The December NASDAQ 100 has not hit all-time highs like the Dow or even multi-year highs like the S&P 500 but it is still benefiting from the bull run in equities. Near term resistance at last week's high of 1706.00. If this high is exceeded expect a swift rally to the weekly April high of 1766.00 or the weekly January high of 1774.00. If the NASDAQ 100 breaks out to new highs for the year it could hit the psychological 2000 mark in a short amount of time. Near term support is at last week's all-session low of 1638.00 (the December NASDAQ 100 has made higher weekly lows for seven out of the last eight weeks) in confluence with the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for two months). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1566.20 (as measured between the contract low of 1479.75 and last week's high of 1706.00). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the contract low of 1479.75. Open Interest is at a multi-month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the daily chart. The NASDAQ 100 should make an important seasonal low by mid-October and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since June. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their smallest net short position since mid-July. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since June.

Interest rates - December T-bonds find near term resistance at the September high of 113-11. Further resistance is about a point higher at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-12 (as measured between last year's all-session weekly high of 119-30 and this year's current all-session weekly low of 105-11). If the rally does not end here look for the market to tack on another point and challenge this year's current weekly high of 115-13 (all-session chart). Near term support is at last week's low of 111-17 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average most of the time since early July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-08 (as measured between the contract low of 105-08 and the September high of 113-11). Further support is at the September low of 109-16 on the monthly continuous chart. (T-bonds have made higher monthly lows for the last four months). A break below last month's low could slam December T-bonds down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108-11 (as measured between the contract low of 105-08 and the September high of 113-11) or even the daily August low of 108-05. The December NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term resistance at the new spread high of 4-15 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at this year's current high of 5-01 on the weekly continuous chart in confluence with last year's all-time high of 5-03 on the weekly continuous chart. Near term support is at the daily September low of 3-09 (the NOB spread has made higher lows for four consecutive months) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 3-04 premium T-bonds (as measured between the current contract low of 29/32nds premium T-bonds and the current spread high of 4-15 premium T-bonds). Further support is at the daily August low of 2-12 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-09 premium T-bonds (as measured between the current contract low of 29/32nds premium T-bonds and the current spread high of 4-15 premium T-bonds). Open Interest is flat. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to rally in the first week of October and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since late February. Large traders have been holding the smallest of net short position since mid-July. Small traders are holding the smallest size net short position since August.

December T-notes find near term resistance at the September high of 108-24. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 110-065 followed closely by the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 114-16 and this year's current weekly low of 104-01) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-175 (as measured between the 2003 weekly high of 121-03 and this year's current weekly low of 104-01). If the market breaks thru this price barrier it could surge to another weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112-205 (as measured between the 2004 weekly high of 117-31 and this year's current weekly low of 104-01). Near term support is at last week's low of 107-19 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average most of the time since early July). If the market breaks last week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 106-295 (as measured between the contract low of 103-31 and the September high of 108-24). Further support is at the September low of 106-22 on the monthly continuous chart. (T-notes have made higher monthly lows for three consecutive months). A break below last month's low could send December T-notes down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 105-255 (as measured between the contract low of 103-31 and the September high of 108-24) in confluence with the daily August low of 105-24. Open Interest is sitting flat at high levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are overbought on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways to lower until just after the middle of October and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are still holding the largest net short position that they have had on record. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since late July.

International bonds - December Canadian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at the new contract high of 115.71. If the market does not stop here it could be on it's way to the all-time high of 117.78. A break out to new all-time highs could take the Canadian 10-year bonds up to the psychological 120 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 114.31 (Canadian 10-year bonds have made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113.41 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 109.68 and the current contract high of 115.71 on the weekly chart). Further support is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111.98 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 109.68 and the current contract high of 115.71 on the weekly chart).   December Euro bunds find near term resistance at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 118.39 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current contract low of 114.55) followed by the September high of 118.70. If the market does not slow down here it may run to the psychological 120 level. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.76 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current contract low of 114.55). Near term support is at last week's low of 117.70. (December Euro bunds have made higher weekly lows for five out of the last seven weeks). If the market makes a clean break below a previous week's low expect an immediate decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 116.90 (as measured between the contract low of 114.00 and the September high of 118.70) or even the daily September low of 116.69. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.80 (as measured between the contract low of 114.00 and the September high of 118.70).  December London long gilts find near term resistance between the weekly September high of 110.76 and the weekly June high of 110.84. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.28 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 108.31). If gilts do not slow down here they could rally to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.11 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 108.31). Near term support is at the daily September low of 108.96. Further support is located between this year's current weekly low of 108.31and the daily contract low of 108.15. A break to new contract lows could hammer the gilts down to the 2004 low of 104.86 or even the 1999 low of 104.29.  December Australian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at the current contract high of 94.565. Further resistance is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.655 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 95.03 and the current contract low of 94.045). Near term support is at last week's low of 94.445. (December Aussie bonds have made higher weekly lows for five out of the last seven weeks). If the market makes a clean break below a previous week's low expect an immediate decline to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.365 (as measured between the contract low of 94.045 and the current contract high of 94.565). Further support is at the weekly September low of 94.26 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.245 (as measured between the contract low of 94.045 and the current contract high of 94.565). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the contract low of 94.045.  December JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term resistance at the September high of 135.38. Further resistance is at last year's weekly low of 135.90 (old support) followed closely by the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 136.18 (as measured between the 2003 weekly all-time high of 145.04 and this year's current weekly low of 130.71). If the rally does not end here JGBs may surge another point to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.29 (as measured between last year's double top weekly high of 141.35 and this year's current weekly low of 130.71). Near term support is at last week's low of 134.07 (December JGBs have only broken a previous week's low twice in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-August). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 133.60 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 130.71 and the September high of 135.38). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.49 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 130.71 and the September high of 135.38). If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to a technical support cluster between the current contract low of 130.55, the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 all-time high of 145.04), and the 2000 monthly low of 130.17.

Currencies - The US dollar index has been tethered to the 85 and a half cent mark for months. Near term resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.89 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 83.41) in confluence with the weekly July high of 87.05. Further resistance is at the weekly chart gap area between 88.60 and 88.91 followed closely by the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 89.05 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 83.41). If the buck doesn't stop here it could tag this year's current high on the weekly chart at 91.18. Near term support is at the weekly August low of 84.17. Further support is at the contact low of 83.27. A break to new contract lows could slam the greenback to the weekly March 2005 reaction low of 81.27 or even the 2004 low of 80.48. On the quarterly chart, the US dollar index made an inside bar during the third quarter and had a range of less than half of the size of the second quarter's range. A breakout of last quarter's range (high of 97.05, low of 84.17) could start the next strong trend in the dollar. Momentum traders may want to consider "bracketing" the market with a buy stop above last quarter's high and a sell stop below last quarter's low. The idea is to enter the market with whichever order is elected first and use the other order as the initial protective stop on the position. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the US dollar index is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move sideways in a choppy range for most of October. Commercial interests are holding a modest size net long position. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are still neutral as well.

The Canadian dollar has been stuck in a trading range for the last several weeks. Near term resistance at the weekly September high of .9070. Further resistance is at the contract high of .9175. A break out to new contract highs could let the "looney" fly to the psychological 95 cent area. Near term support is at last week's low of .8863. A break below it could pull the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8804 (as measured between the April low of .8575 and the contract high of .9175) or the daily July low of .8783. If the "looney" does not stabilize here it could lose another penny and challenge the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near .8665 (the Canadian dollar has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since 2002). After that the market could find support at the monthly 2004 high of .8530 (old resistance). Just like the US dollar index, the Canadian dollar made an inside bar on the quarterly chart last quarter. This may present an opportunity for breakout traders to "bracket" the market with a buy stop above last quarter's high and a sell stop below last quarter's low. The strategy consists of entering the market with whichever order is elected first and using the other order as the initial protective stop on the position. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should trade in a choppy range in October. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in quite some time. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since July. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position in eleven months.

The Australian dollar finds near term support at last week's low of .7404. A clean break below it could cause a decline to the weekly June low of .7262. Further support is at this year's current weekly low of .7006. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .7482 (the December Australian dollar has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for over a month. A break out above a previous week's high and a close above the 18-day Moving Average could cause a rally to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7588 (as measured between the daily September high of .7701 and last week's low of .7404). Further resistance is at the daily September high of .7701. If the December Australian dollar takes out last month's high it will encounter more technical resistance between the contract high of .7760 and this year's current high on the weekly chart at .7789. The Aussie dollar made an inside bar on the quarterly chart during the third quarter and had a range of less than half of the size of the second quarter's range. A breakout of last quarter's range (high of .7718, low of .7393) could be an important signal regarding the next trend for the Aussie the dollar. Momentum traders may want to consider "bracketing" the market with a buy stop above last quarter's high and a sell stop below last quarter's low with the objective to enter the market with whichever order is elected first and use the other order as the initial protective stop on the position. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-July. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Australian dollar is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to decline in the first half of October and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since July. Large traders (hedge funds) are reducing the size of their huge net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position in three months.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term resistance at the September high of .1558 (just over fifteen and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at this year's weekly high of .1612 (just over sixteen cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread makes it past this level it may visit the daily contract spread high of .1714 (just over seventeen cents) premium Canadian dollar. A break out to new highs on the spread could take it to the psychological 20 cent level. Near term support is at the September low of .1330 (about thirteen and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the July low of .1223 (about twelve and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar. A break below the July low could clear the path for a drop to this year's current low on the weekly chart at .1053 (about ten and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the decline does not end here the spread may be headed for the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .0897 (about nine cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound has been a trading range for the last few weeks. Near term resistance is at the weekly September high of 1.9090. Further resistance is located between the weekly August high of 1.9161 and the daily contract high of 1.9190. If the December British pound hits a new contract high look for a run to the 2004 high of 1.9500. Further resistance is at the 1992 high of 2.0088. Near term support is at the weekly September low of 1.8604. A clean break below it could pressure sterling down to the weekly June low of 1.8124. If this low is broken the market may slide to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.7854 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 1.9161). Open Interest is at a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is nearing oversold territory on the daily chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for the first half October and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are still holding a near-record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are also holding a large net long position.

The September Swiss franc finds support on a weekly chart between the weekly September low of .7923 and the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7881 (as measured between last year's weekly low of .7548 and this year's current weekly high of .8421). Further support is at a double bottom between this year's current weekly low of .7560 and last year's weekly low of .7548. Near term resistance is at the September high of .7204 on the monthly continuous chart. (The Swiss franc has made lower monthly highs for four consecutive weeks). Further weekly resistance is located between the August high of .8249 and the July high of .8270. If the Swissie can close above these highs it could rally to this year's current high on the weekly chart at .8421. A break out above this high could clear the way for the market to make a run for the 2004 high of .8892. Like many of the other currencies, the Swiss franc made an inside bar on the quarterly chart last quarter. This may present an opportunity for breakout traders to "bracket" the market with a buy stop above last quarter's high and a sell stop below last quarter's low. The strategy consists of entering the market with whichever order is elected first and using the other order as the initial protective stop on the position. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swissie is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves slightly lower for the first half October and then sideways for the second half of the month. Commercial interests are starting to lighten up on their sizable net long position. Large traders reduced the size of their huge net short position. Small traders are holding their largest net short position in six months.

The Euro currency finds near term support at last week's low of 1.2618. A break below it should take another penny off the market and allow it to test the daily July low of 1.2581. Further support is at the monthly July low of 1.2503 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2490 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.1661 and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003). If the market does not establish support here expect a drop to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2174 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.1661 and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003). The Euro faces a gauntlet of technical price resistance on the weekly chart at the August high of 1.2961, the July high of 1.2992, and this year's current weekly high of 1.3003. If the market can conquer this barrier it could surge to the 2004 all-time high of 1.3687. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.4000 mark. The Euro currency made an inside bar on the quarterly chart during the third quarter and had a range of about half of the size of the second quarter's range. A breakout of last quarter's range (high of 1.2961, low of 1.2503) could be an important signal regarding the next directional move in the Euro. Momentum traders may want to consider "bracketing" the market with a buy stop above last quarter's high and a sell stop below last quarter's low with the objective to enter the market with whichever order is elected first and use the other order as the initial protective stop on the position. Open Interest is flat at multi-month lows. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Euro should trade decline for most of October and then rally in the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since April. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are also reducing the size of their net long position.

The Japanese yen finds near term support at the weekly September low of .008454 followed closely by monthly trend line support at .008434 (as drawn between the 2002 low of .007415 and last year's low of .008252). This year's current weekly low is just a bit further at .008390. Further support is at last year's low of .008252. If last year's low is violated the market could plunge to the psychological .008000 level. Near term resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008745 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of .009217 and the weekly September low of .008454) followed closely by the daily September high of .008776. A break out above this price level could cause a rally to the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008926 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of .009217 and the weekly September low of .008454) in confluence with the daily August high of .008937. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009078 (as measured between the contract high of .009415 and the current contract low of .008533). Open Interest is high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily chart and nearing oversold levels on the weekly and monthly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to trade slightly higher for the first half October and then decline during the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a record-size net long position. Large traders are holding a record size net short position. Small traders are also bearish on the yen.

Metals - December gold slipped to a multi-week low. A break below last week's low of $563.50 (all-session daily chart) should allow the market to test important support at the weekly June low of $555.00 (all-sessions) or the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $548.80 (as measured between the monthly 1999 low of $252.50 on the all-session monthly chart and this year's current high of $732.00 on the all-session monthly chart). Failure to stabilize here could result in a fast decline to another major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $509.10 (as measured between the 2004 low of $371.30 on the all-session weekly chart and this year's current high of $732.00 on the all-session weekly chart). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $612.30 (as measured between the daily July high of $691.20 on the all-session chart and last week's low of $563.50 on the all-session chart) in confluence with the daily September 28th reaction high of $612.40 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily September high of $648.50 (all-sessions). If gold can exceed this high it could gain enough strength to make a run for the weekly July reaction high of $677.50 (all-sessions). In the first week of October gold broke a previous quarter's low. Any follow thru to the down side could indicate bigger problems ahead. Open Interest is at the highest level since May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is oversold on the weekly and daily charts. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways for the first half October and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since July of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders have remained neutral.

December silver finds near term support between last week's daily low of $10.65 (all-sessions) and the daily September low of $10.55 (all-sessions). Failure to establish support here could cause the market to drop even more and test the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $9.75 on the all-session monthly chart (silver has only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last three years) in confluence with the daily June low of $9.64 (all-sessions). If the decline does not end here silver could plunge to the 2004 high of $8.50 (old resistance) or the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.20 (as measured between the 2001 low of $4.015 and this year's current high of $14.97). Near term resistance is at the daily September 28th reaction high of $11.86 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the weekly September reaction high of $13.26 (all-sessions). If silver can clear last month's high it could rocket back up to this year's current high of $14.97 on the all-session weekly chart. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should decline in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in thirteen months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on silver.

December copper hit a two and a half month low on the daily chart last week. Near term support is found between last week's low of 318.50 (all-sessions) and the daily July low of 314.50 (all-sessions). If the market does not establish support right in here it could drop to the daily June low of 284.10 on the all-session chart followed closely by the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 280.15 (as measured between the 2001 low of 60.35 on the all-session monthly chart and this year's current all-time high of 416.00 on the all-session monthly chart). Further support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 250.50 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last three years). Near term resistance is at the daily September 27th reaction high of 354.00 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the weekly September high of 371.00 (all-sessions). A strong close above this number could allow copper to make a run for this year's current weekly high of 416.00 on the all-session chart. Although the copper market is still in backwardation with the December contract trading at a premium over the March contract, the spread between the two delivery months contracted to the lowest level yet. This is bearish price action. In the first week of October copper broke a previous quarter's low for the first time in four years. It's "do-or-die" for this market now. If copper does not recover immediately it could turn into a train wreck for the bulls. Open Interest is sitting flat at the lowest level since July of 2004. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in October. Commercials are holding the largest net long position in four years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest size net short position that they have had since May of 2003. Small traders are now net short in copper.

Energies - November crude oil is plunged to a multi-month low and tested a major Fibonacci .382 retracement and close below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average for the first time in three years. Near term support is at last week's daily low of $57.75 (all-sessions) in confluence with this year's current low on the weekly continuous chart at $57.55 (all-sessions). Further support is at the November 2005 reaction low of $55.40 (all-sessions) in confluence with a major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $54.83 (as measured between the 2001 low of $16.70 on the all-session weekly continuous chart and the current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session weekly continuous chart). Further support is at the psychological fifty dollar mark. Near term resistance is at last week's all-session high of $63.32 (November crude oil has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for eight consecutive weeks) the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-August). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average expect a run back up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $66.49 (as measured between the contract high of $80.64 and the current contract low of $57.75). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $70.51 (as measured between the all-time weekly high of $78.40 and the current contract low of $57.75) in confluence with the daily all-session low of $70.54 (old support). If the oil rally does not end here it's always possible that the market will challenge the current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is just below the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is oversold on the weekly and daily charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should trade in a choppy range for the first half of October and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are now net long for the first time since March. Large traders are still holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since April.

November Unleaded Gas finds near term support at last week's new multi-month low of 144.35 (all-sessions). Further support is at this year's current low of 136.75 on the all-session weekly chart. If gasoline makes a new low for the year expect it to really tank and hit the December 2004 low of 103.50. Near term resistance is at last week's all-session high of 156.90 (November gasoline has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since early August). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average look for a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 170.00 (as measured between the contract high of 211.50 on the all-session daily chart and last week's low of 144.35 on the all-session daily chart). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 185.85 (as measured between the contract high of 211.50 on the all-session daily chart and last week's low of 144.35 on the all-session daily chart). If the rally does not end here gasoline may drive on up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 200.46 (as measured between this year's current high on the weekly continuous chart at 235.15 and last week's low of 144.35 on the all-session daily chart). Open Interest is at the lowest level in nineteen years! The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is oversold on the weekly and daily charts. Seasonally, gasoline should move lower in October. Commercial interests are net long for the first time since January 2005. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since May of 2003. Small traders the least bullish since March.

November natural gas may have changed trend direction last week when it took out a previous week's high for the first time in six weeks and closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since the end of August. A rally above last week's high of 6.480 could keep this market headed for the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 7.145 (as measured between the daily August high of 10.173 on the all-session chart and the current all-session contract low of 5.274). If the rally does not end here the market could challenge the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.302 (as measured between the daily August high of 10.173 on the all-session chart and the current all-session contract low of 5.274) or even the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 8.531 (as measured between last year's all-time high on the weekly continuous chart at 15.780 and this year's current multi-year low of 4.050 on the all-session daily chart). Near term support is at the current contract low of 5.274 (all-sessions). Further support is at the psychological 5.000 mark. After that natural gas may visit this year's current multi-year low of 4.050 on the all-session weekly chart. Open Interest is at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is near oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways for most of October and then decline sharply during the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding a new record size net short position. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are the least bullish in about a year.

Meats - December live cattle finds near term resistance at last week's high of 91.10 (December live cattle has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 91.90 (as measured between the contract high of 93.97 and the daily September low of 88.55). If the market can clear this retracement it could challenge the contract high of 93.97. A break out to new contract highs could allow cattle to challenge this year's current weekly high of 97.05 in confluence with last year's weekly high of 97.12. Near term support is at the daily September low of 88.55. (December live cattle has made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for five consecutive months). If the market breaks last month's low expect a decline to technical support clustered between the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.65 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 73.45 and the weekly September high of 94.80), the daily July low of 86.30, and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 85.60 (as measured between the contract low of 80.42 and the contract high of 93.97). A break below this support zone it could allow the market to decline to the weekly July low of 81.95 followed closely by the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 81.60 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 73.45 and the weekly September high of 94.80). At the beginning of September, December live cattle was trading at a premium of 100 points above the February live cattle. As of the first week of October, December live cattle was trading 125 points under the February live cattle. Backwardation has disappeared. This is a bearish sign for cattle. Open Interest is sitting at a two month high. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally in the first half of October and then retreat in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a very small net long position in cattle. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since June. Small traders are holding their smallest net short position since May.

November feeders find near term support at last week's two and a half month low of 110.27. A break below it could cause enough follow thru selling to bring the market down to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.97 (as measured between the contract low of 99.40 and the contract high of 119.25). Further support is at the psychological 100 mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 112.10 (November feeders have made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for four consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above in nearly a month. A break out above a previous week's high and a close above the 18-day Moving Average could inspire a short-covering rally and take feeders up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.82 (as measured between the contract high of 119.25 and last week's low of 110.27). If the rally does not end here November feeders could challenge the contract high of 119.25. Feeders are still in backwardation with the November contract trading at a premium to the January contract. However, the spread between the two has been contracting and is now at the lowest level since April. This is bearish price action. Open Interest is at the lowest level since Memorial Day. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, feeders should rally sharply in the first half of October and then plunge in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since early June. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since May. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since January of 2005.

December lean hogs find near term resistance at last week's high of 61.80 (December hogs have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above in nearly a month. A break out above a previous week's high and a close above the 18-day Moving Average could send hogs right to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 63.20 (as measured between the contract high of 65.60 and the daily September low of 59.30). Further resistance is at the contract high of 65.60. A break out to new contract highs could send the hog market screaming up to the weekly August high of 72.10 on the weekly continuous chart. Near term support is at the daily September low of 59.30. (December hogs have made higher monthly lows for seven out of the last eight months and higher monthly highs for seven consecutive months). A break below last month's low could cause a sell off to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 56.75 (as measured between the contract low of 51.30 and the current contract high of 65.60). Further support is at the daily May low of 53.90. At the beginning of September, December hogs were trading at a premium of 50 points above the February hogs. As of the first week of October, December hogs were trading 200 points under the February contract. The market has slipped back into "contango" (carrying charge market) and could put further pressure on the hog prices. Open Interest is near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are oversold on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to move sideways for the first half of October and then collapse in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a small net long position in hogs. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a big net long position. Small traders are still holding their record size net short position.

Grains - November soybeans broke out above the September high. A rally above last week's high of $5.702 could allow the market to test a gap on the all-session daily chart between $5.906 and $5.932 in confluence with the June low of $5.91 on the all-session daily chart (old support). If the rally does not end here beans could be on their way to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.012 (as measured between the July high of $6.41 on the all-session daily chart and the current contract low of $5.366 on the all-session daily chart) or the August high of $6.08 (all-session chart). Near term support is at the current contract low of $5.366 (all-session chart). A break to new contract lows could crush the beans down to the major double bottom on the weekly chart between the 2004 low of $5.01 and the 2005 low of $4.984. Failure to establish support here could result in a collapse to the 2002 low of $4.154 (all-session chart). Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should decline into an important seasonal low at the end of October. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since April. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are holding a small net short position in beans.

December soy meal broke out to a two month high. A rally above last week's high of $171.30 could send the market to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $175.60 (as measured between the contract high of $203.20 on the all-session daily chart and the current contract low of $158.50 on the all-session daily chart). Bigger resistance is at the daily July high of $184.40 (all-sessions) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $186.10 (as measured between the contract high of $203.20 on the all-session daily chart and the current contract low of $158.50 on the all-session daily chart). Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $163.40 (as measured between the contract low of $158.50 on the all-session daily chart and last week's high of $171.30 on the all-session daily chart). Further support is at the contract low of $158.50 (all-session chart). A break to new contract lows could cause a slide to last year's weekly low of $148.10 (all-session chart) or the 2004 weekly low of $146.60 (all-session chart). Open Interest is at a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean meal is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, soy meal should rally in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since the beginning of the year.

December bean oil finds near term support between last week's multi-month low of 23.46 (all-sessions). If it continues it's descent the market could hit the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 22.20 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 18.82 and this year's current weekly high of 27.66). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 21 cents followed by the weekly December 2005 low of 20.62. Near term resistance is at last week's all-session high of 24.58 (December bean oil has only broken a previous week's high once in the last the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last two months). If the market can close above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average look for a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 25.46 (as measured between the contract high of 28.70 and last week's low of 23.46). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 26.70 (as measured between the contract high of 28.70 and last week's low of 23.46). Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is oversold on the daily chart. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to decline for most of October and then rally sharply during the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since February. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are net short for the first time since April.

December corn broke out to the highest level since June 2004 on the weekly chart. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.762 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.782 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of $3.352 and last year's weekly low of $1.856). Further resistance is at the psychological three dollar mark. If the market fails to stop here it could pop up to the weekly 2004 high of $3.352 . Near term support is at last week's low of $2.614 (December corn has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks), the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.60 (as measured between the contract low of $2.334 and last week's high of $2.762), and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.50 (as measured between the contract low of $2.334 and last week's high of $2.762). Further support is at the contract low of $2.334. Open Interest is sitting flat near the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should rally for the first half of October and then move lower in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in two months. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since early August. Small traders are holding a sizable net short position.

November rice finds near term resistance at the September high of 9.890. Further resistance is at the contract high of 10.160. A break out to new contract highs could send rice to the 2004 weekly high of 11.320. Near term support at last week's all-session low of 9.630 (November rice has made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below in nearly a month. If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.440 (as measured between the August low of 8.720 and the September high of 9.890). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.165 (as measured between the August low of 8.720 and the September high of 9.890). If rice does not stabilize here it could hit the August low of 8.720. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, rice should move sideways in October. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since the end of last year. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since May.

December oats find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $2.15. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of $2.324. If December oats can take out this high look for a run to the 2002 high of $2.48. Near term support is at last week's low of $2.044 (December oats have made higher weekly lows for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since the end of August). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.944 (as measured between the August low of $1.82 and last week's new contract high of $2.15). Further support is at the August low of $1.82. Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are overbought on the daily chart. Oats have a seasonal tendency to get stuck in a choppy range in October. Commercials are holding a moderate size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position in thirteen months.

December wheat exploded to the highest price in over ten years! A break out above last week's high of $4.87 (all-session chart) could keep the market moving toward the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $5.484 (as measured between the 1996 all-time high of $7.50 and the 1999 multi-decade low of $2.224). Further resistance is at the psychological six dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $4.352 (December wheat has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average it has closed above every day since mid-September. If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.186 (as measured between the August low of $3.766 and last week's high of $4.87). Further support is at the August low of $3.766. Open Interest is at the highest level since early June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is near overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways in October. Commercial interests are holding a very large net long position. Large traders are holding a sizable net short position. Small traders are still holding a near-record size net short position in wheat.

Softs - December coffee finds near term support at the September low of 101.00. Further support is at the contract low of 98 cents. If December coffee makes a new low expect it to hit this year's current low on the weekly continuous chart at 93.50. Further support is at the weekly December low of 90.75. Near term resistance is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109.05 (as measured between the daily August high of 114.00 and the September low of 101.00). A rally above it could allow the market to test the August high of 114.00. Further resistance is at the May high of 119.70 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.25 (as measured between the daily January high of 134.00 and the current contract low at 98 cents). If the rally does not end here coffee may visit this year's current high on the weekly continuous chart at 125.90. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is near oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should move sideways to lower for the first half of October and then rally for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short coffee position in two months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since then. Small traders are still neutral on the coffee market.

December cocoa finds near term support at the contract low of $1,415. Further support is at the August low of $1,380 on the weekly continuous chart. If the market continues to decline it may test last year's low of $1,315 on the weekly continuous chart or even the 2004 low of $1,299 on the weekly continuous chart. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $1,491 (December cocoa has made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for six out of the last eight weeks). Further resistance is located between the daily September high of $1,535 and the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,549 (as measured between the contract high of $1,767 and the current contract low of $1,415). If December cocoa makes it past this price level it could hit the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,633 (as measured between the contract high of $1,767 and the current contract low of $1,415). Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is near oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to decline in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since April. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are the least bullish since June.

March sugar finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 10.66. Further support is at the weekly September low of 9.70. If this low is broken sugar could easily touch the psychological nine cent mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 11.79 (March sugar has made lower weekly highs for twelve out of the last thirteen weeks). Further resistance is at the September high of 13.40 (March sugar has only broken a previous month's high once in the last five months). If the market takes out last month's high it could rally to a major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 14.92 (as measured between the July major reaction high of 17.55 and the contract low of 10.66). Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should rally sharply in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are net short for the first time since May of 2005.

November orange juice finds near term support at last week's two and a half month low of 164.50. Further technical support is at a weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 159.65 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 114.50 and this year's weekly high of 187.60). If the decline does not end here OJ could drop to a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 142.40 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 114.50 and this year's weekly high of 187.60). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 173.40 (November OJ has made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks), the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 172.75 (as measured between the contract high of 188.05 and last week's low of 164.50), and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average look for orange juice to rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 178.60 (as measured between the contract high of 188.05 and last week's low of 164.50). Further resistance is at the contract high of 188.05. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, OJ should move sideways for the first half of October and then rally for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the a huge net short position. Large traders are holding a rather large net long position. Small traders are the least bullish since January.

December cotton finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 49.00. Further support is at this year's weekly low of 45 cents. If cotton makes a new low on the weekly chart it could drop to the 2004 low of 42 cents. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 50.50 (December cotton has made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks and lower weekly lows for eight consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-August). If the market can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes strong above the 18-day Moving Average the market could easily stage a rally to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 52.34 (as measured between the August high of 57.75 and the current contract low of 49.00). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 54.41 (as measured between the August high of 57.75 and the current contract low of 49.00). If the rally does not end here December cotton might pay a visit to the August high of 57.75. Open Interest is at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is oversold on the daily chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways to lower in October. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since early July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2006 Pearce Financial, LLC
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