Stock Indices - The March S&P 500 finds near term technical resistance at the current contract high of 1423.00. If the market continues to break out to new all-time highs there's nothing to stop it from reaching the psychological 1500 mark. Momentum has stayed exceptionally strong as the cash S&P 500 has made higher monthly lows for five consecutive months and higher monthly highs for four consecutive months. Near term support is at the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last four months), last week's low of 1392.00 on the all-session chart (the March S&P 500 has made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks), and the weekly 9-bar Moving Average (the S&P 500 has closed above the weekly 9-bar Moving Average every single week since mid-July). If this support area is broken the market could easily test last month's low of 1365.60. If the S&P 500 breaks a previous month's low for the first time since June it could lead to a decline to the weekly January high of 1331.20 (old resistance). Further support is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1292.30 (as measured between this year's low of 1219.00 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of 1411.00 on the weekly continuous chart) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1292.50 (the S&P 500 has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since May of 2003). If the S&P 500 does decline near this level, traders should look for a buy set-up if the market holds support or rebounds from this price level. Open Interest is at a two and a half month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the S&P 500 is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, the S&P 500 should move sideways in the first half of December and rally during the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since July. Large traders (hedge funds) are now holding the smallest net long position since late August. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in four months.

The March NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at the current contract high of 1846.50. Further resistance is at the psychological 2000 mark. After that the market could challenge the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2081.50. Momentum is strong as the NASDAQ 100 has made higher monthly lows for four consecutive months and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months. Near term support is at the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last four months), last week's low of 1788.00 on the all-session chart (the NASDAQ 100 has made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks), and the weekly 9-bar Moving Average (the NASDAQ 100 has closed above the weekly 9-bar Moving Average every single week since mid-August). If this support area is broken the market could easily test last month's low of 1701.00. If the NASDAQ 100 breaks a previous month's low for the first time since July it could lead to a decline to the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1600.10 (as measured between this year's low of 1458.00 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of 1830.00 on the weekly continuous chart). Open Interest is at a two and a half month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The NASDAQ 100 should trade in a choppy range in December. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in nearly two years! Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net long position since mid-January. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since December 2004.

Interest rates - March T-bonds broke resistance at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement last week. Further resistance is at this year's current high of 115-13. If the market breaks out to a new high for the year it could be on it's way to the 2005 high of 119-30. Near term support is at last week's low of 112-26 (March T-bonds have made equal or higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average. (T-bonds have closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test support at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (T-bonds have closed above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average every single week since mid-July) or the November low of 111-13. (T-bonds have made equal or higher monthly lows for six consecutive months). If this support area is breached the market could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108-31 (as measured between this year's weekly double bottom low of 105-11 and last week's new multi-month high of 114-29). The March NOB spread is testing important price resistance between the February high of 5-01 premium T-bonds and last year's weekly high of 5-03 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at last year's all-time closing high of 5-14 on the monthly continuous chart. A break out to new highs could allow the spread to immediately add another full point. Near term support is at the November low of 4-01 premium T-bonds (the March NOB spread has made higher monthly lows for six consecutive months). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 3-16 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily contract low of 24/32nds premium T-bonds and the current spread high of 5-06 premium T-bonds) followed by the daily October low of 3-08 premium T-bonds. If the spread does not rebound from this level it could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-145 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily contract low of 24/32nds premium T-bonds and the current spread high of 5-06 premium T-bonds) followed by the daily August low of 2-09 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at the highest level since August of 1998. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bonds are overbought on the daily and weekly charts. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to rally in December. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in over ten months. Large traders are still holding the smallest of net short position since mid-July. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since February of 2003.

March T-Notes find near term resistance at last week's eleven month high of 109-21. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 110-065 followed closely by the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 114-16 and this year's current weekly low of 104-01) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-175 (as measured between the 2003 weekly high of 121-03 and this year's current weekly low of 104-01). If T-notes make it thru this barrier of price resistance it could indicate that the market is headed to last year's high of 114-16. Near term support is at last week's low of 108-09 (March T-notes have made equal or higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average. (T-notes have closed above the 18-day Moving Average all but one day over the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test support at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (T-notes have closed above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average every single week since mid-July) or the November low of 107-10 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107-14 (as measured between this year's weekly low of 104-01 and last week's new multi-month high of 109-18). If support is not established here the market could decline to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106-045 (as measured between this year's weekly low of 104-01 and last week's new multi-month high of 109-18). Open Interest is at a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that notes are overbought on the daily and weekly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move higher in December. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-August. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are still holding a moderate size net short position.

International Bonds - March Canadian 10-year Bonds exploded to a fourteen month high. Near term resistance is at last week's new contract high of 115.84. Further resistance is at last week's high of 116.20 on the weekly chart. Until the market reverses course, assume it's headed up to challenge last year's all-time high of 117.78. Near term support is at last week's low of 114.68 (March CGB's have made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks and higher weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average. (March CGB's have closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test support at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (CGB's have closed above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average every single week since early July) or the November low of 113.85. (CGB's have made equal or higher monthly lows for four out of the last five months). If this support area is breached the market could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.17 (as measured between this year's weekly double bottom low of 109.68 and last week's new multi-month high of 116.20).   March Euro Bunds find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 119.06. A breakout to new contract highs again could launch bunds on a run to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.76 (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current contract low of 114.55). Near term support is at last week's low of 118.23 (March bunds have made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks and higher weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks ) and the 18-day Moving Average. (March bunds have closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test support at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (bunds have closed above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average every single week since early July) or the November low of 117.30. (Bunds have made equal or higher monthly lows for three out of the last four months). If this support area is breached the market could decline to weekly October reaction low of 116.43 or even the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.20 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 114.55 and the weekly September high of 118.88).  March London Long Gilts have been going sideways for several weeks. Near term resistance is located between the weekly September high of 110.76 and the weekly June high of 110.84. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.28 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 108.31). If gilts do not slow down here they could rally to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.11 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 108.31). Near term support is at last week's low of 109.51 (March long gilts have made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks). Further support is found between the weekly October low of 108.45 and this year's current weekly low of 108.31. A clean break to new contract lows could hammer the gilt market down to the 2004 low of 104.86.  March Australian 10-year Bonds find near term support at last week's low of 94.425. (March Aussie bonds have made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks). Further support is at the weekly October low of 94.17. If this low is taken out expect the market to touch this year's current weekly low of 94.045. A break to new lows should send Aussie bonds right down to the 2004 low of 93.88. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 94.48. Further resistance is at the weekly September high of 94.565. If this high is exceeded look for Aussie bonds to test the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.655 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 94.045).  March JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term resistance at last week's daily high of 134.97. Further resistance is found between last week's multi-month high of 135.60 on the weekly chart and the September high of 135.38 on the weekly chart. If JGBs do not reverse here expect the market to test the monthly 18-bar Moving Average (that it has not closed above since August '05), last year's weekly low of 135.90 (old support), or the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 136.18 (as measured between the 2003 weekly all-time high of 145.04 and this year's current weekly low of 130.71). If the rally does not end here JGBs may surge another point to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.29 (as measured between last year's double top weekly high of 141.35 and this year's current weekly low of 130.71). Near term support is at last week's low of 133.88 (JGBs have made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks ) and the 18-day Moving Average. (JGBs have closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average look for it to test support at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (JGBs have closed above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average every single week since early August). A close below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average could indicate a trend change and send JGBs right down to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.58 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 130.71 and the weekly September high of 135.60).

Currencies - The US Dollar Index plunged to a new low for the year. After trading above the previous quarter's high by a mere three ticks, the greenback plunged and broke below the previous quarter's low by a wide margin. This is a bad sign for the dollar bulls. Technical support may not be found until somewhere between the 2204 low of 80.48 and the 1995 low of 80.14. Further support is at the 1992 low of 78.43. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 83.37 (the March US dollar index has made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks and lower weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late October). If the greenback can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could be signaling a change in trend. If this occurs look for a rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 83.83 ( as measured between the daily October high of 86.78 and last week's new contract low of 82.00). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.95 ( as measured between the daily October high of 86.78 and last week's new contract low of 82.00). If the rally carries beyond this level the US dollar index may trade back up to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.20 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 82.28). We are currently about a month out from the annual "Buck Hunt" where the US dollar index will establish the trading parameters we use to call the high/low of the entire year with impressive historical accuracy. Don't miss the January Market Watch or the special report on the annual "Buck Hunt". Open Interest is at the highest level since May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the US dollar is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should decline sharply in December. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since June. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since June.

The Canadian Dollar traded below a previous quarter's low for the first time since the second quarter of 2005. Any follow thru to the downside could indicate that a major trend change has occurred. Near term support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near .8745 (the Canadian dollar has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since 2002) in confluence with the November low of .8734. A break below this area could take two cents off the "looney" and send it down to the monthly 2004 high of .8530 (old resistance) in confluence with the monthly April low of .8513. Further support is at the weekly November 2005 reaction low of .8357 in confluence with a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8350 (as measured between last year's weekly low of .7855 and this year's all-time high of .9152). Near term resistance is at last week's high of .8885. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8967 (as measured between the daily August high of .9111 and the daily November low of .8734). If the "looney" can clear this retracement it opens the possibility of a challenge of this year's all-time high of .9152 on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should trade slightly lower in the first half of December and then move higher in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position on record. Large traders covered a small amount of their record net short position. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since June.

The Australian Dollar surged to a new multi-month high. If the market can clear last week's high of .7904 it could quickly add another penny and test last year's high of .7992. Further resistance is at the 1996 high of .8210. Near term support is at last week's low of .7741. (The March Australian dollar has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last eight weeks). A break below a previous week's low could allow the market to decline to the daily all-session November low of .7591 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7589 (as measured between the daily October low of .7394 and the current contract high of .7904). If the Aussie dollar does not stabilize here it could hit the daily October low of .7394 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Australian dollar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to drop in the first week of December and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding a record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding a huge net long position.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar plunged to a new fifteen month low and hit the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement. Near term support is located between last week's low of .0861 (about eight and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar, the weekly 2003 high of .0833 (about eight and one third of a cent), and the weekly 2004 high of .0812 (about eight cents). If the spread does not stabilize near eight cents it could hit the psychological six cent area. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0454 (about four and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Near term resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .1147 (about eleven and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1325 (about thirteen and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British Pound reached a new fourteen year high. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.9853. Further resistance is at the 1992 high of 2.0088. A strong breakout above it could allow cable to run back up to a major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 2.1459 (as measured between the 1980 all-time high of 2.4485 and the 1985 all-time low of 1.0345). Near term support is at last week's low of 1.9335. (The March British pound has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last seven weeks). A break below a previous week's low could allow the market to decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.9045 (as measured between the daily October low of 1.8545 and the current contract high of 1.9853) and the monthly 9-bar Moving Average near 1.8928. (The British pound has closed above the monthly 9-bar Moving Average every single month since March). Further support is at the daily October low of 1.8545 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The pound has a seasonal tendency to rally sharply in December. Commercials are holding a record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding a big net long position.

The March Swiss Franc finds near term resistance at last week's high of .8484. Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .8604 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of .8892 and the 2005 weekly low of .7548). If the rally does not end here the market could be headed to the weekly 2005 high of .8826 or the weekly 2004 high of .8892. Near term support is at last week's low of .8340 (the March Swiss franc has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks and higher weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the Swissie breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8153 (as measured between the daily October low of .7949 and the current contract high of .8484). Further support is at the daily October low of .7949 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a two month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swissie is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves higher in December. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since July. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position in three months. Small traders are holding their largest net long position since the end of May.

The Euro Currency surged to the highest level in over a year and a half. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.3413. Further resistance is not found until the 2004 all-time high of 1.3687. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.8340 (the March Euro has made higher weekly lows for seven straight weeks and higher weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the Euro currency breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average the market could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2898 (as measured between the daily October low of 1.2579 and the current contract high of 1.3413). Further support is at the monthly November low of 1.2710 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2710 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1.1661 and this year's current weekly high of 1.3359). Open Interest is at the highest level since June of 2005. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Euro should rally sharply in December. Commercial interests are holding a huge net short position. Large traders are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding a sizable net long position.

The March Euro currency/Swiss franc spread broke out to a new high of .4934 (about forty-nine and a third of a cent) premium Euro. Psychological resistance may be found at the fifty-cent mark. After that, the sky's the limit as this spread is already in uncharted territory. The weekly 18-bar Moving Average provides good support for this spread. Over the years, traders have been well rewarded when using buy and sell signals generated by the spread closing above or below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average. The crossover of this Moving Average often tends to give clues as to what the trend will be for months on end. Therefore, a close below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average should be taken seriously as a sell signal. If this occurs the March Euro currency/Swiss franc spread could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .4754 (about forty-seven and a half cents) premium Euro. Further support is clustered around the October daily closing low of .4632, the September daily closing low of .4624, the August daily closing low of .4640, the July daily closing high of .4627, and the June daily closing high of .4624. A weak close below this level could really smash the Euro/Swiss spread.

The Japanese Yen finds near term resistance at last week's high of .008821. A strong close above it could take the market right up to the weekly July reaction high of .008901 in confluence with the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008910 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of .009217 and the weekly October low of .008414). If the rally does not end here the market may run all the way to the weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .009045 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of .009217 and the weekly October low of .008414). Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008634 (as measured between the daily October low of .008518 and the daily November high of .008821). Further support is at the daily October low of .008518 (all-sessions). After that the yen will quickly encounter technical price support at the monthly November low of .008472 in confluence with monthly trend line support at .008470 (as drawn between the 2002 low of .007415 and last year's low of .008252). If the market does not stabilize here it could hit the 2005 low of .008252. Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is overbought on the daily chart. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move just slightly higher in December. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since July. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral on the yen.

Metals - February Gold finds near term resistance at last week's nearly four month high of $655.50 (all-sessions). If the market continues to run it could challenge the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $683.60 (as measured between the contract high of $755.00 and the contract low of $568.00) or even the daily July reaction high of $690.00 (all-sessions). If the rally does not end here February gold may challenge this year's high on the weekly continuous chart at $732.00 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $639.00 (February gold has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last eight weeks and higher weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If gold breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $622.10 (as measured between the daily October low of $568.00 and last week's high of $655.50) in confluence with the daily November low of $621.00 (all-sessions). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $601.40 (as measured between the daily October low of $568.00 and last week's high of $655.50). Failure to stabilize here could result in a fast decline to the daily October low of $568.00 (all-sessions) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month since August of 2001). Open Interest is at the highest level since May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that gold should rally in the first week of December and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since September. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since the end of July.

March Silver finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of $14.25 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the weekly May high of $14.97 (all-sessions). A strong close above fifteen bucks could send silver soaring to the psychological twenty dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $13.55 (September silver has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last eight weeks and higher weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-October). If silver breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $12.91 (as measured between the daily September low of $10.74 and last week's high of $14.25). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $12.08 (as measured between the daily September low of $10.74 and last week's high of $14.25). Failure to stabilize here could result in a drop to the daily double bottom between the daily September low of $10.74 and the daily October low of $10.79. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is overbought on the daily and monthly charts. Seasonally, silver should move higher thru most of December with a slight dip in the middle of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since late April. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on silver.

March Copper finds near term resistance at the November 27th reaction high of 327.50. Further resistance is at the daily November high of 341.00 (all-sessions). If March copper can clear last month's high it could challenge the contract high of 361.20. Near term support is at the daily November low of 301.30 (all-sessions). A break below last month's low could cause a decline to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 280.15 (as measured between the 2001 low of 60.35 on the all-session monthly chart and this year's current all-time high of 416.00 on the all-session monthly chart). Further support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 269.00 (copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average once in the last three years). Backwardation has been eliminated from the copper market as the March copper contract is now trading below the price of the May contract. This is a bearish development. Open Interest is still sitting flat at the lowest level since July of 2004. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move slightly lower in the first half of December and slightly higher for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding a record size net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their large net short copper position in over four years. Small traders are holding the large net short position since April of 1989!

Energies - January Crude Oil finds near term support at the contract low of $57.80 (all-sessions). Further support is at the weekly October low of $54.86 (all-sessions) in confluence with a major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $54.83 (as measured between the 2001 low of $16.70 on the all-session weekly continuous chart and the current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session weekly continuous chart). After that crude oil could hit the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $52.40 (as measured between the 1998 low of $10.35 on the all-session monthly continuous chart and the current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session monthly continuous chart) or even the psychological fifty dollar mark. Near term resistance is at the daily November all-session high of $63.77 (January crude oil has made lower monthly highs and lower monthly lows for four consecutive months), the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $63.85 (as measured between the all-time weekly high of $78.40 and the weekly October low of $54.86), and the weekly 18-bar Moving Average. If the market makes a strong breakout above this resistance barrier expect a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $66.72 (as measured between the current contract high of $81.14 and the contract low of $57.80). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $69.41 (as measured between the all-time weekly high of $78.40 and the weekly October low of $54.86). Open Interest is near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should decline in the first half of December then move sideways for the second half of the month. Commercial interests are neutral on crude oil. Large traders are holding a small net long position. Small traders are neutral.

January Unleaded Gas finds near term support at a daily double bottom between the November 2nd low of 168.70 (all-sessions) and the November 17th low of 168.86 (all-sessions) the contract low of $57.80 (all-sessions). A break to new lows would likely send the market down to this year's current low on the weekly chart at 157.00 in confluence with a major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 155.41 (as measured between the monthly 2001 low of 49.30 and the 2005 all-time high of 221.00). Near term resistance is at the daily November high of 187.25. Further resistance is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 194.08 (as measured between the 2006 weekly high of 217.00 and this year's current low on the weekly chart at 157.00). After that heating oil may test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 209.49 (as measured between the contract high of 234.71 on the all-session daily chart and the contract low of 168.70 on the all-session daily chart). Open Interest is near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that heating oil is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, heating oil should move sideways in December. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position in months. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position in a year. Small traders are neutral on heating oil.

January Natural Gas finds near term resistance at the November high of 9.050 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at a major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.302 (as measured between the daily August high of 12.068 on the all-session daily chart and the contract low of 7.444 on the all-session daily chart). If the rally does not end here natural gas should tag the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 11.299 (as measured between last year's all-time high on the weekly continuous chart at 15.780 and this year's current multi-year low of 4.050 on the weekly continuous chart). Near term support is at last week's low of 8.171 (January natural gas has made higher weekly lows for eight out of the last nine weeks). Further support is at the contract low of 7.444 (all-sessions). If January natural gas breaks to a new contract low it could quickly drop to the psychological 6.000 mark in confluence with the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 5.960. Open Interest is sitting flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is near overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to rally sharply thru most of December and collapse during the last week of the year. Commercial interests are still holding a record size net short position. Large traders are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position since February of 2003.

Meats - February Live Cattle finds near term resistance at the November 22nd reaction high of 91.10. Further resistance is at the October high of 92.85 in confluence with the contract high of 93.05. A break out to new contract highs could send February cattle up to the weekly September high of 94.80. After that cattle may not find resistance again until the weekly 2005 high of 97.12. Near term support is at the November low of 87.77. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 86.57 (as measured between the contract low of 82.60 and the contract high of 93.05). A break below this support level could allow the market to decline to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 81.60 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 73.45 and the weekly September high of 94.80). Open Interest hit a two month high. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should decline in the first half of December and rally during the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since mid-June. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are still holding a sizable net short position.

January Feeders finds near term support at a daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 95.25. Further support is clustered between the monthly 2001 high of 92.75 (old resistance), the contract low of 92.55, and the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 91.62 (as measured between the 1996 all-time low of 46.15 and last year's all-time high of 119.75). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the psychological 80 area. Near term resistance is at a huge gap on the daily chart between 99.42 and 100.90 followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 101.32 (as measured between the contract high of 115.50 and the contract low of 92.55). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.75 (as measured between the contract high of 115.50 and the contract low of 92.55). Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are oversold on the weekly chart. Seasonally, feeders should move slightly lower in December. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position on record. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position in nearly three years. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since early September.

February Lean Hogs find near term support at the daily November low of 63.95 and a daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 63.65 (as measured between the daily September low of 60.50 and the contract high of 68.75). Further support is at the daily October low of 60.60 in confluence with the daily September low of 60.50. A break below these lows could send hogs down to the weekly October low of 58.35. If this low is broken the market does not find any old lows to support itself until the weekly April low of 53.55. Near term resistance is at the November 24th reaction high of 67.00. Further resistance is at the contract high of 68.75. A break out to new contract highs could send February hogs to the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 70.05 (as measured between this year's current high of 77.25 on the weekly continuous chart and the October low of 58.35 on the weekly continuous chart). Further resistance is at the weekly August high of 72.10 on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is sitting flat near the all-time high. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to drop sharply for the first half of December and then move sideways in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a very large net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) sold off some of their huge net long position but they are still very bullish on hogs. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since February.

Grains - January Soybeans find near term resistance at the contract high of $6.956 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at last year's high of $7.574 on the weekly continuous chart. After that beans may challenge the psychological eight dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $6.754 (January beans have only broken a previous week's low once in the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late September). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average beans could decline to the daily November low of $6.414 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $6.40 (as measured between the contract low of $5.50 and the current contract high of $6.956). Failure to establish support in this area could result in a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.054 (as measured between the contract low of $5.50 and the current contract high of $6.956). Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are near overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move lower in December. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since September 2005. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since June 2005. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since July.

December Soy Meal should be headed lower. The 9-day Moving Average has already closed below the 18-day Moving Average in late November so a trend change has already been signaled. Near term support is located between the November low of $188.50 and the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $186.90 (as measured between the contract low of $159.70 and the contract high of $203.70). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $170.60 (as measured between the contract low of $158.50 and the October high of $190.30). Failure to establish support in this area could result in a drop to the contract low of $159.70 (all-sessions). A break to new contract lows could cause a slide to last year's weekly low of $148.10 (all-session chart) or the 2004 weekly low of $146.60 (all-session chart). Near term resistance is found at the November 27th reaction high of $200.00. Further resistance is at the contract high of $203.70. If meal breaks out to a new high it will immediately encounter more resistance between the weekly December 2005 high of $205.40 and a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $206.60 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of $238.00 and this year's current weekly low of $155.80 on the all-session chart). If this barrier is taken out meal could be headed to the 2005 high of $238.00 on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is flat. Seasonally, soy meal should move sideways in December. Commercials are holding the largest net short position since June 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since May of 2004.

January Bean Oil finds near term support at last week's low of 28.86 (January bean oil has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for eight weeks straight) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-October). If bean oil breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 27.56 (as measured between the daily October low of 23.89 and the current high of 29.83). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 26.16 (as measured between the daily October low of 23.89 and the current high of 29.83) in confluence with a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 26.04 (as measured between the weekly December 2005 low of 20.62 and the weekly November high of 29.39). If the decline does not end here bean oil could test the daily October low of 23.89 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is at the current contract high of 29.83 (all-sessions) followed by a gap on the weekly chart between 29.95 and 30.50. If the gap is filled, bean oil may run to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 31.68 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 35.18 and the weekly 2005 low of 18.82). Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-July. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in December. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in four months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since August. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since July 2005.

March Corn finds near term resistance at the contract high of $3.934. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.092 (as measured between the 1996 high of $5.544 and the 2000 low of $1.74). If the market can make it past this level it may be destined to challenge the psychological five dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $3.77 (March corn has made higher weekly lows for fourteen out of the last fifteen weeks and higher weekly highs for ten out of the last eleven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-September). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.376 (as measured between the contract low of $2.48 and the contract high of $3.934) or the daily November low of $3.344 (March corn has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for three consecutive months). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.034 (as measured between the contract low of $2.48 and the contract high of $3.934). Open Interest is sitting flat near the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should decline in the first half of December and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position on record. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position in history. Small traders are holding a sizable net short position.

January Rice finds near term resistance between the November high of 10.310 (all-sessions) and the August high of 10.350 (all-sessions). A break out to new contract highs could send rice to the 2004 weekly high of 11.320. Near term support is at the daily October low of 9.500 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.505 (as measured between the August low of 9.010 and the November high of 10.310). Further support is at the August low of 9.010 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is overbought on the weekly chart. Seasonally, rice should move sideways in December. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a modest size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in four months.

March Oats find near term resistance at the November 20th reaction high of $2.82. Further resistance is at the contract high of $2.896. After that March oats should challenge the weekly 1996 high of $2.96. If March oats can take out this high it could surge to the 1988 drought high of $3.93. Near term support is at the daily November low of $2.444 (March oats have made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for seven out of the last eight months) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.424 (as measured between the contract low of $1.66 and the contract high of $2.896). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.132 (as measured between the contract low of $1.66 and the contract high of $2.896). Open Interest is at the lowest level since early October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are still near overbought territory on the weekly and monthly charts. Oats have a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in December. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since the beginning of September. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in seven months. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since the beginning of July.

March Wheat finds near term resistance at the November 8th reaction high of $5.374. Further resistance is at the contract high of $5.600. If March wheat breaks out to a new contract high look for it to quickly hit the psychological six dollar mark. If the rally does not end here wheat could even surge to the seven dollar area. Near term support is at the daily November low of $4.85 (March wheat has only broken a previous month's low one time in the last eleven months). A break below last month's low could pressure the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.58 (as measured between the August low of $3.95 and the contract high of $5.60). If wheat does not stabilize here it could plummet to the psychological four dollar mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since May. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways in December. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since March of 2005. Large traders are holding the largest net long position in six months. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since March.

Softs - March Coffee finds near term resistance at last week's high of 127.90. Further resistance is at the 2005 high of 137.00 on the weekly continuous chart. If coffee clears the 2005 high it could hit the 1999 high of 145.00 very quickly. Near term support is at last week's low of 120.20 (March coffee has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 117.95 (as measured between the contract low of 101.85 and last week's high of 127.90). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111.80 (as measured between the contract low of 101.85 and last week's high of 127.90). Open Interest is at a three month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, coffee should move higher in December. Commercials are holding the biggest net short coffee position since February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are still neutral on the coffee market.

March Cocoa finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of $1,580. Further resistance is located between the daily August high of $1,647 and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,655 (as measured between the contract high of $1,792 and the current contract low of $1,433). If March cocoa makes it past this price level it could surge to the weekly July high of $1,732. Near term support is at the daily November low of $1,477. Further support is at the contract low of $1,433. If March cocoa hits a new contract low it could hit the August low of $1,380 on the weekly continuous chart. If the market continues to decline it may test the 2005 low of $1,315 on the weekly continuous chart or even the 2004 low of $1,299 on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is starting to recover from a multi-month low. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to rally during the first week of December and then move sideways in a choppy range for the remainder of the month. Commercials are holding a moderate size net short position. Large traders are holding a small net long position. Small traders are neutral on cocoa at the moment.

March Sugar finds near term resistance between the November high of 12.57 and the October high of 12.65 (March sugar has made lower monthly lows for six consecutive months and lower monthly highs for five out of the last six months). Further resistance is at the daily September high of 13.40 followed by the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 13.67 (as measured between the contract high of 18.54 and the contract low of 10.66). If the market does not stop here it could rally to the daily August high of 15.43 followed closely by the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 15.53 (as measured between the contract high of 18.54 and the contract low of 10.66). Near term support is at the daily November low of 11.24. Further support is at the contract low of 10.66. A break to new contract lows could send March sugar spiraling down to match the weekly September low of 9.70. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should decline sharply in the first half of December and then rebound sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are still holding the smallest net short position since June of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) have continued to hold the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

January Orange Juice finds near term resistance between the contract high of 205.35 and the 1990 high of 206.50. A breakout past this barrier could launch the market to the psychological 2.25 mark in a short amount of time. Near term support is at the daily November low of 192.60 (January OJ has only broken a previous month's low once in the last ten months). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 188.80 (as measured between the daily October correction low of 162.00 and the current contract high of 205.35). Failure to stabilize here could send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 178.55 (as measured between the daily October correction low of 162.00 and the current contract high of 205.35). If the decline does not end here January OJ could try to fill the huge chart gap on the daily chart between 175.00 and 165.50. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should move lower in December. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since April. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since July. Small traders are neutral to bullish on OJ.

March Cotton finds near term resistance between the November high of 54.50 and the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 54.95 (as measured between the daily June high of 61.65 and the contract low of 50.81). Further resistance is clustered between the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 57.51 (as measured between the daily June high of 61.65 and the contract low of 50.81), the weekly February high of 57.65, and a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 58.35 (as measured between the weekly 2003 high of 84.80 and the weekly 2004 double bottom low of 42 cents). If the market continues it's ascent it could challenge the weekly 2005 high of 60.50. Near term support is at the contract low of 50.81. Further support is at the weekly November low of 46.50. If last month's low is broken cotton may hit the weekly July low of 45 cents. If cotton makes a new low on the weekly chart it could drop to the 2004 low of 42 cents. Open Interest recently plunged to the lowest level since early May. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to trade in a sideways choppy range in the first half of December and then rally sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a large net long position in cotton. Large traders (hedge funds) covered just a fraction of their huge net short position. Small traders remain neutral.