Technical resistance is at last week's new multi-year high of 1504.80 (all-sessions). Further resistance is not currently found until the all-time high of 1574.00. A breakout to new all-time highs should take the market up to the psychological 1600 mark. Near term support is located at last week's low of 1480.50 (the June S&P 500 has made higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for a over a month. If the market breaks below a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could sell off to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1455.50 (as measured between the daily March low of 1375.90 and the current contract high of 1504.80). Further support is at current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1425.20 (as measured between the daily March low of 1375.90 and the current contract high of 1504.80). If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to the daily March low of 1375.90, the weekly March low of 1364.00, or even monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1359.00 (the S&P 500 has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since May of 2003). If these lows are broken the market could test a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1334.90 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 1060.20 and this year's current weekly high of 1504.80) in confluence with the weekly May 2006 high of 1331.20 (old resistance). Open Interest is at a five month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the S&P 500 is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, the S&P 500 should move sideways in May. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since November 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position in four and a half months. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in several years.

The September NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at current contract highof 1974.50 (all-sessions). If the September NASDAQ 100 hits a new contract high look for it to trade at the psychological 2000 mark. Further resistance is at the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2081.50. If the September NASDAQ 100 does not slow down here look for it to soar to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2357.50 (as measured between the 2000 all-time high of 4882.00 and the 2002 low of 797.00). Near term support is located at the daily June low of 1900.00 (the NASDAQ 100 has made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for three consecutive months) followed by a minor weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1871.40 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 1704.75 and this year's current weekly high of 1974.50) in confluence with the weekly January high of 1868.00 (old resistance). Further support is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1717.60 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 1302.00 and this year's current weekly high of 1974.50) followed closely by the weekly March low of 1704.75. Open Interest is at the lowest level in two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The NASDAQ 100 should trade establish a high in mid-July and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding a moderate size net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net short position in eleven months. Small traders are holding a small net long position. 

Interest rates - September T-bonds signaled a trend change when they rallied to a three week high and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since early May. A rally above last week's high of 107-28 could confirm it. If this occurs look for T-bonds to make a dash for the weekly January low of 109-06 (old support) in confluence with an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-11 (as measured between the daily May high of 112-11 and the current contract low of 104-16). Further resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111-04 (as measured between the weekly December high of 114-29 and this year's current weekly low of 104-31). 

Near term support is at the contract low of 104-16. Further support is at the monthly 2004 low of 103-02. Failure to hold here could hammer the bonds down to the psychological 100 area. The September NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term support at the daily June low of 1-05 (premium T-bonds). Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1-02.5 (as measured between the weekly 2003 low of 5-20 premium T-notes and the weekly 2006 high of 5-07 premium T-bonds) in confluence with the weekly 2006 low of 27/32nds premium T-bonds. If this support level is violated the spread could plunge to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-15.5 premium T-notes (as measured between the weekly 2003 low of 5-20 premium T-notes and the weekly 2006 high of 5-07 premium T-bonds). 

Near term resistance is at the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-May). If the spread closes above the 18-day Moving Average for the firs time since early May and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the NOB spread on up to the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2-20.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily contract high of 5-01 and the current contract low of 1-05) in confluence with the intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-22.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily May high of 3-20.5 and the current contract low of 1-05). Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-18 premium T-bonds (as measured between the daily contract high of 5-01 and the current contract low of 1-05) in confluence with the daily May high of 3-20.5. Near term support is at the weekly June low of 104-31. A break below last month's low could take the market to the monthly 2004 low of 103-02 followed closely by an intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102-16 (as measured between the monthly 2000 low of 89-01 and the 2003 all-time high of 124-10). Failure to recover at this level could send bonds plunging to the psychological 100 area. Open Interest is not too far off the all-time high reached in May.  

The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are near oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to trade lower in July. Commercial interests are still holding one of their biggest net long positions since last summer. Large traders are still holding one of their biggest net short positions since May of last year. Small traders are holding a sizable net short position.

September T-Notes September Ten- year notes signaled a trend change when they broke a two week high and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since early May. A rally above last week's high of 105-25.5 could allow notes to tag the weekly January low of 106-06.5 (old support) in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 106-06.5 (as measured between the weekly December high of 109-18 and the weekly June low of 104-04). Further resistance is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107-15.5 (as measured between the weekly December high of 109-18 and the weekly June low of 104-04). If T-notes make it past this level they could gain another point and challenge the daily May high of 108-16. Near term support is at an intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104-05.5 (as measured between the monthly 2000 low of 93-23 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-03) in confluence with the double bottom between the weekly June low of 104-04 and the weekly 2006 low of 104-01. Further support is at the daily June low of 103-20.5. If September T-notes break to new contract lows it could plummet to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 100-27 (as measured between the monthly 1994 low of 88-10.5 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-03). Open Interest is near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are near oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher thru most of July. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a very big net long position. Small traders are holding their biggest net short position since May of last year.

International Bonds - September Canadian 10-year Bonds signaled a trend change when they broke a two week high and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since early May.  A rally above last week's high of 110.86 could allow the market to hit an intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.65 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and this year's current weekly low of 108.83).  Further resistance is at an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.38 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and this year's current weekly low of 108.83).  Near term support is at the contract low of 109.10.  A break to new contract lows could pull the September CGBs down to the 2004 weekly low of 106.12.  Further support is at an intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 103.83 (as measured between the monthly 2000 low of 95.20 and the monthly 2005 low of 117.78).

September Euro Bunds signaled a trend change when they broke a previous week's high for the first time in two months and closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since the end of April.  

A rally above last week's high of 111.18 should add on another point and take bunds to an intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.33 (as measured between the daily March high of 116.65 and the current contract low of 109.66).  Further resistance is at an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.98 (as measured between the daily March high of 116.65 and the current contract low of 109.66) in confluence with the daily May high of 114.16.  Near term support is at the contract low of 109.66.  A break to new contract lows could send September Euro bunds spiraling down to the psychological 105.00 area.  September London Long Gilts find near term support at the contract low of 103.27.  Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 102.58 (as measured between the monthly 1990 low of 66.69 and the monthly 2003 all-time high of 124.77).  If gilts do not stabilize here they could quickly hit the psychological 100 mark.  Near term resistance is at last week's high of 104.31 (September gilts have only broken a previous week's high once in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last three months).  If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send gilts up to the weekly January low of 105.95 (old support).  Further resistance is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 108.21 (as measured between the weekly 2006 high of 116.08 and this year's current weekly low of 103.35) in confluence with this year's current weekly high of 108.19.  September Australian 10-year Bonds 10-year bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 93.83 (September Aussie bonds have made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-May).  If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send Aussie bonds running to an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.01 (as measured between the weekly September high of 94.565 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665) in confluence with the weekly January low of 94.03 (old support) and last year's weekly low of 94.045 (old support).  If the rally does not end here the market could be on the way to a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.185 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665) in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.22 (as measured between the weekly September high of 94.565 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665).  Near term support is at the current contract low of 93.665.  A break to new lows should keep Aussie bonds moving toward the 2002 low of 93.40. September JGB's  signaled a trend change when they broke a two week high and the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since early May.  A rally above last week's high of 132.19 could take the market up to the weekly January low of 133.30 (old support).  Further resistance is at the an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 133.93 (as measured between the weekly December high of 135.89 and this year's current weekly low of 130.76).  If JGBs make it past this level they could challenge this year's current weekly high of 135.50 or even the weekly December high of 135.89.  Near term support is at the current contract low of 130.76 in confluence with last year's weekly low of 130.71.  This is closely followed by the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 high of 145.04).  If this level doesn't hold, JGBs could test the June 1999 correction low of 128.00. 

Currencies - The US Dollar Index finds near term support at this year's current weekly low of 81.10.  Further support is located between the 2004 low of 80.48 and the 1995 low of 80.14.  If the buck doesn't stop here it could crater to the 1992 low of 78.43.  Near term resistance is at the weekly June high of 83.26 followed closely by the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 83.385 (as measured between the weekly October reaction high of 87.08 and this year's current weekly low of 81.10).  Further resistance is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.795 (as measured between the weekly October reaction high of 87.08 and this year's current weekly low of 81.10).  After that the greenback could test this year's current weekly high of 85.25.  Open Interest is at the lowest level in nearly five months.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is oversold on the monthly chart.  The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should decline in July.  Commercial interests are holding a small net long position.  Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since February.  Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since October. 

The Canadian Dollar finds near term resistance at last week's high of .9570.  Further resistance is at the psychological parity level.  Near term support at the monthly June low of .9305.  A trade below it would mark the first time since February that a previous month's low was broken and pressure it to retrace to the weekly 2006 high of .9152 (old resistance). Further support is at the current minor weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .9133 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .8427 and this year's current weekly high of .9570).  After that the "looney" could decline to the current minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8864 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .8427 and this year's current weekly high of .9570).  Open Interest dropped to the lowest level since early May.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Canadian dollar is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts.  Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should decline sharply thru most of July.  Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since March of 2003.  Large traders are holding a record size net long position.  Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position. 

The Australian Dollar finds near term resistance at last week's new multi-year high of .8504.  Further resistance is at the weekly 1989 high of .8880.  After that the Aussie could challenge the psychological 90 cent mark.  Near term support at last week's low of .8336 (the September Aussie dollar has made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above almost every day for over a month.  If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a decline to the daily May low of .8140. A break below it could cause the market to tumble to the weekly 2005 high of .7992 (old resistance) or even the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7932 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of .7006 and the current contract high of .8504).  Open Interest is flat.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie dollar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.  Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move sideways in July.  Commercials are holding a huge net short position.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position.  Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas. 

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar finds near term support at the daily June low of .0864 premium Canadian dollar.  Further support is at the daily May low of .0734 premium Canadian dollar.  If these lows are broken the spread may decline to the contract low of .0531 premium Canadian dollar.  Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0454 premium Canadian dollar.  Near term resistance is at the daily May high of .1183 premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .1186 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between the 2006 all-time weekly high of .1612 and this year's current weekly low of .0497 premium Canadian dollar).  If the spread can clear this price barrier it could run to the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .1373 premium Canadian dollar (as measured between the 2006 all-time weekly high of .1612 and this year's current weekly low of .0497 premium Canadian dollar).  

The British Pound finds near term resistance the weekly April high of 2.0128.  Further resistance is at the psychological 2.10 area.  Near term support is at the daily June low of 1.9605.  A clean break below last
month's low could cause a severe decline to this year's current weekly low of 1.9183.  Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.8951 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 2.0128).  Open Interest is flat.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.  The pound has a seasonal tendency to rally in the first half of July and then decline in the second half of the month.  Commercials are holding a near record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are neutral on Sterling. 

The Swiss Franc finds near term resistance at last week's high of .8239.  Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8285 (as measured between the daily April high of .8418 and the contract low of .8071) followed closely by the daily April high of .8297.  A breakout above this high could send the September Swissie soaring to the daily April high of .8418 followed closely by last year's weekly high of .8428.  Near term support is at the contract low of .8071.  Further support is at this year's current weekly low of .7979.  If the Swissie hits a new low for the year on the weekly chart it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7884 (as measured between the weekly 2005 double bottom low of .7548 and last year's weekly high of .8428) in confluence with the weekly October low of .7879.  Open Interest is at a moderate level.  The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually trades sideways in July.  Commercial interests are holding a record size net long position.  Large traders covered just a fraction of their record size
net short position.  Small traders are holding their largest net short position in many years. 

The Euro Currency finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1.3577 in confluence with the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3580 (as measured between the contract high of 1.3749 and the daily June low of 1.3306).  After this barrier the September Euro could challenge the contract high of 1.3749.  Further resistance is at the psychological 1.40 mark.  Near term support is at the daily June low of 1.3306.  This is closely followed by the weekly June low of 1.3266 in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3261 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3715).  Further support is clustered between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.2980 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3715), and a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2930 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.1661 and the current all-time high of 1.3715), and this year's current weekly low of 1.2901.  Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-February.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is still overbought on the monthly chart.  Seasonally, the Euro should trade sideways in July.  Commercial interests are holding their smallest net short position since February.  Large traders are holding their smallest net long
position in months.  Small traders are neutral right now. 

The September Euro currency/Swiss franc spread finds near term resistance at the current all-time high of .5354 (premium Euro).  Further resistance is at the psychological 55-cent mark.  If the spread does not stop there it could even run to 60 cents.  Near term support is clustered between the weekly 18-bar Moving Average around .5250 (this spread has not closed below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average since December of 2005), the daily June closing low of .5248 (the September Euro-Swiss spread has only broken a previous month's low on the daily chart once since September), and the daily May closing low of .5245.  Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .5056 (as measured between the daily March low of .4871 and the current all-time high of .5354) and the weekly February high of .5053 (old resistance).  If the spread does not establish support at this level it could decline to the daily March low of .4871 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .4869 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and the current all-time weekly high of .5356). 

The Japanese Yen finds near term support at the current contractlow of .008142.  A break to new lows should pressure the market down to the psychological .008000 mark.  If the decline does not end here the yen may test the psychological .007500 area.  Near term resistance is at last week's high of .008269 (the September yen has made lower weekly highs for eight out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over three months).  If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the yen to take on the daily June high of .008385.  After that the yen could challenge a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008499 (as measured between the weekly December high of .008754 and this year's current weekly low of .008087) followed closely by an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008519 (as measured between last year's weekly high of .009217 and this year's current weekly low of .008087).    Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of .008701.  Open Interest is coming down slightly from an all-time high.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is still near oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.  The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways to lower in July. Commercial interests are holding a new record size net long position.  Large traders are holding a new record size net short position.  Small traders remain neutral on the yen. 

Metals - Gold August gold finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of $641.10 in confluence with the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $640.50 (as measured between the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00 and this year's current weekly high of $693.30) and the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $638.00 (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month since August of 2001).  Further support is located at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $607.80 (as measured between the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00 and this year's current weekly high of $693.30) followed by this year's current weekly low of $603.00.  If gold does not stabilize here in this are it could collapse to the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00.  Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $665.90 (as measured between the contract high of $706.00 and last week's multi-month low of $641.10).  Further resistance is at the daily June high of $679.50 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $681.20 (as measured between the contract high of $706.00 and last week's multi-month low of $641.10).  If the rally does not end here gold could run up to the contract high of $706.00.  Open Interest is still quite high.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is oversold on the daily chart.  The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways thru July. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since the beginning of the year.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their smallest net long position since mid-January.  Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since October. 

Silver is at an important crossroads in the market right now. This market made an outside reversal down on the monthly chart and it is trading below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average that it has only closed below one time since July of 2003.  Near term support is at last week's low of $12.245 (all-sessions) followed by this year's current weekly low of $12.095 (all-sessions).  Further support is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci. 618 retracement at $11.47 (as measured between the June 2006 weekly correction low of $9.45 and this year's current weekly high of $14.745).  If silver does not establish support in this area it could plunge to the psychological ten dollar area.  Near term resistance is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $13.32 (as measured between the daily June high of $13.99 and last week's low of $12.245) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $13.22 (as measured between the daily contract high of $14.98 and last week's low of $12.135).  Further resistance is at the daily June high of $13.87 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $14.01 (as measured between the daily contract high of $15.095 and last week's low of $12.245) in confluence with the daily June high of $13.99.  After that September silver may challenge the contract high of $15.095 (all-sessions). A strong close above fifteen bucks could send silver soaring to the psychological twenty dollar mark.  Open Interest recently hit a four month high.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is oversold on the daily and weekly charts.  Seasonally, silver should move sideways in July.  Commercials are holding a moderate size net short position.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a moderate size net long position.  Small traders are neutral on silver. 

Copper finds near term resistance at the daily June high of 351.70 (all-sessions).  A strong close above it could drive copper toward the contract high of 377.90.  A breakout to new highs may send the market soaring toward the psychological four dollar mark.  If copper does not stop there it could test last year's high of 416.00 (all-sessions) on the weekly continuous chart.  Near term support is at the daily May low of 316.15 (all-sessions).  If this low is broken September copper could hit the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 291.90 (as measured between the contract low of 238.75 and the contract high of 377.90).  If the market does not stabilize here it could be headed back to the contract low of 238.75.  Open Interest is near a multi-month high.  Copper has a seasonal tendency to rally in July.  Commercials are holding a nominal net long position.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short copper position since last Autumn.  Small traders are neutral on copper.

Energies - Crude Oil finds near term resistance at last week's new high for the year at $71.06 (all-sessions).  Further resistance is at the psychological seventy-five dollar mark.  If it does not back down here crude oil has the potential to test last year's all-time high of $78.40 (all-sessions) or even the psychological eighty dollar mark.  Near term support is at a minor daily Fibonacci .618  retracement at $66.39 (as measured between the daily May correction low of $63.50 and the daily June high of $71.06).  Further support is at the daily May correction low of $63.50 (all-sessions) followed by the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $62.98 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of $49.90 and this year's current weekly high of $71.06).  If the market does not recover at this level it could plummet to the current major daily Fibonacci .618  retracement at $60.18 (as measured between the contract low of $53.61 and the daily March high of $71.06).  Open Interest is sitting at an all-time high.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the weekly chart.  The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move sideways to slightly higher in July.  Commercial interests are holding a huge net short position.  Large traders are holding a very large
net long position.  Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since February 2006.

RBOB finds near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of 226.50 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at last year's high of 250.50. A breakout above last year's high could cause a spike to the 2005 all-time high of 292.00. Near term support is at last week's low of 210.25 (June gasoline has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for over three months). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average look for a drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 200.33 (as measured between the contract low of 158.00 and the current contract high of 226.50) followed by the daily April low of 197.26. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 184.17 (as measured between the contract low of 158.00 and the current contract high of 226.50) followed by the daily March low of 182.40. If June gasoline does not stabilize here it could plummet to the contract low of 158.00. Open Interest is sitting flat near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that RBOB gas is overbought on the daily chart. Seasonally, gasoline should trade sideways in May. Commercial interests are net short for the first time in three months. Large traders are net long for the first time since the beginning of December. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since Christmas. 

Natural Gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in July. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since November of 2005.  Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since March 2006.  Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

Meats - Live Cattle finds near term support at the daily June low of 88.25.  Further support is at this year's current low on the daily chart at 86.80.  If this low is broken cattle could decline to further technical support clustered between this year's current weekly low of 85.10, the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.70 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 73.45 and this year's current weekly high of 102.92), and the weekly November low of 84.42.  Near term resistance is at the June 9th reaction high of 91.37.  Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 93.10 (as measured between the contract high
of 96.07 and last week's multi-month low of 88.25).  If the rally does not end in this area August live cattle could be on the way to the contract high of 96.07.  Open Interest reached a new low for the year.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that live cattle is oversold on the daily and weekly charts.  The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally in July.  Commercial interests are holding their largest net long position
in over a year.  Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since May 2006.  Small traders are holding a small net short position. 

Feeders finds near term support at the daily June low 105.50. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 102.77 (as measured between the contract low of 95.60 and the current contract high of 114.40).  If feeders do not recover from this level they could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 99.87 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 92.10 and this year's current weekly high of 112.50).  Near term resistance is at last week's high of 111.90.  After that the market could hit the contract high of 114.40.  If August feeders breakout to new contract highs again they could keep running toward last year's weekly high of 119.35 or the weekly 2005 high of 119.75.  Open Interest is at multi-month lows.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the weekly and monthly charts.  Seasonally, feeders should trade higher for the first half of July and then move sideways for the remainder of the month.  Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since February.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then.  Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since January. 

Lean Hogs find near term support at last week's multi-month low of 70.55.  Further support is at this year's current daily low of 68.20 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 68.00 (as measured between the daily September low of 61.50 and the contract high of 78.50).  If the market does not end the decline here it may be headed to the weekly March low of 62.95 followed closely by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 62.60 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 53.55 and the weekly 2006 high of 77.25).  Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 75.47 (as measured between the contract high of 78.50 and the daily June low of 70.55) followed by the daily June high of 76.00.  Further resistance is at the contract high of 78.50.  A breakout to new highs could allow hogs to run to the weekly 2004 high of 82.70.  Open Interest is at the lowest level since early January.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are oversold on the daily chart.  Hogs have a seasonal tendency to trade slightly lower in July.
Commercials are holding the biggest net long position in thirteen months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since May 2006.  Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since January. 

Grains - Soybeans find near term support at the daily June low of $7.99.  Further support is at the daily April  low of $7.32 1/2 followed by the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $7.23 3/4  (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of $4.98 1/2 and this year's current weekly high of $8.63).  If beans do not stabilize here they could be headed for this year's current weekly low of $6.45 1/2 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.37 3/4 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of $4.98 1/2 and this year's current weekly high of $8.63).  Near term resistance is at last week's high of $8.66 1/4 (all-sessions) followed closely by the current contract high of $8.70 1/4 (all-sessions).  Further resistance is at the psychological nine dollar mark.  After that August soybeans could put on another dollar and hit could the psychological ten dollar area.  Open Interest is at a new all-time high.  The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move higher thru the first half of July and then decline sharply in the second half of the month.  Commercial interests are holding a new record size net short position.  Large traders are holding a new record size net long position.  Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since September 2005. 

Soy Meal finds near term resistance at the daily June high of $240.80 (all-sessions).  Further resistance is at the contract high of $246.50 (all-sessions).  A breakout to new contract highs could cause a big bull run to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $289.90 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of $378.50 and the weekly 2004 low of $146.60).  Near term support is at the daily June low of $217.30.  Further support is at the daily April  low of $199.00.  If the April low is violated August soymeal could quickly hit this year's current weekly low of $190.80 followed closely by the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $188.00 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of $155.80 and this year's current weekly high of $240.00).  If meal fails to stabilize here it could plunge to last year's weekly low of $155.80.  Open Interest is at the lowest level since the beginning of January.  Seasonally, soy meal should move sideways in the first half of July and then decline in the second half of the month.  Commercials are holding a near record size net short position.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a huge net long position.  Small traders are holding the largest net long position since May 2004. 

Bean Oil finds near term resistance at last week's new multi-decade high of 37.85 (all-sessions).  Further resistance is at the 1984 high of 41.15.  Near term support is at the daily June low of 34.61 (August bean oil has only broken a previous month's low once in the last eight months).  A break below last month's low could cause a steep decline to the daily April low of 31.85.  Failure to stabilize here could result in a bigger decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 30.41 (as measured between the 2005 weekly low of 18.82 and this year's current weekly high of 37.57).  Further support is at this year's current weekly low of 27.58 (all-sessions).  Open Interest is at a three month low.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the weekly and monthly charts.  Bean oil tends to establish a major seasonal high in mid-July and decline for the rest of the month.  Commercial interests are holding their smallest net short position since March.  Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since then.  Small traders are neutral on bean oil.

Corn finds near term support at last week's new low for the year at $3.33 1/2 (all-sessions).  If corn continues it's descent it may trade down to the psychological three dollar area.  Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.81 3/4 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of $1.85 3/4 and this year's current weekly high of $4.37 1/4).  Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.75 (as measured between the contract high of $4.42 1/2 and last week's low of $3.33 1/2) followed closely by last week's high of $3.77 1/4 (all-sessions).  Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $4.01 (as measured between the contract high of $4.42 1/2 and last week's low of $3.33 1/2).  If the rally does not end here September corn may even hit the daily June high of $4.36 (all-sessions) or the contract high of $4.42 1/2 (all-sessions).  Open Interest is at the lowest level since April of 2006.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the daily chart.  The Seasonal index shows that corn should decline in a choppy fashion in July.  Commercial interests are holding one of the smallest net
short positions since the beginning of the year.  Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since October.  Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since December 2005. 

Oats find near term support at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.60 1/2 (as measured between daily April low of $2.37 and the contract high of $2.99) in confluence with last week's low of $2.59 3/4 (all-sessions).  Further support is at the daily April low of $2.37 (all-sessions).  If this low is breached oats could decline to the
psychological two dollar area.  Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.84 (as measured between the contract high of $2.99 and last week's low of $2.59 3/4).  Further resistance is at the
contract high of $2.99 (all-sessions) in confluence with this year's current weekly high of $3.02 (all-sessions).  A breakout to new contract highs could run September oats up to the psychological $3.50 mark.  Open Interest is at a five month low.  Oats have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in the first half of July and then decline in the last half of the month. Commercials are holding a near record size net short position.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position in history. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position. 

Wheat finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $6.50 (all-sessions).  Further resistance is at the psychological seven dollar mark.  After that wheat could challenge the 1996 all-time high of $7.50 (all-sessions).  Near term support is at last week's low of $5.93 3/4 (September wheat has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month).  If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could pull the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $5.69 3/4 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.40 and the current contract high of $6.50).  Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $5.20 1/4 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.40 and the current contract high of $6.50).  If September wheat breaks below this retracement it could be doomed to visit the daily April low of $4.40 (all-sessions).  Open Interest is at a three month high.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.  The Seasonal index shows that wheat should edge slightly higher in July.  Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long wheat position since March of 2005.  Large traders are holding the largest net long position since April of 2004.  Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position.

Softs - Coffee dropped about a penny below the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement so if it breaks last week's low of 110.90 it could quickly hit the contract low of 106.40.  A break to new contract lows could pull September coffee down to the weekly April low of 101.35.  If coffee does not stabilize here it could spill to the weekly 2006 low of 93.50.  Near term resistance is at the daily June high of 120.85.  A breakout above it could send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 125.95 (as measured between the contract high of 138.00 and the current contract low of 106.40).  Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 129.75.  Open Interest is just below the all-time high. Seasonally, coffee should decline sharply in July.  Commercials are holding the biggest net short coffee position since January.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since then.  Small traders are still neutral on the coffee market. 

Cocoa finds near term resistance at the new contract high of $2,069.  Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2,180 (as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 low of $1,299).  If the rally does not end here cocoa may keep running toward the 2003 multi-decade high of $2,420.  Near term support is at the daily June low of $1,848.  (September cocoa has only broken a previous month's low once in the last eight months).  Further support is at the daily May low of $1,786.  If this low is broken cocoa could decline to last year's weekly high of $1,731.  Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the current intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,587 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low at $1,299 and this year's current weekly high of $2,054) followed closely by this year's current weekly low of $1,566.  Open Interest is starting to pick back up after reaching a four month low.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.  Cocoa has a seasonal
tendency to rally and establish a major seasonal high in late July. Commercials are holding a near record net short position.  Large traders are holding a near record size net long position.  Small traders remain neutral on cocoa. 

Sugar finds near term support is at the contract low of 8.71.  If this low gets taken out, sugar could hit the psychological eight cent mark fairly quick.  After that sugar could tag the 2005 low of 7.50.  Near term resistance is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.75 (as measured between the March "island reversal" high of 11.43 and the contract low of 8.71) in confluence with the daily June high of 9.83.
Further resistance is at the April high of 10.35 in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.39 (as measured between the March "island reversal" high of 11.43 and the contract low of 8.71).  If October sugar does not stop here it could be headed for the March 2nd "island reversal" high of 11.43.  Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is nearing oversold levels on the monthly chart.  The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move sideways in July.  Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since March.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then.  Small traders are neutral. 

Orange Juice finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 118.90.  Further support is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.50 (as measured between the 2004 all-time low of 54.20 and this year's current multi-decade high of 209.50).  After that OJ could hit the psychological one dollar mark.  Near term resistance is at last week's high of 135.50 (September OJ has made lower weekly highs for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-May).  If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send OJ up to the daily April low of 146.00 (old support) or the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 148.90 (as measured between the daily January high of 197.50 and the current contract low of 118.90) in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 149.25 (as measured between the daily May reaction high of 168.00 and the current contract low of 118.90).  If the rally does not end here OJ may challenge the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 167.50 (as measured between the daily January high of 197.50 and the current contract low of 118.90) in confluence with the daily May reaction high of 168.00.  Open Interest is at the highest level since March.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is oversold on the daily and weekly charts.  Seasonally, OJ should move sideways in July.  Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since January of 2006.  Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then.  Small traders are neutral. 

Cotton finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 64.40.  Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 68.45 (as measured between the weekly 2003 high of 84.80 and the weekly 2004 low of 42 cents).  After that December cotton could hit the psychological 70 cent mark.  Near term support is at last week's low of 60.45 (December Cotton has made higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late May).  If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 59.51 (as measured between the contract low of 51.60 and the current contract high of 64.40).  Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 56.49 (as measured between the contract low of 51.60 and the current contract high of 64.40).  Open Interest is at a four month low.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is overbought on the daily and weekly charts.  Cotton has a seasonal tendency to decline in the first half of July and then move sideways for the remainder of the month.  Commercials are holding the biggest net short position since October 2003.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since November 2003.  Small traders are holding a big net long position.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2007 Pearce Financial, LLC
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