The March NASDAQ 100 finds near term support at last week's low of 1774.00 in confluence with the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below since August. This is closely followed by the January low of 1747.50 (the NASDAQ 100 has made higher monthly lows for five out of the last six months). If this support area fails look for a decline to the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1614.60 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 1458.00 on the weekly continuous chart and the weekly January high of 1868.00). Major support is at last year's low of 1458.00. Near term resistance is at the weekly January high of 1868.00. Further resistance is at the psychological 2000 mark. After that the market could challenge the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2081.50. Open Interest is flat. The NASDAQ 100 should chop lower in February. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in eleven months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since early December. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in four months.

Interest rates - March T-bonds find near term support between the January low of 109-06 and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-00 (as measured between last year's weekly double bottom low of 105-11 and the weekly December high of 114-29). Failure to recover at this level could pull the rug out from under the bond market and send it all the way down to last year's weekly double bottom low of 105-11. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 110-27 (March T-bonds have only broken a previous week's high once in the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average, look for a bounce to the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111-12 (as measured between the weekly December high of 114-29 and the weekly January low of 109-06). Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112-23 (as measured between the weekly December high of 114-29 and the weekly January low of 109-06). The March NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term support at last week's five month low of 3-01 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-14 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily contract low of 24/32nds premium T-bonds and the current spread high of 5-06 premium T-bonds). If the spread does not stabilize in this area it is quite possible that the spread will decline to last year's low of 27/32nds premium T-bonds. Near term resistance is at the daily January high of 4-11 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 4-12. A strong close above it could send the spread back up to the daily spread high of 5-06 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the 2005 all-time closing high of 5-14 on the monthly continuous chart. Open Interest is at the highest level in two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are oversold on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to decline in February. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since mid-July. Large traders are holding a moderate size net short position. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since mid-July.

March T-Notes find near term support between the January low of 106-06.5 and the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106-04.5 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 104-01 and the weekly December high of 109-18). If this support does not hold, the T-notes could plunge to last year's weekly low of 104-01. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 107-04.5 (March T-notes have made equal or lower weekly highs for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for it to challenge the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107-15.5 (as measured between the weekly December high of 109-18 and the weekly January low of 106-06.5). Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108-09 (as measured between the weekly December high of 109-18 and the weekly January low of 106-06.5). If T-notes make it thru this price level it could quickly challenge the weekly December high of 109-18. Open Interest is at the highest level in two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that notes are oversold on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in February. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in six months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since the end of July. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in seven months.

International Bonds - March Canadian 10-year Bonds find near term support at the January low of 112.63. Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.17 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 109.68 and the weekly December high of 116.20). If this support does not hold, the market could decline to last year's double bottom low between 109.72 in April and 109.68 in June. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 113.37 (March CGB's have made equal or lower weekly highs for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for it to challenge the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113.99 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and the weekly January low of 112.63). Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.84 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and the weekly January low of 112.63). If the rally does not end here CGB's could test the contract high of 115.90 or the weekly December high of 116.20.   March Euro Bunds find near term support clustered between last week's multi-month low of 114.62 and last year's weekly double bottom low between 114.55 and 114.65. A break below the double bottom could smash the bunds down to the 2004 low of 111.81. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 115.34 (March bunds have only broken a previous week's high once in the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If bunds can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could finally terminate the down trend. If this occurs look for a rally to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 116.25 (as measured between the weekly December high of 118.88 and last week's multi-month low of 114.62). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 117.25 (as measured between the weekly December high of 118.88 and last week's multi-month low of 114.62).  March London Long Gilts find near term support at last week's multi-year low of 105.95. Further support may not be found again until the 2004 low of 104.86 or the 1999 low of 104.29. Failure to stabilize at that level could really hammer the long gilts and send them plunging to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.58 (as measured between the 1990 monthly low of 66.69 and the 2003 monthly high of 124.77). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 106.41 (March gilts have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for nine consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If gilts can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average the market could rally to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107.79 (as measured between the weekly September high of 110.76 and last week's multi-year low of 105.95). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108.92 (as measured between the weekly September high of 110.76 and last week's multi-year low of 105.95).  March Australian 10-year Bonds find near term support at last week's new multi-month low of 94.03. Further support is at the weekly 2004 low of 93.88. If this low is broken expect these bonds to go "down under" and hit the 2002 low of 93.40. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 94.185 (March Aussie bonds have only broken a previous week's high once in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If this market can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for a run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.235 (as measured between the weekly September high of 94.565 and the current contract low of 94.03). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.36 (as measured between the weekly September high of 94.565 and the current contract low of 94.03).  March JGB's  find near term resistance between the January high of 135.10 and the contract high of 135.20. Further resistance is at the weekly December high of 135.89 in confluence with the 2005 weekly low of 135.90 (old support) and the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 136.18 (as measured between the 2003 weekly all-time high of 145.04 and the 2006 weekly low of 130.71). If the rally does not end here JGBs could run to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.29 (as measured between the 2005 double top weekly high of 141.35 and the 2006 weekly low of 130.71). Near term support is located between the weekly January low of 133.30 and the weekly October low of 133.18. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.69 (as measured between the 2006 weekly low of 130.71 and the weekly December high of 135.89) followed by the daily December spike low of 132.50. If JGBs can't find support in this area they may erode to the 2006 weekly low of 130.71.

Currencies - The US Dollar Index finds near term resistance at the January high of 85.25. Further resistance is at the weekly double top between the weekly October high of 87.08 and the weekly July high of 87.05. If these highs are exceeded look for the greenback to make a run for a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 88.58 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 92.53 and last year's weekly low of 82.18). Near term support is at last week's low of 84.25 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If this market trades below a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 83.97. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 83.18 or the January low of 82.90. A drop below last month's low could put the buck at risk of a break down to the 2004 low of 80.48 and the 1995 low of 80.14. Open Interest is at the lowest level since September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is nearing overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move sideways in February. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since late October. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a small net short position.

The Canadian Dollar finds near term support at last week's new contract low of .8431. Further support is clustered between a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8382 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low of .7135 and the 2006 all-time high of .9152), the weekly November 2005 reaction low of .8357, and a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8350 (as measured between the 2005 weekly low of .7855 and the 2006 all-time high of .9152). If the "looney" does not stabilize in this area it could be doomed to decline to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8013 (as measured between the 2002 all-time low of .6170 and the 2006 all-time high of .9152). Near term resistance is at last week's high of .8533 (the March Canadian dollar has made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last two months). If this market can take out a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for a run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8706 (as measured between the weekly 2006 high of .9152 and the current contract low of .8452). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8885 (as measured between the weekly 2006 high of .9152 and the current contract low of .8431). Open Interest is sitting flat at high levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should trade lower in February. Commercial interests continue to add to their record size net long position. Large traders have aggressively continued to add to their record size net short position. Small traders are holding the largest net short position since June of 2005.

The Australian Dollar finds near term support at last week's multi-week low of .7688. Further support is about a penny lower at a weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7598 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of .7006 and last week's high of .7964). If the Aussie does not stabilize here it could slip to the weekly October correction low of .7404 followed closely by the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7372 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of .7006 and last week's high of .7964). Near term resistance is at a potential head and shoulders top formation on the weekly chart between the weekly December high of .7930, the contract high of .7964, and the January 23rd reaction high of .7925. Further resistance looms just above it between the 2005 high of .7992 and the 2004 high of .7980. If this price barrier is conquered the Aussie could be catapulted to the 1996 high of .8210. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie dollar is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to trade slightly lower in February. Commercials covered a small amount of their record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a huge net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since October.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar may have ended the bear market slide when it rallied about two cents off of the low. This rally created an overbalancing of price since it was the largest rally off of a low during the nearly four month decline. If the spread closes above the January 26th reaction high of .0773 and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since early October, consider it a confirmation of the trend change and look for a rally to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .1029 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of .1612 and the weekly January low of .0668 premium Canadian dollar). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1251 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between last year's all-time weekly high of .1612 and the weekly January low of .0668 premium Canadian dollar). Near term support is at the daily January low of .0574 premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0454 premium Canadian dollar. If the spread sinks right below this retracement it could hit the weekly 2005 low of .0162.

The British Pound finds near term resistance is at multi-year January high of 1.9914. Further resistance is at the 1992 high of 2.0088. A strong breakout above it could allow cable to run back up to a major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 2.1459 (as measured between the 1980 all-time high of 2.4485 and the 1985 all-time low of 1.0345). Near term support is found between the January low of 1.9265 and an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.9230 (as measured between the weekly June correction low of 1.8124 and the multi-year January high of 1.9914). Further support is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8808 (as measured between the weekly June correction low of 1.8124 and the multi-year January high of 1.9914) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.8818 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and the multi-year January high of 1.9914). If sterling fails to recover from this level it could drop to the weekly October correction low of 1.8529. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is near overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The pound has a seasonal tendency to decline slightly in February. Commercials are adding to their record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) increased their record size net long position. Small traders are holding a big net long position.

The March Swiss Franc finds near term support at the January low of .7979. Further support is at the weekly October low of .7879. If this low is broken the Swissie might be inclined to visit the weekly double bottom between the 2005 low of .7548 and the 2006 low of .7560. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .8123 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for it to challenge the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8177 (as measured between the contract high of .8497 and the January low of .7979). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8299 (as measured between the contract high of .8497 and the January low of .7979). If the rally does not end here the Swissie may try to challenge the contract high of .8497. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-December. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swissie is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually trades sideways in February. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since late October. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are holding their largest net short position in three months.

The Euro Currency finds near term support at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2903 in confluence with a double bottom at the January 26th low of 1.2901 and the January 12th low of 1.2901. A break below this level could cause a slide to the contract low of 1.2579 in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1.2564 (the Euro has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since March) or even a double bottom between the weekly October low of 1.2526 and the weekly July low of 1.2503. If the Euro does not rebound off these lows it could lose another two cents and decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2315 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.1661 and the weekly December high of 1.3373). Near term resistance is at the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December), last week's high of 1.3092, and the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3102 (as measured between the contract high of 1.3427 and the January low of 1.2901). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for it to challenge the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3226 (as measured between the contract high of 1.3427 and the January low of 1.2901). Further resistance is at the contract high of 1.3427. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-November. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is near oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Euro should drop in February. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since October. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since early November. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since October.

The March Euro currency/Swiss franc spread finds near term support at the daily January low of .4880 premium Euro (the spread has not broken a previous month's low on the daily chart since September) followed closely by the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below in over a year. A close below this weekly 18-bar Moving Average could send the spread down to the weekly October low of .4654 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .4638 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and the weekly December high of .4982). Near term resistance is at the current all-time high of .5027 on the daily chart. A breakout to new highs again could take this spread anywhere since it would enter uncharted territory once again.

The Japanese Yen finds near term support at last week's nearly four year low of .008238. Further support as at the psychological .008000 mark. If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge the 2002 low of .007415. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .008378 (the March yen has made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks and lower weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-December). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for it to challenge the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008476 (as measured between the daily December high of .008860 and the contract low of .008238). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008622 (as measured between the daily December high of .008860 and the contract low of .008238) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near .008618 (the yen has not closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since April 2005). Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to decline in a choppy fashion during the month of February. Commercial interests increased the size of their record net long position. Large traders increased the size of their record net short position. Small traders are still neutral on the yen.

Metals - April Gold finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of $667.20 (all-sessions). If this high is exceeded gold could surge to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $692.40 (as measured between the contract high of $765.00 and the contract low of $575.00) followed closely by the daily July reaction high of $695.00 (all-sessions). If the market does not back down from here it could surge to last year's multi-year high of $732.00. Near term support is at last week's low of $646.60 (April gold has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks). Further support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $591.00 (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month since August of 2001) followed closely by the daily October low of $575.00 (all-sessions). After that gold could hit the monthly June reaction low of $555.00 (all-sessions) followed closely by the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $548.80 (as measured between the 1999 multi-decade low of $252.50 and the 2006 multi-decade high of $732.00). Open Interest reached a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is nearing overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that gold should decline sharply in February. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since August. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are still holding a sizable net long position.

March Silver finds near term resistance at last week's high of $13.835 (all-sessions). If this high is exceeded silver may visit the daily December high of $14.37 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of $14.97 (all-sessions). A strong close above fifteen bucks could send silver soaring to the psychological twenty dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $13.11 (March silver has only broken a previous week's low once in the last four weeks). Further support is at the January low of $12.095 (all-sessions). A break below last month's low could pull the market right to a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $11.255 (as measured between the weekly June correction low of $9.45 and the weekly December high of $14.18) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $11.24 (silver has only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average one time since July of 2003). If the market does not stabilize at this level it could hit the weekly September low of $10.415. Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is nearing an overbought level on the weekly chart. Seasonally, silver should move higher for the first half of February and decline in the second half. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since last Spring. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position in nearly two months. Small traders are neutral on silver.

March Copper finds near term support at last week's new multi-month low of 238.50 (all-sessions). Further support is at the 2006 low of 200.25 followed by the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 196.20 (as measured between the 2001 low of 60.35 on the all-session monthly chart and the 2006 all-time high of 416.00 on the all-session monthly chart). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 265.40 (March copper has made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly two months). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could attempt a rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 285.40 (as measured between the contract high of 361.20 and the contract low of 238.50) followed closely by the daily January high of 287.10 (March copper has made lower monthly highs and lower monthly lows for consecutive months). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 314.30 (as measured between the contract high of 361.20 and the contract low of 238.50). Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move higher in February. Commercials increased their record size net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their large net short copper position in over four years. Small traders are neutral on copper.

Energies - March Crude Oil may have signaled a trend change when it broke a previous week's high for the first time since early December and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-December. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $59.25. Further resistance is at a technical price cluster between the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $60.46 (as measured between the daily December high of $66.29 and the current contract low of $51.03), the daily November low of $60.61 (old support), and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $60.79 (as measured between the all-time weekly high of $78.40 and the current weekly January low of $49.90). If the rally does not end here crude oil may test the weekly December high of $64.15. Near term support is at the daily contract low of $51.03 (all-sessions). A break to new lows could put the market right down to the weekly January low of $49.90. If this low is broken crude oil could collapse to a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $40.27 (as measured between the 2001 low of $16.70 on the all-session monthly continuous chart and the current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session monthly continuous chart), the December 2004 correction low of $40.25 (all-sessions), and the 2003 high of $39.99 (old resistance). Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move sideways in February. Commercial interests are holding one of their biggest net long positions in nearly eleven months. Large traders are holding a very large net short position. Small traders are neutral.

March Heating Oil signaled a trend reversal when it broke a previous week's high for the first time since early December and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-December. Near term resistance is at last week's one month high of 170.00. Further resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 174.06 (as measured between the daily November high of 190.40 and the current contract low of 147.62). If the rally does not stop here March heating oil may rally as high as the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 189.61 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 217.00 and the weekly January low of 145.30) or the daily November high of 190.40. Near term support is at the contract low of 147.62. Further support is at the weekly January low of 145.30. If heating oil makes a new low for the year it could plummet to the May 2005 correction low of 133.40. Open Interest is flat. Seasonally, heating oil should decline thru most of February and rally in the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since December 2004. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since October 2005. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in eleven months.

March Natural Gas finds near term resistance at the daily January high of 7.966. (March natural gas has made lower monthly highs for four out of the last five months). A break out above last month's high could send the market up to the daily November high of 8.920. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.671 (as measured between the daily August high of 11.823 and the current contract low of 6.190). Near term support is at the current contract low of 6.190. Further support is at the weekly December low of 5.740. A break below the weekly December low should take the market down to the psychological 5.000 mark. If natural gas does not stabilize here look for a drop to the 2006 weekly low of 4.050. Open Interest is flat at high levels. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to drop in February. Commercial interests are the smallest net short position since May. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since June. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position in months.

Meats - April Live Cattle finds near term resistance at last week's high of 94.67. Further resistance is at the contract high of 94.97. If this high is taken out April cattle could run up to the weekly 2005 high of 97.12. Near term support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 92.22 (as measured between the daily October low of 87.80 and the contract high of 94.97) and the January low of 92.30 (April live cattle has made higher monthly lows for eight out of the last nine months). A break below last month's low could cause a decline to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 90.52 (as measured between the daily October low of 87.80 and the contract high of 94.97). Further support is at the October low of 87.80. Open Interest is at the highest level since May. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally slightly in February. Commercial interests are holding a very small net long position. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position since last summer. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since July.

March Feeders finds near term resistance at a double top between the daily January high of 99.80 and the daily December high of 99.75. A strong close above these highs could allow drive market to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 103.60 (as measured between the contract high of 111.70 and the contract low of 90.45). Further resistance is at the contract high of 111.70. Near term support is at an intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 90.55 (as measured between the 2002 low of 72.52 and the 2005 all-time high of 119.75) and the daily contract low of 90.45. Further support is at the psychological 85 area. Open Interest is at the highest level since the beginning of September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are oversold on the weekly chart. Seasonally, feeders should move sideways in February. Commercials increased the size of their biggest net long position on record. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position in four months. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since August.

April Lean Hogs find near term resistance at last week's two month high of 68.70. Further resistance is at the contract high of 70.15. A breakout to new highs could allow April hogs to go screaming up to last year's weekly chart high of 77.25. Near term support is at last week's low of 67.00 (April hogs have made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). Further support is at a current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 64.87 (as measured between the daily January low of 62.52 and last week's high of 68.70). After that April hogs could test the daily January low of 62.52. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are nearing overbought on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to move lower in February. Commercials are holding the largest net short position since November. Large traders (hedge funds) are still holding a sizable net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since July 2004.

Grains - March Soybeans find near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $7.38 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the weekly 2005 high of $7.574 (all-sessions). If this high is exceeded look for beans to quickly hit the psychological eight dollar mark. Near term support is at the double bottom between the daily December low of $6.572 (all-sessions) and the daily January low of $6.57 (all-sessions) . If the market does not stabilize here it could plummet to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.296 (as measured between the contract low of $5.63 and the current contract high of $7.38). Further support is at the psychological six dollar level. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move sideways for the first half of February and rally during the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since May 2004. Large traders are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since August.

March Soy Meal finds near term resistance at the contract high of $216.80 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the weekly 2005 high of $238.00. If the 2005 high is taken out, meal could climb to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $289.90 (as measured between the 2004 all-time high of $378.50 and the November 2004 multi-year low of $146.60). Near term support is found between an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $198.40 (as measured between the daily December low of $187.00 and the contract high of $216.80) and the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $196.10 (as measured between the contract low of $162.50 and the October high of $216.80). Failure to establish support in this area could result in a drop to the daily December low of $187.00 or even the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $183.20 (as measured between the contract low of $162.50 and the October high of $216.80). Open Interest is almost at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that meal is nearly overbought on the weekly chart. Seasonally, soy meal should move lower in the first half of February and rally during the second half of the month. February usually marks an important seasonal low for meal. Commercials are holding the largest net short position since June 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a very large net long position.

March Bean Oil finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 30.55 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at a major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 31.68 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 35.18 and the weekly 2005 low of 18.82). If the rally does not end there the market may be intent on challenging the 2004 high of 35.18. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 28.16 (as measured between the contract low of 24.29 and the contract high of 30.55) followed closely by the daily January low of 27.88. If the market does not stabilize here expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 26.68 (as measured between the contract low of 24.29 and the contract high of 30.55). Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the weekly chart. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to rally in February. Commercial interests are holding a huge net short position. Large traders are a very sizable net long position. Small traders are holding a large net long position.

March Corn finds near term resistance at the contract high of $4.204 (all-sessions). A breakout to new highs could take the market on up to the $4.50 mark or even the psychological five dollar level. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.544 (as measured between the contract low of $2.48 and the contract high of $4.204) in confluence with the daily January low of $3.524. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.136 (as measured between the contract low of $2.48 and the contract high of $4.204). Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways in February. Commercial interests increased the size of their record net short position. Large traders increased the size of their record net long position. Small traders are holding a huge net short position.

March Rice finds near term support at last week's low of 10.050 in confluence with the December low of 10.040. A break below this level could allow the market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.855 (as measured between the August low of 9.300 and the contract high of 10.750) followed closely by the daily October low of 9.830. Further support is at the contract low of 9.300. Near term resistance is at the huge gap on the daily chart between 10.350 and 10.480 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.485 (as measured between last week's low of 10.050 and the contract high of 10.750). If the gap is filled March rice may try to test the contract high of 10.750 (all-sessions). A break out to new contract highs could send rice to the 2004 weekly high of 11.320. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is nearing oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, rice should decline in February. Commercial interests covered some of their record net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding a historically large net long position.

March Oats find near term support at the daily January low of $2.46 (March oats have made higher monthly lows for eight out of the last ten months). A break below last month's low could cause a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.28 (as measured between the August low of $1.896 and the contract high of $2.896) in confluence with the daily October 23rd reaction low of $2.274. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.65 (March oats have only broken a previous week's high once in the last five weeks). The January and December highs of $2.794 and $2.806 offer further resistance. After that March oats could take on the contract high of $2.896. A trade at new highs could quickly take the market to the weekly 1996 high of $2.96. Open Interest is at the highest level since April of 2000. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are near overbought territory on the weekly and monthly charts. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in the first half of February and decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since November. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a big net long position.

March Wheat finds near term support at the January low of $4.474 (all sessions). Further support is at the weekly May high of $4.33 (old resistance). If wheat does not stabilize here it could plummet to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $3.964 (wheat has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month for the last year) in confluence with the daily August low of $3.95 and followed closely by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.87 (as measured between the 2004 low of $2.824 and last year's high of $5.56). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $4.72 (March wheat has made lower weekly highs for five consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has only closed above one time in the last month. If March wheat can clear the previous week's high and close back above the 18-day Moving Average it could signal a trend change and rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $4.904 (as measured between the contract high of $5.60 and the January low of $4.474). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $5.17 (as measured between the contract high of $5.60 and the January low of $4.474). If the rally does not end here March wheat could challenge the contract high of $5.600. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is nearly oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways thru most of February and decline in the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position in four months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since September. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since October.

Softs - March Coffee finds near term support clustered between the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below since September, the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 115.90 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 93.50 and last year's weekly high of 129.75), and the daily January low of 115.30. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.60 (as measured between the contract low of 101.85 and the contract high of 130.00). If the decline does not end here coffee could spill to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 117.40 in confluence with the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107.35 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 93.50 and last year's weekly high of 129.75). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 119.40 (March coffee has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could attempt a rally to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 124.40 (as measured between the contract high of 130.00 and the daily January low of 115.30). Further resistance is at the contract high of 130.00. After that March coffee could run to the 2005 high of 137.00 on the weekly continuous chart. If coffee clears the 2005 high it could hit the 1999 high of 145.00 very quickly. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should rally sharply in February. Commercials are holding the smallest net short coffee position since October. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in three months. Small traders are still neutral on the coffee market.

March Cocoa made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart last week when it dropped below a seven week low and then reversed to trade above a three week high. Incidentally, the initial drop was a pull back into support at a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement. This price action is very bullish. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $1,658. A trade above it should cause a quick rally to the daily January high of $1,696. Further resistance is located at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,727 (as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 low of $1,299) in confluence with the weekly July high of $1,732. If the rally does not end here March cocoa may hit the daily contract high of $1,792. Near term support is at last week's multi-week low of $1,566. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,533 (as measured between the contract low of $1,433 and the daily January high of $1,696). If March cocoa does not stabilize here it may plummet to the contract low of $1,433. Open Interest is flat. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to move sideways thru the first half of February and decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a large net short position. Large traders are holding a sizable net long position. Small traders are neutral on cocoa at the moment.

March Sugar finds near term resistance support at last week's new contract low of 10.35. Further support is at the weekly September low of 9.70. If this low gets taken out, sugar could hit the psychological nine cent mark fairly quick. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 10.71 (March sugar has made lower weekly highs for eight out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average, a short-covering rally could run the market back up to the January high of 11.66 (March sugar has only broken a previous month's high once in the last nine months). If the rally is not contained here sugar could keep running up to the October high of 12.65. Open Interest hit a new all-time high again. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should rally slightly thru most of February and then decline in the last week of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since May of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral.

March Orange Juice plunged to a three month low last week. Near term support is at last week's low of 184.20. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 180.80 (as measured between the daily October correction low of 163.50 and the current contract high of 208.80). Failure to stabilize here could send the market down to the daily October correction low of 163.50. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 203.80. After that look for major technical resistance between the contract high of 208.80 and last year's weekly high of 209.40. A breakout past this double top could launch the market to the psychological 2.25 mark in a short amount of time. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is near overbought on the monthly chart and near oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, OJ should decline in February. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in three months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

March Cotton finds near term support between the daily January low of 52.85 and the daily December low of 52.51. Further support is at the contract low of 50.81. A break to new lows could puts the bulls in hot water and cause March cotton prices to shrink down to the weekly November low of 46.50. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 54.40 (March cotton has made lower weekly highs for five consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above in nearly a month. If March cotton can clear a previous week's high and break above the 18-day Moving Average it should challenge the January 12th reaction high of 55.19. A strong close above it could clear the way for March cotton to take on the December high of 57.05 or the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 57.51 (as measured between the daily June high of 61.65 and the contract low of 50.81). If this barrier is conquered look for the market to visit a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 58.35 (as measured between the weekly 2003 high of 84.80 and the weekly 2004 double bottom low of 42 cents). Open Interest is at the highest level since early November. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to decline sharply in the first week of February and then rally sharply for the rest of the month. Commercials are neutral on cotton. Large traders (hedge funds) are slightly bearish. Small traders remain neutral.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2007 Pearce Financial, LLC
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