The June NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at last week's new multi-year high of 1910.00 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological 2000 mark. After that the market could challenge the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2081.50. If the June NASDAQ 100 does not slow down here look for it to soar to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2357.50 (as measured between the 2000 all-time high of 4882.00 and the 2002 low of 797.00). Near term support is located at last week's low of 1855.50 (the NASDAQ 100 has made higher weekly lows for seven consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for a over a month. If the market breaks below a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could sell off to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1842.40 (as measured between the daily March low of 1732.00 and the current contract high of 1910.00). Further support is at current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1800.00 (as measured between the daily March low of 1732.00 and the current contract high of 1910.00). After that the NASDAQ 100 does not find techncial support until between the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1737.40 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 1458.00 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of 1910.00) and the weekly March low of 1704.75. Further support is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1630.50 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 1458.00 on the weekly continuous chart and this year's current high of 1901.00). Open Interest is at the lowest level since early January. The NASDAQ 100 should head lower in May. Commercial interests are holding the largest net long position since early December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since August. Small traders are holding a net short position for the first time since early December.
 

Interest rates - June T-bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 111-29. Further resistance is at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112-16 (as measured between the February high of 114-02 and the April low of 110-00). If the rally does not end here look for T-bonds to challenge the daily February high of 114-02. Further resistance is at the weekly December high of 114-29 followed by the weekly 2006 high of 115-13. Near term support is at the April low of 110-00. A break below last month's low could take the market to the weekly January low of 109-06 and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-00 (as measured between last year's weekly double bottom low of 105-11 and the weekly December high of 114-29). Failure to recover at this level could pull the rug out from under the market and send it all the way down to last year's weekly double bottom between the May low of 105-11 and the June low of 115-12. The June NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci. 382 retracement at 3-23 (premium bonds). Further resistance is at the daily February high of 4-17. After that the spread could challenge the daily spread high of 5-01 premium T-bonds or even last year's weekly spread high of 5-07 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the 2005 all-time closing high of 5-14 on the monthly continuous chart. Near term support is at the daily April low of 2-29 (premium T-bonds). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-12.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily contract low of 24/32nds premium T-bonds and the current spread high of 5-01 premium T-bonds). If the spread does not stabilize in this area it is quite possible that the spread will decline to the daily contract low of 24/32nds premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at a two month low. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in the first half of May and then trade higher for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are still holding a big net long position, but they dumped over a third of what they were holding the week prior. Large traders are still holding a sizable net short position. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in six weeks.
 

June T-Notes find near term resistance between last week's high of 108-14 and the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108-17 (as measured between the February high of 109-11.5 and the April low of 170-05.5). Further resistance is located between the daily March high of 109-11.5, a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109-11.5 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of 117-31 and last year's weekly low of 104-01), and the weekly December high of 109-18. After that T-notes could trade at the 2006 weekly high of 110-06.5, the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 114-16 and the 2006 weekly low of 104-01), or the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-17.5 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 121-03 and the 2006 weekly low of 104-01). If T-notes make it thru this barrier of price resistance it could indicate that the market is headed to the 2005 weekly high of 114-16 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-18.5 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 121-03 and the 2006 weekly low of 104-01). Technical support is at the daily April low of 107-05.5. A break below it could send the market to major technical support at the weekly January low of 106-06.5 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106-04.5 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 104-01 and the weekly December high of 109-18). If this support does not hold, the T-notes could plunge to last year's weekly low of 104-01. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-February. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to drop in the first week of May and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in nearly six months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since early October. Small traders are holding a small size net short position.

International Bonds - June Canadian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 113.22 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113.16 (as measured between the February high of 114.57 and the April low of 112.29). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.70 (as measured between the February high of 114.57 and the April low of 112.29). If the rally does not end here CGBs could hit the daily March high of 114.57 followed by the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.71 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and this year's current weekly low of 112.29). Near term support is at the April low of 112.29 in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.17 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 109.68 and the weekly December high of 116.20). If this support does not hold, the market could decline to last year's double bottom low between 109.72 in April and 109.68 in June.    June Euro Bunds find near term support at the new contract low of 113.36. If the market does not stabilize in this area it could plummet to the 2004 low of 111.81. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 114.20 (June Euro bunds have made lower weekly highs for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 115.37 (as measured between the contract high of 118.64 and the current contract low of 113.36) in confluence with the intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.38 (as measured between the daily March high of 116.63 and the current contract low of 113.36). Further resistance is at current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.62 (as measured between the contract high of 118.64 and the current contract low of 113.36) in confluence with the daily March high of 116.63.  June London Long Gilts find near term support at the contract low of 106.36. Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 105.95. After that gilts may lose another full point and sink to the weekly 2004 low of 104.86. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 107.26 (June gilts has made lower weekly highs for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market up to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108.54 (as measured between the daily March high of 109.88 and the current contract low of 106.36). Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109.82 (as measured between the weekly 2006 high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 105.65) in confluence with the daily March high of 109.88.   June Australian 10-year Bonds signaled a trend reversal last week when they broke out above a previous week's high for the first time in nearly two months and closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in over a month. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 94.165 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.165 (as measured between the daily March high of 94.41 and the current contract low of 94.01). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.26 (as measured between the daily March high of 94.41 and the current contract low of 94.01). If the rally does not end here Aussie bonds could run to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.40 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 94.01) in confluence with the daily March high of 94.41. Near term support is at the current contract low of 94.01. A break to new lows again could pile drive the Aussie bonds down to the 2002 low of 93.40. June JGB's  finds near term support at the April low of 133.40 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 133.40 (as measured between the February low of 132.41 and the daily March high of 135.00), the weekly January low of 133.30 or even the weekly October low of 133.18. After this support cluster the market finds technical support at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.69 (as measured between the 2006 weekly low of 130.71 and the weekly December high of 135.89). Failure to establish support here could result in a severe decline to last year's weekly low of 130.71 or even the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 high of 145.04). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 134.55. Further resistance is at the daily March high of 135.00. If the rally does not stop here look for JGBs to hit a wall of techncial resistance between the 2005 weekly low of 135.90 (old support), the daily December high of 136.00, or even the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 136.18 (as measured between the 2003 weekly all-time high of 145.04 and the 2006 weekly low of 130.71).
 

Currencies - The US Dollar Index finds near term support at last week's new two year low of 81.10. Further support is located between the 2004 low of 80.48 and the 1995 low of 80.14. If the buck doesn't stop here it could crater to the 1992 low of 78.43. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 81.75 (the June US dollar index has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since the beginning of February). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the greenback up to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 83.385 (as measured between the weekly October reaction high of 87.08 and this year's current weekly low of 81.10) in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 83.46 (as measured between the daily January high of 84.92 and the current contract low of 81.10). Further resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.795 (as measured between the weekly October reaction high of 87.08 and this year's current weekly low of 81.10) followed closely by the daily January high of 84.92. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move marginally higher in May. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are holding a small net short position.
 

The Canadian Dollar finds near term resistance at last week's new six month high of .8999. If the "looney" does not stop here it could challenge last year's high of .9152. If this high is exceeded the market could get catapulted to the psychological 95 cent mark. Near term support is at last week's low of .8905 (the Canadian dollar has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month straight). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8791 (as measured between the contract low of .8454 and last week's multi-month high of .8999). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8662 (as measured between the contract low of .8454 and last week's multi-month high of .8999). If the "looney" does not stabilize here it could visit the contract low of .8454. Open Interest dropped to the lowest level since mid-November. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should trade sideways for most of May with one good dip toward the end of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in nearly five months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since the beginning of November. Small traders are neutral on the "looney".
 

The Australian Dollar finds near term resistance at the new eighteen year high of .8378. Further resistance is at the weekly 1989 high of .8880. Near term support at last week's low of .8223 (the June Aussie dollar has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8101 (as measured between the daily March low of .7652 and the current contract high of .8378). Further support is at the weekly January high of .7964 (old resistance) followed closely by current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7929 (as measured between the daily March low of .7652 and the current contract high of .8378). If the Aussie does not stabilize here it could plunge to the daily March low of .7652. Open Interest is at a four month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie dollar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to decline in May. Commercials are holding a huge net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.
 

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term support at the daily April low of .0484 premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0454 premium Canadian dollar. If the spread sinks right below this retracement it could hit the weekly 2005 low of .0162. Near term resistance is at last week's multi-week high of .0686 premium Canadian dollar. Further resistance is at the daily March high of .0812. A breakout above it could send the spread up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .0926 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between the daily September high of .1641 and the daily April low of .0484 premium Canadian dollar). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1199 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between the daily September high of .1641 and the April low of .0484).
 

The British Pound finds near term resistance at the new twenty-six year high of 2.0128. Further resistance is at the psychological 2.10 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.9859 (the June British pound has only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.9765 (as measured between the daily March low of 1.9177 and the current contract high of 2.0128). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.9540 (as measured between the daily March low of 1.9177 and the current contract high of 2.0128) in confluence with the March 30th reaction low of 1.9538. If sterling does not stabilize here it could plunge to the daily March low of 1.9177. Open Interest is at a five month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is overbought on the monthly chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move slightly lower in May. Commercials are starting to increase the size of their net short position again. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a moderate size net long position. Small traders are holding a small net long position.
 

The June Swiss Franc finds near term resistance at last week's high of .8375 in confluence with the daily March high of .8377. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of .8428. A breakout above this high could send the June Swissie soaring to the contract high of .8547. Near term support is at last week's low of .8284 (the June Swiss franc has made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8171 (as measured between the contract low of .8044 and the daily March high of .8377) in confluence with the daily March low of .8162. If the does not stabilize here it could hit contract low of .8044 or this year's current weekly low of .7979. Open Interest is at the lowest level since December. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually declines in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since mid-December. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are holding their largest net long position since mid-December.
 

The Euro Currency finds near term resistance at last week's new all-time high of 1.3715. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.40 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.3570 (the June Euro has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day since early February). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3422 (as measured between the daily January low of 1.2948 and the current all-time high of 1.3715). Further support is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3261 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3715) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3241 (as measured between the daily January low of 1.2948 and the current all-time high of 1.3715). If the Euro does not stabilize here it could plunge to further technical support clustered between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2980 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3715), the daily January low of 1.2948, and a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2930 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.1661 and the current all-time high of 1.3715). Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-February. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Euro should trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding a record size net short position. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in two months.
 

The June Euro currency/Swiss franc spread finds near term resistance at the new all-time high of .5348. Further resistance is at the psychological 55-cent mark. If the spread does not stop there it could even run to 60 cents. Near term support is located between the weekly 18-bar Moving Average just below 51 cents (this spread has not closed below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average since December of 2005) and the daily April closing low of .5120 (the June Euro-Swiss spread has only broken a previous month's low on the daily chart once since September). Further support is at the weekly February correction low of .4971 (the June Euro-Swiss spread has only broken a previous weekly correction low by more than two ticks on two different occasions since the bottom was established in November 2005). A close below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average and a break below a previous correction low on the weekly chart could indicate that the trend has changed. This would be a good entry signal for the short side of this spread. A sizable correction could take spread back down to the weekly 2004 and 2005 highs of .4762 and .4761 (old resistance levels). Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .4565 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and this year's current weekly high of .5348).
 

The Japanese Yen finds near term support resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008554 (as measured between the daily March high of .008799 and the daily April low of .008402) in confluence with the April 19th reaction high of .008567. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008647 (as measured between the daily March high of .008799 and the daily April low of .008402). If the market can get past this price level look for a run to the daily March high of .008799 or even the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008854 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of .009864 and this year's current weekly low of .008229). If the yen does not back down from this price barrier, look for a run to last year's weekly high of .009217 followed closely by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009239 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of .009864 and this year's current weekly low of .008229). Near term support is at the daily April low of .008410 in confluence with the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008409 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .008229 and the weekly March high of .008701). Further support is at this year's current weekly low of .008229. If this low is taken out the yen could hit the psychological .008000 mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since last July. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move lower in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in four months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since early December. Small traders are still neutral on the yen.
 

Metals - June Gold finds near term resistance the daily April high of $698.00 (all-sessions) in confluence with the daily February high of $699.00 (all-sessions). Further resistance is located at the 2006 multi-decade high of $732.00. If last year's high is exceeded expect gold to challenge the psychological $800.00 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $673.80 (June gold has only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks). If the market breaks last week's low look for a decline to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $662.80 (as measured between the daily March low of $641.10 and the daily April high of $698.00). Further support is at the daily March low of $641.10 (all-sessions). If this low is broken look for gold to challenge the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $625.50 (as measured between the contract low of $580.00 and the daily February high of $699.00) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $627.00 (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month since August of 2001). If gold does not stabilize in this area it could plummet to the contract low of $575.00. Open Interest is almost at a two month low. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways thru most of May and decline at the end of the month. Commercials are holding a sizable net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a large net long position. Small traders are holding their largest net long position since April of 2004.
 

July Silver finds near term support at last week's low of $13.30 (all-sessions) in confluence with an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $13.26 (as measured between the daily October low of $10.96 and the April high of $14.30) and followed closely by the daily April low of $13.175. Further support is at a major daily Fibonacci. 618 retracement at $12.43 (as measured between the contract low of $10.85 and the contract high of $1498) or even the daily January low of $12.325 (all-sessions) in confluence with the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $12.28 (silver has only closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average one time since July of 2003). If July silver slips below this price level it could decline to an intermediate weekly Fibonacci. 618 retracement at $11.47 (as measured between the June 2006 weekly correction low of $9.45 and this year's current weekly high of $14.745). Near term resistance is at the April high of $14.30. Further resistance is at the contract high of $14.98. A strong close above fifteen bucks could send silver soaring to the psychological twenty dollar mark. Open Interest is sitting flat at a two month low. Seasonally, silver should move sideways in the first half of May and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since mid-January. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since the beginning of November. Small traders are neutral on silver.
 

July Copper may have signaled a trend change last week when it broke below a previous week's low for the first time in nearly two months and it closed below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-February. A trade below last week's low of 345.60 could cause a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 320.15 (as measured between the contract low of 240.00 and the current contract high of 369.70). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 289.55 (as measured between the contract low of 240.00 and the current contract high of 369.70). If July copper does not stabilize here it could be headed back to the contract low of 240.00. Near term resistance is at the current contract high of 369.70. Further resistance is at the psychological four dollar mark. If copper does not stop there it could be teat last year's high of 416.00 (all-sessions) on the weekly continuous chart. Open Interest is at a five month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the daily chart. Copper has a seasonal tendency to establish a major seasonal high in early May and then decline sharply for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since the beginning of November. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short copper position since then. Small traders are neutral on copper.
 

Energies - June Crude Oil finds near term support at the daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $62.83 (as measured between the contract low of $52.59 and the daily March spike high of $69.10) and the daily April low of $62.63 (all-sessions). Further support is at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $58.96 (as measured between the contract low of $52.59 and the daily March spike high of $69.10). If this support level is broken the market could decline to the weekly March low of $56.10 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is found at the April 17th reaction high of $67.05 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily March spike high of $69.10. A strong breakout above this high could run the market back up toward the weekly 2005 high of $70.85 (all-sessions) to form a potential head and shoulders top. Open Interest is sitting flat near an all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move slightly higher for the first half of May and then sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding their biggest net short position in nearly seven months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since early September. Small traders are neutral.

June RBOB finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of 226.50 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at last year's high of 250.50. A breakout above last year's high could cause a spike to the 2005 all-time high of 292.00. Near term support is at last week's low of 210.25 (June gasoline has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for over three months). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 200.33 (as measured between the contract low of 158.00 and the current contract high of 226.50) followed by the daily April low of 197.26. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 184.17 (as measured between the contract low of 158.00 and the current contract high of 226.50) followed by the daily March low of 182.40. If June gasoline does not stabilize here it could plummet to the contract low of 158.00. Open Interest is sitting flat near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that RBOB gas is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, gasoline should trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are net short for the first time in three months. Large traders are net long for the first time since the beginning of December. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since Christmas.
 

June Natural Gas finds near term resistance at the daily April high of 8.140 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily November high of 8.360. If this high is exceeded June natural gas could challenge the November spike high of 9.050 on the weekly continuous chart. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.139 (as measured between the contract low of 6.521 and the daily April high of 8.140) followed closely by the daily March low of 7.089. Further support is at the contract low of 6.521. A break to new lows could send the market to the weekly December low of 5.740. If natural gas fails to stabilize here look for a decline to the psychological 5.000 mark. Open Interest at the lowest level in eleven months. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short nat gas position in over a year. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since April 2006. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas.
 

Meats - June Live Cattle finds near term support at the daily April low of 91.95. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 90.20 (as measured between the daily October low of 84.25 and the contract high of 99.82) in confluence with the daily December and January highs of 89.97 and 90.10 (old resistance levels). If June cattle does not stabilize in this area it could collapse to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.70 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 73.45 and this year's current weekly high of 102.92) followed closely by the daily October low of 84.25. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.97 (as measured between the contract high of 99.82 and the daily April low of 91.95). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 96.82 (as measured between the contract high of 99.82 and the daily April low of 91.95) followed closely by the April 5th reaction high of 97.25. If June cattle can take out last month's high it should challenge the contract high of 99.82. A breakout to a new contract high could launch June live cattle up to this year's current weekly high of 102.92 or even the all-time weekly high of 103.60. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should trade sideways in the first half of May and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are quickly reducing the size of their big net short position. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since Christmas. Small traders are still holding the smallest net short position in four months.
 

August Feeders finds near term resistance at the contract high of 114.00. If feeders breakout to new contract highs again they could keep running toward last year's weekly high of 119.35 or the weekly 2005 high of 119.75. Near term support is at the daily April low 109.25. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 106.97 (as measured between the contract low of 95.60 and the current contract high of 114.00). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102.62 (as measured between the contract low of 95.60 and the current contract high of 114.00). Open Interest is at the lowest level since early February. Seasonally, feeders should trade slightly higher in May. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since early October. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since mid-September. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position in two and a half months.
 

June Lean Hogs find near term support at last week's low of 74.20. Further support is at the March 30th reaction low of 72.55. A break below it could cause the market to tag the daily January low of 70.90 in confluence with a major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 70.82 (as measured between the daily September low of 65.72 and the contract high of 79.05). If June hogs don't stabilize here they could crater to the daily September low of 65.72. Near term resistance is at the daily April high of 78.12. Further resistance is at the contract high of 79.05. A breakout to new highs could allow June hogs to go right up to the weekly 2004 high of 82.70. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are oversold on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to rally for the first half of May and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials covered some of their huge net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in two months. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since May 2004.
 

Grains - July Soybeans find near term support at last week's three month low of $7.24 1/2. A further decline could take the market down to the psychological seven dollar mark. If the market does not stabilize here look for it to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.73 3/4 (as measured between the contract low of $5.82 1/4 and the contract high of $8.22). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $7.49 3/4 (July soybeans have made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for three months straight). Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.84 3/4 (as measured between the contract high of $8.22 and the April low of $7.24 1/2). Further resistance is at the contract high of $8.22 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs should allow beans to challenge the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.48 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of $10.64 and the weekly 2005 low of $4.984). After that beans could trade at the psychological nine dollar mark. Open Interest is near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are near overbought on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since February 2004. Large traders are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since September 2005.
 

July Soy Meal tested the major daily Fibonacci .618 support level last week. A break below last week's four month low $196.10 could pressure the market down to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $185.90 (as measured between last year's weekly low of $155.80 and this year's current weekly high of $234.60) in confluence with this year's current weekly low of $184.70 (all-sessions). If meal does not stabilize in this area it May plunge to last year's weekly low of $155.80. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $202.70 (July meal has only traded above a previous week's high once in the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since early March). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average look for a rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $214.90 (as measured between the contract high of $245.20 and last week's low $196.10). Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $226.40 (as measured between the contract high of $245.20 and last week's low $196.10). If July soymeal does not stop here it could easily challenge the contract high of $245.20 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a two and a half month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that meal is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, soy meal should rally in May. Commercials covered some of their record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) sold a portion of their record size net long position. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since May 2004.
 

July Bean Oil finds near term resistance at the new contract high of 33.88 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the 2004 high of 35.18 (all-sessions). After that bean oil could race on up to the 1984 high of 41.15. Near term support is at the daily April low of 31.57. Further support is at the daily March low of 30.15. A break below last this price level could cause a decline to further technical support clustered between the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 28.43 (as measured between the daily October low of 25.06 and the new contract high of 33.88), a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 27.78 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 18.82 and this year's current weekly high of 33.32), and this year's current weekly low of 27.58 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding their biggest net short position since February 2004. Large traders are holding their biggest net long position since July of last year. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

July Corn finds near term support at the daily April low of $3.55 (all-sessions). Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.41 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of $1.85 3/4 and this year's current weekly high of $4.37 1/4) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.39 3/4 (as measured between the contract low of $2.65 3/4 and the contract high of $4.59 3/4). If corn does not stabilize in this area it may trade down to the psychological three dollar area. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.95 (as measured between the contract high of $4.59 3/4 and the daily April low of $3.55) followed closely by the daily April high of $3.97. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.19 3/4 (as measured between the contract high of $4.59 3/4 and the daily April low of $3.55). If the rally does not end here corn could pop up to the contract high of $4.59 3/4 (all-sessions). A breakout to new highs could pop corn up to the psychological five dollar level. Open Interest is at the lowest level in three months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that corn should move sideways in May. Commercial interests covered a small amount of their record net short position. Large traders sold just a fraction of their record net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since January 2006.
 

July Rice finds near term support at the daily March low of 10.050. Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 9.715. A break below it could pressure the market down to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 9.300 (rice has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since October of 2005) followed closely by an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.245 (as measured between the weekly August reaction low of 8.460 and this year's current weekly high of 10.520). If rice does not stabilize here it could drop to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 8.835 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 6.110 and this year's current weekly high of 10.520). Near term resistance is the daily April high of 10.660 (all-sessions) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.710 (as measured between the contract high of 11.120 and the daily March low of 10.050). Further resistance is at the contract high of 11.120 (all-sessions) followed by the weekly 2004 high of 11.320 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level in nearly three months. Seasonally, rice should just trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since Christmas. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a historically large net long position.

July Oats find near term support at the April low of $2.56 (all-sessions). Further support is at the daily March low of $2.47 (all-sessions). If this low is breached look for a decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.32 1/2 (as measured between the weekly 2003 low of $1.20 1/2 and this year's current weekly high of $3.02) in confluence with the weekly July 200 spike high of $2.32 1/2 (old resistance). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $2.72 (July oats has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for the last month. If the market breaks a previous week's high and closes above the 18-day Moving Average it could reverse the trend and run back up to the daily contract high of $2.99 3/4 (all-sessions) in confluence with this year's current weekly high of $3.02 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological $3.50 mark. If oats don't stop here they could test the 1988 all-time high of $3.93. Open Interest is at the highest level since December of 1993. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move higher in the first half of May and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a new record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since July. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in nearly two years.
 

July Wheat finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $5.33 3/4 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the 2006 weekly high of $5.56 (all-sessions). After that wheat could easily tag the psychological six dollar mark. Near term support is located at last week's low of $4.93 (July wheat has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for three consecutive weeks) in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $4.92 1/2 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.26 and last week's new contract high of $5.33 3/4). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.67 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.26 and last week's new contract high of $5.33 3/4). If July wheat breaks below this retracement it could be doomed to visit the daily April low of $4.26 (all-sessions) followed by the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $4.23. Open Interest is sitting flat at the lowest level since May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is nearing oversold levels on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should move sideways in the first half of May and then drop in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long wheat position in six months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since September. Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position.
 

Softs - July Coffee finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of 105.90 on the daily chart. Further support is at the weekly April low of 104.25. If coffee does not stabilize here it could spill to the weekly 2006 low of 93.50. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 111.50 (July coffee has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks). Further resistance is at the March 26th reaction high of 117.60 followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 117.30 (as measured between the contract high of 135.80 and the current contract low of 105.90). If July coffee can conquer this price barrier it could trade at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 124.40 (as measured between the contract high of 135.80 and the current contract low of 105.90) followed closely by the daily February high of 125.40. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should rally and establish a major seasonal high at the end of May. Commercials are holding the smallest net short coffee position since October. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are still neutral on the coffee market.

July Cocoa finds near term resistance at the contract high of $2,014. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2,180 (as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 low of $1,299). If the rally does not end here cocoa may keep running toward the 2003 multi-decade high of $2,420. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,810 (as measured between the contract low at $1,481 and the contract high of $2,014) in confluence with last week's low of $1,808. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,685 (as measured between the contract low at $1,481 and the contract high of $2,014). If cocoa does not establish support here it could plummet to the daily January low of $1,625. Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to move lower in the first half of May and then stage a small rally in the latter part of the month. Commercials increased the size of their record net short position. Large traders are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders remain neutral on cocoa.
 

July Sugar finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 9.12. If this low gets taken out, sugar could hit the psychological eight cent mark fairly quick. After that sugar could tag the 2005 low of 7.50. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 9.42 (July sugar has made lower weekly highs for six out of the last eight weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average it has closed below every day since early March. If the market can muster a strong close above a previous week's high and a good close above the 18-day Moving Average it could challenge the April high of 10.01 (July sugar has only broken a previous month's high once in the last nine months). A breakout above last month's high could keep the momentum going and take July sugar up to the March 2nd island reversal high of 11.24. Further resistance is at the November high of 12.35. Open Interest is sitting flat just below the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move slightly higher in May. Commercials are holding a small net short position in sugar. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a small net long position. Small traders are neutral.
 

July Orange Juice plunged to a multi-week low of 146.00. A break below this level could take the market down to the 1998 monthly high of 131.95 (old resistance). Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.50 (as measured between the 2004 all-time low of 54.20 and this year's current multi-decade high of 209.50). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 159.75 (July OJ has made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average it has closed below for well over a month. If July OJ can breakout above a previous week's high and close above the 18-day Moving Average it could turn around and head back up toward the daily January low of 180.00 (old support) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 181.40 (as measured between the contract high of 203.30 and the current contract low of 146.00). If the rally does not end here July orange juice could trade at the psychological two dollar level again. Open Interest is at the highest level since October. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, OJ should trade in a choppy range in May. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in six months. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since May. Small traders are neutral.
 

July Cotton finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 48.70. Further support is at the weekly November low of 46.50. If cotton does not stabilize here it could decline to the 2006 weekly low of 45 cents. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 51.92 (July cotton has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks), the 18-day Moving Average is has closed below for the last month, and the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 52.25 (as measured between the daily December high of 58 cents and the current contract low of 48.70) in confluence with the daily February low of 52.25 (old support). If July cotton can breakout above a previous week's high and close above the 18-day Moving Average it could turn around and head back up toward the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 54.45 (as measured between the daily December high of 58 cents and the current contract low of 48.70) followed by the daily March high of 55.45. If the rally does not end here July cotton could make it's way back up to the daily December high of 58 cents. If this barrier is conquered look for the market to test the weekly 2005 high of 60.50. Open Interest reached a new record high. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to rally in the first part of May and decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in nearly three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short position since late January. Small traders are holding the largest net long position in several years.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2007 Pearce Financial, LLC
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