The June NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1726.50. Further resistance is at the weekly January high of 1774.00 followed by the June contract high of 1791.50. A strong close above these highs could allow the market to challenge the psychological 2000 area. Further resistance is at the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2076.00. Near term support is located between the weekly February low of 1643.00, the weekly August high of 1635.00 (old resistance), and the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1630.00 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1397.00 and this year's current multi-year high of 1774.00). A break below this support cluster could take the market down to the weekly October low of 1523.00. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1482.30 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low of 1302.00 and this year's current high of 1774.00). Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-December. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is near overbought on the monthly chart. The NASDAQ 100 should trade in a choppy range in March. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since August of 2003. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a large net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in nearly a year.

Interest rates - June T-bonds find near term support at last week's multi-month low of 111-08. Further support is clustered between the daily November low of 110-05, the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16, and last year's current weekly low of 109-00. Failure to stabilize here could slam T-bonds down to the 2004 low of 103-02 or even a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102-16 (as measured between the monthly 2000 low of 89-01 and the 2003 all-time high of 124-10). Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 113-18. Further resistance is located at this year's current weekly high of 115-13 in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115-16 (as measured between the weekly September high of 118-21 and the weekly November low of 110-12) followed by another intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-09 (as measured between the last year's weekly high of 119-30 and the weekly November low of 110-12). If T-bonds rally past these retracement levels it could be on it's way to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 117-29 in confluence with the daily August high of 117-31 or even the weekly September high of 118-21. The June NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term daily resistance at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 5-055 premium T-bonds in confluence with the February high of 5-07 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 5-24 premium T-bonds. If the spread keeps climbing from this level it may challenge the contract spread high on the daily chart at 6-16 premium T-bonds. Near term daily support is at the daily February low of 4-14 premium T-bonds (the June NOB spread has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for three consecutive months) in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 4-12 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-27 premium T-bonds. If the spread does not stabilize here look for a decline to the daily November low of 3-00 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at a one month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are nearing oversold on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move lower in March. Commercial interests are neutral to bullish on T-bonds. Large traders are neutral. Small traders covered a big chunk of their net short position.

June T-notes find near term support at last week's nearly four year low of 107-00. A break it could keep T-notes on track for the 105-00 area or even a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104-04 (as measured between the 2000 low of 93-215 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-01). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 107-31 (June T-notes have not been able to break a previous week's high for the last six weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If notes can rally above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly rally to an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108-275 (as measured between the daily January high and the daily February low). Further resistance is located between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109-30 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 114-16 and last week's weekly low of 107-04) and the daily January high of 110-005. If the market can break thru this barrier look for a run to an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-22 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 114-16 and last week's weekly low of 107-04). Open Interest is at the highest level since August. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to decline in March. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in three years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are neutral.

International bonds - June Canadian 10-year bonds stayed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average all month. This keeps it in a bearish position. A break below the weekly February low of 111.99 could send the market down to an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.57 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 106.12 and last year's all-time high of 117.78) or even last year's weekly low of 110.04. Further support is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.51 (as measured between the weekly 2002 low of 99.55 and last year's all-time high of 117.78) followed by the weekly 2002 low of 106.12. Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 113.04 followed by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.37. Further resistance is a point higher at the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114.37. A close above it could send the market a point higher to challenge the weekly January high of 115.29.  June Euro bunds find near term support at last week's new contract low of 118.49. A clean break below it could send the market sliding to the weekly 2005 low of 116.89 in confluence with a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.70 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 111.81 and last year's all-time high of 124.60). Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 120.20. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.55. If the market can get past this mark it could test the daily January high of 121.82 or even the weekly January high of 122.65.  June London long gilts tested the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement last week. A break below last week's low of 112.78 could cause the market to tag the monthly 18-bar Moving Average at 112.21. (Gilts have not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since November 2004). After that the market could decline another point to the weekly October low of 111.20. Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 114.20. Further resistance is a point higher at the daily January high of 115.20. A break out above it could send gilts to the weekly January high of 116.08.  June Australian 10-year bonds find near term support at last week's low of 94.65. Further support is at the daily February low of 94.575. A break below this level could take the market down to the weekly November low of 94.39. Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 94.82. Further resistance is at the contract high of 94.89 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 94.895. A break out to new highs should allow the market to test the weekly 2005 high of 95.03.  June JGB's  find near term support at last week's new contract low of 134.11. Further support is at the weekly 2004 low of 133.16 in confluence with an intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 133.09 (as measured between the 1999 spike low of 125.70 and the 2003 all-time high of 145.04). Failure to stabilize here could result in a JGB meltdown to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 all-time high of 145.04) in confluence with the 2000 monthly low of 130.17. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 135.22 (June mini JGBs have made lower weekly lows for eight consecutive weeks and lower weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-January). If JGBs can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly rally to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 136.55. Further resistance is at the daily January high of 138.06 or even the weekly January high of 138.56. A break out above this high should send JGBs right on up to the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.04.

Currencies - The US dollar index signaled a trend change last week when it broke a three week low and the 9-day Moving Average closed back below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in nearly a month. Near term support is at last week's low of 89.03. A drop below it should take the market right to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 88.60. Further support on the weekly chart is about a penny away at this year's current low of 87.69. If this low is cracked the buck could hit the weekly September low of 85.97. Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 90.53. A strong close above it could allow the market to test the contract high of 91.69. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of 92.53. If the greenback can break last year's high it could surge to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Open Interest is flat. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should rally in March. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since December. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance between last week's new contract high of .8879 and the 1991 high of .8906. Further resistance is at the psychological 90 cent level. Near term support is found between the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8652 and the daily February low of .8640. A break below it could allow the market to test the daily January low of .8511. Further support is at a weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8472 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .7855 and this year's current weekly high of .8854). If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8237 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .7855 and this year's current high of .8854). Open Interest is at a two and a half month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the daily,weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to move higher for the first half of march and then sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are still holding a huge net short position. Large traders are still holding a huge net long position. Small traders are also holding a very big net long position.

The Australian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's high of .7470 in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7471. Further resistance is located between the daily January high of .7559 and the weekly January high of .7579. If the rally does not end here look for a run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7696. Near term support is at a daily Fibonacci .618 retracement in confluence with the daily February low of .7329. A break below it could result in a decline to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212 (as measured between the 2004 low and the 2005 high) in confluence with the contract low of .7204. Open Interest is almost at a two month low. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move sideways to lower in March. Commercials are turning bullish on the Aussie again. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since Christmas. Small traders are neutral.

The June Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term resistance at the new contract high of .1441 (just under fourteen and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the psychological fifteen cent mark or even the all-time weekly closing high of .1538 (about fifteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1223 (about twelve and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the January low of .1089 (just under eleven cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread does not stabilize here it could plunge to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .1035 (about ten and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar followed closely by the daily October low of .1014 (just over ten cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1.7610. After that the market should test the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7682. Further resistance is clustered between the January high of 1.7910, the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7940, and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7983. A break out above this resistance zone could send sterling shooting up to the weekly September high of 1.8492. Near term support is at the daily February low of 1.7312. Failure to stabilize here could send sterling back down to the contract low of 1.7076. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-December. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move lower for the first half of march and then trade sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are neutral to bullish on the pound. Large traders (hedge funds) are slightly bearish. Small traders are neutral.

The June Swiss franc signaled a trend change last week when it broke a previous week's high for the first time in a five weeks. If the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in a month it should confirm the trend change. Near term resistance is found at last week's high of 78 cents in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7804. A rally above it should take the market up to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7909. Further resistance is the January high of .8078. Near term support is at last week's new contract low of .7635. Further support is at the weekly November low of .7548. A close below it could send the market spiraling down to the weekly 2003 low of .7010. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves lower in march. Commercial interests are holding a new record size net long position. Large traders are holding a new record size net short position. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since November.

The Euro currency signaled a trend change last week when it broke an eight week low then reversed to rally to nearly a three week high and got just above the intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement. This created an outside reversal up on the weekly chart. Also, the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in nearly a month. A rally above last week's high of 1.2129 should clear the path for the market to make a run for the intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2225. Further resistance is the daily January high of 1.2423 followed closely by the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2435. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.1905. Further support is at the contract low of 1.1798. A break below it could cause a decline to the weekly November low of 1.1661 or even the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-December. Seasonally, the Euro should move decline in March. Commercial interests are modestly bearish. Large traders are holding a moderate size net long position. Small traders are holding a small net long position.

The Japanese yen finds near term resistance at last week's high of .008780. Further resistance is at the January high of .008990. A close above it could launch the market on a flight to the weekly September high of .009208 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009248. Near term support is at the daily February low of .008523. Further support is at the June contract low of .008455. If the June Japanese yen hits a new contract low it could fall to the weekly December low of .008252. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-December. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move higher for the first few trading days of March and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are neutral to bullish on the yen. Large traders are neutral to bearish. Small traders are neutral.

Metals - April gold finds near term resistance at last week's high of $571.00. A close above it should allow the market to challenge the contract high of $579.50. Further resistance is at the psychological $600 mark. If the market moves past this mark look for resistance at $618.50 on the weekly chart. This is based on a weekly "A,B,C" wave projection where wave "A" is the move from last year's weekly low of $410.10 to the weekly mid-December high of $538.50, wave "B" is the correction from the weekly mid-December high of $538.50 to the mid-December low of $490.10 (which was only six ticks away from an exact Fibonacci .382 retracement of wave "A"), and wave "C" is the move back up off of the mid-December low of $490.10. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". Near term support is at the daily February low of $539.00. (Gold has only broken a previous month's low once in the last nine months). A break below it could send the market down to support between the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $528.50 (as measured between the daily December low of $497.00 and the current contract high) and the daily January low of $527.00. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $497.60 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low and this year's current high) in confluence with the December low of $497.00. Open Interest is sitting flat near historic levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that gold should decline sharply in March. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-November. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since mid-September. Small traders are neutral on gold.

May silver finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $10.31. Further resistance is at a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $10.565 (as measured between the 1983 high of $14.93 and the 1991 multi-decade low of $3.505). If the rally does not end here look for silver to challenge a major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $11.715 (as measured between the September 1980 reaction high of $25.00 and the 1991 multi-decade low of $3.505). Near term support is at the February low of $9.15. (May silver has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for six consecutive months). A break below it could send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $8.995 (as measured between the daily August low of $6.862 and the current contract high). Further support is at a technical support cluster between a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $8.42 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of $5.51 and the last week's new multi-year weekly high of $10.22), the daily December low of $8.35, and the weekly 2004 high of $8.31 (old resistance). Open Interest is at the lowest level since October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is near overbought territory on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, silver should decline in March. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in five months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since October. Small traders are neutral.

May copper finds near term support at the February low of 211.50 (May copper has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for seven consecutive months) in confluence with the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below since last Spring. A break below it could send the market to the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 189.30 (as measured between the May 2005 low of 121.85 and the current contract high of 231.00). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average at 171.50 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for three years) or even the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 167.40 (as measured between the 2001 low of 60.50 and the current all-time high of 233.50). Near term resistance is at the current contract high of 231.00 followed closely by the weekly all-time high of 233.50. If this high is exceeded look for copper to challenge the psychological $2.50 mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level in thirteen months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is still overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher in March. Commercials are net long for the first time since June of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are net short for the first time since May of 2003. Small traders are still neutral.

Energies - April crude oil finds near term resistance at last week's high of $63.75. If crude oil takes out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in a month the market could rally to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $65.75. If the rally does not end here the market may test the daily February high of $69.80 or even last year's all-time high on the weekly chart $70.85. Near term support is at the daily February low of $59.20. A break below it could allow the market to test technical support clustered between the weekly 2004 high of $55.65 (old resistance), a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $55.62 (as measured between the weekly May low of $46.20 and last year's all-time high on the weekly chart at $70.85), and the weekly November reaction low of $55.40. Further support is at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $50.16 (as measured between the 2001 low of $16.70 and last year's all-time high on the weekly chart at $70.85) in confluence with the psychological $50 mark. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is near overbought levels on the monthly chart again. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should rally in March. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since December. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in two months.

April Unleaded Gas tested a Fibonacci .382 retracement on the daily chart last week. If gasoline takes out a last week's high of 174.75 and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could rally to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 180.59. Further resistance is at a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement of 198.70 (as measured between the weekly September high of 237.00 and this year's current weekly low of 136.75) followed closely by the daily February high of 199.50. Near term support is found at the daily February low of 150.00. A break below it could allow the market to test the weekly February low of 136.75. Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 131.07 (as measured between the 1998 low of 31.60 and last year's all-time high of 292.00). Open Interest is at a two month low. Seasonally, gasoline should move higher in March. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since May. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

April natural gas finds near term resistance at last week's high of 7.050 (April natural gas has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every single day since Christmas). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a run up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 8.492 followed closely by an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.623 (as measured between the daily February high of 9.910 and the current contract low of 6.540). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.698. Near term support is at last week's new contract low of 6.540. Further support is at the psychological 6.000 level. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the psychological 5.000 mark. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to dip slightly in the first half of March and then rally slightly for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders are still holding a huge net short position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since September.

Meats - April live cattle find near term support at the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 86.15 in confluence with last week's six month low of 85.95. Further support is at the July low of 83.60. If April live cattle hits a new contract low it could drop to a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 82.00 (as measured between the 2004 low of 72.65 and the weekly December high of 97.12). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 87.60 (April live cattle has made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every single day since mid-January). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a run up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 89.62. A strong close above it may allow the market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 91.87. Open Interest pulled back to a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally modestly in March. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position in six months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since mid-September. Small traders are holding the smallest short position since October.

April feeders find near term support at last week's four month low of 106.37. Further support is at the weekly July reaction low of 105.40. After that April feeders may decline to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102.95. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 107.95 (April feeders have made lower weekly highs for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every single day since mid-January). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a run up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.67. A strong close above it may allow the market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111.70. Further resistance is at the contract high of 115.00. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are near oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, feeders should decline in March. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since late July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in six months. Small traders are still holding the biggest net short position since August of 2003.

April lean hogs find near term resistance at the daily February high of 63.75 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 63.72. A break out above this hurdle could take the market back up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 66.27 followed closely by a gap on the daily chart between 66.40 and 66.80. If hogs fill the gap and keep running they could challenge the contract high of 70.40. Near term support is at the daily February low of 59.60. Further support is at the daily September low of 58.45 in confluence with the daily August low of 58.32 and the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 58.30. If April lean hogs fail to stabilize here they could test the contract low of 55.00. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to rally for most of March and then decline right at the end of this month. Commercials covered just a fraction of their huge net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a sizable net short position. Small traders are still holding a sizable net short position.

Grains - May soybeans find near term resistance at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.162 in confluence with the daily February high of $6.17. A close above it could allow the market to test the January high of $6.43. If this high is taken out look for beans to rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.716. Near term support is at the February low of $5.81. (May beans have made higher monthly lows for three consecutive moths). Further support is at the contract low of $5.594. If beans break down to close at new contract lows look for a possible decline to the major double bottom on the weekly chart between the 2004 low of $5.01 and the 2005 low of $4.984. Open Interest is near an all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should rally sharply in March. Commercial interests are still holding a very large net long position. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are holding the largest net short position in eleven months.

March soy meal find near term resistance at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.162 in confluence with the daily February high of $6.17. A close above it could allow the market to test the January high of $6.43. If this high is taken out look for beans to rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.716. Near term support is at the February low of $5.81. (May beans have made higher monthly lows for three consecutive moths). Further support is at the contract low of $5.594. If beans break down to close at new contract lows look for a possible decline to the major double bottom on the weekly chart between the 2004 low of $5.01 and the 2005 low of $4.984. Open Interest is near an all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should rally sharply in March. Commercial interests are still holding a very large net long position. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are holding the largest net short position in eleven months.

March bean oil finds near term resistance at last week's four and a half month high of 25.01. If bean oil can clear this resistance high it should rally right to the daily October high of 25.25 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 25.28. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of 26.16. Near term support is at last week's low of 22.96 (May bean oil has not been below a previous week's low for five out of the last six weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If bean oil breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly pull back to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 22.75 or even the daily February low of 22.10. Further support is at the contract low of 21.36. A break to new lows could quickly send May bean oil down to the weekly December low of 20.62. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the daily chart. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to make a strong rally in March. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in four months. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since mid-November. Small traders are neutral to slightly bullish.

May corn finds near term resistance at last week's six month high of $2.40. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.502. A strong close above this level could keep the market moving toward the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2.616. Near term support is at last week's low of $2.33 (May corn has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since the end of January). If corn breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly pull back to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.204. Further support is at the contract low of $2.086 followed by the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.024. Failure to stabilize here could result in a break to last year's low on the weekly chart at $1.86. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways in March. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since June of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since June of 2004. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in years.

May rice finds near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.745. A close above it could allow the market to test the contract high of 9.010. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.330. Near term support is at the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 8.330 (as measured between the current contract high and the daily September low of 7.230) in confluence with the daily February low of 8.320. A break below this level could take rice down to major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.910 (as measured between the current contract high and the daily September low of 7.230) in confluence with the daily December low of 7.880. Open Interest pulled back slightly from the all-time high. Seasonally, rice should decline in March. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in many years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are selling off some of their huge net long position.

May oats finds near term resistance between the daily contract high of $2.006 and the weekly February high of $2.026. A break out to new highs could send the market soaring to last year's weekly high of $2.206 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2.206. Further resistance may not be found again until the 2002 high of $2.48. Near term support is at last week's low of $1.84 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1.85 (as measured between the daily August low of $1.60 and the current contract high of $2.006). Failure to stabilize here could let the market slide to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.754. Open Interest is at the highest level since the Spring of 2004. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in March. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since May 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are the most bullish since last May.

May wheat finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $3.904. A close above it could indicate that the market is headed for the psychological four dollar mark. Further resistance is at the 2004 high of $4.24 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $4.24. Near term support is at last week's low of $3.71 in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late January). If wheat breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly pull back to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.622. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.446 in confluence with a daily chart gap between $3.456 and $3.434. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should drop in March. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in eleven months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are still bearish on wheat.

Softs - May coffee finds near term resistance at last week's high of 115.30 (May coffee has made lower weekly highs three out of the last four weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If coffee takes out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market should test the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.10. Further resistance is at the contract high of 128.50. Near term support is at the daily February low of 106.50 followed closely by the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.00. Failure to stabilize here could cause a sell off to the psychological one dollar mark. Further support is at the contract low of 92.10. Open Interest is almost at a two month low. Seasonally, coffee should rally sharply in the first week of March and then pull back to a sideways range for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in two months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are still holding a big net long position.

May cocoa finds near term support at last week's low of $1,425 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1,421. If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to the contract low of $1,366. Further support is at last year's weekly double bottom low at $1,315. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $1,475. (May cocoa has made lower weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks). Further resistance is at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,547. If the rally does not stop here May cocoa may visit the daily January high of $1,623. Open Interest is at multi-month lows. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is oversold on the daily chart. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to move sharply higher in the first half of March and then drop sharply in the second half of the month. Commercial are holding the smallest net short position in three months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

May sugar finds near term support at the daily February low of 16.22. (May sugar has made higher monthly lows for eight out of the last nine months). Further support is at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below since May in confluence with a chart gap between 15.43 and 15.34. If May sugar does not establish support here it could decline to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 13.86 (as measured between the current contract high of 19.73 and the 1999 multi-year low of 4.36). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 17.78. (May sugar has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks). Further resistance is located between the contract high of 19.65 and the weekly February high of 19.73. A strong break out to new highs could take sugar up to the 25 cent mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early October. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should decline sharply in March. Commercials are the least bearish since July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

May orange juice finds near term daily resistance at last week's contract high of 135.00. A break out above this high could send the market to the 1996 high of 138.75. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 148.30. Near term support is at last week's low of 129.60 (May OJ has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average May orange juice could test support at the daily February low of 123.50 (May OJ has made higher monthly lows for five out of the last six weeks) in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 122.95 (as measured between the daily January low of 115.50 and the current contract high of 135.00). Further support is located between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 116.55 (as measured between the weekly August low of 85.10 and this year's current weekly high of 136.00) and the daily January low of 115.50. Open Interest is at a high level. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is still near overbought levels on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should move higher in March. Commercials are neutral. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are neutral as well.

May cotton punctured the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement last week. A break below last week's low of 54 cents could take the market right down to the daily December low of 52.65. If this low is broken expect May cotton to test the contract low of 51.08. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 56.15. (May cotton has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). A rally above it could allow the market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 57.25. If May cotton can make it past this mark it may be ready to challenge the daily January high of 58.60. Further resistance is a penny higher at the daily October high of 59.60. Open Interest is down just slightly from the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is oversold on the daily chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for most of March and plummet during the last week of the month. Commercials are holding their biggest net short position in months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral to bullish on cotton.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2006 Pearce Financial, LLC
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