chart at 94.05. If the market can break this high it could rally to the psychological 100 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 88.10 (December cattle has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late August). If the market breaks below last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average, December cattle could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 85.62. If the market does not stabilize here expect a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 84.25 followed closely by the daily September low of 84.00. Further support is at the daily August low of 82.50. Open Interest is at a six month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally until mid-October and then decline for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in nearly four months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since the end of May. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in five months.

November feeders find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 115.20. Further resistance is at the weekly September high of 116.20. If feeders exceed this high expect a test of the all-time high of 118.70. Near term support is at last week's low of 112.65 (November feeders have made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last two months). If feeders close below last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a sell off to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.87. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.57. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should rally in early October and then decline sharply for the rest of the month. Commercial interests increased the size of their largest net short position since December of 2002! Large traders are holding their largest net long position in over two years. Small traders are neutral to bearish.

December lean hogs find near term resistance at the current contract high of 63.87. Further resistance is at the weekly September high of 66.90. If this high is defeated December hogs should challenge the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 68.05. Near term support is found at last week's low of 62.00 (December hogs have made higher weekly lows for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly three months straight). If hogs drop below last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average this market could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 59.40. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 56.62. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are overbought on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to move sideways until mid-October and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in three and a half months. Large traders (hedge funds) are net long position for the first time since mid-May. Small traders increased the size of their record size net short position.

Grains - November soybeans finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of $5.564 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $5.526. If beans do not stabilize near this level the market could easily plummet to the weekly double bottom between this year's weekly low of $4.984 and last year's weekly low of $5.01. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $5.75 (November beans have made lower weekly highs for thirteen out of the last fourteen weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If market can close above a previous weekly high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average beans could stage a significant short-covering rally. The first technical resistance target would be the daily September high of $6.18. (November soybeans have made lower monthly highs for three consecutive months). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $6.38. If the rally does not end there the market could make an attempt to run the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.884. Open Interest is at a multi-month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybeans are oversold on the daily and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move sideways to lower in October. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in five and a half months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since mid-April. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since mid-May.

December soy meal finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of $168.80. Further support is at the weekly September low of $166.20 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $166.20. If the decline does not end here meal could test the weekly double bottom between this year's weekly low of $148.10 and last year's weekly low of $146.60. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $174.30 (December meal has made lower weekly highs for ten out of the last eleven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If meal can trade back above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could rally to the daily September high of $191.80. (December meal has made lower monthly highs for three consecutive months). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $197.10. A strong close above this price level may be a sign that December meal intends to challenge the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $214.70. Open Interest is almost back up to a three month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybean meal is oversold on the daily and monthly charts. Seasonally, soy meal establish an important low in early October an then move sideways to higher for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are the least bullish since mid-February.

December bean oil had been consolidating just below the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement before it blasted higher on the last trading day of September. A break below the daily September low of 22.10 could inspire another sell off and bring the market down to the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 21.07. Further support is at the contract low of 19.50. Near term resistance is located at the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 23.91 in confluence with the daily September high of 24.00. A break out above this price barrier could send the market on up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 25.03. Further resistance is at the daily August high of 25.52. Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is near oversold on the daily chart. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to drop in October. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since Spring. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since May. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position in nearly eight months.

December corn finds near term support at the new contract low of $2.024. Further support is located between this year's current weekly low of $1.942 and last year's weekly low of $1.91. After that corn may not find support until the 2001 low of $1.84 or even the 2000 decade low of $1.74. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.07 (December corn has made lower weekly highs for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over two months). If corn breaks out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could start a long overdue bear market rally and test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.294. If the rally does not end here December corn may test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.462. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move slightly higher in the first half of October and then move slightly lower for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position in four and a half months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are still neutral to bearish on corn.

November rice finds near term resistance between last week's three month high of 7.36 and the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.420. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 7.670. If the market makes it thru this barrier it could be headed to the contract high of at 7.990. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 6.830. Further support is at the double bottom on the daily chart at the contract low of 6.500. If November rice closes below this support level look for a further decline to this year's current weekly low of 6.110. Open Interest is at a six month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, rice should move slightly higher in the first half of October and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are the most bearish in three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since mid-March. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position in four months.

December oats finds near term resistance at the daily September high of $1.624 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1.626. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.724. If the market makes it past this level it may test the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1.794. Near term support is at the daily September low of $1.47. Further support is at the contract low of $1.412. If December oats make a new contract low the market could plunge to this year's current weekly low of $1.27. Open Interest is still near a one year low. Oats have a seasonal tendency to rally in the first half of October and then move sideways to lower for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in four months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in three months. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since July of 2003.

December wheat finds near term resistance at the daily September high of $3.53. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.61. If December wheat makes it past this level it could challenge the daily July high of $3.68. Near term support is at the gap on the daily chart between $3.40 and $3.354. If the gap is filled the market could pull back to the daily August low of $3.164 in confluence with the contract low of $3.15. If December wheat makes a new contract low it could plummet to the weekly May low of $2.964. Open Interest reached a new all-time high again. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move higher thru most of October and then decline in the last week of the month. Commercial interests sold just a fraction of their record size net long position. Large traders are holding a near-record size net short position. Small traders are holding a huge net short wheat position.

Softs - December coffee could go either way here. The market closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for the first time since November of 2003. If the market declines below the daily September low of 86.30 look for it to test the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 78 cents. Further support may not be found again until the 2004 low of 64 cents or the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 62 cents. On the other hand, December coffee closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in a month and a half and took out a previous week's high for the first time in a month. If coffee closes above last week's high of 95.00 and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-August the market could test technical resistance between the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 104.50 and the daily September high of 105.50. (December coffee has made lower monthly highs for six consecutive months). If the rally does not end here coffee could head on up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.95. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 123.80. Open Interest is at an eleven month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is oversold on the weekly chart. Seasonally, coffee should grind sideways to lower until it establishes an important seasonal low in late October. Commercials are holding a net long position for the first time in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since last September. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position in years.

December cocoa made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart last week when it broke down to a new contract low and then reversed to take out the previous week's high. This is bullish price action! Near term resistance is at last week's high of $1,444. Further resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,481. If the market can make it past this level it may challenge the daily September high of $1,575. Further resistance is at the daily June high of $1,620. Near term support is at last week's new contract low of $1,328. Further support is located at the weekly August low of $1,316 or even the 2004 double bottom on the weekly chart at $1,299 and $1,300. If cocoa does not establish a price support level here it could plunge to the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1,048. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to decline sharply in October. Commercial are neutral to bullish on cocoa. Large traders are neutral to bearish. Small traders are neutral.

March sugar finds near term daily resistance between last week's new multi-year high of 11.33 and the 2000 high of 11.40 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 11.45. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 11.73. If sugar makes it past this level look for it to test the 1997 high of 12.55. Near term support is at the daily September low of 10.31. (March sugar has higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for the last four weeks). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 10.17. A break below this level could cause a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.45. Open Interest is still high but it did pull back to where it was at the beginning of August. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move higher in October. Commercials continued to aggressively increase the size of their record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) rapidly increased the size of their record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since February.

November orange juice finds near term daily resistance between last week's nearly two month high of 102.40 and the daily August high of 102.50. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 104.95. If OJ exceeds this retracement it could be headed up to challenge the contract high of 109.50. Near term support is at last week's low of 99.30 (November orange juice has made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). A clean break below last week's low confirmed by the 9-day Moving Average closing back below the 18-day Moving Average could send OJ down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 93.55. Further support is at the daily August low of 88.10. Open Interest is at the lowest level since May of 2003. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is overbought on the daily and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should move sideways in a choppy trading range in October. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since October of 2003! Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since June of 2004. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since August of 2003.

December cotton finds near term daily resistance at last week's two and a half month high of 54.52 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 54.61. A rally above it could allow the market to test the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 56.48 or even the daily July high of 57.20. Near term support is located between last week's low of 50.47 (December cotton has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 50.34. If this support is breached the market could test the daily August low of 47.76. A break below this low could send it to the weekly August low of 46 cents. If this low is violated look for a nasty sell off to this year's weekly low of 42.40 followed closely by last year's weekly low of 42 cents. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is overbought on the daily chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move lower for most of October and then move sideways in the last week of the month. Commercials are neutral to bullish on cotton. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral to bearish. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2004 Pearce Financial, LLC
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