The March NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance between last week's new contract high of 1728.00 and the weekly December 2001 high of 1738.00. Further resistance is at the psychological 1800 mark. After that the market may be on it's way to the psychological 2000 area. Near term support is located at last week's low of 1691.50 (the March NASDAQ 100 has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market takes out a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1649.30. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1600.70. If the NASDAQ 100 does not stabilize here it could plummet to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1541.00 in confluence with the daily October low of 1541.50. If this low is broken the market could decline right to the psychological 1500 mark. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The NASDAQ 100 should move sideways to slightly higher in December. Commercial interests turned slightly net short position again but they are still a lot less bearish than they were two months ago. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position in eleven months. Small traders are net short on this market for the first time since June.

Interest rates - March T-bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 113-12. Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114-01. A close above this marker should allow room for a rally to the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-09. If the rally does not end here T-bonds could be headed for the March contract high of 118-14 or even the weekly September high of 118-21. If this price barrier is broken the market could rally up to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 119-24 and the weekly June high of 119-30. Near term support is at last week's low of 111-15 followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-12. Further support is clustered between the daily November low of 110-04, the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16, and this year's current weekly low of 109-00. If T-bonds do not establish support in this area they could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 106-22. The March NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term daily resistance between last week's one month high of 3-28 premium T-bonds and the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 4-015 premium T-bonds. If the spread can make it past this level it could climb up to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 4-245 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 5-09 premium T-bonds. Near term daily support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-08 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the daily November low of 2-28 premium T-bonds. A break below this low could cause the spread to decline to the psychological 1-00 level. Open Interest dropped back down to where it was in October. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to rally in December. Commercial interests are holding a record size net long position. Large traders are holding a huge net short position. Small traders are holding a record size net short position.

March T-notes find near term resistance at last week's one month high of 109-12. Further resistance is at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average in confluence with the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-05. If T-notes can close above this level they could stage a rally to the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-26. Further resistance is at the March contract high of 112-30. A break out to new contract highs could send March T-notes soaring to the weekly June high of 114-16. Near term support is at last week's low of 108-055 (March T-notes have made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks) followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108-02. Further support is clustered between this year's current weekly low of 107-155 and the daily November low of 107-085. If T-notes break down to a new contract low they could quickly collapse to the 105-00 area or test a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104-04 (as measured between the 2000 low of 93-215 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-01). Open Interest is at the lowest level since late October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that notes are oversold on the monthly chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways to higher in December. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since August. Small traders are neutral.

International bonds - March Canadian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at last week's one and a half month high of 114.59. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.95. A rally above it could keep this market on track for the contract high of 116.44. If the March Canadian 10-year bonds break out to a new contract high look for a run to this year's current weekly high of 117.78. Near term support is at last week's low of 113.41 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.32. A drop below this retracement could put the market on the defensive and send it down to test the daily November low of 112.54. A break below the daily November low could cause a decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.57 or even this year's current weekly low of 110.04.  December Euro bunds find near term resistance at last week's one month high of 121.19 in confluence with the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 121.16 and the weekly August low of 121.16 (old resistance). A rally past this level should allow the market to test the October 24th reaction high of 122.32 on the daily chart or the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 122.47. If the rally does not end here March bunds could gain another point and visit the weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 123.41. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 119.82. Further support is the contract low of 118.97. A break to new contract lows on the daily chart could send the market down to this year's current weekly low of 116.89 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.70 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 111.81 and this year's current all-time high of 124.60).  March London long gilts find near term resistance at the November high of 114.09. A rally above it could take the market up to the weekly September high of 114.60 or the weekly July high of 114.72. Further resistance may not be found again until the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 117.16. Near term support is at a gap on the daily chart between 112.75 and 112.65 followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.62. If gilts can't establish support in this area the market could test the contract low of 111.71. If this low is broken the market could plunge to the weekly October low of 111.20. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.95 in confluence with the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.91.  March Australian 10-year bonds find near term support at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.56. Further support is the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.495. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the contract low of 94.39. A break below this low should allow the market to quickly test the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.32. Further support is at this year's current low on the weekly chart at 94.175. Near term resistance is at last week's multi-week high of 94.67. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.78. If Aussie bonds can get past this level they could attempt a run to the contract high of 95.02. A break out to new highs could take the market right on up to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 95.115.  March JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term resistance at last week's two month high of 138.05. Further resistance is at the weekly November high of 138.49. A rally above it could let March JGBs test the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.27. If the market does not stop there it could test the double top on the weekly chart at this year's high of 141.35. Near term support is at last week's low of 137.13 followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 137.03. A break below this price level could allow the market to decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 136.41. If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to the contract low of 135.39. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 134.91.

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term resistance between the daily contract high of 92.20, the weekly 2004 high of 92.50, and the weekly November high of 92.53. A strong close above this price barrier could catapult the greenback up to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Further resistance is at the psychological 100 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 90.53. A break below it could allow the buck to drift down to intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 88.22 in confluence with the daily October low of 88.22. Just below this level is the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 87.93. If the greenback fails to stabilize here it could test the weekly September low of 85.97. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the US dollar is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move sharply lower in December. Commercial interests covered just a fraction of their record size net short position. Large traders sold a small amount of their record size net long position. Small traders are still neutral.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's two month high of .8641. Further resistance is at the contract high of .8666. A break out above it could send the "looney" flying to the 1991 high of .8906 or the psychological 90 cent level. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8384 in confluence with the daily November low of .8380. A break below it could send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8209. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to decline significantly for the first three weeks of December and then make a sharp rally during the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding a sizable net short position. Large traders are holding a huge net long position. Small traders are also holding a very big net long position.

The Australian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's one month high of .7468. A break out above this high could send it on up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7535. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7710. This is closely followed by the weekly September high of .7761 and the weekly June high of .7770. If the Aussie does not stop here look for it to quickly hit the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .7834. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7330. Further support is found between the contract low of .7244 and the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212. If the Aussie dollar does not stabilize near 72 cents it could plunge to the psychological 70 cent mark. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-September. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move lower for the first half of December and then rally for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are net short for the first time in over four years.

The March Canadian dollar/Australian dollar spread finds near term resistance at the nearly four year high of .1259 (about twelve and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the psychological fifteen cent mark or even the all-time weekly closing high of .1538 (about fifteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is at the daily November low of .1106 (about eleven cents) premium Canadian dollar. (This spread has only taken out a previous month's low once in the last seven months). Further support is found at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .903 (about nine cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the decline does not end here the spread could decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0683 (just under seven cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound may have signaled a bottom last week. After making a new contract low, the market reversed and took out a previous week's high for the first time since late October. This created an outside reversal up on the weekly chart. Also, the market closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in a month. If the market takes out last week's high of 1.7380 it could run to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7578. If sterling can make it past this level it may challenge the daily October high of 1.7880 or the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7903. Bigger resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7983. A break out above this barrier could send sterling up to the weekly September high of 1.8492 or even the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8563. Near term support is at last week's new contract low of .17050. Further support is at the psychological 1.65 level. Failure to stabilize here could result in a melt-down to the psychological 1.60 mark or even the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.5886. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is oversold on the weekly chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for the first half of December and then rally for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a near record net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record net short position. Small traders are holding their biggest net short position since March of 2002.

The March Swiss franc finds near term support at the current contract low of .7610. Further support is at the weekly November low of .7548. If this low is broken the market could plummet to the weekly November 2003 reaction low of .7247. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .7772 (the March Swiss franc has only exceeded a previous week's high once in the last five weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above only once in the last month. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7869. A break out above this high could allow the Swissie to rally to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8028 or even the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8061. If the rally does not end here look for the Swiss franc to test the weekly September high of .8178. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swiss franc is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves slightly higher in December. Commercial interests increased the size of their record net long position. Large traders are now holding a new record net short position. Small traders increased the size of their large net short position.

The Euro currency finds near term support at the current contract low of 1.1719. Further technical support is located between the weekly November low of 1.1661 and the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. After that look for the Euro to test the psychological 1.15 mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high 1.1970. A strong close above it could allow the market to make a run to the daily October high of 1.2311 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2320. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2435. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Euro should rally sharply in December. Commercial interests are holding a very large net long position. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position in five months. Small traders are net long on the Euro for the first time since mid-September.

The Japanese yen finds near term daily support at last week's new contract low of .008350. Further support is at last week's low on the weekly chart at .008263. If the market does not establish support in this area it could plunge to the psychological .008000 mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high .008557 (the March yen has made lower weekly highs for twelve consecutive weeks and lower weekly lows for eleven out of the last twelve weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-September). If the market can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average a short-covering rally could boost the yen up to the daily November high of .008720 (the March yen has made lower monthly highs and lower monthly lows for three consecutive months) followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008738. Bigger resistance is located between the weekly July low of .008844 (old support) and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008875. If the run does not end here perhaps the yen intends to test the weekly September high of .009208 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009252. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in December. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since mid-June. Large traders are holding a record size net short position. Small traders are still neutral.

Metals - February gold finds near term resistance at last week's new multi-year high of $508.90. Until a reversal pattern develops, the market could be heading to the psychological $550 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $497.20 (February gold has made higher weekly lows for the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above every day for nearly a month. If the market closes below a previous week's low and the 18-day Moving Average it could decline to the daily October high of $486.00 (old resistance). Further support is at the daily November low of $460.00 followed by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $456.90. After that the market could tag the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $442.70. Open Interest is still near the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways in December. Commercials are still holding a near record net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a near record net long position. Small traders are the least bullish since the end of May.

March silver exploded to an eighteen year high last week! If the market can take out the current contract high of $8.675 it could quickly hit the psychological nine dollar mark. Further resistance is at the 1987 spike high of $9.795. Near term support is at last week's low of $8.285. (March silver has made higher weekly lows for the last four weeks). A weak close below it could cause a quick decline to the daily October high of $8.02 (old resistance) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $7.96. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.515 in confluence with the daily November low of $7.50. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the psychological seven dollar mark. Open Interest reached another all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, silver should move slightly higher in December. Commercials are now holding the largest net short position in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position in a year. Small traders are neutral.

March copper finds resistance at the current contract high of 200.15. Further resistance is at the new all-time high on the weekly chart at 218.30. This market is in un-charted territory here so the sky's the limit! However, once it peaks out the sell-off could be quite dramatic. Market bubbles rarely pop quietly. Near term support is at last week's low of 188.80 (March copper has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-September). If copper closes below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average copper could decline to technical support clustered between the daily November low of 172.10 (March copper has made higher monthly highs and made higher monthly lows for six consecutive months), the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 171.10, and the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 170.40. Further support is located between the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 157.00 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in over two years), the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 153.20, and the daily September low of 152.00. Open Interest is at a one month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is still overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for the first half of December and then rally slightly for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are still neutral.

Energies - January crude oil made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart last week when it dropped to a six month low and then reversed to take out a two week high. This is the first time that January crude oil has been able to clear a previous week's high since mid-September. The market also closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in over two months. This sort of action is bullish for crude oil. If the market takes out last week's high of $59.55 it could quickly test the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $61.65. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $65.15. If January crude oil makes a strong close above this retracement it could be gearing up for a challenge of the contract high of $70.80. Near term support is at the daily November low of $56.00. Further support is at the weekly November low of $55.40. If these lows are broken crude oil will encounter support at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average around $53.25. (Crude oil has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for two years). After that the market will find psychological support near the $50 mark. A close below fifty dollars could result in a quick decline to the major monthly Fibonacci 382 retracement at $47.74. Open Interest is recovering from a four month low. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should decline in the first half of December and then rally for the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since September of 2003! Large traders are holding the largest net short position since March of 2003! Small traders are holding the largest net short position since Memorial Day.

January Unleaded Gas could have bottomed out last week. After breaking the previous week's low, the market reversed and took out a previous week's high for the first time since it made the all-time high in September. This created an outside reversal up on the weekly chart. Gasoline also closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in two months. If the market takes out last week's high of 161.85 and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average the market could rally to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 166.65 followed closely by the daily November high of 168.00. If gasoline does not stop here it could drive prices up to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 180.15. Near term support is at last week's multi-month low of 144.80. Further support is at the weekly November low of 139.00. A break below this low could cause a gasoline spill to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 131.07. Failure to stabilize here could send the market down to the monthly December 2004 reaction low of 103.50. Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, gasoline should decline in the first half of December and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since Memorial Day. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders the least bullish since June.

January natural gas looks very bullish. The market made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart last week. If it can clear the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 13.923 in confluence with last week's high of 13.950 it should go right on up to the daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 14.661. Further resistance is at the contract high of 15.600. Near term support is at last week's three low of 11.210. Further support is located between the weekly November low of 10.880 and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 10.842. If the market does not stabilize here it could try to fill a big gap on the weekly chart created back in August (when hurricane Katrina struck) between 10.650 and 10.020. Further support is at last year's weekly high of 9.200 (old resistance). Open Interest is still at a very high level. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is now oversold on the daily chart. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to rally sharply for the first three weeks of December and then break down during the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since mid-January of 2005. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders have barely changed the size of their huge net long position.

Meats - February live cattle finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 96.95. Further resistance is at the psychological 100 mark. After that the market may be headed to the 2003 all-time high of 103.60. Near term support is last week's low of 94.50. (February live cattle has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks). A close below it could allow the market to test the November low of 92.57 (February live cattle has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for three consecutive months) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 92.37. Further support is at the daily October low of 91.30. A break below it could send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 89.52. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should decline in the first half of December and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercial interests holding the largest net short position since mid-May. Large traders are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are holding a record size net short position.

January feeders find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 117.90. Further resistance is at the all-time high on the monthly chart at 119.75. Near term support is at the daily October high of 115.00 (old resistance). Further support is at the daily November low of 112.60. (January feeders have made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for the last four months). A break below it could quickly drive feeders down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.67. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.22. Open Interest is at the highest level in nearly two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the daily and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should move lower in December. Commercials covered some of their big net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding the biggest net long position since August of 2003. Small traders are holding a huge net short position.

February lean hogs find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 68.30. A strong break out to new highs again could move the hog market up to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 73.65. Near term support is at daily November low of 64.60. (February lean hogs have made higher monthly lows for five consecutive months). A break below it could allow the market to test to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 63.25 or even the October low of 62.60. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 60.15. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are overbought on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to drift lower in December. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since early May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders covered just a small amount of their record size net short position.

Grains - March soybeans finds near term support at last week's new contract low of $5.53. A weak close below it could keep this market moving toward the big weekly double bottom between this year's current weekly low of $4.984 and last year's weekly low of $5.01. Near term resistance is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $5.936. Further resistance is at the November high of $6.12. (March soybeans have made lower monthly highs for five consecutive months). A break out above last month's high should take beans to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $6.322. If the rally does not end there the market could be on it's way up the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.81. Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybeans are oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should head lower in December. Commercial interests more than doubled the size of their largest net long position to become the most bullish on beans since mid-February. Large traders more than doubled the size of their largest net short soybean position to become the most bearish since then. Small traders are still holding a large net short position.

March soy meal finds near term support at last week's new contract low of $169.00. Further support is at the weekly October low of $162.30. If these lows fail to support the market look for a decline to the weekly double bottom between this year's weekly low of $148.10 and last year's weekly low of $146.60. Near term resistance is at the November high of $186.20. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $195.00 in confluence with the daily September high of $195.00. If the rally does not end here look for the market to test the gap on the daily chart between $200.00 and $205.20. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $211.00. Open Interest is at the highest level since June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that soybean meal is still near oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, soy meal usually moves lower in December. Commercials are holding the largest net long position since mid-February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since then. Small traders are the least bullish since mid-February.

March bean oil finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 21.25. Further support is at the weekly November low of 20.80. If this low is broken the market could drop to this year's current weekly low of 18.82. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 21.93 (March bean oil has made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average the market could stage a bear market rally up to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 23.24. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 24.46. If the rally doesn't end here perhaps the market will test the daily October high of 25.25 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 25.34. Open Interest is the highest level since March of 2004. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to stay flat in December. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since mid-February. Large traders are holding the largest net short position since then. Small traders are the least bullish in ten months.

March corn finds near term support at last week's new contract low of $2.002. Further support is at the weekly November low of $1.86 in confluence with the 2001 low of $1.84. If these lows are broken corn could drop right to the 2000 decade low of $1.74. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.046(March corn has made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks and sixteen out of the last nineteen weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over four months!). If corn finally closes above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average manages to close back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could test the November high of $2.132. (March corn has made lower monthly highs and lower monthly lows for four months straight). If the market exceeds last month's high it may attempt to fill a big daily chart gap between $2.236 and $2.27. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.292. Open Interest dropped to the lowest level since mid-October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should decline in December. Commercials are holding the largest net long position since mid-May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral to bearish.

January rice finds near term resistance at the daily November high of 7.800 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 7.800. If the market closes above this level it may be headed up to the contract high of at 8.100 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 8.100. A strong close above this resistance level could clear the way for the market to make a run to the psychological 9.000 area. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 7.380 in confluence with last week's low of 7.370. If this support level fails January rice could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.120. Further support is located between the September low of 6.750 and the contract low of 6.700. Open Interest is at the highest level since June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is near overbought on the weekly chart. Seasonally, rice should move sideways in December. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in nearly two years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since May.

March oats finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $1.916. A break out to new highs could send the market right up last week's high on the weekly chart at $2.04. If the rally does not end here oats may visit the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2.206. Near term support is at last week's low of $1.794 (March oats have not broken a previous week's low in the past four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average. (March oats have not closed below the 18-day Moving Average in the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.694 in confluence with the daily November low of $1.672. Further support is at the daily September low of $1.56. Open Interest is at the highest level since February. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are nearing overbought on the weekly chart. Oats have a seasonal tendency to decline in December. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since April. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are neutral.

March wheat could be showing signs of a bottom. After making a new contract low, the market reversed and took out a previous week's high for the first time since September. This created an outside reversal up on the weekly chart. Also, the March wheat closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-October. If the market takes out last week's high of $3.234 and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average expect wheat to make a run to the daily November high of $3.354. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.416. If the rally does not end here March wheat could be headed up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.612 or the daily September and October highs of $3.65 and $3.64. Near term support is at last week's new contract low of $3.10. A close below it could cause a decline to the weekly November low of $2.95. Further support is at last year's low of $2.824. Open Interest is sitting flat neat the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is near oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should decline slightly in December. Commercial interests increased the size of their record net long position. Large traders increased the size of their record net short position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since March.

Softs - March coffee finds near term support at last week's two month low of 94.65. A break below it could send March coffee down to the contract low of 90 cents. If March coffee hits a new contract low look for a decline to the weekly September low of 84.45. Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 78 cents. Near term resistance is at the daily November high of 112.40 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.45. Further resistance is at the psychological 120 mark. If March coffee does not stop here it may be on it's way up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 126.30. Open Interest is at the lowest level since October of 2004. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should rally in December. Commercials are neutral to bearish on the coffee market right now. Large traders (hedge funds) a the least bullish in months. They are the most bullish that they have been since mid-August. Small traders are neutral.

March cocoa finds near term support at last week's low of $1,390. A drop below it could take the market back down to the contract low of $1,344. Further support is located at the weekly November low of $1,315 followed closely by the 2004 low of $1,299. If cocoa does not hold well level here it could plunge to the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1,048. Near term resistance is at last week's two and a half month high of $1,484. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,554. A break out above it could allow March cocoa to visit the daily September high of $1,605. If this high is exceeded look for the market to make a run to the daily June high of $1,642. Open Interest is at a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is oversold on the monthly chart. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to rally in the first half of December and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial are the most bearish since early September. Large traders are neutral to bullish. Small traders are neutral.

March sugar finds near term daily resistance at last week's nine and a half year high of 13.05. Further resistance is at the 1996 high of 13.25. If this high is exceeded sugar could rally to the 1995 high of 15.83. Near term support is clustered between the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below since mid-May, the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 11.23, and the October low of 11.13. (March sugar has higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for six consecutive months). If this support cluster fails expect a quick decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.11 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 10.08. Further support is at last year's high of 9.37 (old resistance). Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should decline in the first half of December and then move higher for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a near record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are still holding a big net long position.

January orange juice finds near term daily resistance at last week's new seven year high of 127.90. Further resistance is at the weekly 1998 high of 131.95. A break out above this high could clear the path for OJ to challenge the 1996 high of 138.75. Near term support is at the daily November low of 115.40. (January orange juice has made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months). A break below last month's low should allow the market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113.75. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104.95 followed by the daily October low of 102.35. Open Interest is at the highest level since February. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should decline significantly in December. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since August. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position since July. Small traders are still holding about the smallest net long position since August of 2003.

March cotton finds near term support at last week's two and a half month low of 51.38. Further support is at the contract low of 49.80. If March cotton breaks down to a new contract low it could decline to the weekly August low of 46 cents. Further support is located between this year's weekly low of 42.40 and last year's weekly low of 42 cents. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 53.50 (March cotton has made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average makes a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average cotton should rally right to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 54.39. Further resistance is at a chart gap on the daily chart between 56 cents and 56.30 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 56.24. If the rally does not end here March cotton could be headed up to the October high of 59.25. Open Interest is at the lowest level since the end of June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is oversold on the daily chart and nearly oversold on the monthly chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for the first three weeks of December and then make a sharp rally during the last week of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position in three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since the beginning of September. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2005 Pearce Financial, LLC
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