The June NASDAQ 100 finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of 1734.00. Further support is at the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1711.40 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 1458.00 on the weekly continuous chart and the weekly January high of 1868.00) and the weekly March 5th low of 1704.75. If the market breaks below these lows it could decline to the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1614.60 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 1458.00 on the weekly continuous chart and the weekly January high of 1868.00). Major support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1458.90 (as measured between the 2002 low of 797.00 and this year's current weekly high of 1868.00) in confluence with last year's low of 1458.00. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1822.70. Further resistance is at the weekly January high of 1868.00. More resistance is at the psychological 2000 mark. After that the market could challenge the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2081.50. Open Interest is at the highest level since December. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 reached an oversold level on the daily chart. The NASDAQ 100 should trade sideways in a choppy range in March. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in two months. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in a year!

Interest rates - June T-bonds  find near term resistance at the February 27th high of 114-02. Further resistance is at the weekly December high of 114-29 followed by the weekly 2006 high of 115-13. If T-bonds can clear last year's high they could race to the 2004 high of 117-26. Near term support is at last week's low of 112-09 (T-bonds have made equal or higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-02 (as measured between this year's current daily low of 109-06 and this year's current daily high of 114-02). If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to major technical support between the weekly January low of 109-06 and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-00 (as measured between last year's weekly double bottom low of 105-11 and the weekly December high of 114-29). Failure to recover at this level could pull the rug out from under the bond market and send it all the way down to last year's weekly double bottom low of 105-11. The March NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term resistance at the daily February high of 4-17. After that the spread could challenge the daily spread high of 5-01 premium T-bonds or even last year's weekly spread high of 5-07 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the 2005 all-time closing high of 5-14 on the monthly continuous chart. Important technical support is at the daily January low of 3-00 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-12.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily contract low of 24/32nds premium T-bonds and the current spread high of 5-01 premium T-bonds). If the spread does not stabilize in this area it is quite possible that the spread will decline to the daily contract low of 24/32nds premium T-bonds. Open Interest is running high in T-bonds. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are moving near overbought territory on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move sideways to slightly lower in March. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since mid-July. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since June. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since mid-December.

June T-Notes find near term resistance clustered between last week's multi-week high of 109-11.5, a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109-11.5 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 117-31 and last year's weekly low of 104-01), and the weekly December high of 109-18. Further resistance is clustered between the 2006 weekly high of 110-06.5, the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 114-16 and the 2006 weekly low of 104-01), and the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-17.5 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 121-03 and the 2006 weekly low of 104-01). If T-notes make it thru this barrier of price resistance it could indicate that the market is headed to the 2005 weekly high of 114-16 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-18.5 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 121-03 and the 2006 weekly low of 104-01). Near term support is at last week's low of 108-07.5 (T-notes have made equal or higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107-13 (as measured between this year's current daily low of 106-06.5 and this year's current daily high of 109-11.5). If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to major technical support at the weekly January low of 106-06.5 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106-04.5 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 104-01 and the weekly December high of 109-18). If this support does not hold, the T-notes could plunge to last year's weekly low of 104-01. Open Interest is at the lowest level in over two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are nearing overbought levels on the daily and weekly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in March. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position in two months. Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position.

International Bonds - June Canadian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 114.51. Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.84 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and the weekly January low of 112.63). If the rally does not end here CGB's could test the weekly December high of 116.20. Near term support is at last week's low of 113.81 (CGB's have only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.09 (as measured between this year's current daily low of 112.22 and last week's high of 114.50). If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to this year's current daily low of 112.22 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.17 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 109.68 and the weekly December high of 116.20). If this support does not hold, the market could decline to last year's double bottom low between 109.72 in April and 109.68 in June.    June Euro Bunds find near term resistance at last week's multi-week high of 116.37. Further resistance is at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 117.25 (as measured between the weekly December high of 118.88 and last week's multi-month low of 114.62). If the rally does not end here perhaps bunds will race to the weekly December high of 118.88. Near term support is at last week's low of 115.74 (June Euro bunds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.99 (as measured between the contract low of 114.14 and last week's high of 116.37). If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to this year's current weekly low of 114.62 and last year's weekly double bottom low between 114.55 and 114.65. A break below the double bottom could smash the bunds down to the 2004 low of 111.81.  June London Long Gilts find near term resistance is at last week's high of 109.79 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.82 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 105.95). Further resistance is at the weekly September high of 110.76. If the rally does not end here gilts may hit the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.21 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 105.95). Near term support is at last week's low of 109.05 (gilts have made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108.45 (as measured between the contract low of 107.62 and last week's high of 109.79). If the market does not stabilize here it could challenge the contract low of 107.62. A break to new lows could send June long gilts all the way down to this year's current weekly low of 105.95.   June Australian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 94.41 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.41.5 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 94.03). If the market keeps running up it could quickly hit the weekly September high of 94.565. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.65 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 94.03). Near term support is at last week's low of 94.33 (Aussie bonds have not broken a previous week's low in the last five weeks ) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early February). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.17 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 94.03 and last week's high of 94.40.5 on the weekly chart). If the market does not stabilize here it could drop back down to this year's current weekly low of 94.03. A break to new lows could send the Aussie bonds "down under" and hit the 2002 low of 93.40.  June JGB's  find near term resistance at last week's daily high of 135.00. Further resistance is at the weekly February high of 135.50. If the rally does not stop here look for JGBs to hit the weekly December high of 135.89 in confluence with the 2005 weekly low of 135.90 (old support) or even the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 136.18 (as measured between the 2003 weekly all-time high of 145.04 and the 2006 weekly low of 130.71). If the market can break thru this barrier it could continue it's run to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.29 (as measured between the 2005 double top weekly high of 141.35 and the 2006 weekly low of 130.71). Near term support is at last week's low of 133.98 (JGBs have made higher weekly lows for four consecutive weeks). A close below a previous week's low could cause a decline back down to the weekly January low of 133.30 or the weekly October low of 133.18. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.69 (as measured between the 2006 weekly low of 130.71 and the weekly December high of 135.89) followed by the daily December spike low of 132.50.

Currencies - The US Dollar Index finds near term resistance at last week's high of 84.05 in confluence with a big chart gap on the daily chart between 84.08 and 84.30. This coincides with a daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.19. If the greenback can get thru this price barrier it may hit the daily January high of 84.92 or the weekly January high of 85.25. Further resistance is at the weekly double top between the weekly October high of 87.08 and the weekly July high of 87.05. If these highs are exceeded look for the greenback to make a run for a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 88.58 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 92.53 and last year's weekly low of 82.18). Near term support is found at the daily March low of 83 cents. A break below it could cause the buck to hit last year's weekly low of 82.18. If last year's low is broken the greenback could crater to the 2004 low of 80.48 and the 1995 low of 80.14. Open Interest is at a two and a half month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is nearing oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move higher thru most of March and decline during the last week of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position in two months. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are holding a small net short position.

The Canadian Dollar finds near term support at last week's low of .8483 followed closely by the contract low of .8454. The weekly February low lurks just below at .8427. Further support is clustered between a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8382 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low of .7135 and the 2006 all-time high of .9152), the weekly November 2005 reaction low of .8357, and a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8350 (as measured between the 2005 weekly low of .7855 and the 2006 all-time high of .9152). If the "looney" does not stabilize in this area it could be doomed to decline to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8013 (as measured between the 2002 all-time low of .6170 and the 2006 all-time high of .9152). Near term resistance is at the February reaction high of .8676 followed by the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8704 (as measured between the weekly 2006 high of .9152 and this year's current weekly low of .8427). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8875 (as measured between the weekly 2006 high of .9152 and this year's current weekly low of .8427). Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should trade sideways in March. Commercial interests are holding a near-record size net long position. Large traders are holding a near-record size net short position. Small traders are negative on the "looney".

The Australian Dollar formed a major head and shoulders top formation on the weekly chart between the weekly December high of .7930, the contract high of .7964, and the weekly February high of .7943. This could be a major top for the Aussie dollar. However, a rally above these highs would put it right in harm's way again as it will face technical resistance between the 2005 high of .7992 and the 2004 high of .7980. If this price barrier is conquered the Aussie could be catapulted to the 1996 high of .8210. Near term support at last week's multi-week low of .7652. Further support is at a weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7598 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of .7006 and last week's high of .7964). If the Aussie does not stabilize here it could slip to the weekly October correction low of .7404 followed closely by the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7372 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of .7006 and last week's high of .7964). Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie dollar is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to trade slightly lower in March. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in five months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since October. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar is locked in a sideways trading range. Near term resistance is at the February high of .0847 premium Canadian dollar. A breakout above last month's daily high could send the spread up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .1009 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between the daily September high of .1641 and the daily January low of .0619 premium Canadian dollar). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1251 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between the daily September high of .1641 and the daily January low of .0619 premium Canadian dollar) followed closely by the daily November high of .1285. Near term support is at the daily January low of .0619 premium Canadian dollar. A break to new contract lows could send the June spread down to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0454 premium Canadian dollar. If the spread sinks right below this retracement it could hit the weekly 2005 low of .0162.

The British Pound dropped to a multi-month low and tested an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.9177. Further support is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8808 (as measured between the weekly June correction low of 1.8124 and the multi-year January high of 1.9914) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.8818 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and the multi-year January high of 1.9914). If sterling fails to recover from this level it could drop to the weekly October correction low of 1.8529. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.9440 (the June British pound has only broken a previous week's high once in the last six weeks) in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.9447 (as measured between the contract high of 1.9883 and last week's low of 1.9177). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.9613 (as measured between the contract high of 1.9883 and last week's low of 1.9177) followed by the February 15th reaction high of 1.9671. If cable does not stop here it could hit the contract high of 1.9883 or even the multi-year weekly January high of 1.9914. Further resistance is at the 1992 high of 2.0088. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is oversold on the daily chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in March. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since early October. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are reducing the size of their net long position.

The June Swiss Franc finds near term resistance at last week's two month high of .8331 followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8355 (as measured between the contract high of .8497 and the January low of .7979). Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of .8428. A breakout above this high could send the June Swissie soaring to the contract high of .8547. Near term support is at last week's low of .8162 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost a month) followed closely by current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8154 (as measured between the contract low of .8044 and last week's high of .8331). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the contract low of .8044 or even the weekly January low of .7979. Further support is at the weekly October low of .7879. If this low is broken the Swissie might be inclined to visit the weekly double bottom between the 2005 low of .7548 and the 2006 low of .7560. Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-January. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually declines in March. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since Christmas. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are holding their largest net long position since Christmas.

The Euro Currency may have reversed trend last week when it closed below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in weeks and also broke a previous week's low for the first time in six weeks. A break below last week's low of 1.3127 could allow a further decline to the daily January low of 1.2948. Further support is located at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2903 in confluence with the weekly January low of 1.2901. A break below this level could cause a slide to the contract low of 1.2618 in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1.2630 (the Euro has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since March) or even a double bottom between the weekly October low of 1.2526 and the weekly July low of 1.2503. Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 1.3318. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of 1.3373. A breakout above last year's high could send the Euro currency up to the 2004 all-time high of 1.3687. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-December. Seasonally, the Euro should drop in March. Commercial interests are holding a record size net short position. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in two months.

The March Euro currency/Swiss franc spread finds near term resistance at the current all-time high of .5041 on the daily chart. A breakout to new highs again could take this spread anywhere since it would enter uncharted territory once again. Near term support is located between last week's low of .4889 premium Euro and the daily January low of .4863 premium Euro, followed closely by the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below in over a year. A close below this weekly 18-bar Moving Average could send the spread down to the weekly October low of .4682 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .4638 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and this year's current weekly high of .5053). Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .4452 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and this year's current weekly high of .5053).

The Japanese Yen exploded to a three month high. A breakout above last week's high of .008799 could allow the market to tag the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008854 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of .009864 and this year's current weekly low of .008229). Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of .009217 followed closely by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009239 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of .009864 and this year's current weekly low of .008229). If the rally does not end here the June yen may be able to make a run for the psychological .009500 level. Near term support is at last week's low of .008555 (the June Japanese yen has only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008500. If this level doesn't hold then June yen may drop down to the contract low of .008315 or even this year's current weekly low of .008238. Further support as at the psychological .008000 mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level in over two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is near overbought on the daily chart. The yen has a seasonal tendency to decline in March. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in three months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since early December. Small traders are neutral on the yen.

Metals - April Gold tested support right at a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement followed by an up trend line (as drawn across the weekly October and January reaction lows). A break below last week's low of $634.50 could cause a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $619.90 (as measured between the contract low of $575.00 and the February high of $692.50). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of $603.00 in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $601.50 (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month since August of 2001). If gold does not stabilize in this area it could plummet to the contract low of $575.00. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $670.30. Further resistance is at the February high of $692.50 (all-sessions) in confluence with the major weekly major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $694.10 (as measured between last year's weekly high of $732.00 and last June's weekly low of $555.00). If the rally does not end here expect gold to challenge the 2006 multi-decade high of $732.00. Open Interest recently hit a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that gold should decline in March. Commercials covered some of their huge net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) dumped about a quarter of their large net long position. Small traders are still holding a sizable net long position.

May Silver finds near term support between last week's low of $12.49 (all-sessions) and the daily January low of $12.32 (all-sessions). Further support is at the weekly January low of $12.095 (all-sessions) and a weekly up trend line (as drawn across the weekly June and September reaction lows). If this level doesn't hold silver should hit a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $11.47 (as measured between the weekly June correction low of $9.45 and this year's current weekly high of $14.745) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $11.54 (silver has only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average one time since July of 2003). If the market does not stabilize at this level it could hit the weekly September low of $10.415. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $13.97. Further resistance is at the February high of $14.885 (all-sessions) followed closely by last year's weekly high of $14.97 (all-sessions). A strong close above fifteen bucks could send silver soaring to the psychological twenty dollar mark. Open Interest is at a one month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is nearing an oversold level on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should move lower in March. Commercials started to cover some of their large net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) reduced the size of their large net long position. Small traders are neutral on silver.

May Copper finds near term support between last week's low of 262.50 and the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 259.00. Further support is at the contract low of 239.80. A break to new lows could send May copper plunging down to the 2006 low of 200.25 followed by the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 196.20 (as measured between the 2001 low of 60.35 on the all-session monthly chart and the 2006 all-time high of 416.00 on the all-session monthly chart). Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 290.00 in confluence with the weekly 18-bar Moving Average it has not closed above in the last six months. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 306.30 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 416.00 and this year's current weekly low of 238.50). If copper can clear this resistance look for it to challenge the weekly December reaction high of 327.00. Open Interest is at the lowest level since July of 2004. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the daily chart. Copper has a seasonal tendency to move higher for the first half of March and sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are still sitting on a record size net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) continue to hold on to their largest net short copper position in over four years. Small traders are neutral on copper.

Energies - April Crude Oil finds near term support at last week's low of $59.55 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $55.81. Further support is located between the contract low of $51.68 and the weekly January low of $49.90. If this low is broken crude oil could collapse to a major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $40.27 (as measured between the 2001 low of $16.70 on the all-session monthly continuous chart and the current all-time high of $78.40 on the all-session monthly continuous chart), the December 2004 correction low of $40.25 (all-sessions), and the 2003 high of $39.99 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at the February high of $62.49 followed closely by the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $62.95 (as measured between the contract high of $81.19 and the contract low of $51.68). Further resistance is at the daily December high of $67.02 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $67.51 (as measured between the all-time weekly high of $78.40 and the weekly January low of $49.90). If the rally does not end here crude oil may run as far as the 2005 high of $70.85. If it peaks out here a possible head and shoulders top formation could appear. Open Interest is sitting flat near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move slightly higher in March. Commercial interests are holding their biggest net short position in six months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since early September. Small traders are neutral.

April Heating Oil finds near term resistance at the March 1st high of 179.57 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 179.94 (as measured between the contract high of 229.45 and the contract low of 149.34). Further resistance is at the daily November high of 189.22 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 189.61 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 217.00 and this year's current weekly low of 145.30). If the rally does not end here heating oil may hit the psychological two dollar mark. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 160.89 in confluence with the February 20th reaction low of 160.40. If this support level is breached look for a decline to the contract low of 149.34. Further support is at the weekly January low of 145.30. If heating oil makes a new low for the year it could plummet to the May 2005 correction low of 133.40. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that heating oil is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, heating oil should trade slightly higher in March. Commercial interests are net short for the first time in three months. Large traders are net long for the first time since the beginning of December. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since Christmas.

April Natural Gas finds near term support at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 6.955. Further support is at the contract low of 6.303. A break to new lows could send the market to the weekly December low of 5.740. If natural gas fails to stabilize here look for a decline to the psychological 5.000 mark. Since the contract high was established in April of 2006, the April natural gas contract has made a series of lower lows and lower highs. Therefore, consider the most recent reaction high of 8.011 to be resistance. If this high is exceeded April natural gas could take on the daily November high of 8.373. Further resistance is at the weekly November spike high of 9.050. Open Interest at the lowest level in nearly eleven months. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in March. Commercial interests are starting to increase the size of their net short position again. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since June. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas.

Meats - April Live Cattle exploded to a new contract high of 101.75. If this high is taken out April cattle could keep running toward the all-time weekly high of 103.60. After that cattle is in uncharted territory where anything can happen. Near term support is at last week's low of 96.95 (April live cattle has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for support at the February low of 92.62 (April cattle has only broken a previous month's low once in the last ten months). If last month's low is broken the market could plunge to the major Fibonacci .618 retracement at 89.25 (as measured between the contract low of 81.50 and the contract high of 101.75) or even the October reaction low of 87.80. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should trade sideways in March. Commercial interests are holding their biggest net short position in fourteen months. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position since January 2006. Small traders are still holding a very big net short position.

April Feeders finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of 107.90. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108.95 (as measured between last year's high of 119.35 and this year's current weekly low of 92.10). If the rally does not end here April feeders could challenge the contract high of 110.55. Near term support is at last week's low of 104.30 (April feeders have made higher weekly lows for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for almost month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average expect a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 101.92 (as measured between this year's current daily low of 92.25 and last week's high of 107.90). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 98.22 (as measured between this year's current daily low of 92.25 and last week's high of 107.90). Open Interest is at the highest level in nearly a year. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, feeders should move lower in March. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since early October. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since mid-September. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since August.

April Lean Hogs find near term support at last week's one month low of 64.75. Further support is at a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 62.57 (as measured between the weekly October low of 58.35 and this year's current weekly high of 69.45) in confluence with the daily January low of 62.52. If April hogs do not stabilize there they could decline to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 61 cents (as measured between the contract low of 55.35 and the contract high of 70.15). Near term resistance is at the daily February high of 69.45. Further resistance is at the contract high of 70.15. A breakout to new highs could allow April hogs to go screaming up to last year's weekly chart high of 77.25. Open Interest is at the lowest level since late January. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in March. Commercials are holding the largest net short position since June 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since June 2004.

Grains - April Soybeans find near term support at last week's low of $7.39 (all-sessions) followed by last month's low of $7.33 (May beans have made higher monthly lows for five consecutive months). A further decline could take the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $7.176 (as measured between the contract low of $5.724 and the contract high of $8.076) in confluence with the daily November high of $7.156 (old resistance). If beans do not establish support here they could be headed down to the double bottom between the daily December low of $6.702 (all-sessions) and the daily January low of $6.714 (all-sessions) or even the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.622 (as measured between the contract low of $5.724 and the contract high of $8.076). Near term resistance is at the contract high of $8.076 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs should allow beans to challenge the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.48 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of $10.64 and the weekly 2005 low of $4.984). After that beans could trade at the psychological nine dollar mark. Open Interest dropped just slightly from the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are near overbought on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move much higher in March. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since February 2004. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since September 2005.

May Soy Meal finds near term support at last week's low of $216.10 (all-sessions). A further decline could allow the market to test last month's low of $212.00 (May soy meal has only broken a previous month's low once in the last five months) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $211.60 (as measured between the contract low of $164.70 and the contract high of $240.60). If the market does not stabilize here it could hit current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $193.70 (as measured between the contract low of $164.70 and the contract high of $240.60) in confluence with the daily January low of $193.00 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is at the contract high of $240.60 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could send meal soaring to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $289.90 (as measured between the 2004 all-time high of $378.50 and the November 2004 multi-year low of $146.60). Further resistance is at the weekly 1997 high of $308.50. Open Interest is at a one month low. Seasonally, soy meal should rally in March. February usually marks an important seasonal low for meal. Commercials covered some of their record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) sold a portion of their record size net long position. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since May 2004.

May Bean Oil finds near term support at last week's low of 29.66. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 29.01 (as measured between the daily October low of 24.70 and the contract high of 31.67). After that bean oil might test the daily January low of 28.35. If this low is broken May bean oil could hit the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 27.36 (as measured between the daily October low of 24.70 and the contract high of 31.67). Near term resistance is at the contract high of 31.67 (all-sessions) in confluence with a major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 31.68 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 35.18 and the weekly 2005 low of 18.82). If the rally does not end there the market may be intent on challenging the 2004 high of 35.18. Open Interest is at a one month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is near overbought on the weekly chart. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to rally for most of March. Commercial interests are holding a huge net short position. Large traders are a very sizable net long position. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

May Corn finds near term resistance at the contract high of $4.502 (all-sessions). A breakout to new highs could take the market on up to the psychological five dollar level. If the rally does not end here look for the market to challenge the 1996 all-time high of $5.544 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $4.124 (all-sessions). Further support is at the February low of $4.034 (May corn has only broken a previous month's low once in the last six months). A break below last month's low could hammer May corn down to the daily January low of $3.624 (all-sessions). Failure to stabilize here could cause a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.312 (as measured between the contract low of $2.576 and the contract high of $4.502). Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-January. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways in March. Commercial interests increased the size of their record net short position. Large traders increased the size of their record net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since January 2006.

May Rice finds near term resistance at the February spike high of 10.790. Further resistance is at the contract high of 10.950. A break out to new contract highs could send rice to the 2004 weekly high of 11.320. Near term support is at last week's low of 10.560 (May rice has made equal or higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks). Further support is at the February low of 10.240. If last month's low is broken expect a decline to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.110 (as measured between the August low of 9.590 and the contract high of 10.950) followed closely by the daily October low of 10.110. Further support is at the contract low of 9.590. Open Interest is sitting flat at the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is overbought on the weekly chart. Seasonally, rice should decline slightly in March. Commercial interests are holding a huge net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding a historically large net long position.

May Oats find near term support at the March 1st low of $2.40. Further support is at the weekly 2005 high of $2.206 (old resistance) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.194 (as measured between the weekly2004 low of $1.204 and last year's weekly high of $2.806). If the market does not stabilize here it could trade down to the psychological two dollar mark. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.692 in confluence with the February 26th reaction high of $2.70. If May oats can overcome this hurdle they could test the contract high of $2.872. A breakout to new highs could send the market right to the weekly 1996 high of $2.96. Open Interest is at the highest level since April of 2000. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are near overbought territory on the weekly and monthly charts. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in March. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since August. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in eleven months. Small traders are holding a big net long position.

May Wheat finds near term support clustered between the daily February low of $4.614 (all-sessions), the daily January low of $4.584 (all-sessions), and the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.542 (as measured between the August low of $4.044 and the contract high of $5.35). A breach of this support could send May wheat down to the monthly 2002 high of $4.34 (old resistance) and the weekly May high of $4.33 (old resistance). If wheat does not stabilize here it could plummet to the August low of $4.044 (all-sessions) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $4.03 (wheat has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month for the last year). Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $5.056 followed closely by the February high of $5.09 (all-sessions). A breakout above it could allow May wheat to challenge the contract high of $5.35 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of $5.56 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since May. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should decline in March. Commercial interests are holding a very small net long position. Large traders are also holding a small net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position in three months.

Softs - May Coffee  finds near term support at last week's low of 111.25. Further support is at the daily September low of 107.50 in confluence with a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107.35 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 93.50 and last year's weekly high of 129.75). If coffee does not stabilize here it could spill to the psychological one dollar mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 114.90 (May coffee has made lower weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late December). If the market breaks above a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for a rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 119.55 (as measured between the contract high of 133.00 and last week's low of 111.25). Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 124.70 (as measured between the contract high of 133.00 and last week's low of 111.25). If the rally does not end here coffee could hit last year's weekly high of 129.75. Open Interest is near the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should trade sideways in March. Commercials are holding the smallest net short coffee position since October. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are still neutral on the coffee market.

May Cocoa made a change in trend last week when the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in over a month and the market broke a two week low. A decline below last week's low of $1,697 could send it to an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,681 (as measured between the January double bottom low at $1,601 and the contract high of $1,810) in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,675 (as measured between the contract low at $1,456 and the contract high of $1,810). Further support is located between the January double bottom low at $1,601 and the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,591 (as measured between the contract low at $1,456 and the contract high of $1,810). If the decline does not end here May cocoa may be destined to retreat to the contract low at $1,456. Near term resistance is at the contract high of $1,810. A strong close above it could catapult cocoa up to the weekly 2005 high of $1,850. If this high is exceeded the market may rally to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,992 (as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 low of $1,299). Open Interest is at the highest level since July. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is still near overbought on the weekly chart. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to rally in the first half of March and decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are now holding a record size net short position. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are still neutral on cocoa.

May Sugar finds near term resistance at an intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 11.47 (as measured between the daily September reaction high at 13.62 and the contract low of 10.14) in confluence with the March 2nd reaction high of 11.48. Further resistance is at an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 12.29 (as measured between the daily September reaction high at 13.62 and the contract low of 10.14) followed by the daily November high of 12.47. If the rally does not end here May sugar could run to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 13.53 (as measured between the 2006 weekly high at 19.73 and the 2006 weekly low of 9.70) in confluence with the daily September reaction high at 13.62. Near term support is at last week's low of 10.48. Further support is at the contract low of 10.14. If May sugar hits a new contract low it could quickly test the weekly September low of 9.70. If this low gets taken out, sugar could hit the psychological nine cent mark fairly quick. Open Interest started to decline from the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is near oversold on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should decline in March. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since Christmas. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position in two months. Small traders are neutral.

May Orange Juice finds resistance at the current contract high of 205.80. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 209.50. A breakout above it could launch the market to the psychological 2.25 mark or even the 2.50 level in a short amount of time. Near term support is at last week's low of 198.70 (May OJ has made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 190.80 (as measured between the January correction low of 181.50 and the current contract high of 208.80). Failure to stabilize here could send the market down to the daily January correction low of 181.50. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-January. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should rally in March. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in six months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since May. Small traders are neutral.

May Cotton finds near term support at last week's low of 52.90 (may cotton has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for three consecutive weeks). Further support is at the contract low of 51.50. If May cotton breaks to a new low it could trade down to a weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 49.60 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 45 cents and the weekly December high of 57.05). If cotton does not stabilize here it could decline to the weekly November low of 46.50. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 54.75. Further resistance is at the daily February high of 55.49. A strong close above it could clear the way for May cotton to take on the December high of 57.50. If this barrier is conquered look for the market to test the weekly 2005 high of 60.50. Open Interest is nearing a record high. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move sideways for most of March and then decline sharply in the last week of the month. Commercials are holding a small net long position in cotton. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a sizable net short position. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since April of 2005.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2007 Pearce Financial, LLC
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