The September NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1597.50. A strong close above this high could clear the way for a run to the weekly March low of 1634.00 (old support) followed closely by the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1653.30 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 1774.00 and the weekly all-session July low of 1458.00). If the rally does not stop here the market could challenge the weekly April high of 1766.00 or the weekly January high of 1774.00. Near term support is at last week's low of 1556.00 (the September NASDAQ 100 has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1511.30 (as measured between the contract low of 1458.00 and the August high of 1597.50). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the contract low of 1458.00. A break to new contract lows could pressure the September NASDAQ 100 down to the current major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1400.80 (as measured between the 2002 monthly low of 797.00 and this year's current multi-year weekly high of 1774.00) in confluence with last year's weekly low of 1397.00. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the daily chart. The NASDAQ 100 should move lower in September. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since May of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a large net short position. Small traders are net short position as well.

Interest rates - December T-bonds find near term resistance last week's high of 111-08. Further resistance is at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-12 (as measured between last year's all-session weekly high of 119-30 and this year's current all-session weekly low of 105-11). If the rally does not end here look for the market to gain another point and challenge this year's current weekly high of 115-13 (all-session chart). Near term support is at last week's low of 109-30 (December T-bonds have made higher all-session weekly lows for seven out of the last nine weeks and higher all-session weekly highs for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107-17 (as measured between the contract low of 105-08 and last week's high of 111-08). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to major technical support on the monthly chart at the May, June, and July lows of 105-11, 105-12, and 105-14. If the market decides to take out these lows it could quickly hit the 2004 low of 103-02 or even a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102-16 (as measured between the monthly 2000 low of 89-01 and the 2003 all-time high of 124-10). The December NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term resistance at last week's high of 3-22 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 4-01 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily January high at 5-31 premium T-bonds and the current contract low of 29/32nds premium T-bonds). If the spread does not stop here it may test the psychological 5-00 mark. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2-20 premium T-bonds (as measured between the current contract low of 29/32nds premium T-bonds and last week's high of 3-22 premium T-bonds) in confluence with the June high of 2-20 (old resistance). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-31 premium T-bonds (as measured between the current contract low of 29/32nds premium T-bonds and last week's high of 3-22 premium T-bonds). If the spread does not stabilize here it could pull back to the contract low of 29/32nds premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at the highest level since May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are overbought on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to rally in September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since late February. Large traders have been holding about the same size of net short position since June. Small traders are holding the smallest size net short position in seven months.

December T-notes find near term resistance at last week's high of 107-145. Further resistance is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 108-01 (as measured between last year' all-session weekly high of 114-16 and this year's current all-session weekly low of 104-01). If the market does not stop here it may be able to challenge this year's current weekly high of 110-065 followed closely by the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between last year' weekly high of 114-16 and this year's current weekly low of 104-01) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-175 (as measured between the 2003 weekly high of 121-03 and this year's current weekly low of 104-01). Near term support is at last week's low of 106-135 (December T-notes have made higher weekly lows for four out of the last six weeks and higher weekly highs for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 105-095 (as measured between the contract low of 103-31 and last week's high of 107-145). Further support is at the contract low of 103-31. If December T-notes make a new low it could plunge to the 2002 low of 101-295. Open Interest is at the highest level since May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are overbought on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to rally in September. Commercials are holding the largest net short position that they have had on record. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since May of 2003.

International bonds - December Canadian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 114.41. If the market does not stop here it may very well try to challenge this year's current high on the weekly chart at 115.29. Further resistance is at the psychological 116 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 113.31 (Canadian 10-year bonds have made higher weekly lows for seven out of the last nine weeks and higher weekly highs for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.94 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 109.68 and last week's high of 114.95 on the weekly chart) followed by the weekly August low of 112.28. Further support is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111.69 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 109.68 and last week's high of 114.95 on the weekly chart).  December Euro bunds find near term resistance at last week's high of 117.81 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 118.39 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current contract low of 114.55). If the market does not slow down here it may run to the psychological 120 level. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.76 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current contract low of 114.55). Near term support is at last week's low of 116.95 (December Euro bunds have made higher weekly lows for seven out of the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 116.35 (as measured between the contract low of 114.00 and last week's high of 117.81). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.46 (as measured between the contract low of 114.00 and last week's high of 117.81) followed by the daily August low of 115.24. If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to the weekly May low of 114.55. December London long gilts find near term resistance at last week's daily high of 110.37. Further resistance is at the weekly October low of 111.20 (old support) and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.28 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and the current contract low of 108.31). If this technical resistance barrier does not stop the gilts look for a rally to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.11 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and the current contract low of 108.31). Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109.00 (as measured between the contract low of 108.15 and last week's daily high of 110.37). Further support is at the current contract low of 108.15. A break to new contract lows could hammer the gilts down to the 2004 low of 104.86 or even the 1999 low of 104.29.  December Australian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 94.39 in confluence with the June high of 94.39. This is closely followed by the weekly June high of 94.42 in confluence with the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.42 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 95.03 and the current contract low of 94.045). Further resistance is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.655 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 95.03 and the current contract low of 94.045). Near term support is at the contract low of 94.045. Further support is at the weekly 2004 low of 93.88. If this low does not support the market it could drop to the weekly 2002 low of 93.40.  December JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term resistance at last week's six month high of 134.89. Further resistance is at last year's weekly low of 135.90 (old support) followed closely by the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 136.18 (as measured between the 2003 weekly all-time high of 145.04 and this year's current weekly low of 130.71). If the rally does not end here JGBs may surge another point to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.29 (as measured between last year's double top weekly high of 141.35 and this year's current weekly low of 130.71). Near term support is at last week's low of 133.77 (December JGBs have only broken a previous week's low once in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 133.23 (as measured between the contract low of 130.55 and last week's high of 134.89). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.21 (as measured between the contract low of 130.55 and last week's high of 134.89) followed by the weekly August low of 131.87. If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to a technical support cluster between the current contract low of 130.55, the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 all-time high of 145.04), and the 2000 monthly low of 130.17.

Currencies - The US dollar index has spent five consecutive weeks trading both sides of the 85 cent mark in a trendless environment. Near term resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.89 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 83.41) in confluence with the July high of 87.05. Further resistance is at the weekly chart gap area between 88.60 and 88.91 followed closely by the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 89.05 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 83.41). If the buck doesn't stop here it could tag this year's current high on the weekly chart at 91.18. Near term support is at the daily August low of 84.17. Further support is at the contact low of 83.27. A break to new contract lows could slam the greenback to the weekly March 2005 reaction low of 81.27 or even the 2004 low of 80.48. Open Interest is at the highest level since early June. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move sideways for the first half of September and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding a modest size net long position. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are also neutral on the greenback.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's high of .9070. Further resistance is at the contract high of .9175. A break out to new contract highs could let the "looney" fly to the psychological 95 cent area. Further resistance will be at parity with the US dollar. Near term support is at last week's low of .8989 (the September Canadian dollar has made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks and higher weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month now). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8867 (as measured between the July low of .8742 and the August high of .9070). Further support is at the July low of .8742. A break below it could take the "looney" down to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near .8618 (the Canadian dollar has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since 2002). After that the market could find support at the daily April low of .8543 or the monthly 2004 high of .8530 (old resistance). Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should have an upward bias in September. Commercial interests are increasing the size of their net short position again. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position in two months. Small traders are still neutral on the "looney".

The Australian dollar has been in a choppy trading range either side of 76 cents for the last five weeks. If the market can clear the August high of .7711 it will encounter more technical resistance almost immediately between the contract high of .7770 and this year's current high on the weekly chart at .7789. Failure to stop here could result in a run to the 2005 high of .7992. Near term support is at the August low of .7547. (The Aussie dollar has made higher monthly highs and higher weekly lows for four out of the last five months). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7434 (as measured between the June low of .7262 and the August high of .7711). After that the market could slide to the June low of .7262. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to this year's current weekly low of .7006. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Australian dollar is nearing overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to stay flat in September. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since March of 2005. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in three and a half months.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term resistance at the August high of .1465 (around fourteen and two-thirds of a cent) premium Canadian dollar followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1489 (just under fifteen cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread makes it past this level it may run right back up to the spread high of .1679 (about sixteen and three-quarters of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. A break out to new highs on the spread could take it to the psychological 20 cent level. Near term support is the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1290 (just under thirteen cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the July low of .1182 (just over eleven and three-quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar. A break below the July low could clear the path for a drop to this year's current low on the weekly chart at .1053 (about ten and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the decline does not end here the spread may be headed for the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .0897 (about nine cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound finds near term resistance at the contract high of 1.9161. A break out to a new contract high should keep sterling on track for the 2004 high of 1.9500. Further resistance is at the 1992 high of 2.0088. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.8867. (The September British pound has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks). A drop below a previous week's low could take the pound to the August low of 1.8646. (The British pound has made higher monthly lows for seven out of the last nine months). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8520 (as measured between the June low of 1.8124 and the contract high of 1.9161). Failure to stabilize here could pound this currency down to the June low of 1.8124. If this low is broken the market may slide to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7854 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 1.9161). Open Interest is at a new all-time high! The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is overbought on the daily and weekly charts and nearing it on the monthly chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to dip in the first half September and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are also holding a large net long position.

The September Swiss franc has been held hostage in a trading range on the weekly chart since late July. Near term resistance is located between the August high of .8249 and the July high of .8270. If the Swissie can close above these highs it could rally to this year's current high on the weekly chart at .8421. A break out above this high could clear the way for the market to make a run for the 2004 high of .8892. Near term support is at the July low of .7987. A drop below it could allow the market to test the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7881 (as measured between last year's weekly low of .7548 and this year's current weekly high of .8421). Further support is at a double bottom between this year's current weekly low of .7560 and last year's weekly low of .7548. Open Interest is flat. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves higher in September. Commercial interests are holding a small net long position. Large traders are holding a small net short position. Small traders are neutral.

The Euro currency faces a technical price resistance barrier on the weekly chart at the August high of 1.2961, the July high of 1.2992, and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003. If the market can conquer this barrier it could surge to the 2004 all-time high of 1.3687. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.4000 mark. Near term support is at the August low of 1.2722. Further support is at the monthly July low of 1.2503 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2490 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.1661 and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003). If the market does not establish support here expect a drop to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2174 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.1661 and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003). Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is near overbought levels on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Euro should trade decline in the first half of September and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a record size net short position. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding a large net long position.

The Japanese yen finds near term support at the double bottom between the July low of .008540 and last week's low of .008528. A break below this double bottom should take the yen right to monthly trend line support at .008415 (as drawn between the 2002 low of .007415 and last year's low of .008252) in confluence with this year's current weekly low of .008390. Further support is at last year's low of .008252. If last year's low is violated the market could plunge to the psychological .008000 level. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .008607 (the September yen has made lower weekly highs for four consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above since early August. A break out above a previous week's high and a close above the 18-day Moving Average could cause a rally to the August high of .008827 (the yen has made lower monthly highs for three consecutive months) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008835 (as measured between the contract high of .009331 and the August low of .008528). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009024 (as measured between the contract high of .009331 and the August low of .008528). Open Interest is at a two and a half month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily chart and nearing oversold levels on the weekly and monthly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to trade in a choppy range in September. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since June of 2005. Large traders are holding a record size net short position. Small traders are neutral on the yen.

Metals - December gold finds near term support at the August low of $615.50 (all-session daily chart) and the July low of $615.00 (all-session daily chart). A break below it could allow pull the rug out from under the market and send it to the June low of $557.10 (all-session daily chart) or even the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $548.80 (as measured between the monthly 1999 low of $252.50 on the all-session monthly chart and this year's current high of $732.00 on the all-session monthly chart). Failure to stabilize here could result in a fast decline to another major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $509.10 (as measured between the 2004 low of $371.30 on the all-session weekly chart and this year's current high of $732.00 on the all-session weekly chart). Near term resistance is at the August high of $668.20 (all-session daily chart). Further resistance is at the July high of $691.20 (all-session daily chart). If gold takes out this high expect a strong surge to this year's current high of $732.00 on the all-session monthly chart. A break out to new highs could send December gold soaring to the psychological $800 mark. Open Interest is flat. The Seasonal index shows that gold should rally in September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in over a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since August 2005. Small traders have remained neutral.

December silver finds near term resistance at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $13.075 in confluence with last week's high of $13.105. Further resistance is at the psychological $14.00 mark. If the rally does not end here silver may visit this year's current high of $14.97 on the all-session weekly chart. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $11.78 (as measured between the June low of $9.64 on the all-session chart and last week's high of $13.105 on the all-session chart) followed by the daily August low of $11.50 on the all-session chart. (silver has only broken a previous month's low once in the last twelve months). Failure to stabilize here could send silver to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $10.96 (as measured between the June low of $9.64 on the all-session chart and last week's high of $13.105 on the all-session chart). If the decline does not end here silver may plummet to the June low of $9.64 (all-session daily chart) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $9.60 on the all-session monthly chart (silver has only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last three years). Open Interest is pretty flat at the moment. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should rally in September. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since early May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on silver.

December copper finds near term resistance at the August high of 369.00 (all-session daily chart). Further resistance is at the contract high of 380.00 (all-session daily chart). If December copper breaks out to a new contract high it could explode to this year's current weekly high of 416.00 on the all-session chart. Near term support is at the daily August low of 326.50 on the all-session chart. (December copper has only broken a previous month's low once in the last thirteen months). A break below last month's low could result in a decline to the daily June low of 284.10 on the all-session chart followed closely by the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 280.15 (as measured between the 2001 low of 60.35 on the all-session monthly chart and this year's current all-time high of 416.00 on the all-session monthly chart). Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 280.15 (as measured between the 2001 low of 60.35 on the all-session monthly chart and this year's current all-time high of 416.00 on the all-session monthly chart). If copper does not establish support here it could challenge the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 240.00 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last three years). The copper market is still in backwardation with the December contract trading at a premium over the March contract. However, the premium shrank is at the lowest level since mid-April. This should be a warning to copper bulls. Open Interest is now at the lowest level since July of 2004. Copper has a seasonal tendency to be flat in September. Commercials are holding the largest net long position in nearly four years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest size net short position that they have had since May of 2003. Small traders are neutral on copper.

Energies - October crude oil is trading the lowest level since mid-June. Near term support is at last week's low of $68.65 (all-session chart). If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $64.30 (crude oil has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since October of 2003) in confluence with the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $64.19 (as measured between the November low of $55.40 on the all-session weekly continuous chart and the current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session weekly continuous chart). This will be a critical support level since it would put crude oil nearly fourteen dollars off from the current all-time high. Since breaking out above the 1990 Gulf War high in 2004, there have only been two times when crude oil has corrected fourteen dollars or more off of the all-time high. This will be a do-or-die price level that could determine the fate of the long-term trend in crude oil. If support holds down at that level it could offer a fantastic risk/reward set up on the long side of the market. A normal carrying charge is clearly present in this market. Going out as far as the September 2007 contract, every crude oil contract for delivery is trading at a premium to the delivery month that precedes it and the spreads are all at their contract highs. This is favorable for the bear camp since it may indicate that supply is not as restricted as previously thought. Or does it mean that the market is expecting the current high prices to persist for quite some time and therefore carrying charges are being tacked on to the already expensive prices? Time will tell. From a contrarians view point, it's the best-case-scenario for a shorting opportunity since you are actually rewarded instead of penalized for sell further out delivery contracts. You get the carrying charge premium. On the other hand, traders on the long side of crude oil face an uphill battle as the constant carrying change has to be overcome since the contracts must be continually rolled over at premium prices. Near term resistance is at last week's all-session high of $72.20 (October crude oil has made lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above since early August. A break out above a previous week's high and a close above the 18-day Moving Average could cause a rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $76.14 (as measured between the contract high of $80.37 and the August low of $69.30). Further resistance is at current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session weekly continuous chart. After that the market faces a gauntlet of price resistance at a major technical resistance area clustered between two different "A,B,C" wave projections at $79.20 and $80.05 and the current contract high of $80.37 (all-session daily chart). This could be a prime area to buy some put options in anticipation of a major reversal. The first "A,B,C" wave long-term projection is on the monthly chart where wave "A" is the move from the 2001 multi-month reaction low of $16.70 up to what was then an all-time high in 2004 at $55.65. Wave "B" is the correction from this all-time high to the December 2004 reaction low of $40.25 (which was only a half-dollar below the monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement of wave "A"). Wave "C" is the move back up off of the 2004 reaction low of $40.25. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". This would put a minimum target for wave "C" on the monthly chart at $79.20. The next "A,B,C" wave projection is on the weekly chart where wave "A" is the move from the weekly May 2005 reaction low of $46.20 up to was then an all-time high last year at $70.85. Wave "B" is the correction from this high on the weekly chart at $70.85 to the weekly November low of $55.40 (which was only a few ticks below a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement of wave "A"). Wave "C" is the move back up off of the weekly November low of $55.40. In bull markets, wave "C" is usually at least the same size as wave "A". This puts a minimum target for wave "C" on the weekly chart at $80.05. If the market does not stop at this price barrier it could easily hit the $85 or $90 mark. Open Interest is just below the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should rally in September. Commercial interests covered some of their huge net short position but they still remain extremely bearish. Large traders are still holding a very large net long position. Small traders are neutral.

October Unleaded Gas finds near term support at last week's new multi-month low of 172.65 (all-session chart) in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 174.34 (as measured between this year's current low of 136.75 on the all-session weekly chart and this year's current high of 235.15 on the all-session weekly chart). Failure to stabilize here could put gasoline in the tank and send it down to challenge this year's current low of 136.75 on the all-session weekly chart. A break to new lows for the year could send the market as low as the December 2004 low of 103.50. Near term resistance is at last week's all-session high of 186.60 (October gasoline has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for four consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since early August). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average look for a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 202.60 (as measured between the contract high of 221.10 on the all-session daily chart and last week's low of 172.65 on the all-session daily chart). Further resistance is at the contract high of 221.10 (all-session chart). A break out to new contract highs should allow October gasoline to visit this year's current high of 235.15 on the all-session weekly continuous chart. For the first time in months, the gasoline market has changed from being in backwardation to a regular carrying charge market. This is bearish for the market as it would suggest that demand has cooled, supplies have increased, or both. Either way, it does not give comfort to the bulls in this market. Open Interest is at the lowest level in ten years! The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, gasoline should move lower in the first half of September and then move higher in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since January of 2005. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since December 2004. Small traders the least bullish in five months.

October natural gas finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 5.770 (all-session chart). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 5.390 (all-session chart). If October natural gas makes a new low for the year it could decline to the 2004 low of 4.520. The October/November natural gas spread widened to new highs. This increase in carry charge is a bearish sign. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 6.989 on the all-session chart. (October natural gas has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks and lower weekly lows for four consecutive weeks). A strong close above a previous week's high could allow for a rally to the daily August high of 8.850 (all-session chart). If this high is taken out the market could be headed to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.359 (as measured between last year's all-time high of 15.780 on the all-session weekly continuous chart and this year's current low of 5.390 on the all-session weekly continuous chart). The Open Interest reached is at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to stay flat for the first half of September and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a new record size net short position. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are neutral.

Meats - October live cattle finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 94.40. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of 97.12. If this high is exceeded the cattle market could surge to the 2003 all-time high of 103.60. The cattle market has been in backwardation but the spread is quickly eroding. In early August, October live cattle was priced 202 points over the December contract. As of August 30th, the premium has contracted to a spread of just ten points. This should be a cautionary sign for bulls. Near term support is at last week's low of 91.90 (October live cattle has made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 88.02 (as measured between the contract low of 78.35 and the August high of 94.40) in confluence with the August low of 87.55 (October live cattle has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for four consecutive months). A break below it could allow the market to decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.32 (as measured between the contract low of 78.35 and the August high of 94.40). Open Interest is sitting flat at the lowest level since January. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is overbought on the daily chart and very close to it on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally in the first half of September and then make a modest decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in months. Large traders are still holding a large net long position. Small traders are still holding a sizable net short position.

October feeders find near term resistance at the August high of 118.25. Further resistance is at the all-time weekly high of 119.75. If this high is exceeded feeders could soar to the psychological 130 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 116.00 (October feeders have made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the August low of 112.70. (October feeders have made higher monthly highs for three out of the last four months and higher monthly lows for four consecutive months). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.02 (as measured between the contract low of 99.35 and the August high of 93.30). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.57 (as measured between the contract low of 99.35 and the August high of 93.30). Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are near overbought territory on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should rally for most of September and then decline at the end of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in nearly eight months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since January. Small traders are currently holding a net short position in feeders.

October lean hogs find near term support at last week's low of 64.70 (October hogs have made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 62.05 (as measured between the January low of 53.35 and the current contract high of 67.45). Further support is at the August low of 60.70. (October hogs have made higher monthly lows for six out of the last seven months and higher monthly highs for five out of the last six months). A break below it could allow the market to decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 58.75 (as measured between the January low of 53.35 and the current contract high of 67.45) followed closely by the July low of 58.40. Hogs are still in backwardation (closer delivery months are priced higher than deferred delivery months). This is bullish for the market. Near term resistance is at the contract high of 67.45. A break out to new contract highs could send the hog market screaming up to the weekly August high of 72.10 on the weekly continuous chart. If this high is cleared the pigs could fly to the June high of 77.25 on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are overbought on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to rally sharply in the first week of September and then move sideways for the remainder of the month. Commercials are holding the largest net short position in two months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position in two months. Small traders are still holding their record size net short position.

Grains - November soybeans find near term support at last week's new contract low of $5.492 (all-session chart). As long as the market continues to decline it may be headed to the major double bottom on the weekly chart between the 2004 low of $5.01 and the 2005 low of $4.984. Failure to establish support here could result in a collapse to the 2002 low of $4.154 (all-session chart). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $5.58 (November beans have made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks and lower weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-July). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average look for a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $5.842 (as measured between the July high of $6.41 on the all-session daily chart and the current contract low of $5.492 on the all-session daily chart). Further resistance is at a gap on the all-session daily chart between $5.906 and $5.932 in confluence with the June low of $5.91 on the all-session daily chart (old support). If the rally does not end here beans could be on their way to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.06 (as measured between the July high of $6.41 on the all-session daily chart and the current contract low of $5.492 on the all-session daily chart) in confluence with the August high of $6.08 (all-session chart). Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should decline in September. Commercial interests are still holding a very large net long position. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position in four months. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position that they have had all year.

December soy meal find near term support at the contract low of $160.40 (all-session chart). Further support is at this year's current low on the weekly continuous chart at $156.50 (all-session chart). If soy meal continues it's descent it may be headed to last year's weekly low of $148.10 (all-session chart) or the 2004 weekly low of $146.60 (all-session chart). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $163.30 (December soybean meal has made lower weekly highs for eleven out of the last twelve weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late June). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average expect a quickly rally to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $172.10 (as measured between the June high of $191.00 and the current contract low of $160.40). Further resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $179.30 (as measured between the June high of $191.00 and the current contract low of $160.40). Open Interest is hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean meal is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, soy meal should move lower in September. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since February of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral on meal.

December bean oil finds near term support between last week's multi-month low of low of 24.98 (all-session chart) and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 24.81(as measured between the December low of 22.41 and the contract high of 28.70). Further support is found between the daily April low of 23.57 (all-session chart) and an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 23.31 (as measured between the December low of 20.62 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of 27.66 on the weekly continuous chart). Failure to establish support here could bring the market down to the twenty-two cent mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 25.78 (December bean oil has made lower weekly highs for five out of the last seven weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed below almost every day for the last month. If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 18-day Moving Average expect a quickly rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 26.40 (as measured between the contract high of 28.70 and the August low of 24.98). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 27.28 (as measured between the contract high of 28.70 and the August low of 24.98). If the rally does not end here December bean oil just might intend to challenge the contract high of 28.70 (all-session chart) followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 28.93 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 35.18 and last year's weekly low of 18.82). Open Interest quietly slid to a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is oversold on the daily chart. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to rally in the first half of September and then decline at the end of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since April. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are also holding the smallest net long position since April.

December corn finds near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.482. If the market tops this high look for it to tag the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.544 (as measured between the contract high of $2.88 and the current contract low of $2.334). Further resistance is at the August high of $2.66 (all-session chart) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.672 (as measured between the contract high of $2.88 and the current contract low of $2.334). If December corn clears this resistance level it might pop up to the July high of $2.844 (all-session chart) or even test the contract high of $2.88 (all-session chart). Near term support is at the daily August low of $2.334 (all-session chart). Further support is located between the August low of $2.166 on the weekly continuous chart and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.156 (as measured between last year's low of $1.856 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of $2.642 on the weekly continuous chart). Failure to establish support here could bring the market down to this year's low of $2.034 on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is sitting flat near the all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that corn should decline in September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in five months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since late March. Small traders are holding a sizable net short position.

November rice finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of low of 8.720 (all-session chart). Further support is at the March low of 8.610 (all-session chart). If this low does not support the rice market it may decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.440 (as measured between last year's low of 6.110 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of 9.880 on the weekly continuous chart). If rice does not stabilize here it could easily test the psychological 8.000 mark. Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.610 (as measured between the contract high of 10.160 and last week's low of 8.720). A strong close above it could allow the market to challenge the contract high of 10.160. Further resistance is at the 2004 weekly high of 11.320. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is near oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, rice should move higher in September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since the beginning of May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a huge net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position in nearly four months.

December oats find near term support at the August low of $1.802 (all-session chart). More support lurks just below it at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.764 (as measured between the January low of $1.57 and the current contract high of $2.08). If oats do not establish support in this area it may decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.632 (as measured between the 2004 low of $1.204 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of $2.324 on the weekly continuous chart). Further support is at the January low of $1.57 (all-session chart). Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1.926 (as measured between the contract high of $2.13 and the August low of $1.802) in confluence with last week's high of $1.94. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.004 (as measured between the contract high of $2.13 and the August low of $1.802). A good close above two dollars could encourage December oats to run up to the contract high of $2.13. Open Interest is at a five month low. Oats have a seasonal tendency to rally in the first week of September, move sideways for two weeks, and then decline in the last week of September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in four months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since early June. Small traders are neutral on oats.

December wheat finds near term resistance clustered between last week's high of $4.244 (all-session chart), the August high of $4.252 (all-session chart), and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.30 (as measured between the contract high of $4.63 and the August low of $3.766). A strong close above this resistance area could clear the path for a return to the contract high of $4.63. If December wheat hits a new contract high it could be gearing up for a run to the psychological five dollar area. Near term support is at the August low of $3.766. Further support is at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.40 (as measured between between the 2004 low of $2.824 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of $4.33 on the weekly continuous chart). A break below it could allow the market to decline to this year's current low of $3.214 on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest has been flat for two months now. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways in September. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position that they have had yet this year. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position in seven months. Small traders are holding largest net short position that they have ever had.

Softs - December coffee finds near term support at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104.10 ( as measured between the contract low of 98 cents and the August high of 114.00). A break below this retracement could send coffee down to test the contract low of 98 cents. If December coffee makes a new low expect it to hit this year's current low on the weekly continuous chart at 93.50. Further support is at the weekly December low of 90.75. Near term resistance is at the August high of 114.00. Further resistance is at the May high of 119.70 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.25 (as measured between the daily January high of 134.00 and the current contract low at 98 cents). If the rally does not end here coffee may visit this year's current high on the weekly continuous chart at 125.90. The Robusta coffee (traded on the EURONEXT Commodities exchange in Europe) has been the coffee market to be in! This market has substantially outperformed the New York coffee market on a comparative basis. Robusta coffee has surged to the highest price since March of 1999, the market is in backwardation (front month delivery contracts are trading at a premium to deferred contracts), and the price structure has been very bullish: On the monthly chart, November Robusta coffee has only broken a previous month's low once in the last five months, it has made higher monthly highs for five consecutive months, and it has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since October of 2004. On the weekly chart, November Robusta coffee has only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks and it has made higher weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks. On the daily chart, November Robusta coffee has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month. Coffee traders should be long in the Robusta coffee as long as it continues to outperform the New York coffee market. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early May. Seasonally, coffee should be flat to lower in September. Commercials are holding the biggest net short coffee position since the beginning of May. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on the coffee market.

December cocoa finds near term support at last week's new contract low of $1,458. Further support is at the August low of $1,380 on the weekly continuous chart. If the market continues to decline it may test last year's low of $1,315 on the weekly continuous chart or even the 2004 low of $1,299 on the weekly continuous chart. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $1,508. (December cocoa has made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks). A close above a previous week's high could allow the market to creep back up to the daily August high of $1,615. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,649 (as measured between the contract high of $1,767 and the current contract low of $1,458). If December cocoa can overcome this price barrier it may have a chance of testing the contract high of $1,767. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is near oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to rally thru most of September and drop in the last week of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-June. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

October sugar finds near term support at last week's low of 11.26. Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.23 (As measured between the 1999 low of 4.36 on the monthly continuous chart and this year's high of 19.73 on the monthly continuous chart). If sugar does not rebound from this support level it may decline to the 2004 high of 9.37 (old resistance) or the 2003 high of 9.13 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 12.35 (October sugar has made lower weekly highs for eight consecutive weeks and lower weekly lows for seven out of the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-July). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average the down trend could end and send October sugar up to a major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 13.55 (as measured between the July major reaction high of 17.25 and the August low of 11.26). Further resistance is clustered at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 14.96 (as measured between the July major reaction high of 17.25 and the August low of 11.26), the June low of 14.97 (old support), and the August high of 15 cents. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move sideways in September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

November orange juice may have made a significant trend reversal last week. After opening gap up on the daily and weekly charts, the market reversed and filled the gap the same day. This triggered a Gap & Fill sell signal on both time frames. After taking out the previous week's high OJ then closed below the previous week's low. This created an outside reversal down on the weekly chart. Additionally, the market closed below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since late July. Near term support is last week's low of 177.50. If the market breaks it, traders may want to consider getting short and entering a protective buy stop to liquidate if it breaks to new contract highs. Further technical support is at the daily August low of 168.50 (November OJ has only broken a previous month's low once in the last twelve months) followed closely by an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 166.70 (as measured between the July reaction low of 153.50 and the current contract high of 188.05) and the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (OJ has closed below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average just one time since it closed above it in mid-September). Further support is at the July reaction low of 153.50. Near term resistance is at the contract high of 188.05. Further resistance is at the two dollar mark. If the market does not stop here it should take on the 1990 multi-decade high of 206.50. Open Interest is up a bit from last month. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should decline in the first half of August and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since mid-May. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

December cotton finds near term resistance at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 57.60 (as measured between the daily February high of 61.55 and the contract low of 51.20) in confluence with the daily August high of 57.75. Further resistance is located between the daily June high of 59.20 and the daily April high of 59.60. If December cotton can clear these highs it may challenge the contract high of 61.55. Near term support is at last week's low of 53.81 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 53.70. If this support zone is violated December cotton may decline to the contract low of 51.20. A break to new contract lows could cause the entire cotton market to unravel and plummet to this year's weekly low of 45 cents. Open Interest is flat. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to trade in a choppy range in September. Commercials are holding a small net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short position since mid-June. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2006 Pearce Financial, LLC
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