The September NASDAQ 100 signaled a trend change last week. After taking out a previous week's low the market reversed to take out the previous week's high. This created an outside reversal up on the weekly chart. Also, the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in over two months. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1608.00. A rally above it should take the market right to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1613.00 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 1774.00 and this year's current weekly low of 1513.50). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1674.50 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 1774.00 and this year's current weekly low of 1513.50). If the rally does not end here expect the market to test the weekly April high of 1766.00 or the weekly January high of 1774.00. The September NASDAQ 100 finds near term support at the contract low of 1530.00 followed by the weekly June low of 1513.50. If these lows do not hold the market in place the NASDAQ 100 could decline down to the current major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1400.80 (as measured between the 2002 monthly low of 797.00 and this year's current multi-year weekly high of 1774.00) in confluence with last year's weekly low of 1397.00. Further support is at the 2004 weekly low of 1302.00. Open Interest is at the lowest level since September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is sitting near oversold on the weekly chart. The NASDAQ 100 should make a mid-month rally in July and then decline for the remainder of the month. Commercial interests are now holding their largest net long position in over a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since October. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position that they have had yet this year.

Interest rates - September T-bonds find near term support at last week's low of 105-12 in confluence with the weekly May low of 105-11. The current contract low lurks just below it at 105-03. If the market does not stabilize in this area expect a decline to the 2004 low of 103-02 or even a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102-16 (as measured between the monthly 2000 low of 89-01 and the 2003 all-time high of 124-10). Further support is at the psychological 100 level. Near term resistance is at the weekly June high of 108-15 followed by the weekly 2005 low of 109-00 (old support) in confluence with the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109-06 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115-13 and this year's current weekly low of 105-11). If the market makes it past this price barrier it could go to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-18 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115-13 and this year's current weekly low of 105-11). The September NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term support at last week's low of 1-12 premium T-bonds in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-125 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the contract low of 26/32nds premium T-bonds. If a new low is made the spread could tighten to the psychological even money level. After that the spread could drop to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-165 premium T-notes (as measured between the weekly 2005 high at 5-03 premium T-bonds and the weekly 2003 low of 5-20 premium T-notes). Near term daily resistance is clustered between the June high at 2-11 premium T-bonds, the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2-16 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily January high at 5-07 premium T-bonds and the current contract low of 26/32nds premium T-bonds), and the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-195 premium T-bonds (as measured between the March 24th reaction high at 3-23 premium T-bonds and the current contract low of 26/32nds premium T-bonds). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-17 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily January high at 5-07 premium T-bonds and the current contract low of 26/32nds premium T-bonds) in confluence with the March 24th reaction high at 3-23 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is stayed pretty flat thru the whole month of June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are oversold on the weekly chart and nearing oversold on the monthly chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to edge lower in July. Commercial interests continue to hold a huge net long position. Large traders are holding a sizable net short position. Small traders are also holding a large net short position.

September T-notes tested a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement last week. If the market breaks below last week's new contract low of 104-01 it should be headed right for the 2002 low of 101-295. Further support is at the psychological 100 mark. Near term resistance is at the weekly June high of 106-065 followed closely by the current minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106-13 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 110-065 and this year's current weekly low of 104-015). A rally above this level could take the market on up to the current minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107-27 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 110-065 and this year's current weekly low of 104-015) followed closely by the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 108-01 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 114-16 and this year's current weekly low of 104-015). After that the market could go to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 114-16 and this year's current weekly low of 104-015). Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in July. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since mid-April. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a small net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since November.

International bonds - September Canadian 10-year bonds find near term support at last week's new weekly low for the year at 109.68. Further support is found between a major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.15 (as measured between the 2000 monthly low of 95.20 and last year's all-time high of 117.78) and the contract low of 109.00. If this market does not establish support here it could be headed 2004 low of 106.12. Near term resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.82 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115.29 and this year's current weekly low of 109.68) in confluence with the monthly May high of 111.94 (Canadian 10-year bonds have only broken a previous month's high once in the last five months). A strong close above it could allow the market to run up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.77 (as measured between last year's all-time high of 117.78 and this year's current weekly low of 109.68) or even the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.15 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 115.29 and this year's current weekly low of 109.68). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.69 (as measured between last year's all-time high of 117.78 and this year's current weekly low of 109.68).  Sepember Euro bunds find near term support clustered between last week's low of 114.86, the daily contract low of 114.66, and this year's current weekly low of 114.55. If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.18 (as measured between the 2002 low of 104.50 and last year's all-time high of 124.60) or even the 2004 low of 111.81. Near term resistance is at the June high of 117.26 (bunds have made lower monthly lows and lower monthly highs for four out of the last five months). If bunds clear last month's high they could rally to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 118.39 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current contract low of 114.55). Further resistance is at the psychological 120 level.  September London long gilts find near term support at last week's one and a half year low of 108.42. If September long gilts hit a new contract low they could plunge to the 2004 low of 104.86 or even the 1999 low of 104.29. Near term resistance is at the monthly June high of 110.84 (gilts have made lower monthly lows and lower monthly highs for four out of the last five months). A rally above it could send the market up to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.35 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and last week's low of 108.42). Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.15 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and last week's low of 108.42).  September Australian 10-year bonds find near term support at last week's new contract low of 94.11. Further support is at the weekly 2004 low of 93.88. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the weekly 2002 low of 93.40. Near term resistance is at the monthly June high of 94.42 (Aussie bonds have made lower monthly lows and lower monthly highs for four out of the last five months). A rally above it should take the market to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.47 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 95.03 and the current contract low of 94.11). Further resistance is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.68 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 95.03 and the current contract low of 94.11).  September JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term support at last week's low of 131.50 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 131.47. Further support is clustered between the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 all-time high of 145.04), the current contract low of 130.21, and the 2000 monthly low of 130.17. If September JGBs do not stabilize in this area they could plunge to the 1999 spike low of 125.70. Near term resistance is at the monthly June high of 134.14 in confluence with the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 134.23 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 138.56 and this year's current weekly low of 131.55). Further resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 135.88 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 138.56 and this year's current weekly low of 131.55) in confluence with last year's weekly low of 135.90 (old support is new resistance).

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term resistance between the June high of 86.68 and the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.89 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 83.41). Further resistance is at the weekly chart gap area between 88.60 and 88.91 and followed closely by the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 89.05 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 83.41). Near term support is at last week's low of 84.77 followed by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.57. Failure to stabilize in this area could send the greenback down to the contact low of 83.27. A break to new contract lows could take the September US dollar index down to visit the weekly March 2005 reaction low of 81.27 or even the 2004 low of 80.48. Open Interest is at the lowest level since October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is near oversold on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move slightly lower in July. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since in two months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on the greenback.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .9062. A rally above it could allow the market to test the contract high of .9175. A break out to new contract highs could send the market up to the psychological 95 cent mark. After that the "looney" could hit parity with the US dollar. Near term support is at the daily June low of .8880. A break below it could knock another penny off the market and take it to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8784 (as measured between the daily April low of .8543 and the current contract high of .9175). Further support is at the daily April low of .8543. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-April. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to decline in July. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in four months. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since early March. Small traders remain neutral on the "looney".

The Australian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's high of .7628. Further resistance is at the contract high of .7770. A rally above it could encourage buyers to run this market on up to the weekly April 2005 high of .7819. After that the Aussie could hit the 2004 and 2005 highs of .7980 and .7992. Near support is at last week's one month low of .7430. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7297 (as measured between the contract high of .7770 and the contract low of .7005). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to this year's current weekly low of .7006 . Open Interest is at the highest level since December. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to rally in the middle of June but trade mostly sideways during the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since the beginning of February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since mid-February. Small traders are also holding the biggest net long position since the beginning of February.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term resistance at the new spread high of .1679 (about sixteen and three-quarters of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at a weekly "A,B,C" wave projection at .1738 (about seventeen and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. (This is based on a weekly "A,B,C" wave projection where wave "A" is the move from this year's current weekly low of .1053 (about ten a and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar to the weekly March high of .1504 (about fifteen cents) premium Canadian dollar, wave "B" is the correction from the weekly March high of .1504 (about fifteen cents) to the weekly May low of .1287 (just under thirteen cents), and wave "C" is the move back up off of the weekly May low of .1287 (just under thirteen cents). In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A"). Near term support is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1459 (just over fourteen and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1335 (about thirteen and a third of a cent) in confluence with the daily May low of .1323 (about thirteen and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread does not stabilize here it could test this year's low on the daily chart at low at .1123 (about eleven and a quarter of a cent) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound is trading either side of a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 1.9035). A break below last week's low of 1.8124 could "pound" this market into the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7806 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 1.9035). Further support is at the current major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7266 (as measured between the 2001 monthly low of 1.3652 and the monthly 2004 high of 1.9500). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.8531 (the September British pound has made lower weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If the market exceeds last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could quickly run to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8702. If the market does not stop here it could test the contract high of 1.9054. Open Interest is at a three month low. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move higher into late July and then decline during the last week of the month. Commercials are still holding a big net short position but they are the least bearish since mid-April. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a large net long position.

The September Swiss franc tested a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement in June (as measured between last year's weekly low of .7548 and this year's current weekly high of .8421) and then signaled a trend change last week when it took out a previous week's high for the first time in nearly a month and closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in nearly a month. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .8246 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8224. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8328. If the market can clear this price resistance it could test the contract high of .8497. A break below the June low of .8051 and the weekly January high of .8001 (old resistance) could cause a slide to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7881 (as measured between last year's weekly low of .7548 and this year's current weekly high of .8421). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of .7560 in confluence with last year's weekly low of .7548. Open Interest is at the lowest level since September. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves slightly higher in the first half of July and then sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position in two months. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral at the moment.

The Euro currency finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1.2856 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2874. Further resistance is at the contract high of 1.3074. A break out to a new contract high could send the Euro running for the weekly 2004 high of 1.3687. Near term support is located between the monthly June low of 1.2534 (the Euro has made higher monthly lows for five out of the last seven months) and the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2490 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.1661 and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003). Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2174 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.1661 and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003). Failure to stabilize here could send the Euro back below the 1.20 mark. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is near overbought levels on the weekly chart. Seasonally, the Euro should move slightly higher in the first half of July and slightly lower in the last half of the month. Commercial interests are still holding a huge size net short position. Large traders are holding a very large net long position. Small traders are holding the largest net long position that they have had in a year.

The Japanese yen finds near term support between the weekly June low of .008640 and the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008621 (as measured between last year's low of .008252 and this year's current weekly high of .009217). Further support is located at this year's weekly low of .008390. After that the market could decline to last year's low of .008252. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .008855 (the September yen has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market exceeds last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could quickly run to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008923. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009079. If the market can clear these retracement levels it could test the daily May high of .009331. Open Interest is at the lowest level since January. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen recently dipped into oversold territory on the daily chart. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways thru most of July and head south at the end of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position in two months. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since mid-April.

Metals - August gold signaled a trend change last week when it took out a previous week's high for the first time in seven weeks and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-May. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $618.00. If the market exceeds last week's high it should quickly run to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $630.60. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $670.80. If the market does not slow down here it may be on the way back up to the contract high of $736.00. Near term support is at the daily June low of $565.40. A break below it should take the market right down to the weekly March low of $534.50 in confluence with a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $531.50 (as measured between last year's weekly low of $410.10 and this year's current weekly high of $728.00). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to another major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $508.00 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of $372.00 and this year's current weekly high of $728.00) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $508.00 (gold has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in five years). If gold gets into this support area traders should be looking for a set up to get long. This support area could offer an extremely favorable risk/reward trade on the long side. If the market issues a reversal signal just above this level it may be worth taking a shot at the long side and placing a protective stop just below the low of the move. If the market dips below this support area first then enter the long side only if it comes back above it and once again place a protective sell stop just below the low of the move. Be prepared to re-enter if you get stopped out and the market reverses back to the upside. Sometimes it takes a few attempts if the market does not make an immediate trend change. This would also be a good price level to consider purchasing gold call options. Open Interest is sitting flat at the lowest level in nearly a year. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is near oversold territory on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways in July. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in eleven months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their smallest net long position since last August. Small traders are neutral.

September silver signaled a trend change last week when it took out a previous week's high for the first time in a month and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-May. This also allowed the market to fill the huge price gap on the daily chart between the June 13th high and June 12th low. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $11.13. A rally above it could take September silver right to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $11.78. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $13.08. If the market does not slow down here it may be on the way back up to the contract high of $15.18. A break out to new highs could put silver back on track for the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $16.79 (as measured between the September 1980 reaction high of $25.00 and the 1991 multi-decade low of $3.505). Near term support is found between the daily June low of $9.68 and the weekly June low of $9.60. This is followed by the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $8.87 (silver has only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last three years). If silver does not stabilize here it could hit further support clustered between the April 2004 high of $8.31 (old resistance), the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.20 (as measured between the 2001 monthly low of $4.015 and this year's current monthly high of $14.97), and the December 2004 high of $8.19 (old resistance). Open Interest is at a fifteen month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should move sideways in July. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since September. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since Thanksgiving.

September copper signaled a change of trend. The market tagged support at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average two weeks ago and last week it took out a previous week's high for the first time in a month and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in a month. This also allowed the market to fill the huge price gap on the daily chart between the June 13th high and June 12th low. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 342.10. If the market exceeds last week's high it could quickly hit the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 355.80. Further resistance is at the contract high of 394.00. If September copper hits a new contract high it could easily run to the weekly all-time high of 416.00. Although the copper market has been in backwardation for many months the September/December copper contract spread has been stagnant. If the spread starts to widen again in favor of the September contract consider it a bullish sign. Near term support is at the daily June low of 294.00. A close below it could indicate copper's willingness to hit the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 280.20 (as measured between the monthly 2001 low of 60.50 and this year's current all-time high of 416.00). If this support area does not hold copper could tangle with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 215.00 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last three years). Open Interest is at the lowest level since October of 2004. Copper has a seasonal tendency to rally in July. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position in two years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position in three years. Small traders are slightly bearish on copper.

Energies - August crude oil finds near term resistance at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $73.76 followed by last week's high of $74.15. A break out above it could allow the market to test this year's current all-time weekly high of $75.35. Further technical resistance may be found at two different "A,B,C" wave projections at $79.20 and $80.05. This could be a prime area to buy some put options in anticipation of a major reversal. The first "A,B,C" wave long-term projection is on the monthly chart where wave "A" is the move from the 2001 multi-month reaction low of $16.70 up to what was then an all-time high in 2004 at $55.65. Wave "B" is the correction from this all-time high to the December 2004 reaction low of $40.25 (which was only a half-dollar below the monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement of wave "A"). Wave "C" is the move back up off of the 2004 reaction low of $40.25. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". This would put a minimum target for wave "C" on the monthly chart at $79.20. The next "A,B,C" wave projection is on the weekly chart where wave "A" is the move from the weekly May 2005 reaction low of $46.20 up to was then an all-time high last year at $70.85. Wave "B" is the correction from this high on the weekly chart at $70.85 to the weekly November low of $55.40 (which was only a few ticks below a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement of wave "A"). Wave "C" is the move back up off of the weekly November low of $55.40. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". This puts a minimum target for wave "C" on the weekly chart at $80.05. Near term support is at the monthly June low of $68.10 (crude oil has made higher monthly lows for six out of the last seven months). If crude oil breaks last month's low it could decline to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $63.02 (as measured between the weekly November low of $55.40 and the current all-time high of $75.35) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $62.50 (crude oil has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since October of 2003). Further support is at the weekly November low of $55.40. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move sideways in July. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in nearly three months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since April. Small traders are neutral.

August Unleaded Gas finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 224.50. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 229.00 followed closely by the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 232.69 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 292.00 and this year's current weekly low of 136.75). If this resistance level is exceeded the market could quickly hit the psychological 2.50 area. The gasoline market is still in backwardation (closer delivery months are priced higher than deferred delivery months) and the August/September and September/October spreads both hit new highs. This is a bullish sign. Near term support is at the daily June low of 198.75. (Gasoline has only broken a previous month's low once in the last seven months). A break below it could drive the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 185.10 (as measured between the contract low of 160.75 and the current contract high of 224.50). After that gasoline could decline to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 171.99 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 136.75 and this year's current weekly high of 229.00). Open Interest is at the lowest level since November of 2003. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, gasoline should move slightly lower until mid-July and then rally until Labor Day. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since March. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since January 2005. Small traders are holding a big net long position.

August natural gas finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 6.040. A break below it could allow the market to test the weekly May low of 5.750. If June natural gas does not stabilize here it could decline to the 2004 low of 4.520. Near term resistance is at the daily June high of 7.600. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.106 followed by the weekly April high of 8.280. If natural gas exceeds this level it could hit the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.581 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 15.780 and this year's current weekly low of 5.750). Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is still oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to decline in July. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in over two years. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position since May 2004. Small traders are to bullish.

Meats - August live cattle finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 88.00. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of 97.12. If this high is exceeded the cattle market may runaway to the 2003 all-time high of 103.60. even though cattle is still in a normal carry-charge market (deferred contracts are higher than closer delivery months) the spread is tightening. August cattle is about three and a half cents below the December contract. This is the tightest that this spread has been all year. This is supportive evidence for the bulls. Near term support is at last week's low of 85.20 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early May). If this market fills the gap and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 82.85. A break below this retracement could send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 79.65. Further support is at the contract low of 74.50. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally in July. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in five months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since February. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since then.

August feeders find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 117.92. Further resistance is at last year's all-time weekly high of 119.75. If this high is exceeded feeders could soar to the psychological 130 area. Feeders are in backwardation (closer delivery months are priced higher than deferred delivery months) with the August contract currently almost three and three-quarter cents higher than the November contract. This is the widest that this spread has been all year. This is very bullish for feeders. Near term support is at last week's low of 114.45 (August feeders have made higher weekly lows for eight out of the last nine weeks and higher weekly highs for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly two months). If this market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.20. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107.05. Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are near overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should rally in July. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in five months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position in three months. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since Thanksgiving.

August lean hogs find near term resistance at the current contract high of 74.10. Further resistance is at the weekly 2005 high of 79.85. If this high is exceeded the market could the weekly 2004 high of 82.70. Hogs are still in backwardation (closer delivery months are priced higher than deferred delivery months) but the premium that August hogs have over December hogs is shrinking. This should keep the bulls on guard. If the spread begins to widen again bulls can breathe easier since it would signal that demand is growing again. Near term support is at last week's low of 69.05 (August hogs have made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly a month). If this market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 66.92 in confluence with the daily January and March highs of 67.05 and 66.97 (old resistance). Further support is at the daily February and April lows of 62.50 and 62.60 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 62.60 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 53.55 and this year's current weekly high of 77.27). If this support level does not hold August hogs could decline to the psychological 60 level. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are near overbought on the weekly chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to move lower in the first half of July and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the largest net short position since December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since January 2005. Small traders are still holding their record size net short position.

Grains - August soybeans acted bullish last week. After gapping down on Monday and taking out the year's previous low by less than a penny, the market reversed and filled the gap on the weekly chart. This created a Gap & Fill buy signal. Also, the market made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart when it took out a previous week's low and then reversed direction to take out the previous week's high. It also put the market above current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement as well. If the market can clear last week's high of $6.07 it should go right on up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.204 (as measured between the January high of $6.50 and last week's low of $5.726) or the daily May high of $6.254. Further resistance is at the January high of $6.50. If this high is exceeded the market could hit the psychological $7.00 mark. Near term support is located between last week's low of $5.726 and the contract low of $5.68. A break to a new contract low could spill the beans down to the weekly November low of $5.454. Further support is located at the major double bottom on the weekly chart between the 2004 low of $5.01 and the 2005 low of $4.984. Open Interest is at a five month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are near oversold on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should rally until mid-July and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a very large net long position. Large traders are maintaining a sizable net short position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since January.

August soy meal find near term support at last week's low of $172.30 in confluence with the contract low of $172.00. A break to a new contract low could push meal down to the weekly October low of $162.30. If this low does not offer support for the market look for a decline to last year's weekly low of $148.10 or the 2004 weekly low of $146.60. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $178.00 (August soybean meal have made lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $184.90 (as measured between the December high of $205.80 and the contract low of $172.00). A rally above it could send the market to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $192.90 (as measured between the December high of $205.80 and the contract low of $172.00). After that meal could hit the psychological $200 mark. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean meal is nearing oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, soy meal should rally until mid-July and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a healthy size net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a big net short position. Small traders are still neutral on meal.

August bean oil finds near term resistance at last week's high of 26.76. Further resistance is at the contract high of 26.91. A break out to new contract highs could keep the market running toward the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 28.93 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 35.18 and last year's weekly low of 18.82). Near term support is at the daily June low of 24.18. A break below it should take the market down to the daily April low of 22.88. Further support is at the contract low of 21.85. Open Interest is at a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to rally until mid-July, decline for about a week and then come back strong in the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in over two months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since mid-April. Small traders are holding a big net long position.

September corn acts like it may be ready to turn into a bull market again. After opening gap down at the beginning of the week the market reversed and filled the gap on the weekly chart. This created a Gap & Fill buy signal. Also, the market made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart when it took out a previous week's low and then reversed direction to take out the previous week's high This sort of price action is bullish. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.47 (September corn has made lower weekly for three out of the last four weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average expect a quickly rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.484. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.584. Near term support is at last week's multi-month low of $2.322. Further support is at the contract low of $2.262. A break to new lows could pressure September corn down to this year's current weekly low of $2.034. Open Interest is sitting flat at the all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that corn should spend the month of July working lower in a choppy fashion. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in three months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since April. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position in five months..

September rice finds near term resistance at the current contract high of 9.540. A break out to new highs could allow the market to test the psychological 10.000 area. Further resistance is at the 2004 weekly high of 11.320. Near term support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.895 (as measured between the March low of 8.500 and the current contract high of 9.540) in confluence with the daily June low of 8.880. A break below this support level could allow the market to slide to the March low of 8.500. Further support is at the psychological 8.000 area. Open Interest is at a one month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, rice should decline slightly in July. Commercial interests are holding a record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding their biggest net long position since January 2004.

September oats finds near term resistance at the current contract high of $2.03. A break out to new highs could allow the market to test last year's weekly high of $2.206. Further resistance is at the 2002 weekly high of $2.48. Near term support is at last week's one month low of $1.834 (September oats have made higher weekly lows for four consecutive weeks) in confluence with the May 30th reaction low of $1.82. If these lows are broken the market could drop to this year's current weekly low of $1.684. Failure to stabilize here could cost the market another dime and send it to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.586 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low of $1.204 and last year's weekly high of $2.206). Open Interest is at the highest level since the summer of 2000. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Oats have a seasonal tendency to drop sharply in July. Commercials are holding the largest net short position in over two years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are the least bullish since Thanksgiving.

September wheat finds near term resistance at last week's high of $3.994 (September wheat has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks), the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $4.014, and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If the market can close above last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average expect a quickly rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.182. Further resistance is at the contract high of $4.454. Near term support is at the daily June low of $3.74 (September wheat has only broken a previous month's low once in the last six months). Further support is at the daily March low of $3.622. If September wheat does not stabilize here it could decline to the contract low of $3.344. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early May. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways on July. Commercial interests are holding a neutral net long position. Large traders are neutral as well. Small traders are holding a near record size net short position.

Softs - September coffee signaled a trend change last week when it took out a previous week's high for the first time in a month and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in nearly two months. Also, the market made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart when it took out a previous week's low and then reversed direction to take out the previous week's high. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 101.80. A rally above last week's high should confirm the reversal and send it to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 104.70 (as measured between the daily April high of 118.90 and the current contract low at 95.85) or the daily June high of 105.90. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.60 (as measured between the daily January high of 131.75 and the current contract low at 95.85) in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.10 (as measured between the daily April high of 118.90 and the current contract low at 95.85). If the rally does not stop here September coffee has the potential to run to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 118.05 (as measured between the daily January high of 131.75 and the current contract low at 95.85) in confluence with the daily April high of 118.90. Near term support is at last week's new contract low at 95.85. Further support is at the psychological 90 cent level. If coffee does not stop here it could test last year's weekly low of 84.45. Open Interest is sitting flat at a multi-month high. Seasonally, coffee should drop in July. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since September 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since then. Small traders are holding a sizable net long position.

September cocoa finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of $1,649. Further resistance is at the daily January high of $1,663. A break out above this high could send cocoa soaring to the psychological $1,800 area or even last year's weekly high of $1,850. The cocoa market is looking extremely bullish right now. At the beginning of June the September cocoa contract was priced 33 points higher than the July contract. This is normal due to carrying charges. By June 20th, the two contracts were almost at the same price. By June 29th, the market was in full-blown backwardation with the July delivery contract priced 45 points higher than the September contract! Not only is this happening in New York but the London cocoa market is currently exhibiting the same thing as it has gone from a normal carry-charge market to a large price backwardation situation. Backwardation in delivery month spreads is considered a bullish sign as it shows that demand is very strong. People are willing to pay a premium to get the commodity sooner rather than later. Near term support is at last week's low of $1,534 (September cocoa has made higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). Further support is at the daily June low of $1,483. If this low is broken the market should drop right to the daily April low of $1,464. Further support is at the contract low of $1,410. Open Interest is at a five week low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to move higher in the first half of July and then go sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are surprisingly neutral on cocoa at the moment. Large traders are slightly bullish. Small traders remain neutral.

October sugar signaled a trend change when the market took out a previous week's high for the first time in seven weeks and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-May. A rally above last week's high of 16.43 should allow the market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 17.07 (as measured between the contract high of 18.37 and the daily June low of 14.97). Further resistance is at the contract high of 18.37. If October sugar breaks out to a new contract high it could be on the way to this year's weekly high of 19.73. Near term support is at the daily June low of 14.97. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 14.21 (As measured between the 2004 weekly low of 5.27 and this year's weekly high of 19.73). If the decline does not end here it could test the psychological thirteen cent mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level in nearly a year. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should decline slightly in the first half of July and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since May 2005.

September orange juice finds near term resistance at the current contract high of 169.45. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 173.90 in confluence with the monthly 1991 high of 174.25. If the market does not stop here it may run to the two dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 164.00 (September OJ has made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early June). If this market breaks below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 149.80 (as measured between the daily January low of 118.00 and the current contract high of 169.45) in confluence with the daily June low of 149.40 (September OJ has only broken a previous month's low once in the last ten months). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.65 (as measured between the daily January low of 118.00 and the current contract high of 169.45) in confluence with the daily April low of 137.25. Open Interest is sitting at the lowest level since October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is still overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should move sideways in July. Commercials are holding a decent size net short position. Large traders are holding a big net long position. Small traders are neutral.

December cotton finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 52.95. If the cotton market continues to unravel it may decline to the psychological fifty-cent mark. Further support is at the weekly June low of 46.12 in confluence with the weekly August 2005 low of 46 cents. Near term resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 55.34 (as measured between the daily June high of 59.20 and the current contract low of 52.95). Further resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 56.81 (as measured between the daily June high of 59.20 and the current contract low of 52.95). If the rally does not end here December cotton could challenge the daily June high of 59.20. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is hovering just above oversold levels on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to decline in the first half of July and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in four months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a small net short position. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2006 Pearce Financial, LLC
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