The March NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at the January high of 1774.00. A strong close above it could allow the market to challenge the psychological 2000 area. Further resistance is at the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2076.00. Near term support is located between this year's current weekly low of 1646.00, the weekly August high of 1635.00 (old resistance), and the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1630.00 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1397.00 and this year's current multi-year high of 1774.00). A break below this support level could send the market to the weekly October low of 1523.00. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1482.30 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low of 1302.00 and this year's current high of 1774.00). Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the monthly chart. The NASDAQ 100 move sideways to lower in February. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since last March. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position in thirteen months. Small traders are holding a decent size net long position.

Interest rates - March T-bonds find near term resistance at the daily January high of 115-13 in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115-16 (as measured between the weekly September high of 118-21 and the weekly November low of 110-12). Further resistance is at another intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-09 (as measured between the last year's weekly high of 119-30 and the weekly November low of 110-12). If T-bonds make it past these retracement levels it could rally on up to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 117-29 in confluence with the daily August high of 117-31 or even the weekly September high of 118-21. Near term support is located at last week's low of 112-04 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112-05. A break below this level could take the market down to a technical support cluster between the daily November low of 110-04, the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16, and this year's current weekly low of 109-00. The March NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term daily support at the current January low of 4-03 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-22 premium T-bonds. If the spread does not stabilize here look for a decline to the daily November low of 2-28 premium T-bonds. Near term daily resistance at the January high of 5-09 premium T-bonds in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 5-09 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the contract spread high on the daily chart at 5-30 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at the highest level since November. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move lower in February. Commercial interests are holding a sizable net long position. Large traders are still net short but it's their least bearish position since last fall. Small traders are still holding a huge net short position.

March T-notes find near term resistance at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-05 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 114-16 and the weekly 2005 low of 107-155) in confluence with the January high of 110-065. If the market can break thru this barrier look for a run to another intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111-155 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 117-31 and the weekly 2005 low of 107-155). If T-notes do not back down from this barrier they could be headed to the weekly September high of 113-135. Further resistance is at the weekly 2005 high of 114-16. Near term support is clustered between last week's multi-week low of 107-25, this year's current weekly low of 107-155, and the daily November low of 107-085. A break below this price zone could slam T-notes down to the 105-00 area or even a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104-04 (as measured between the 2000 low of 93-215 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-01). Open Interest is at the highest level since August. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in February. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since October of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are neutral.

International bonds - March Canadian 10-year bonds look ugly on the long term chart. The market made an outside reversal down on the monthly chart when it took out a two month high and then reversed to a multi-month low. The market also closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for the first time since July of 2004. A break below last week's nearly nine month low of 112.54 could send the market spiraling down to technical support located between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.82 (as measured between the weekly 2002 low of 99.55 and last year's all-time high of 117.78) and another intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.57 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 106.12 and last year's all-time high of 117.78). Further support is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.51 (as measured between the weekly 2002 low of 99.55 and last year's all-time high of 117.78) followed by the weekly 2002 low of 106.12. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.24. A close above it could send the market a point higher to challenge the weekly January high of 115.29. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.78.  March Euro bunds find near term support at last week's low of 119.77. A break below it could allow the market to decline to the contract low of 118.97. If Euro bunds hit a new contract low it could plummet to the weekly 2005 low of 116.89 in confluence with a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.70 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 111.81 and last year's all-time high of 124.60). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 121.55. Further resistance is at the January high of 122.65. A break out above this high could allow bunds to make a run for the contract high of 124.35 followed by last year's all-time high on the weekly chart at 124.60.  March London long gilts find near term support at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.38 in confluence with last week's multi-week low of 113.32. A break below this level could allow the market to test the monthly 18-bar Moving Average at 111.90 (gilts have not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since November 2004) or the contract low of 111.71. After that the market could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109.15 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 104.86 and this year's current high of 116.08) or even last year's weekly low of 108.55. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.03. Further resistance is at the January high of 116.08. A break out above it could send gilts soaring to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 117.16 or even the December 2003 reaction high of 117.40.  March Australian 10-year bonds find near term support at last week's multi-week low of 94.575. A break below this level could take the market down to the weekly November low of 94.39. A weak close below this low could indicate that Aussie bonds are on the way to last year's weekly low of 94.175. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.77. Further resistance is at the contract high of 94.89 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 94.895. A break out to new highs should allow the market to test the weekly 2005 high of 95.03. March JGBs (Japanese gov't. bonds) closed below the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement last week. A drop below last week's low of 136.34 should immediately take the market down to the weekly November low of 135.90. If this low is broken the market could decline to the contract low of 135.39.  March JGB's  break to a new contract low they could decline to the weekly 2004 low of 133.16 in confluence with an intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 133.09 (as measured between the 1999 spike low of 125.70 and the 2003 all-time high of 145.04). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.71. Further resistance is at the January high of 138.56. A break out above this high should send JGBs right on up to the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.27. If the market makes a strong close above these highs look for a run to the double top on the weekly chart at this year's high of 141.35.

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term resistance at last week's one month high of 90.14. A strong close above it could allow the market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 90.48. If the rally does not end here the greenback could move swiftly up to bigger technical resistance clustered between the daily contract high of 92.20, the weekly 2004 high of 92.50, and the weekly November high of 92.53. If the buck can break out above this resistance zone look for a run to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Near term support is at the January low of 87.69. If this low does not hold look for the buck to hit the weekly September low of 85.97. Failure to stabilize here could send the buck down to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 85.08 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 80.48 and last year's weekly high of 92.53). Open Interest is flat. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move lower in February. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in nearly five months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since September. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since December of 2004.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's new fourteen year high of .8804. If the market continues to break out to new contract highs it could be headed to the 1991 high of .8906 or even the psychological 90 cent level. Near term support is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8609. A break below it could allow the market to test the January low of .8489. Further support is at a weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8441 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .7855 and this year's current high of .8771). If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8218 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .7855 and this year's current high of .8771). Open Interest is at a six week high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the daily,weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to move sideways for the first half of February and then lower for the second half of the month. Commercial interests are still holding a huge net short position. Large traders are still holding a huge net long position. Small traders are also holding a very big net long position.

The Australian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's high of .7579. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7696. If the rally does not end here the Aussie dollar could tag the weekly September high of .7761 or the weekly June high of .7770. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7441 in confluence with the January 19th reaction low .7433. A break below it could allow the market to decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7356. Failure to stabilize here could result in a further drop to the December low of .7218 in confluence with the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212 (as measured between the 2004 low and the 2005 high). Open Interest is at a six week high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie dollar is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move lower in a choppy range in February. Commercials are now holding the biggest net short position in four months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since mid-September. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in four months.

The March Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term resistance at the January high of .1261 (about twelve and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the December high of .1331 (about thirteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. A break out to new highs could take the spread up to the psychological fifteen cent mark or even the all-time weekly closing high of .1538 (about fifteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1131 (about eleven and a third cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the January low of .1050 (ten and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread does not stabilize here it could contract to the daily October low of .967 (about nine and two-thirds of a cent) premium Canadian dollar or the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .947 (about nine and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound finds near term support at last week's low of 1.7593. A break below it could cause a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7389. Failure to stabilize here could send sterling back down to the contract low of 1.7050. Near term resistance is clustered between the January high of 1.7938, the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7940, and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7983. A break out above this resistance zone could send sterling shooting up to the weekly September high of 1.8492. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-December. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is overbought on the daily chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in February. Commercials are the least bullish since September. Large traders (hedge funds) are the least bearish since then. Small traders are neutral.

The March Swiss franc finds near term resistance support at last week's one month low of .7722. A close below it could take the market back down to a support cluster between the daily December low of .7628, the daily November low of .7610, and the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7592. Further support is at the weekly November low of .7548. Near term resistance is at the January high of .8001. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8061. A break out above this level could allow the market to rally to the weekly September high of .8178. Open Interest is flat. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually move sideways in February. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since March. Large traders are now net long for the first time in over a year. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

The Euro currency finds near term support at last week's low of 1.1994 (the Euro has made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks) followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.1963 and the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.1928. If support is not established here expect a drop to test the contract low of 1.1719. Further technical support is located between the weekly November low of 1.1661 and the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Near term resistance is at the January high of 1.2359. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2435. After this level the market could tag the weekly September high of 1.2598. Open Interest climbed back up to where it was in mid-December. Seasonally, the Euro should move sideways to slightly lower in February. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since November 2004. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since December 2004.

The Japanese yen finds near term support at last week's multi-week low of .008413. A break below it could hammer the yen down to the contract low of .008338. Further support is at the weekly December low of .008262. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .008593. (The Japanese yen has made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008702. A close above this retracement could allow the market to test the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008868 in confluence with the January high of .008880. A strong break out above this resistance zone should allow the market to make a run for the weekly September high of .009208 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009248. Open Interest is at a six week high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is near oversold on the daily and monthly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways to slightly lower in February. Commercial interests are neutral on the yen. Large traders are neutral to bearish as they have aggressively covered their huge short position over the last several weeks. Small traders are neutral.

Metals - April gold finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $579.50. Further resistance is at the psychological $600 mark. If the market moves past this mark look for resistance at $618.50 on the weekly chart. This is based on a weekly "A,B,C" wave projection where wave "A" is the move from last year's weekly low of $410.10 to the weekly mid-December high of $538.50, wave "B" is the correction from the weekly mid-December high of $538.50 to the mid-December low of $490.10 (which was only six ticks away from an exact Fibonacci .382 retracement of wave "A"), and wave "C" is the move back up off of the mid-December low of $490.10. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". Near term support is at last week's low of $565.80 (April gold has made higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost a month). If gold cracks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly pull back to technical support clustered between the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $548.00 (as measured between the daily December low of $497.00 and the current contract high), the daily December high of $548.00 (old resistance), and the January 18th reaction low of $548.00. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $528.50 (as measured between the daily December low of $497.00 and the current contract high), and the daily January low of $527.00. (April gold has only broken a previous month's low once in the last seven months). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $497.60 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low and this year's current high) in confluence with the December low of $497.00. Open Interest is sitting flat near historic levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that gold should peak in the first week of February and then decline sharply for the rest of the month. Commercials are still holding a near record net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a near record net long position. Small traders are neutral on gold.

March silver finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $9.915. Further resistance is at a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $10.565 (as measured between the 1983 high of $14.93 and the 1991 multi-decade low of $3.505). If the rally does not end here look for silver to challenge a major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $11.715 (as measured between the September 1980 reaction high of $25.00 and the 1991 multi-decade low of $3.505). Near term support is at last week's low of $9.60 (March silver has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost a month). If silver breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it may decline to technical support clustered between the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $9.295 (as measured between the daily December low of $8.29 and the current contract high), the daily December high of $9.28 (old resistance), and a gap on the daily chart between $9.355 and $9.26. Further support is at the daily January low of $8.76 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $8.725. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the daily December low of $8.29. Open Interest is at the lowest level since October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is near overbought territory on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, silver should move higher in the first half of February and then decline for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a near record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are neutral.

March copper finds near term resistance at last week's new all-time high of 231.60. If this high is exceeded look for copper to challenge the psychological $2.50 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 220.60 (March copper has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late September). If copper breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market may test the January low of 201.20. (March copper has made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for eight consecutive months). A close below last month's low could be a cause for concern since it could signal a major trend change. Open Interest is hovering at multi-month lows. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is still overbought on the daily and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move sharply higher in February. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since last Spring. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding one of their smallest net long positions since Spring of 2003. Small traders are still neutral.

Energies - March crude oil finds near term resistance at the January high of $69.15. Further resistance is at last year's all-time high on the weekly chart $70.85. If the market closes above this high it could be catapulted up near the psychological $80 mark. This lines up with two different "A,B,C" wave projections on two different time frames. The first "A,B,C" wave long-term projection is on the monthly chart where wave "A" is the move from the 2001 multi-month reaction low of $16.70 up to what was then an all-time high in 2004 at $55.65, wave "B" is the correction from this all-time high to the December 2004 reaction low of $40.25 (which was only a half-dollar below the monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement of wave "A"), and wave "C" is the move back up off of the 2004 reaction low of $40.25. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". So that would put a minimum target for wave "C" at $79.20. The next "A,B,C" wave projection is on the weekly chart where wave "A" is the move from the weekly May 2005 reaction low of $46.20 up to the all-time high on the weekly chart $70.85, wave "B" is the correction from the all-time high on the weekly chart $70.85 to the weekly November low of $55.40 (which was only a few ticks below a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement of wave "A"), and wave "C" is the move back up off of the weekly November low of $55.40. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". So that would put a minimum target for wave "C" at $80.05. So there you have it: "A,B,C" wave projection confluence on two different time frames where the targets are less than a buck away from each other. What a great place to hit a final spike high before a market melt-down! Near term support is at last week's low of $63.95 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late September). If crude oil breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market may test a gap on the daily chart between $62.50 and $62.00 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $61.95. Further support is at the contract low of $57.50. Open Interest is at the highest level since August. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is near overbought levels on the monthly chart again. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should trade sideways in February. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since August. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since September. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since May of 2004.

March Unleaded Gas finds near term resistance at the January high of 189.50. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement of 197.14 in confluence with the March contract high of 197.59. A strong close above this barrier could launch gasoline up to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 233.36. Near term support is found at last week's low of 163.20. Further support is at the contract low of 153.00. A break below it could send the market down to the weekly November low of 138.50. Open Interest recently ran back up to where it was last summer. Seasonally, gasoline should move sideways in February. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since August. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since then as well.

March natural gas finds near term resistance at last week's high of 9.820 (March natural gas has made lower weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average since December). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a run up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 10.896. Further resistance is at a gap on the weekly chart between 11.700 and 11.970. If the rally doesn't end here natural gas may explode to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 12.674. Near term support is at the contract low of 8.000. A break to new lows could pressure the market into testing the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.116. After that natural gas may not find support until the psychological 6.000 level. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is nearing oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to move lower for most of February and then rally in the last week of the month. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders are still holding a huge net short position. Small traders are neutral.

Meats - April live cattle find near term support at last week's three month low of 89.67. A break below it could take the market down to the daily October low of 88.45 or the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 88.15. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 86.15. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 92.00. (April live cattle has made lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks). A strong close above it may allow the market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 93.30. If cattle does not stop here look for a stampede to the contract high of 95.55. Further resistance is at last year's high on the weekly chart at 97.12. Open Interest reached another all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally modestly in February. Commercial interests are now net long for the first time since September. Large traders sold off some of their record size net long position. Small traders are still holding a record size net short position.

March feeders find near term support at last week's three and a half month low of 107.80. Further support is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.17. (As measured between the 2005 weekly low of 97.80 and last year's all-time high of 119.75). If this support level is broken feeders may decline to the weekly July low of 105.40. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 110.70 (March feeders have made lower weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has been closing below for almost a month. A break out above this short-term resistance could take the market to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.92. If the rally does not end here March feeders could test the contract high of 116.10. A break out to new contract highs could allow the market to test the weekly November high of 117.90. Open Interest is sitting flat near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are near oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, feeders should move sideways in February. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since September. Large traders (hedge funds) sold some of their record size net long position. Small traders are still holding the biggest net short position since August of 2003.

April lean hogs find near term support at last week's five month low of 59.60. Further support is at the daily September low of 58.45 in confluence with the daily August low of 58.32 and the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 58.30. If April lean hogs fail to stabilize here they could test the contract low of 55.00. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 62.35 (April lean hogs have made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has been closing below for nearly a month. A break out above this short-term resistance could take the market back up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 63.72. Further resistance is at a gap on the daily chart between 66.40 and 66.80 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 66.27. If the rally does not end here hogs could run to the contract high of 70.40. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to decline in February. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since August. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since July. Small traders are still holding a sizable net short position.

Grains - March soybeans find near term resistance at last week's high of $6.034. A close above it could allow the market to test the January high of $6.33. If this high is taken out look for beans to rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.81. Further resistance is at the psychological seven dollar mark. Near term support is at the January low of $5.634 followed by the contract low of $5.53. If beans break down to close at new contract lows look for a possible decline to the major double bottom on the weekly chart between the 2004 low of $5.01 and the 2005 low of $4.984. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should head lower in the first half of February and then rally sharply in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in nearly a year. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position in two months. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since April.

March soy meal finds near term resistance at last week's high of $190.50. A close above it could allow the market to test the daily December high of $204.50. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $211.00. If the market closes above this retracement look for a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $222.40. Near term support is at the January low of $175.60. Further support is at the contract low of $169.00. If March soy meal breaks down to a new low it may not find weekly support until the weekly October low of $162.30. Open Interest is sitting flat at the lowest level since September. Seasonally, soy meal should drop in the first half of February and then rally sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since early December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on meal.

March bean oil finds near term resistance at last week's high of 22.68. Further resistance is located at an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 23.62 (as measured between the daily October high of 25.25 and the contract low of 20.98) in confluence with the daily January high of 23.64. If bean oil can clear this resistance area it could rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 24.36. (As measured between the contract high of 26.45 and the contract low of 20.98). Near term support is at a gap on the daily chart between 21.71 and 21.60 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 21.64. A break below it could pull the market right back down to the contract low of 20.98. Further support is at the weekly December low of 20.62. Open Interest is at a six week high. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to rally in February. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are neutral.

March corn finds near term resistance at last week's four and a half month high of $2.256. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.286. A strong close above this level could encourage the market to make a run for the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.466. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.094. Further support is at the contract low of $1.994. If July corn breaks down to a new contract low it could decline to last year's low on the weekly chart at $1.86. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is near overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways for the first half of February and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since August. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since June of 2004. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in years.

March rice finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 8.670. Further resistance is at the psychological 9.000 mark. If the rally does not end here expect rice to test the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.330. Near term support is at last week's low of 8.400 (March rice has made higher weekly lows for seven out of the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last two months). If rice breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could retreat to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.015 (as measured between the current contract high and the daily December low of 7.610) in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 8.015 (as measured between the current contract high and the daily September low of 6.950). Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.615 (as measured between the current contract high and the daily September low of 6.950) in confluence with the daily December low of 7.610. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, rice should decline in February. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in many years. Large traders (hedge funds) increased the size of their record size net long position again. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in two years.

March oats finds near term resistance between last week's high of $2.02 and the contract high of $2.06. A break out to new highs could send the market to the weekly December high of $2.206 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2.206. Further resistance may not be found again until the 2002 high of $2.48. Near term support is located between the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1.832 and the daily January low of $1.826. Further support is found between the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.586, the monthly October and November lows at $1.584, and the daily September low of $1.56. Open Interest is at the highest level since the Spring of 2004. Oats have a seasonal tendency to decline slightly in February. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since May 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are the most bullish since June.

March wheat finds near term resistance clustered between last week's multi-month daily high of $3.614, the daily September and October highs of $3.65 and $3.64, a major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $3.652 (as measured between the July high of $3.81 and the contract low of $3.07), last year's weekly high of $3.69, and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.70. If March wheat can make it past this gauntlet of resistance look for it to approach July high of $3.81 on the daily chart. Further resistance is at the psychological four dollar mark. Near term support is located between the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.276 and the daily January low of $3.214. Further support is found at the contract low of $3.07. A break to new contract lows could easily allow March wheat to test the weekly December low of $2.924. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should drop in February. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since mid-October. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are bearish on wheat.

Softs - March coffee made an outside bar on the weekly chart last week when it took the high of the last several weeks and then took out the low of the previous three weeks. Near term resistance is located between last week's multi-month high of 125.90 and the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 126.30. A strong close above this resistance level could send the market up to the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 136.20 or last year's high on the weekly chart at 137.00. Near term support is at last week's low of 114.80 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average since mid-December). If the market breaks last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect an immediate decline to the daily November high of 112.40 (old resistance) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.20. A break below it could send March coffee down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 103.70. Open Interest is at the highest level since last Spring. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is near overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, coffee should rally in February. Commercials are holding the largest net short position since June. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in nearly a year.

March cocoa finds near term resistance between the January high of $1,600 and the daily September high of $1,605. Further resistance is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,646 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of $1,850 and the 2005 weekly double bottom low of $1,315). A break out above this level could allow cocoa to test the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,727(as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 weekly double bottom low at $1,299). Near term support is at last week's low of $1,443 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,442. If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to the contract low of $1,344. Further support is at last year's weekly double bottom low at $1,315. Open Interest is at a three month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is nearing oversold on the daily chart. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in the first half of February and then drop in the second half of the month. Commercial are holding the largest net short position since April. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

March sugar finds near term daily resistance at the new twenty-five high of 19.73. Further resistance is at the psychological 25 cent mark. If it does not slow down here it may even hit 30 cents. Near term support is at last week's low of 17.65 (March sugar has made higher weekly lows for eleven out of the last twelve weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-November). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a drop to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 16.19. (As measured between the current contract high and the daily January low of 14 cents). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 15.36. The January low of 14 cents offers more support since March sugar has made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for eight consecutive months. This is pretty close to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 13.86 (as measured between the current contract high and the 1999 multi-year low of 4.36). Open Interest is sitting flat near the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is still overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should rally through most of February and then drop in the last week of the month. Commercials are the least bearish since July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

March orange juice finds near term daily resistance at last week's high of 126.75 in confluence with the January high of 127.50 on the daily chart. Further resistance is at the contract high of 133.00. A break out above this high could catapult the market to the 1996 high of 138.75. Near term support is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 119.15. Further support is at the January low of 114.50. If last month's low is broken OJ could take a spill to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108.40. Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is still near overbought levels on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should decline in February. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since September 2003. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since June 2004. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position since June 2003.

March cotton finds near term resistance at last week's three and a half month high of 57.45. Further resistance is found between the October high of 59.25 or even the weekly 2005 high of 60.50. Further resistance is at the psychological 65 cent level. Near term support is clustered between last week's low of 54.70 (March cotton has made higher weekly lows for seven out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a drop to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 53.70. Further support is at the daily December low of 51.38. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for most of February and then rally during the last week of the month. Commercials are holding their biggest net short position since May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since then.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.