The June NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance between the weekly April high of 1766.00 and the weekly January high of 1774.00. If the market exceeds these highs it could quickly approach the psychological 2000 area. Further resistance is at the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2076.00. Near term support is at the April low of 1696.00 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1695.80. A break below it could pull the market down to a support cluster between this year's current weekly low of 1634.00, the weekly August high of 1635.00 (old resistance), and the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1630.00 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1397.00 and this year's current multi-year high of 1774.00). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the weekly October low of 1523.00. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is near overbought on the monthly chart. The NASDAQ 100 should trade in a choppy range for the first half of May and decline during the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding their smallest net short position since Thanksgiving. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding almost the same size of net long position that they have had since early February. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since mid-December.

Interest rates - June T-bonds made an outside reversal down on the weekly chart last week. This implies that bonds are still well entrenched in a bear market. Near term support is at last week's new multi-month low of 106-05. A break below it could keep the market headed for the 2004 low of 103-02 or even a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102-16 (as measured between the monthly 2000 low of 89-01 and the 2003 all-time high of 124-10). Further support is at the psychological 100 level. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 108-03 (T-bonds have made lower weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If T-bonds exceed a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly run to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109-22 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115-13 and this year's current weekly low of 106-05). If the rally does not end here expect the market to test is the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111-13 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 119-30 and this year's current weekly low of 106-05) or the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-28 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115-13 and this year's current weekly low of 106-05).  The June NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term support between the new contract low of 1-09 premium T-bonds and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1-00 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the psychological even money level. Near term daily resistance at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2-255 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily February high at 5-07 premium T-bonds and the current contract low of 1-09 premium T-bonds). Further resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-23 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily February high at 5-07 premium T-bonds and the current contract low of 1-09 premium T-bonds) in confluence with the late March high of 3-24 premium T-bonds. After that the spread could head back up to the daily February high at 5-07 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is now at a fourteen month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are oversold on the daily and weekly charts. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move sideways for the first half of May and then rally during the second half of the month. Commercial interests have aggressively increased the size of their record net long position for the last few weeks. At the same time, large traders have aggressively increased the size of their record net short position. Small traders increased the size of their record net short position.

June T-notes find near term support at last week's new multi-year low of 104-295. Further support is a point lower at a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104-04 (as measured between the 2000 low of 93-215 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-01). If the decline does not end here T-notes could plunge to the 2002 low of 101-295. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 106-02 (June T-notes have only broken a previous week's high once in the last fourteen weeks) in confluence with the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for the last month. If notes can clear a previous week's high and close above the 18-day Moving Average look for a quick rally to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 106-30 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 110-065 and this year's current weekly low of 104-295). If the rally does not end here expect the market to test is the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 108-185 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 114-16 and this year's current weekly low of 104-295). Further resistance is located at this year's current weekly high of 110-065. Open Interest recently hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways for the first half of May and then rally slightly in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since Halloween. Large traders (hedge funds) are now net short for the first time since then. Small traders covered some of their net short position to turn more neutral on their T-note position.

International bonds - June Canadian 10-year bonds find near term support at last week's new multi-month low of 109.72. If this market does not establish support here it could plunge to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.49 (as measured between the weekly 2002 low of 95.20 and last year's all-time high of 117.78) or even the weekly 2004 low of 106.12. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 110.75 (Canadian 10-year bonds have only broken a previous week's high once in the last nine weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If the market can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could quickly run to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.85 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115.29 and the current contract low of 109.72). If the rally does not end here expect the market to test the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.80 (as measured between last year's all-time high of 117.78 and this year's current contract low of 109.72), the daily March high of 112.99, or even the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.16 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115.29 and this year's current contract low of 109.72).  June Euro bunds find near term support at last week's new contract low of 114.91. A break below it could hammer the market down to a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.18 (as measured between the 2002 low of 104.50 and last year's all-time high of 124.60) followed by the 2004 low of 111.81. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 116.02 (bunds have made lower weekly highs for eight out of the last nine weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last two months). If bunds can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 117.55. Further resistance is clustered between the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 118.61 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current contract low of 114.91), the weekly November reaction low of 119.03 (old support), and the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 119.18.  June London long gilts tested the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement last week. Near term support is located between last week's new contract low of 109.09 and last year's weekly low of 108.55. If the market does not stabilize in this area it could result in a further decline to the 2004 low of 104.86 or even the 1999 low of 104.29. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 110.59 (gilts have made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for nine consecutive weeks!) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for two months). If the gilts can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly rally to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.76 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and the current contract low of 109.09). If the rally does not end here expect the market to test the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.41 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and the current contract low of 109.09). Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 116.08.  June Australian 10-year bonds find near term support between last week's new multi-month low of 94.22 and last year's weekly low of 94.175. Failure to stabilize at this level could result in a decline to the weekly 2004 low of 93.88. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 94.40 (Aussie bonds have made lower weekly highs for five consecutive weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If this market breaks out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a quickly rally to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.475 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 94.89 and the current contract low of 94.22). Further resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.635 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 94.89 and the current contract low of 94.22).  June JGB's  find near term support at the current contract low of 131.73. A break below it should keep the market headed for the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 all-time high of 145.04) in confluence with the 2000 monthly low of 130.17. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 132.98 (June mini JGBs have made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-January). If JGBs can break out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could quickly rally to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 135.40 (as measured between last year's double top weekly high of 141.35 and this year's current weekly low of 131.73). Further resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.68 (as measured between last year's double top weekly high of 141.35 and this year's current weekly low of 131.73).

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of 85.77. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 85.08. A weak close below 85 cents could allow the greenback to tumble down to the March 2005 reaction low of 81.27 or the 2004 low of 80.48. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 87.62 (the US dollar index has made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for about a month). If this market breaks out above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a quickly rally to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 88.35 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 85.77) followed closely by the weekly chart gap area between 88.60 and 88.91. If the rally does not end here expect the market to test is the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 89.95 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 85.77). Open Interest is still flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should be flat for most of May and rally slightly in the last few trading days of the month. Commercial interests are net long on the greenback for the first time since mid-September. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since December 2004.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's new multi-year high of .8970. Further resistance is at the psychological 95 cent mark. A strong close above 90 cents could launch the "looney" toward parity with the US dollar. Near term support is at last week's low of .8785 (the "looney" has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). A break below it could allow the market to pull back to the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8688 (as measured between the daily April low of .8513 and the daily April high of .8970). Further support is at a weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8544 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .7855 and this year's current weekly high of .8970), the daily April low of .8513, and the daily January low of .8511. Further support is at the weekly November low of .8357. Open Interest is at a six week high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to be flat during most of May with a quick spike up and back down in the middle of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since mid-March. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position in two months. Small traders are neutral on the "looney".

The Australian dollar finds near term resistance between last week's multi-month high of .7602 and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7615 (as measured between last year's high of .7992 and this year's current weekly low of .7006). If the Aussie dollar gets thru this barrier unscathed it could quickly test another price cluster between the weekly September high of .7761, the weekly June high of .7770, and the weekly April 2005 high of .7819. Near support is at last week's low of .7413 (the Aussie dollar has made higher weekly lows for the last four weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If this market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7374. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7234. Open Interest is sitting flat at low levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Australian dollar is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to decline for the first half of May and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since the beginning of February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since mid-February. Small traders are also holding the biggest net long position since the beginning of February.

The June Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term resistance at the daily closing high of .1528 (about fifteen and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the all-time weekly closing high of .1538 (about fifteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the psychological sixteen cent mark. Near term support is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1257 (about twelve and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the January low of .1089 (just under eleven cents) premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .1089 (just under eleven cents). If the spread does not stabilize here it could plunge to the daily September low of .877 (about eight and three-quarters of a cent) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1.8259. A break out above this high could send sterling shooting up to the weekly September high of 1.8492 or even the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8563 (as measured between the 2004 high of 1.9500 and last year's low of 1.7046). Further resistance is at the psychological 1.90 mark. Near support is at last week's low of 1.7806 (sterling has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early April). If this market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7796 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.7046 and last week's high of 1.8259) or the daily March high of 1.7642 (old resistance). Further support is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7509 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.7046 and last week's high of 1.8259) . After that look for support at the April low of 1.7265. (The British pound has made higher monthly lows for four out of the last five months). Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-March. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is overbought on the daily chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to decline in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since mid-September. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are also holding the biggest net long position since then.

The June Swiss franc finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of .8119. If the rally does not end here the market could run to the weekly September high of .8178. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8379 (as measured between the 2004 high of .8892 and last year's low of .7548). Near term support is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7901 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 7548 and last week's high of .8119), last week's low of .7885 (the Swissie has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early April). If this market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7766 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 7548 and last week's high of .8119). Failure to stabilize here could result in a drop to the contract low of .7633. Open Interest is staying flat at a low level. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swissie is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually declines in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in nearly three months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since the beginning of February. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position in three months.

The Euro currency finds near term support at the daily February low of 1.1905. Further support is at the contract low of 1.1798. A break below it could cause a decline to the weekly November low of 1.1661 or even the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Near term resistance is at the daily March high of 1.2278. A strong close above it could catapult the Euro up to the daily January high of 1.2423 followed closely by the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2435. Further resistance is at the weekly September high of 1.2598. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is nearing overbought territory on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Euro should move sideways to lower in April. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position that they have had since November 2004. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral to bullish on the Euro.

The Japanese yen broke out to a three month high last week. Near term resistance is clustered between last week's high of .008862, the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008868 (as measured between last year's high of .009864 and last year's low of .8252) and the January high of .00880. A close above this level could launch the market on a flight to the weekly September high of .009208 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009248 (as measured between last year's high of .009864 and last year's low of .8252). Near term support is at the huge daily chart gap between .008699 and .008647. If this gap is filled the yen could test the daily April low of .008487 followed by the June contract low of .008455. Further support is at the weekly December low of .008252. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is overbought on the daily chart. The yen has a seasonal tendency to decline for the first half of May and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests reversed positions on the yen and are now holding their largest net short position since March 2005. Large traders are holding their smallest net short position since then. Small traders are holding their largest net long position since January 2005.

Metals - June gold rallied to a multi-decade high and broke the major quarterly chart Fibonacci .618 retracement (as measured between the 1980 high of $875.00 and the 1999 low of $252.50). Near term resistance is at last week's new contract high of $658.20. Further resistance is at the psychological $700 mark. Near support is at last week's low of $622.10 (June gold has made higher weekly lows for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late March). If this market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to a major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $585.50 (as measured between the daily November low of $468.00 and the current contract high of $658.20) in confluence with the daily February high of $585.00 (old resistance). If the market does not stabilize here it could drop all the way to a major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $540.70 (as measured between the daily November low of $468.00 and the current contract high of $658.20) in confluence with the daily March low of $540.20. Open Interest is at a three month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways in May. Commercials are holding the largest net short position in three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net long position since the end of January. Small traders are holding their biggest net long position since Christmas of 2004.

May silver finds near term resistance at the current contract high of $14.74. If this high is taken out the market could hit the 1983 high of $14.93 before the trading day is out. Further resistance is at a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $16.79 (as measured between the September 1980 reaction high of $25.00 and the 1991 multi-decade low of $3.505). Near term support is at last week's low of $11.80 (July silver has made higher weekly lows for eight out of the last ten weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for two months). If silver breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could challenge the monthly April low of $11.555. (Silver has not broken a previous month's low since last August). If last month's low is breached silver could quickly plunge to a small weekly chart gap between $10.79 and $10.74. After that the market could hit the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $10.54 (as measured between the 2001 low of $4.015 and the current multi-decade monthly high of $14.575). Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-March. Seasonally, silver should move sideways for the first half of May and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in seven months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since mid-September. Small traders are neutral.

May copper finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 333.00 followed by last week's new weekly all-time high of 341.50. Further resistance is at the psychological four dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 305.90 (July copper has made higher weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks and higher weekly lows for eight consecutive weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-March). If copper breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could plunge to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 287.90 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 201.20 and last week's new weekly all-time high of 341.50). Further support is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 254.80 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 201.20 and last week's new weekly all-time high of 341.50). Open Interest is still sitting at the same level it was at in early February and also the beginning of April. Considering the huge price increase over the last few weeks, it's amazing to see the lack of change in the Open Interest! The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is still overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to decline in May. Commercials are neutral on copper. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral as well. Small traders are still neutral.

Energies - June crude oil finds near term resistance at the new all-time high of $75.35. This market is getting awfully close to two different "A,B,C" wave projections at $79.20 and $80.05. This could be a prime area to buy some put options in anticipation of a major reversal. The first "A,B,C" wave long-term projection is on the monthly chart where wave "A" is the move from the 2001 multi-month reaction low of $16.70 up to what was then an all-time high in 2004 at $55.65. Wave "B" is the correction from this all-time high to the December 2004 reaction low of $40.25 (which was only a half-dollar below the monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement of wave "A"). Wave "C" is the move back up off of the 2004 reaction low of $40.25. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". This would put a minimum target for wave "C" on the monthly chart at $79.20. The next "A,B,C" wave projection is on the weekly chart where wave "A" is the move from the weekly May 2005 reaction low of $46.20 up to was then an all-time high last year at $70.85. Wave "B" is the correction from this high on the weekly chart at $70.85 to the weekly November low of $55.40 (which was only a few ticks below a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement of wave "A"). Wave "C" is the move back up off of the weekly November low of $55.40. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". This puts a minimum target for wave "C" on the weekly chart at $80.05. Near term support is at last week's low of $70.75 (crude oil has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late March). If crude oil breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could hit the weekly February high of $69.00 (old resistance) followed closely by a current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $68.55 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of $57.55 and the current all-time high of $75.35). Further support is at a current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $64.35 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of $57.55 and the current all-time high of $75.35) in confluence with a bigger intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $64.21 (as measured between the May 2005 reaction low of $46.20 and the current all-time high of $75.35). Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is still overbought on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should rally in the first half of May and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in nearly thirteen months. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since the beginning of April 2005. Small traders are neutral.

June Unleaded Gas may be close to changing trend. Last week the market broke a previous week's low for the first time since mid-February and closed below the 18-day Moving Average. Important near term support is at last week's low of 205.00 in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for two months). If gas breaks a previous week's low again and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could pull back to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 197.41 (as measured between the contract low of 156.00 and the current contract high of 223.00). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 181.59 (as measured between the contract low of 156.00 and the current contract high of 223.00). Near term resistance is at the contract high of 223.00. Further weekly resistance is at a late September reaction high of 237.00. If this high is exceeded the market could go right on up to the psychological 2.50 area. Open Interest is at the lowest level since January of 2004. Seasonally, gasoline should move sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since mid-February. Large traders are neutral to bullish on gasoline. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in nine months.

June natural gas finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 6.490. A break below it could allow the market to test the psychological 6.000 level. If June natural gas does not stabilize here it could decline to the 2004 low of 4.760. Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 8.282 followed by the April high of 8.500 (June natural gas has made lower monthly highs for three out of the last four months). Further resistance is at the psychological 9.000 mark. A rally above this price barrier could send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.388. After that look for June natural gas to visit the daily February high of 10.050. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since September. Large traders are holding their smallest net short position since October. Small traders sold out of some of their big net long positions but they are still bullish.

Meats - June live cattle find near term support at the contract low of 72.75. Further support is at the psychological 70 area followed by the monthly 2003 low of 69.17. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 74.65 (June live cattle has made lower weekly highs for fourteen out of the last fifteen weeks). If the market can close above a previous week's high it could spark a short-covering rally and cause a run up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 78.60. A strong close above it may allow the market to run to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 82.17. Open Interest hit a new all-time high again. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should decline slightly in May. Commercial interests are holding a record size net long position. Large traders are holding the largest net short position since August. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since September.

August feeders find near term support at the current contract low of 100.35. Further support is at the monthly April low of 98.00. If this low is taken out feeders could decline to the 2001 high of 92.75 or the 2000 high of 92.20 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at a gap on the weekly chart between last week's high of 103.00 (May feeders have made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks) and the prior week's low of 103.25 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average nearly every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a run up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 105.85 in confluence with the daily April high if 105.85. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109.25. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are near oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, feeders should move sideways in May. Commercials are holding a near record net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since August. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since Thanksgiving.

June lean hogs signaled a potential trend change recently when they took out a previous week's high for the first time since late February and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since the beginning of March. Near term resistance is at last week's multi-week high of 67.80. If this high is exceeded the market could climb to a gap on the daily chart between 69.15 and 69.40 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 69.37. If the rally does not end here June hogs could be headed up to the daily March high of 71.67. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 64.35. Further support is at the daily April low of 62.75 followed closely by the daily September low of 62.00. If this low is broken June hogs could decline to the contract low of 59.50. Open Interest is sitting flat near the all-time high. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to rally until mid-May and then decline sharply for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding a new record net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net short position. Small traders are still holding their record size net short position.

Grains - July soybeans find near term resistance at last week's multi-week high of $6.14 followed closely by the daily March high of $6.184 in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.186 (as measured between the January high of $6.50 and the April low of $5.682). Further resistance is at the daily February high of $6.28. A close above it could allow the market to test the January high of $6.50. Near term support is located at the price gap on the daily chart between $5.98 and $5.91. Further support is located between the daily April low of $5.682 and the daily November low of $5.65. A break below these lows could slam beans down to the weekly November low of $5.454. If beans do not stabilize here they could drop to the major double bottom on the weekly chart between the 2004 low of $5.01 and the 2005 low of $4.984. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are near oversold on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in years. Large traders are holding the largest net short position since February 2005. Small traders are holding the largest net short position in thirteen months.

July soy meal finds near term support at last week's low of $171.10 in confluence with the daily April low of $170.80. Further support is at the weekly October low of $162.30. A break below it could crush meal down to last year's weekly low of $148.10 or the 2004 weekly low of $146.60. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $177.00. (July meal has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks). Further resistance is at the April high of $179.30. (July meal has made lower monthly highs for the last four months). If the market can take out last month's high it could rally right to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $192.40 (as measured between the December high of $205.80 and the April low of $170.80). Further resistance is at the psychological $200 mark. Open Interest is at the highest level since the beginning of last year. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean meal is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, soy meal should rally in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since February 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are still neutral on meal.

July bean oil finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 26.57. If the market continues to register new highs expect it to test the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 28.93 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 35.18 and last year's weekly low of 18.82). Further resistance is at the psychological 30 cent mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 24.75 (July bean oil has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 24.69 (as measured between the contract low of 21.66 and the current contract high of 26.57). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 23.54 (as measured between the contract low of 21.66 and the current contract high of 26.57). A break below it could allow the market to decline to the daily April low of 22.65. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in nearly two years. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since October.

July corn finds near term support at last week's low of $2.402 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.404 (as measured between the December low of $2.172 and the April high of $2.55). A break below it could allow the market to decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.314 (as measured between the December low of $2.172 and the April high of $2.55). If the decline does not end here July corn could tumble to the daily December low of $2.172. A break to new contract lows should send July corn down to this year's current weekly low of $2.034. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.496. (July corn has made lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.546 (as measured between the July 2005 high of $2.78 and the double bottom November and December lows of $2.172) in confluence with the April high of $2.55. If the market breaks this resistance barrier it should hit last year's weekly high of $2.63 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2.65 (as measured between the July 2005 high of $2.78 and the double bottom November and December lows of $2.172). Open Interest reached a new all-time high again. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since June of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since March 2004. Small traders now have a record size net short position.

July rice finds near term resistance at 8.710. This has been the high for three weeks in a row! Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.875 followed by the April high of 8.900. If this high is exceeded July rice may challenge the contract high of 9.210. A break out to new highs could take rice right up to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.330. Near term support is at the daily March low of 8.330. Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 7.880. If rice breaks this price level it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.115 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 6.110 and this year's current weekly high of 8.750). Open Interest is sitting flat. Seasonally, rice should move sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since mid-December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since Christmas. Small traders are neutral to bullish on rice.

July oats finds near term resistance at last week's two month high of $1.91 in confluence with the contract high of $1.92. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of $2.026. A break out above this weekly high could send oats racing up to last year's weekly high of $2.206. Near term support is at last week's low of $1.804 (July oats have only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the daily chart gap between $1.804 and $1.794. If July oats slip below this level it could cause a decline to the daily March low of $1.734 or the daily January low of $1.71. If these lows are broken the market could drop to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.586 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of $1.204 and last year's weekly high of $2.206). Open Interest has been flat for a couple of months now. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are near overbought on the daily chart. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move in a choppy range for the first half of May and then decline sharply for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-November. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are the least bullish since Thanksgiving.

July wheat finds near term support at last week's low of $3.51 in confluence with the daily March low of $3.51. A weak close below these lows could keep July wheat on track for a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.256 (as measured between the weekly December low of $2.924 and this year's current weekly high of $3.80) in confluence with the contract low of $3.254. A break to new contract lows may slam the market down to the weekly December low of $2.924. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.812 (as measured between the double top contract high of $4.00 and the daily March low of $3.51) in confluence with the April high of $3.82. Further resistance is at the double top contract high of $4.00. If July wheat breaks out to new contract highs it could rally to the weekly 2004 high of $4.24. Open Interest has been sitting flat for two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways to lower in May. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position in three months. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are holding a new record size net short position.

Softs - July coffee finds near term support between the daily April low of 106.60 and the daily March low of 106.25. Further support is at a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 100.25 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 84.45 and this year's current weekly high of 125.90). Failure to stabilize here could cream coffee and send it down to last year's weekly low of 84.45. Near term resistance is at the April high of 116.40. (July coffee has made lower monthly highs for three consecutive months). If the market can take out last month's high it could rally right to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 121.10 (as measured between the January high of 130.30 and the March low of 106.25). Further resistance is at the January high of 130.30. Open Interest is flat. Seasonally, coffee should rally in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since mid-February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in nearly three months.

July cocoa finds near term resistance at last week's high of $1,533. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,562. (As measured between the January high of $1,641 and the April low of $1,434). If cocoa does not stop here it could challenge the daily January high of $1,641 in confluence with a weekly intermediate Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,646 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of $1,850 and the weekly 2005 low of $1,315). Near term support is at the April low of $1,434. Further support is at the contract low of $1,390. If July cocoa closes at a new contract low it could plunge to last year's weekly double bottom low at $1,315. Open Interest is starting to pick up just a little. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to trade in a very choppy fashion in May. Commercial are holding the biggest net long position since mid-November. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders remain neutral.

July sugar finds near term support at the April low of 16.58. (July sugar has only broken a previous month's low once in the last eleven months). Further support is at the weekly February reaction low of 15.86. If this low is broken July sugar may try to fill a price gap on the weekly chart between 14.93 and 14.83 or tag the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 14.70 (As measured between last year's low of 8.20 and the current contract high of 18.71). Near term resistance is at the April 19th reaction high of 18.05. A good close above it could allow the market to test the contract high of 18.71. Further resistance is at this year's high on the weekly chart at 19.73. A strong close above twenty cents could take sugar up to the 25 cent mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since last fall. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should rally in May. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since then as well.

July orange juice finds near term support at the April low of 139.55. (July OJ has only broken a previous month's low once in the last eight months). A break below it could pull the market back down to the daily December high of 134.50 (old resistance). Further support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 129.50 (as measured between the current daily 2006 low of 116.50 and the current contract high of 150.50) in confluence with the daily March low of 129.00. Near term resistance is at the current contract high of 150.50. A strong close above it could send the market soaring to the monthly 1992 high of 161.00. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 173.90 in confluence with the monthly 1991 high of 174.25. Open Interest is sitting at the highest level in a year and a half. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is near overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should rally slightly in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since mid-December. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

July cotton finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 50.08. If the market continues to decline it could test the weekly November low of 48.25. Further support is at the weekly August low of 46 cents. Near term resistance is at the daily March low of 53.51 (old support) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 53.64 (as measured between the February high of 59.40 and the current contract low of 50.08). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 55.84 (as measured between the February high of 59.40 and the current contract low of 50.08) in confluence with the daily April high of 56.05. After that July cotton may attempt to fill the price gap on the daily chart between 56.90 and 57.60. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is oversold on the daily chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to rally sharply in the first half of May and then decline sharply for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since November 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net short position. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2006 Pearce Financial, LLC
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