If the market continues it's descent it will leave a double top behind on the charts. This is a bearish omen for stocks. The September S&P 500 finds near term support clustered between a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1441.20 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 1364.00 and this year's current high of 1566.30), last week's low of 1437.00, and an intermediate Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1433.60 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 1219.00 and this year's current high of 1566.30). Further support is at the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1391.00 (the S&P 500 has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since May of 2003) in confluence with the daily March low of 1388.40 (all-sessions). This is an ideal spot to look for a buy set-up. If the market does not stabilize here it could plunge to a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1372.90 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 1060.20 and this year's current high of 1566.30) followed closely by this year's current low of 1364.00 (all-sessions). There's still a chance that the market recovers and reaches a new high in August or September as the market has adhered closely to a ten-year behavior pattern. Since 1842, there has only been one "7" year that did not have a sizable correction or even an outright market crash. In 1987 and 1997, the S&P 500 made a significant correction in the Spring and then ran to new all-time highs thru at least late August. Then the market fell apart in October. So far in 2007, the S&P 500 has followed the same pattern as it had made a significant correction in March and then ran to new multi-year highs. The current sell off in July shows a detour from the map, but if it recovers quickly expect a blow-off move into late August or September, followed by a sizable sell off again in the fourth quarter - particularly in October. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1516.90 (as measured between the contract high of 1566.30 and last week's of 1437.00). Further resistance is located between the contract high of 1566.30 (all-sessions) and the all-time high of 1574.00. A run to new highs should quickly allow it to tag the psychological 1600 mark. A strong close above 1600 could keep the momentum going and take it up toward the psychological 1700 mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since September. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the S&P 500 is oversold on the daily chart.

Seasonally, the S&P 500 should rally into an important high by the end of August. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position in years.

Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since March of 2004. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in five months. 

The September NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at current contract high of 2078.00 (all-sessions) in confluence with the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2081.50. A breakout above this level could send the market up to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2357.50 (as measured between the 2000 all-time high of 4882.00 and the 2002 low of 797.00). Further resistance is at the psychological 3000 mark. Near term support is at a minor weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1935.40 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 1704.75 and this year's current high of 2078.00) in confluence with last week's low of 1923.00. Further support is at a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1847.30 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 1704.75 and this year's current weekly high of 2078.00) in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1841.10 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1458.00 and this year's current weekly high of 2078.00). If the decline does not end here look for further erosion to this year's current weekly low of 1704.75 followed closely by an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1694.80 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1458.00 and this year's current weekly high of 2078.00). Open Interest is at moderate levels. The NASDAQ 100 should trade lower for the first week of August and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since early December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net short position since May of 2005. Small traders are holding a small net long position.

Interest rates - September T-bonds find near term resistance between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-20 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 114-04 and this year's current weekly low of 104-31), and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-22 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 119-30 and this year's current weekly low of 104-31), and last week's high of 110-27. Further resistance is at the weekly May reaction high of 112-10.

If the rally does not stop here T-bonds could be headed to this year's current weekly high of 114-04 in confluence with major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-07 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 119-30 and this year's current weekly low of 104-31). Near term support is at last week's low of 109-16 (T-bonds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106-30 (as measured between the daily contract low of 104-16 and last week's high of 110-27). Further support is at the daily contract low of 104-16. A break to new contract lows could quickly pressure T-bonds down to the monthly 2004 low of 103-02.

Failure to hold here could hammer the bonds down to the psychological 100 area. The September NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) is nearing resistance at the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2-27.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between last year's weekly high of 5-07 and this year's current weekly low of 1-13) in confluence with the weekly April low of 2-29 (old support). Further resistance is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-24.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between last year's weekly high of 5-07 and this year's current weekly low of 1-13). If the rally does not end here the NOB spread could trade back above the 5-00 mark again. Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-24 (as measured between the daily contract low of 1-05.5 and last week's high of 2-24). Further support is clustered between the daily contract low of 1-05.5, the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1-02.5 (as measured between the weekly 2003 low of 5-20 premium T-notes and the weekly 2006 high of 5-07 premium T-bonds), and the weekly 2006 low of 27/32nds premium T-bonds. If this support level is violated the spread could plunge to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-15.5 premium T-notes (as measured between the weekly 2003 low of 5-20 premium T-notes and the weekly 2006 high of 5-07 premium T-bonds). Open Interest has been sitting flat near record highs for the last couple of months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are overbought on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to rally in the first half of August and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are starting to liquidate some of their large net long position during the recent bond rally. It's the smallest position they have had since mid-May. Large traders are still holding one of their biggest net short positions since May of last year. Small traders are holding a sizable net short position.

September T-Notes find near term resistance at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 108-01 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 114-16 and the weekly 2004 low of 104-01) in confluence with last week's high of 108-03. Further resistance is located between this year's current weekly high of 109-09.5 and the weekly December high of 109-18. If T-notes can clear these highs they should gain another point and test an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 114-16 and the weekly 2004 low of 104-01). Near term support is at last week's low of 106-26 (T-notes have only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 105-11 (as measured between the daily contract low of 103-20.5 and last week's high of 108-03). Further support is at the daily contract low of 103-20.5. If September T-notes break to new contract lows it could plummet to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 100-27 (as measured between the monthly 1994 low of 88-10.5 and the 2003 all-time high of 121-03). Open Interest is sitting flat near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are near overbought on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move higher in August.

Commercials are increasing the size of their net short position, but they currently don't have anything considered historically "extreme". Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position in two months. Small traders are holding their smallest net short position since late May.

International Bonds - September Canadian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 111.68 in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.65 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and this year's weekly low of 108.83). Further resistance is at an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.38 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and this year's current weekly low of 108.83). Near term support is at last week's low of 110.40 (CGBs have only broken a previous week's low once in the last four weeks). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.09 (as measured between the daily contract low of 109.10 and last week's high of 111.68). Further support is at the daily contract low of 109.10. A break to new contract lows could pull the September CGBs down to the 2004 weekly low of 106.12.

September Euro Bunds find near term resistance at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113.18 (as measured between the weekly December reaction high of 118.88 and this year's weekly low of 109.66) in confluence with last week's high of 113.38. Further resistance is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.36 (as measured between the weekly December reaction high of 118.88 and this year's weekly low of 109.66) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 115.37 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current weekly low of 109.66). If the rally does not end here Euro bunds could soar to this year's current weekly high of 116.89. Near term support is at last week's low of 112.53 (bunds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111.08 (as measured between the daily contract low of 109.66 and the daily July high of 113.38). After that the market could decline to the daily contract low of 109.66. A break to new contract lows could send September Euro bunds spiraling down to the psychological 105.00 area. September long gilts find near term resistance at the July high of 106.05 in confluence with a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 106.17 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 108.19 and this year's current weekly low of 102.90). Further resistance is at a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107.93 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.08 and this year's weekly low of 102.90) followed closely by this year's current weekly high of 108.19. If gilts hit a new high for the year the market could rally up to the weekly December high of 110.48.

 September Australian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 94.09. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.185 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665) in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.22 (as measured between the weekly September high of 94.565 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665). If the rally does not terminate here Aussie bonds could challenge this year's current weekly high of 94.405. Near term support is at last week's low of 93.93 (Aussie bonds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 93.83 (as measured between the daily contract low of 93.665 and the daily July high of 94.09). Further support is at the daily contract low of 93.665. A break to new lows should keep Aussie bonds moving toward the 2002 low of 93.40.

 September JGB's find near term resistance at last week's high of 133.62. Further resistance is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 133.93 (as measured between the weekly December high of 135.89 and this year's current weekly low of 130.76). If JGBs make it past this level they could challenge this year's current weekly high of 135.50 or even the weekly December high of 135.89. Near term support is at last week's low of 132.93 (JGBs have only broken a previous week's low once in the last four weeks). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 131.85 (as measured between the contract low of 130.76 and last week's high of 133.62).

If the market does not establish support in this area it could challenge the current contract low of 130.76 in confluence with last year's weekly low of 130.71. This is closely followed by the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 130.29 (as measured between the 1994 low of 106.42 and the 2003 high of 145.04).

Currencies - The US Dollar Index The September US dollar index made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart when it dropped to a fifteen year low and then reversed to break a previous week's high for the first time since the beginning of June.

A rally above the July 30th high could allow the greenback to test the July high of 81.68 (the US dollar index has only broken a previous month's high once in the last six months) followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 81.81 (as measured between the daily June high of 83.01 and the daily contract low of 79.87). Further resistance is at a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 83.195 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 85.25 and this year's current weekly low of 79.87) followed closely by the weekly June reaction high of 83.26. If this high is taken out look for the buck to make a run for the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 84.705 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 79.87) or even this year's current weekly high of 85.25. Near term support is at the fifteen year low of 79.87 made in July. Further support is located at the 1992 low of 78.43. If this low gets taken out the greenback could collapse to the psychological 75-cent mark quickly. Open Interest is at an all-time high.

The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should decline in August. Commercial interests are holding a record size net long position. Large traders are holding a record size net short position. Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position. 

The Canadian Dollar made an outside reversal down on the weekly chart when it rallied to a new multi-decade high and then broke below a three week low. This is a bearish occurrence. Near term support is at the July low of .9350 (the Canadian dollar has not broken a previous month's low since February). A break below it could cause a decline to the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .9203 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .8427 and this year's current weekly high of .9682). Further support is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8906 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .8427 and this year's current weekly high of .9682). Near term resistance is at the current contract high of .9681. A break out to new highs could take the "looney" to parity with the US dollar. Open Interest is at a three month low. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should rally in August. Commercial interests are holding a record size net short position.

Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in a year.

The Australian Dollar finds near term support between last week's low of .8435 (the Aussie dollar has not broken a previous month's low since March) and a minor weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8415 ( as measured between this year's current weekly low of .7678 and this year's eighteen year high of .8871). Further support is clustered between an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8159 ( as measured between last year's weekly low of .7006 and this year's eighteen year high of .8871), the weekly May reaction low of .8158, and a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at

.8134 ( as measured between this year's current weekly low of .7678 and this year's eighteen year high of .8871). If the Aussie does not stabilize here it could drop to an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7718 ( as measured between last year's weekly low of .7006 and this year's eighteen year high of .8871) or even this year's current weekly low of .7678. Near term resistance is at this year's new eighteen year high of .8871 in confluence with the weekly 1989 high of .8880. A breakout to new contract highs could allow the market to hit the psychological 90 cent mark almost immediately. If the rally doesn't end here the market could eventually trade at the psychological 95-cent level. Open Interest is flat at low levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie dollar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move sideways in August.

Commercials are holding a huge net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) continue to sit on a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding a moderately large net long position.

The British Pound finds near term support at last week's low of 2.0170. Further support is at a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.9738 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 1.9183 and this year's current weekly high of 2.0636). If the decline does not end here sterling could slip to a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.9265 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 2.0636) or even this year's current weekly low of 1.9183. Near term resistance is at July's new twenty-six year high of 2.0636. Further resistance may not be found until the psychological 2.20 area. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is still overbought on the monthly chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to rally moderately in August. Commercials covered a fraction of their near record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are neutral on Sterling.

The Swiss Franc finds near term resistance at last week's two year weekly high of .8454. If the market can clear this barrier it may not find resistance again until the 2004 high of .8892. Near term support is at last week's low of .8293 (the Swiss franc has only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8217 (as measured between the contract low of .8071 and last week's high of .8454). If the decline does not end here look for a challenge of the contract low of .8071. After that the Swissie could visit this year's current weekly low of .7979. If the Swissie hits a new low for the year on the weekly chart it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7884 (as measured between the weekly 2005 double bottom low of .7548 and last year's weekly high of .8428) in confluence with the weekly October low of .7879. Open Interest is sitting flat. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves slightly higher in August. Commercial interests are holding a moderate size net long position. Large traders are holding a moderate size net short position. Small traders are holding their smallest net short position in nearly three months.

The Euro Currency finds near term resistance at July's new all-time high of 1.3878. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.40 mark. If the Euro does not slow down here it could be headed for the psychological 1.45 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.3631.

Further support is a penny lower at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3525 (as measured between the daily May low at 1.3306 and the current contact high of 1.3878). If the decline does not end here the Euro could trade down to an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3362 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3878) and the daily June low of 1.3306.

Further support is located at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3042 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3878) in confluence with a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3031 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.1661 and the current all-time high of 1.3878). Open Interest is at a moderate level. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is still overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, the Euro should trade flat to lower in August. Commercial interests are holding a near record size net short position. Large traders are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas.

The September Euro currency/Swiss franc spread finds near term resistance at the current all-time high of .5515 (premium Euro). Further resistance is at the psychological 60-cent mark. Near term support is at the weekly 18-bar Moving Average. This spread has not closed below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average since December of 2005. Further support is at the daily July closing low of .5349 (the September Euro-Swiss spread has only broken a previous month's low on the daily chart once since September). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .5269 (as measured between the daily March low of .4871 and the current all-time high of .5515) followed closely by the daily June closing low of .5248 and the daily May closing low of .5245. Further support is at the weekly February high of .5053 (old resistance) or even the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .4951 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and the current all-time weekly high of .5488).

The Japanese Yen finds near term resistance at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008518 in confluence with last week's high of .008555. Further resistance is clustered between the weekly December reaction high of .008754, the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008765 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of .009864 and this year's current weekly low of .008087), and an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008785 (as measured between last year's weekly high of .009217 and this year's current weekly low of .008087). If the yen does not stop here look for it to tag the psychological .009000 area. Near term support is at last week's low of .008420 (the yen has only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008300 (as measured between the daily contract low of .008142 and last week's high of .008555). Further support is at the daily contract low of .008142. A break to new contract lows could pressure the market down to the psychological .008000 mark. If the decline does not end here the yen may even test the psychological .007500 area. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is overbought on the daily chart. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in August. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position in three months. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position since April. Small traders remain neutral on the yen.

Metals - Gold finds near term support at the daily June low of $653.50 (all-sessions). Further support is clustered between the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $642.00 (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month for six consecutive years!), the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $640.50 (as measured between the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00 and this year's current weekly high of $693.30), and the weekly June low of $640.00 (all-sessions). If gold does not stabilize in this area it could mean that the bull market is officially over and send it right down to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $607.80 (as measured between the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00 and this year's current weekly high of $693.30) followed by this year's current weekly low of $603.00. Further support may not be found again until the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00. Near term resistance is at the daily July high of $701.00 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the double top at the contract high of $718.00 (all-sessions) made in February and the contract high of $718.00 (all-sessions) made again in April.

Further resistance is at last year's multi-decade high of high of $732.00 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since early April.

The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways in August.

Commercials are holding their biggest net short position in nearly three months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net long position since early May. Small traders are holding their biggest net long position since then.

Silver near term support at the weekly June low of $12.125 (all-sessions) in confluence with the weekly January low of $12.095 (all-sessions) and the monthly 18-bar Moving Average. If silver slips below this price zone it should quickly drop to an intermediate weekly Fibonacci.

618 retracement at $11.47 (as measured between the June 2006 weekly correction low of $9.45 and this year's current weekly high of $14.745). If silver does not establish support in this area it could plunge to the psychological ten dollar area. Near term resistance is at the daily July high of $13.59 (September silver has only traded above a previous month's high once in the last five months). If the market can clear last month's high look for a challenge of the daily June high of $13.99 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $14.005 (as measured between the daily contract high of $15.095 and the daily June low of $12.245). Further resistance is at the daily April high of $14.42 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $14.485 (as measured between the daily contract high of $15.095 and the daily June low of $12.245). After that September silver may challenge the contract high of $15.095 (all-sessions).

Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, silver should move sideways in August. Commercials are holding a small net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a small net long position. Small traders are neutral on silver.

Copper near term resistance at the daily July high of 374.80  (all-sessions) followed closely by the contract high of 377.90. A breakout to new highs may send the market soaring toward the psychological four dollar mark. If copper does not stop there it could test last year's high of 416.00 (all-sessions) on the weekly continuous chart. Near term support is at the July low of 343.75 (September copper has made higher monthly lows for five consecutive months). If this low is broken September copper could hit the daily May reaction low of 316.15 (all-sessions). If this low is broken copper could plunge to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 291.90 (as measured between the contract low of 238.75 and the contract high of 377.90). Open Interest is at the highest level since the Spring of 2006. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the weekly chart. Copper has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in August. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in thirteen months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short copper position since last July. Small traders are neutral on copper.

Energies - Crude Oil finds near term resistance at last week's new all-time high of $78.77 (all-sessions). A breakout to new all-time highs will likely take crude oil to the psychological eighty dollar mark almost immediately. If it does not back down here crude oil has the potential to keep running to the psychological ninety dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $75.24 (September crude oil has only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early June). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the daily April high of $69.96 (old resistance) in confluence with an intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $69.87 (as measured between the daily May low of $64.37 and the current contract high of $78.77). Further support is at the daily May low of $64.37 (all-sessions).

Open Interest is sitting at an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should rally in the first week of August and then tread water for the remainder of the month.

Commercial interests are holding a new record size net short position.

Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since February 2006.

RBOB near term support at last week's low of 200.05 (all-sessions). Further support is at the daily April low of 193.08 (all-sessions). If this low is broken look for a decline to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 176.28 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 133.50 and this year's current weekly high of 245.50). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 219.05 (as measured between the contract high of 230.77 and last week's low of 200.05). Further resistance is at the contract high of

230.77 (all-sessions). A breakout to new highs could allow September RBOB gasoline to test this year's current weekly high of 245.50 or even last year's weekly high of 250.50. A breakout above last year's high could cause a spike to the 2005 all-time high of 292.00. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. Seasonally, gasoline should trade slightly higher in August.

Commercial interests are holding a huge net short position. Large traders are adding to their massive net long position. Small traders are neutral at the moment.

Natural Gas finds near term support at the contract low of 5.855 (all-sessions). Further support is at the psychological 5.000 mark.

Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to last year's weekly low of 4.050 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is at last week's high of

6.684 (September natural gas has only broken a previous week's high twice in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late May). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market running to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.532 (as measured between the contract high of 8.569 and the current contract low of 5.855). Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 8.230 (all-sessions).

Open Interest has risen just slightly in the last few months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is nearing oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways to slightly higher in August. Commercial interests are holding a record size net long position. Large traders are holding a new record size net short position. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

Meats - Live Cattle near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 100.15. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 102.92 or even the 2003 all-time high of 103.60. If cattle can make it past this level it could cause a stampede of buying to take it to the psychological 110 area. Near term support is at last week's low of

97.65 (October cattle has only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 95.27 (as measured between the multi-month June low of 92.27 and the current contract high of 100.15). Further support is at the daily June low of 92.27. Open Interest is at a two month high.

The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that live cattle is overbought on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should move sideways in August. Commercial interests are holding a moderate size net long position. Large traders are quietly increasing the size of their net long position. Small traders are holding a small net short position.

Feeders near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 118.97. Further resistance is at the 2005 all-time weekly high of 119.75. If feeders break out to new all-times highs they will be in uncharted territory where anything is possible. This could carry the market toward the psychological 130 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 116.50 (October feeders have made higher weekly lows for seven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since late June). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.70 (as measured between the multi-month June low of 105.60 and the current contract high of 118.97).

Further support is at the daily June low of 105.60. Open Interest is at a four month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should trade slightly higher in August. Commercials are holding a small net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since September. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since April 2006.

Lean Hogs near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 77.70. Further resistance is at this the 2004 high of 82.70. If this high is exceeded hogs could make a dash for the 1996 high of 90.17. Near term support is at last week's low of 72.65 (October hogs have made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for four consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since early July). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 68.90 (as measured between the multi-month July low of 63.47 and the current contract high of 77.70). Further support is at the multi-month July low of 63.47. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are overbought on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in a choppy range in August. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since the Spring of 2006. Large traders (hedge funds) are aggressively reducing the size of their large net short position. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since November.

Grains - Soybeans find near term support at the daily July low of $8.33 1/4 (all-sessions) and the daily June low of $8.25 (all-sessions).  November beans have only broken a previous month's low once in ten months.

If these lows are taken out look for a decline to the multi-month April correction low of $7.51 1/2 (all-sessions). If the decline does not end here November beans may challenge this year's current low of $7.08 (all-sessions). A break to new lows could cause November beans to tumble to this year's current low of $6.45 1/2 (all-sessions) on the weekly continuous chart. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $9.05 1/2 (as measured between the contract high of $9.50 and daily July low of $8.33 1/4). Further resistance is at the contract high of $9.50 (all-sessions). If November beans break out to a new contract high, resistance may not be found again until the 2004 high of $10.64 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a two month low. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should move sideways in a choppy trading range in August. Commercial interests are holding a record size net short position.

Large traders are holding a near record size net long position. Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position.

Soy Meal finds near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $249.30 (as measured between the contract high of $267.10 and daily July low of $220.50). Further resistance is at the contract high of $267.10 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could carry meal on up to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $289.90 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of $378.50 and the weekly 2004 low of $146.60). Near term support is at the daily July low of $220.50 (all-sessions). Further support is at the daily April low of $204.00 (all-sessions). If the April low is violated August soy meal could quickly hit this year's current weekly low of $184.70. If meal fails to stabilize here it could plunge to last year's weekly low of $155.80. Open Interest is at the lowest level June of 2006. Seasonally, soy meal should sideways in a choppy trading range in August. Commercials are holding a huge net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a very large net long position. Small traders are holding a sizable net long position.

Bean Oil finds near term resistance at the new multi-decade high of 39.21 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the 1984 high of 41.15 (all-sessions). After this high is exceeded bean oil could keep heading for the psychological 45-cent mark. Near term support is at the daily July low of 37.06 (December bean oil has only broken a previous month's low once in the last nine months) followed by the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below since early October. A close below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average and a break below last month's low could signal that this tremendous bull market has run it's course and cause a steep decline to the daily April low of 32.66. Failure to stabilize here could result in a bigger decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 30.74 (as measured between the 2005 weekly low of 18.82 and this year's current weekly high of 38.11). Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Bean oil tends to decline in August.

Commercial interests are holding their smallest net short position since March. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on bean oil.

Corn near term support at the July low of $3.24 1/2 (all-sessions). If corn continues it's descent it may trade down to the psychological three dollar area. Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.81 3/4 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of $1.85 3/4 and this year's current weekly high of $4.37 1/4). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $3.46 3/4 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $3.66 3/4 (as measured between the contract high of $4.35 and the July low of $3.24 1/2) followed closely by the daily July high of $3.71 (all-sessions). If corn does not stall out here it may keep running toward the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.92 3/4 (as measured between the contract high of $4.35 and the July low of $3.24 1/2). Open Interest is sitting flat at very low levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should rally in the first half of August and decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since October. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position in ten months. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since February.

Oats near term resistance at the daily July high of $2.76 (all-sessions). This must be an important number since the market traded at this exact figure on five different days in July but could never get a tick above it! A trade above it would likely clear the path for a challenge of the contract high of $2.95 (all-sessions) or even this year's current weekly high of $3.02 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could run December oats up to the psychological $3.50 mark. Near term support is at the March low of $3.27 1/2 (all-sessions) in confluence with the July low of $3.26 1/2 (all-sessions). If these lows are broken look for a sharp break to the psychological two dollar area. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to last year's weekly low of $1.68 (all-sessions). Open Interest reached a new low for the year. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move lower in the first week of August and then sideways to higher for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since March. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since October. 

Wheat near term resistance at the new contract high of $6.78 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological seven dollar mark. After that wheat could challenge the 1996 all-time high of $7.50 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $6.39 (December wheat has made higher weekly lows for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could pull the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $5.92 1/4 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.53 1/2 and the current contract high of $6.78) in confluence with the daily July low of $5.87 1/2 (all-sessions). Further support is at the daily April high of $5.43 1/2 (old resistance) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $5.39 1/4 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.53 1/2 and the current contract high of $6.78). Open Interest is at a five month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should rally in August. Commercial interests are holding a small net long wheat position. Large traders are holding a large net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in six months.

Softs - Coffee finds near term resistance at last week's high of 118.40. Further resistance is at the daily June high of 120.85. A breakout above it could send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 125.95 (as measured between the contract high of 138.00 and the current contract low of 106.40). Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 129.75. Near term support is at the daily July low of 108.70. A break below it could quickly allow September coffee to hit the contract low of 106.40. A break to new contract lows could pull September coffee down to the weekly April low of 101.35. If coffee does not stabilize here it could spill to the weekly 2006 low of 93.50. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. Seasonally, coffee should trade sideways for the first half of August and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a moderate size net short coffee position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a small net long position in coffee. Small traders are slightly bullish on the coffee market.

Cocoa finds near term support at last week's low of $1,890 (September cocoa has only broken a previous month's low one other time in the last nine months). Further support is at the daily May low of $1,786.  If this low is broken cocoa could decline to last year's weekly high of $1,732 (old resistance). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the current intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,621 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low at $1,299 and this year's current weekly high of $2,143). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2,046 (as measured between the contract high of $2,141 and the daily July low of $1,890). Further resistance is at the new contract high of $2,141 followed by the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2,180 (as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 low of $1,299). If the rally does not end here cocoa may keep running toward the 2003 multi-decade high of $2,420. Open Interest is flat at high levels. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to decline thru most of August and then rally during the last week of the month. Commercials are holding a new record net short position. Large traders are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders remain neutral on cocoa.

Sugar finds near term resistance at last week's high of 10.56.  Further resistance is at the March "island reversal" high of 11.43. If this high is exceeded sugar could tag the psychological twelve cent mark. If October sugar does not stop here it could be headed for another technical resistance cluster between the weekly November reaction high of 12.57, the weekly October reaction high of 12.65, and the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 12.71 (as measured between last year's multi-year high of 19.73 and this year's current weekly low of 8.37). Near term support is at last week's low of 9.99 (October sugar has only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 9.42 (as measured between the contract low of 8.71 and the daily July high of 10.56). Further support is at the contract low of 8.71. If this low gets taken out, sugar could hit the psychological eight cent mark fairly quick. After that sugar could tag the 2005 low of 7.50. Open Interest has been flat for about two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is nearing an overbought level on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should drop in August. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in a year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since Christmas. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in two months.

Orange Juice finds near term support resistance at the July high of 142.80 (September OJ has made lower monthly highs for six out of the last seven months). Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 153.50 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 209.50 and this year's current weekly low of 118.85). If the rally does not subside in this are it could head up to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 174.90 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 209.50 and this year's current weekly low of 118.85) followed closely by the weekly May reaction high of 178.50. Near term support is at last week's low of 136.05 (September OJ has only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks). If the market breaks a previous week's low it could test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 128.10 (as measured between the contract low of 119.00 and the daily July high of 142.80). Further support is at the contract low of 119.00. After that OJ could hit the psychological one dollar mark. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is nearing overbought on the daily chart.

Seasonally, OJ should move rally for the first half of August and decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since January of 2006. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in eleven months.

Cotton finds near term support between the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 62.22 (as measured between the contract low of 51.60 and the current contract high of 68.78) and the daily July low of 61.84.

Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 58.16 (as measured between the contract low of 51.60 and the current contract high of 68.78). If the market does not stabilize here December cotton runs the risk of a decline to the contract low of 51.60. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 66.13 (as measured between the contract high of 68.78 and the daily July low of 61.84). Further resistance is at the contract high of 68.78. A breakout to new contract highs should cause a quick rally to the psychological 70 cent mark. If the run does not end here it could catapult December cotton on up to the psychological 80 cent area. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is nearing overbought levels on the monthly chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to decline in the first week of August and then rally sharply for the remainder of the month.

Commercials are holding the biggest net short position on record. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position.

Small traders are also holding a new record size net long position.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2007 Pearce Financial, LLC
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