The December NASDAQ 100 triggered a Gap & Fill buy signal on October 19th as well. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1638.50. Further resistance is at the contract high of 1646.50. If the market reaches new highs look for a surge to the weekly January 2002 high of 1717.00 or the weekly December 2001 high of 1738.00. Further resistance is at the psychological 1800 mark. Near term support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1521.00 in confluence with the October low of 1523.00. Further support is at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1513.00 in confluence with the daily July low of 1511.00. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1487.90 (as measured between this year's weekly low of 1397.00 and the weekly August high of 1635.00). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 1397.00. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is still overbought on the monthly chart. The NASDAQ 100 should rally in November. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since March. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral to bearish on the NASDAQ 100. Small traders are still holding the largest net long position since March.

Interest rates - December T-bonds find near term support at last week's seven month low of 110-12. Further support is located between the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16 and this year's current weekly low of 109-00. If the decline does not end here T-bonds could plunge to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 106-22. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 112-11 (T-bonds have made lower weekly highs nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since September 15th). If the market can pop above last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average the bond market could start a quick ascent to the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114-01. Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-09. If the rally does not end here expect the market to test the December contract high of 119-00. A break out to new contract highs should take this market right on up to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 119-24 and the June high on the monthly chart at 119-30. If this price barrier is taken out this bull could surge to the 2003 all-time high of 124-10. The December NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term daily support at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-02.5 premium T-bonds in confluence with last week's low of 2-30 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the daily May low of 1-10 premium T-bonds. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 4-03 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 4-26 premium T-bonds. If the spread climbs above this retracement it could make it back up to the contract high of 5-30 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bonds are oversold on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to rally in November. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position that they have ever had before! Large traders are holding the largest net short position since June of 2004. Small traders are holding a new record size net short position.

December T-notes broke down to the lowest level since July of 2002! If last week's low of 107-155 is broken the market could immediately drop to the 105-00 area or test a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104-04 (as measured between the 2000 low of 93-215 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-01). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 108-22 (T-notes have made lower weekly highs nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since September 15th). If the market clears last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average notes could quickly test the October high of 110-02 followed closely by the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-05. Further resistance is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-26. After that T-notes may be on their way to the daily September high of 112-20 or the weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 113-00. Further resistance is at the contract high of 113-205. Open Interest is starting to pick up slightly. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that notes are oversold on the daily,weekly, and monthly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways to higher in November. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral.

International bonds - December Canadian 10-year bonds tested the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement in October. A break below last week's low of 112.98 could cause a huge sell off to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.57 or even this year's current weekly low of 110.04. A break below this level should allow the market to drop to the monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.15 (as measured between the 2000 low of 95.20 and this year's current all-time high of 117.78). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 113.60 (CGBs have made lower weekly highs for eight out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since September 15th). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average the market may rally to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114.60. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.59. After that look for a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 116.30.  December Euro bunds find near term support at last week's seven month low of 119.43. A close below it could pressure the market down to this year's current weekly low of 116.89 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.70 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 111.81 and this year's current all-time high of 124.60). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 120.68 (bunds have made lower weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month straight). If the market can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average the market may rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 122.26 followed by the October high of 122.71. If the rally does not end here the market could test the contract high of 124.01. Further resistance is at the all-time high of 124.60 on the weekly chart.  December London long gilts find near term resistance at last week's high of 112.71. A rally above it could take the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.15. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 113.68. Near term support is at the daily October low of 111.20. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.95 in confluence with the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.91. Failure to establish support in this price zone could result in a decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108.63 in confluence with year's current weekly low of 108.55.  December Australian 10-year bonds find near term support at last week's seven month low of 94.395. If the market does not stabilize here it could continue on it's path to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.32. Further support is at this year's current low on the weekly chart at 94.175. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 94.555 (Aussie bonds have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for eight out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-September). If the market can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average the market could immediately rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.635. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.78. If the rally does not end here Aussie bonds may be on their way back to the contract high of 95.02. If December Australian 10-year bonds hit a new contract high expect the market to quickly challenge the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 95.115. December JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term support at last week's fifteen month low of 135.90. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 134.91. If the market does not stabilize here it could hit the psychological 134 level. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 137.31. (December JGBs have made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks). A rally above it could send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 137.95 in confluence with the daily October high at 137.96. After that JGBs could rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.22. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 140.12 followed closely by the daily September high of 140.21.

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term resistance at last week's one and a half year high of 91.27. A close above it should send the greenback running to last year's high of 92.50. Further resistance for the buck is at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Near term support is at last week's low of 89.26 (the US dollar index has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has above the 18-day Moving Average every day except for one since September 16th). If the market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market may drop right to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 87.91. Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 87.15. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the daily September low of 85.83. If this low does not hold the buck could drop to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.60. Open Interest recently hit a four and a half month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the US dollar is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move slightly lower in November. Commercial interests are holding a new record size net short position. Large traders are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are neutral.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at the current contract high of .8650. A break out above it could send the "looney" flying to the 1991 high of .8906 or the psychological 90 cent level. Near term support is at the October low of 84 cents. (The Canadian dollar has made higher monthly lows for five consecutive months). A break below it could send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8363. Further support is located between the daily August low of .8192 and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8186. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to decline in November. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in a year. Large traders are still holding the biggest net long position in a year. Small traders are still holding a huge net long position.

The Australian dollar finds near term support at last week's thirteen month low of .7296. Further support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212. If the Aussie dollar does not stabilize near 72 cents it could plunge to the psychological 70 cent mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .7508. (The Australian dollar has made lower weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks). A rally above it could send the market up to the October high of .7622. If this high is exceeded the market could face further resistance clustered between the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7726, the daily September high of .7730, the daily June high of .7730, the weekly September high of .7761, and the weekly June high of .7770. If the Aussie does not stop here look for it to quickly hit the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .7843. Open Interest is flat at low levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to rally in November. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since September 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are the least bullish since July.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar spread finds near term resistance at the new three year high of .1132 (about eleven and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .1153 (about eleven and a half of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread exceeds this level it could be headed to the psychological fifteen cent mark or even the all-time weekly closing high of .1538 (about fifteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is at the daily October low of .0921 (about nine and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is found between the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .0806 (just over eight cents) premium Canadian dollar and the daily September low of .0783 (just under eight cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the decline does not end here the spread could decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0605 (about six cents) premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the daily August low of .0586 (just under six cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound finds near term support at the October low of .17377. Further support is clustered between the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7266, this year's current low on the weekly chart at 1.7242, and the contract low of 1.7227. If the December pound hits a new contract low it could immediately test the psychological 1.70 mark. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the psychological 1.65 level. Near term resistance is at the October high of 1.7894. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8044. If sterling can make it past this level it may challenge the daily September high of 1.8457. A break out above this high could send the market to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8637. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.90 mark in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 1.9017. Open Interest is at a four month low. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move sideways to higher in November. Commercials are holding a very sizable net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a huge net short position. Small traders are bearish on sterling.

The December Swiss franc finds near term support at last week's one and a half year low of .7671. If these lows are broken the Swissie could quickly drop to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7592 or even last year's low of .7566. If the market does not establish support in this area it could plunge to the weekly November 2003 reaction low of .7247. Near term resistance is at the October high .7943. A break out above this high could send the market to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8022. If the rally does not end here look for the Swiss franc to test the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8137 or even the daily September high of .8239. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8426. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swiss franc is oversold on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves slightly lower in November. Commercial interests have begun covering some of their record net long position but they are still very bearish. Large traders are starting to sell out of their record net short position. Small traders are still holding a large net short position.

The Euro currency finds near term support at last week's one and a half year low of 1.1829. If this low does not hold the market should tag last year's low of 1.1745. Further technical support may not be found again until the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Near term resistance is at the October high 1.2249. A strong close above it could take the market back up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2539 or even the daily September high of 1.2650. If this high is taken out look for the Euro currency to surge to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2977. Open Interest is still low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is oversold on the weekly chart. Seasonally, the Euro should rally in November. Commercial interests are neutral on the Euro right now. Large traders are neutral as well. Small traders are pretty bearish on the Euro.

The Japanese yen finds near term support at last week's twenty-six month low of .008490. Further support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008351. If the market does not stabilize here it could test the psychological .008000 mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high .008704 (the December yen has made lower weekly highs for ten out of the last eleven weeks and lower weekly lows for eight consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last two months). If the market can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average the yen could immediately rally to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008796. Bigger resistance is spotted at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .009015. If this near term resistance level is taken out look for the yen to make a run for the daily September high of .009291. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways to slightly lower in November. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since mid-June. Large traders are holding a new record size net short position. Small traders are neutral.

Metals - December gold broke a previous month's low for the first time since May. A close below last week's low of $456.10 could smash the market right down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $444.40. Further support is clustered between the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $434.10, the daily August low of $433.50, and the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $431.90 (gold has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in four years!). If the decline does not end here look for December gold to plummet to the contract low of $421.00. Near term resistance is at the current contract high of $482.20. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $490.30 (as measured between the 1980 high of $875 and the multi-decade double bottom low of $252.50). If gold does not slow down here look for it to challenge the 1987 spike high of $502.30. Open Interest is not too far from the all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that gold should decline in November. Commercials covered some of their record net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) sold just a small amount of their record net long position. Small traders are still neutral.

December silver finds near term resistance at the double top on the daily chart between the October 11th high of $7.955 and the October 27th high of $7.945. A break out above it should send the market to last December's high of $8.19 or even last year's multi-year high of $8.31. Near term support is at last week's low of $7.41. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.18. If this retracement does not support the market December silver could quickly test the psychological seven dollar mark. After that December silver may not find support again until the daily August low of $6.705 or the daily February low of $6.675. Further support is at this year's low on the weekly chart at $6.35. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. Seasonally, silver should decline in November. Commercials are holding the largest net short position in five months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since June. Small traders are neutral.

December copper finds resistance at the current contract high of 185.80. Further resistance is at the all-time high on the weekly chart at 188.20. If copper continues to make new highs it may spike up to the psychological two dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 178.30 (December copper has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-September). If the market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average copper could fall to the daily October low of 172.25. (December copper has made higher monthly highs and made higher monthly lows for the last four months). If last month's low is broken copper could be in big trouble. If this happens expect December copper to quickly test the daily September low of 157.75 or the daily August low of 156.00. Further support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 150.10 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in over two years) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 149.60. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is still overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to rally sharply in November. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

Energies - December crude oil finds near term support between the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $59.06 (as measured between the weekly December low of $40.06 and the contract high of $70.80), last week's low of $58.75, and the daily July low of $58.30. If this support zone is broken crude oil could slide to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average just above $52.50 (crude oil has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for two years) or even the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $51.80. Near term resistance is at last week's high $61.85 (December crude oil has made lower weekly highs for eight out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average crude oil could immediately hit the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $63.35. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $66.20 followed closely by the daily October high of $66.50. If last month's high is exceeded December crude oil may be ready to challenge the all-time high of $70.85. A break out above it could send the market right to the $75 mark. If the run does not stop here expect crude oil to trade at the big psychological barrier at $80. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is now oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move slightly lower in November. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in over two years! Large traders are holding the largest net short position in two years! Small traders are holding the largest net short position in five months.

December Unleaded Gas finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of 155.25. Further support is at the monthly October low of 150.50 followed closely by the monthly 18-bar Moving Average just at 149.76. (Gasoline has closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average only once in the last two years). Failure to stabilize here could send the market down to the daily May low of 131.60 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 131.07. Near term resistance is at last week's high 164.50 (December unleaded gasoline has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If the market can exceed a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average expect a rally back to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 174.83. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 186.92. If the rally does not end here December unleaded gasoline could be headed up to the contract high of 206.50. Open Interest is at the lowest level since January of 2004! The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is oversold on the daily chart and getting close to it on the weekly chart. Seasonally, gasoline should move slightly lower in November. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in five months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since June. Small traders the least bullish since June.

December natural gas broke a previous month's low for the first time since May. If last week's two month low of 11.215 is broken the market could plunge to the psychological 10.000 area or even the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.86. Further support is at psychological 9.000 mark. Near term resistance is at a big gap on the weekly chart between last week's high of 12.470 and 12.880. If this gap is filled the market may attempt a rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 13.710. Further resistance is at the contract high of 15.250. Open Interest is still at a very high level. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is now oversold on the daily chart. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to drop in the first week of November and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since Memorial Day. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are still holding a huge net long position.

Meats - December live cattle finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 92.45. Further resistance is at this year's high on the weekly chart at 94.05. A break out above this high should allow cattle to make a run for the psychological 100 mark. Near term support is at the October low of 88.80 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 88.65. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 86.30. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the daily August low of 82.50. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should stage a strong rally in November. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since August of 2003. Small traders are holding a record size net short position.

January feeders find near term resistance at the contract high of 115.00. A break out above it could send the market moving towards last month's new all-time high of 119.75. Near term support is at the October low of 111.40. (January feeders have made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months). A break below it could quickly drive feeders down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 108.90. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 105.10. Open Interest is flat at a very high level. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, feeders should rally in November. Commercial interests holding the smallest net short position since August. Large traders are starting to sell off some of their huge net long position. Small traders are bearish.

December lean hogs find near term support at the October low of 59.27. A drop below it should take the market right down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 57.30. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 55.05. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 62.35. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 63.20. If the rally does not end here December hogs may test the contract high of 65.65. A break out to new contract highs could allow the market to visit the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 68.05 followed closely by the monthly October high of 68.65. Open Interest is near the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are oversold on the weekly chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to move sharply higher in November. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since May. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral on hogs. Small traders are holding a record size net short position.

Grains - March soybeans finds near term support at the October and September lows of $5.74 and $5.73. A weak close below these lows could result in a decline to the contract low of $5.29. If March soybeans hit a new contract low expect a decline to the big weekly double bottom between this year's current weekly low of $4.984 and last year's weekly low of $5.01. Near term resistance is at the October high of $6.19. (March soybeans have made lower monthly highs for the last four months). A break out above last month's high could let the market rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $6.444. If the rally does not end there the market could be on it's way up the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.886. Open Interest is at the highest level since the summer. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybeans are oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should rally in the first week of November and then trade lower for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since April. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since mid-May.

December soy meal finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of $165.20. Further support is at the weekly October low of $162.30. If these lows are broken meal could test the weekly double bottom between this year's weekly low of $148.10 and last year's weekly low of $146.60. Near term resistance is last week's nearly two month high of $179.50. If this high is cleared the market could visit the daily September high of $191.80 or even the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $194.90. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $213.30. Open Interest is at a four month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybean meal is still near oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, soy meal usually rallies in the first week of November and then moves sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-February. Large traders (hedge funds) are now net long position for the first time since then. Small traders are the least bullish since mid-February.

December bean oil finds near term support at last week's low of 22.77. Further support is at the daily September low of 22.10. A drop below this could cause a decline to the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 21.07. Further support is at the contract low of 19.50. Near term resistance is located at the October high of 24.98 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 25.03. A break out above this price barrier could send the market on up to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 25.83. Further resistance is at the contract high of 26.84. Open Interest is at a four month high. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to rally for the first half of November and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since this summer. Large traders recently recorded the largest net long position since May of 2004. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

December corn finds near term support clustered between the contract low of $1.952, this year's current weekly low of $1.942, and last year's weekly low of $1.91. Further support is located at the 2001 low of $1.84. A break below this low should knock another dime off the market and send it to the 2000 decade low of $1.74. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $1.984 (December corn has made lower weekly highs for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over three months!). If corn closes above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could attempt to fill the chart gap created by the September crop report between $2.116 and $2156. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.25. If the market can break thru this barrier look for a rally to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.432. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move slightly lower in November. Commercials are neutral to bullish. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral to bearish. Small traders are still neutral to bearish as well.

January rice finds near term resistance at last week's nearly five month high of 7.800 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 7.800. If the market closes above this level it may be headed up to the contract high of at 8.100. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 7.380 followed closely by the October low of 7.320. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.120. If the market does not stabilize here expect a decline to the September low of 6.750 followed closely by the contract low of 6.700. Open Interest is at a four month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is nearing overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, rice should rally in the first week of November and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since Memorial Day. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since late June. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since May.

December oats finds near term support between last week's low of $1.584 and the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.566. Further support is at the daily September low of $1.47. If this low is broken the market could quickly decline to the contract low of $1.412. A break to new contract lows could smash December oats to this year's current weekly low of $1.27. Near term resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.724 in confluence with the daily October high of $1.726. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1.794. After that December oats may not find technical resistance until the contract high of $1.882. Open Interest recently hit the highest level since early August. Oats have a seasonal tendency to rally in the first half of November and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercials recently put on the biggest net short position since April. Large traders (hedge funds) recently put on the biggest net long position since May of 2004. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

December wheat finds near term support at last week's new contract low of $3.10. A close below it could cause a decline to the weekly August low of $3.006 followed closely by the weekly May low of $2.964. Further support is at last year's low of $2.824. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $3.204. (December wheat has made lower weekly highs for five consecutive weeks). A strong close above it could allow the market to rally up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.40. Further resistance is at the daily October high of $3.52 in confluence with the daily September high of $3.53. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.584. If December wheat can take out this retracement look for a run to the daily July high of $3.68. Open Interest continued to reach new all-time highs. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should decline in November. Commercial interests are holding a near-record size net long position. Large traders are holding a near-record size net short position. Small traders are holding a huge net short wheat position.

Softs - December coffee finds near term support at last week's low of 96.00. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.10. After that December coffee could test the contract low of 86.30. A break to new lows could result in a decline to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 78 cents. Further support may not be found again until the 2004 low of 64 cents or the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 62 cents. Near term resistance is at the October high of 106.80. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.50. If December coffee can clear this retracement look for it to test the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.95. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 123.80. Open Interest is sitting flat at an eleven month low. Seasonally, coffee should rally in the first half of November and then decline for the rest of the month. After turning net long for the first time in a year, Commercials are now selling the coffee market short again. Large traders (hedge funds) turned slightly net long on coffee again. They are the most bullish that they have been since mid-August. Small traders are bearish on coffee.

December cocoa finds near term support at the contract low of $1,328. Further support is located at the weekly August low of $1,316 or even the 2004 double bottom on the weekly chart at $1,299 and $1,300. If cocoa does not hold well level here it could plummet to the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1,048. Near term resistance is at the October high of $1,428. A break out above it could send cocoa on up to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,481. Further resistance is at the daily September high of $1,575. If this high is exceeded look for the market to make a run to the daily June high of $1,620. Open Interest is now at a seven month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to rally sharply in the first half of November and then decline into an important seasonal low at the end of the month. Commercial are neutral to bullish on cocoa. Large traders are neutral to bearish. Small traders are neutral.

March sugar looks as though it has ended the bull run. The market broke below a three week low for the first time since May and the 9-day Moving Average closed back below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in over two months. Near term support is at the October low of 11.12. (March sugar has higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for five consecutive months). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 10.53 followed by the September 21st spike low of 10.31. If this low is broken March sugar could decline to more technical support at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.37 in confluence with last year's weekly high of 9.37 (old resistance) and the weekly January high of 9.33 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at the contract high of 11.91. A break out to new highs again could set the market back on course for the 1997 high of 12.55. Open Interest is still high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is overbought on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move higher thru most of November and then break lower at the end of the month. Commercials covered just a tiny fraction of their record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) sold just a small amount of their record size net long position. Small traders are holding a big net long position.

January orange juice finds near term daily resistance at last week's new contract high of 123.35. Further resistance is at the weekly 1998 high of 131.95. A break out above this high could clear the path for OJ to challenge the 1996 high of 138.75. Near term support is at last week's low of 116.60 (January orange juice has made higher weekly lows for ten consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for two months). A break down below a previous week's low in addition to the 9-day Moving Average closing back below the 18-day Moving Average could pull the rug out from under the market and take OJ down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.90. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 103.20. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-July. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should move rally into mid-November and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding their biggest net short position in three months. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position since July. Small traders are still holding about the smallest net long position since August of 2003.

December cotton finds near term support at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 51.60 in confluence with last week's low of 51.30. A break below this level should allow the market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 49.91. Further support is at the August low of 47.76. A break below this low could send it to the weekly August low of 46 cents. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 52.99. (December cotton has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 55.32. A rally above it could allow the market to test the October high of 57.80. Open Interest recently reached the highest level since mid-April. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in a choppy trading range in November. Commercials are neutral to bearish on cotton. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2004 Pearce Financial, LLC
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