The September NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at last week's high of 1999.25. If the market can clear this high it could zoom back up to the current contract high of 2078.00 (all-sessions) in confluence with the weekly May 2001 reaction high of 2081.50. A breakout above this level could send the market up to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2357.50 (as measured between the 2000 all-time high of 4882.00 and the 2002 low of 797.00). Further resistance is at the psychological 3000 mark. Near term support is at the August low of 1813.00. If last month's low is broken the NASDAQ 100 could plunge to this year's current weekly low of 1704.75 followed closely by an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1694.80 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1458.00 and this year's current weekly high of 2078.00). Open Interest is sitting flat at moderate levels. The NASDAQ 100 should trend lower in September.

Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since December of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net short position since March of 2004. Small traders are holding a small net short position.

Interest rates - December T-bonds find near term resistance at last week's multi-month high of 111-31. If the bond market continues it's run look for it to hit this year's current weekly high of 114-04 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-07 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 119-30 and this year's current weekly low of 104-31). A breakout above this barrier could allow the market to test the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-06 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 124-10 and the 2004 multi-year low of 103-02). Near term support is at last week's low of 110-15 (T-bonds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average most of the time for the last two months). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 109-04 (as measured between the daily contract low of 104-18 and last week's high of 111-31) followed closely by the daily August low of 108-21. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107-13 (as measured between the daily contract low of 104-18 and last week's high of 111-31). If T-bonds do not stabilize here they could be headed toward the daily contract low of 104-16.

The December NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds technical resistance clustered between the daily August high of 2-27 (premium T-bonds), the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 2-27.5 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 5-07 and this year's current weekly low of 1-13), and the weekly April low of 2-30 (old support). Further resistance is at the daily May high of 3-22 (premium T-bonds) in confluence with the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-24.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between last year's weekly high of 5-07 and this year's current weekly low of 1-13). If the rally does not end here the NOB spread could trade back above the 5-00 mark again. Near term support is at the double bottom on the daily chart between the August 17th low of 1-10 and the June 12th low of 1-09. If the December NOB spread hits a new low it should trade at even-money fairly quickly.  Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-15.5 premium T-notes (as measured between the weekly 2003 low of 5-20 premium T-notes and the weekly 2006 high of 5-07 premium T-bonds). Open Interest has been sitting flat near record highs for the last couple of months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-bonds are overbought on the daily chart. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher in September. Commercial interests are holding their smallest net long position since December. It's the smallest position they have had since mid-May. Large traders are holding their smallest net short positions since February of 2006. Small traders are holding a small net short position.

December T-Notes December Ten- year notes find near term resistance at last week's high multi-month of 109-15.5. Further resistance is located between last year's weekly high of 110-06.5, an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-16 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 114-16 and the weekly 2004 low of 104-01), and the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110-17.5 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 121-03 and the weekly 2004 low of 104-01). If the market can penetrate this major price barrier it could soar to the weekly 2005 high of 114-16 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-18.5 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 121-03 and the weekly 2004 low of 104-01).  Near term support is at last week's low of 108-05 (T-notes have only broken a previous week's low once in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for the last two months). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107-02 (as measured between the daily contract low of 103-04 and last week's high of 108-29). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 105-17.5 (as measured between the daily contract low of 103-04 and last week's high of 108-29). If T-notes do not stabilize here they could be headed for the contract low of 103-04. Open Interest dropped to a five month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are near overbought on the daily and weekly charts.  T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move higher in September. Commercials are starting to cover some of their record net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) sold some of their record net long position. Small traders are holding their smallest net short position since late March.

International Bonds - September Canadian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 112.74. Further resistance is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.38 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.20 and this year's current weekly low of 108.83). If the rally does not end here CGBs could test a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.36 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 117.78 and this year's current weekly low of 108.83). Near term support is at last week's low of 111.54 (CGBs have only broken a previous week's low once in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111.33 (as measured between the daily contract low of 109.06 and last week's high of 112.74). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.47 (as measured between the daily contract low of 109.06 and last week's high of 112.74). After that CGBs could slide to the contract low of 109.06.

December Euro Bunds find near term resistance at the daily August high of 113.84. Further resistance is at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.36 (as measured between the weekly December reaction high of 118.88 and this year's weekly low of 109.66) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 115.37 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current weekly low of 109.66).  If the rally does not end here Euro bunds could soar to this year's current weekly high of 116.89. Near term support is at last week's low of 112.79 (bunds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.11 (as measured between the daily contract low of 109.30 and the daily August high of 113.84). Further support is another full point lower at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111.03 (as measured between the daily contract low of 109.30 and the daily August high of 113.94). If this level is breached, bunds could decline down to the daily contract low of 109.30.  December long gilts find near term resistance at the August high of 107.45 followed by a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107.93 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 116.08 and this year's weekly low of 102.90). Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 108.19. If gilts hit a new high for the year the market could rally up to the weekly December high of 110.48. Near term support is at last week's low of 106.47 (gilts have only broken a previous week's low once in the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average almost every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 105.77 (as measured between the daily contract low of 103.05 and the daily August high of 107.45). Further support is another full point lower at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 104.73 (as measured between the daily contract low of 103.05 and the daily August high of 107.45). Failure to stabilize here could lead to a decline to the contract low of 103.05.

 September Australian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 94.09. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.185 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665) in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.22 (as measured between the weekly September high of 94.565 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665). If the rally does not terminate here Aussie bonds could challenge this year's current weekly high of 94.405. Near term support is at last week's low of 93.93 (Aussie bonds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 93.83 (as measured between the daily contract low of 93.665 and the daily July high of 94.09). Further support is at the daily contract low of 93.665. A break to new lows should keep Aussie bonds moving toward the 2002 low of 93.40.

September JGB's find near term resistance at the August high of 136.18 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 136.18 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 145.04 and the 2006 multi-year low of 130.71). Further resistance is at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.29 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 141.35 and the 2006 multi-year low of 130.71). If JGBs make it past this level they could challenge this the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.57 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 145.04 and the 2006 multi-year low of 130.71). Near term support is at last week's low of 134.59 (JGBs have only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 134.09 (as measured between the daily contract low of 130.70 and the current contract high of 136.18). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.79 (as measured between the daily contract low of 130.70 and the current contract high of 136.18). After that December JGBs could slide down to the contract low of 130.70.

Currencies - The US Dollar Index finds important support at the contract low of 79.85. Further support is located at the 1992 low of 78.43.  If this low gets taken out the greenback could collapse to the psychological 75-cent mark quickly. Near term resistance is at the daily August high of 82.085. A breakout above it could allow the greenback to test a minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 83.195 (as measured between this year's current weekly high of 85.25 and this year's current weekly low of 79.87) followed closely by the weekly June reaction high of 83.26. If this high is taken out look for the buck to make a run for the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 84.705 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 92.53 and this year's current weekly low of 79.87) or even this year's current weekly high of 85.25. Open Interest is at a two month low.  The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is still oversold on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move sideways for the first half of September and decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests dumped a significant amount of their record size net long position. Large traders covered some of their record size net short position. Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position.

The Canadian Dollar finds near term resistance at the August high of .9567 (all-sessions). After that this market could challenge the contract high of .9682. A break out to new highs could take the "looney" to parity with the US dollar. Near term support is at the August low of .9205 (the Canadian dollar has not broken a previous month's low since February) in confluence with the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .9203 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .8427 and this year's current weekly high of .9682). Further support is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8906 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of .8427 and this year's current weekly high of .9682). Failure to stabilize here could result in a break to this year's current weekly low of .8427. Open Interest is sitting flat at a three month low. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should stay in a very choppy range in September. Commercial interests covered a fraction of their record size net short position. Large traders are finally paring back on their record size net long position and are now holding their smallest position in over three months. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

The Australian Dollar spiked to a multi-month low (just below a major weekly Fibonacci .618 support level) and then recovered half of the losses in just a few trading days! The August low of .7665 is important support. A break below it could hammer the market down to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7306 ( as measured between the 2001 multi-year low of .4774 and this year's eighteen year high of .8871). Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at.8410 (as measured between the August low of .7665 and the contract high of .8871). A close above this level could allow the Aussie to challenge the double top between this year's eighteen year high of .8871 and the weekly 1989 high of .8880. A breakout to new contract highs could allow the market to hit the psychological 90 cent mark almost immediately. If the rally doesn't end here the market could eventually trade at the psychological 95-cent level. Open Interest is at an eleven month low. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move sideways in September.  Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in nearly fourteen months.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since July 2006. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since April 2006.

The British Pound finds near term resistance between last week's high of 2.0030 (all-sessions) and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2.0255 (as measured between the August low of 1.9638 and the contract high of 2.0636). A close above this level could allow sterling to challenge the contract high of 2.0636. A breakout to new contract highs could allow the market to make a run for the psychological 2.20 area. Near term support is at the August low of 1.9638 in confluence with the weekly June low of 1.9623. Further support is at a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.9265 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 2.0636) or even this year's current weekly low of 1.9183. If the pound does not stand it's ground in this area it could trade down to the psychological 1.90 mark in a heartbeat. Open Interest is at the lowest level since April. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is still overbought on the monthly chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since March. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since April 2006.

The Swiss Franc finds near term resistance at the August spike high of .8491. A breakout above this high could catapult the market on up to the 2004 high of .8892. Near term support is at the August low of .8205.  Further support is at the contract low of .8071. After that the Swissie could visit this year's current weekly low of .7979. If the Swissie hits a new low for the year on the weekly chart it could decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7884 (as measured between the weekly 2005 double bottom low of .7548 and last year's weekly high of .8428) in confluence with the weekly October low of .7879. Open Interest reached a two and a half month high. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually rallies in September. Commercial interests are holding a moderate size net long position. Large traders are holding the smallest net short position in months. Small traders are neutral at the moment.

The Euro Currency is currently testing near term resistance at the daily Fibonacci .618 retracement. A trade above last week's high of 1.3730 could clear the path for a run to the all-time high of 1.3878. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.40 mark. If the Euro does not slow down here it could even be headed for the psychological 1.45 area. Near term support is at the August low of 1.3370 in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3362 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3878) and followed closely by the daily June low of 1.3306.  Further support is located at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3042 (as measured between the weekly October reaction low of 1.2526 and the current all-time high of 1.3878) in confluence with a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3031 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.1661 and the current all-time high of 1.3878). Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is still overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, the Euro should trade a bit higher in September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since October 2006. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since then as well.

The September Euro currency/Swiss franc spread finally triggered a reversal signal in August when it closed below the weekly 18-bar Moving Average for the first time since December of 2005, broke a previous month's low on the daily chart, and made an "overbalancing of price" by making a larger correction off the highs than all the other corrections that occurred during the bull market run. Near term support is at the daily August closing low of .5170. Further support is at the weekly February high of .5053 (old resistance) or even the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .4951 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and the current all-time weekly high of .5488). If the decline does not end here the spread could hit the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .4618 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of .4081 and the current all-time weekly high of .5488). Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .5383 (as measured between the all-time high of .5515 and the August low of .5170). A close above this level could allow the spread to zip back up to the current all-time high of .5515 (premium Euro). Further resistance is at the psychological 60-cent mark.

The Japanese Yen finds near term resistance at the August spike high of .008995. A breakout above this high could cause a surge to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009185 in confluence with the weekly 2006 high of .009217. Further resistance is at the psychological .009500 area. Near term support is at last week's low of .008588 (the yen has only broken a previous week's low twice in the last eleven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly two months). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008468 (as measured between the daily contract low of .008142 and the current contract high of .008995). Further support is at the daily contract low of .008142. A break to new contract lows could pressure the market down to the psychological .008000 mark. Open Interest is at a three month low and moving sideways. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in September. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since June of 2006. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since January 2005. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since March.

Metals - Gold finds near term support between the multi-month August low of $651.60 (all-sessions) and the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $648.00 (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month for six consecutive years!). Further support is located a few dollars lower at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $640.50 (as measured between the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00 and this year's current weekly high of $693.30) in confluence with the weekly June low of $640.00 (all-sessions). If gold does not stabilize in this area it could get slammed to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $607.80 (as measured between the weekly June 2006 low of $555.00 and this year's current weekly high of $693.30) followed closely by this year's current weekly low of $603.00. Near term resistance is at the daily August high of $688.10 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily July high of $701.00 (all-sessions). If this high is exceeded December gold may be gearing up for an assault on the double top at the contract high of $718.00 (all-sessions) made in February and the contract high of $718.00 (all-sessions) made again in April. Further resistance is at last year's multi-decade high of high of $732.00 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level in eleven months. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways in the first half of September and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since the beginning of the year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position in eleven months.

Silver finds near term support at the daily August low of $11.245 (all-sessions). A break to new lows could send silver right to the major monthly Fibonacci. 382 retracement at $10.785 (as measured between the 2001low of $4.015 and the 2006 multi-decade high of $14.97). If silver does not stabilize here expect a decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $9.64 (as measured between the 2005 weekly low of $6.35 and the 2006 multi-decade high of $14.97) in confluence with the June 2006 weekly correction low of $9.45. Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $12.795 (as measured between the daily contract high of $15.30 and the current contract low of $11.245) in confluence with the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $12.81 (as measured between the July contract high of $13.775 and the current contract low of $11.245). Further resistance is at the daily July high of $13.775 (December silver has only traded above a previous month's high once in the last six months) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $13.75 (as measured between the daily contract high of $15.30 and the current contract low of $11.245). If the market does not stop at this level it might rally as high as the 2006 multi-decade high of $14.97 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a three month low. Seasonally, silver should rally in September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since April 2003. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since the summer of 2003. Small traders are neutral on silver.

Copper finds near term resistance at last week's high of 349.70 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the contract high of 370.20 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could send December copper running for the psychological four dollar mark. If copper does not stop there it could test last year's high of 416.00 (all-sessions) on the weekly continuous chart. Near term support is at the daily August low of 304.70 (all-sessions). If this low is breached December copper could hit the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 288.50 (as measured between the contract low of 238.00 and the contract high of 370.20). Further support may not be found until this year's current low on the weekly chart at 238.50 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-March. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the weekly chart. Copper has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in September. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since April. Large traders (hedge funds) are starting to increase the size of their small net short copper position. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in years.

Energies - Crude Oil finds near term support between the daily August low of $68.63 and the weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $67.74 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of $49.90 and the current all-time high of $78.77). Further support is at the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $60.93 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of $49.90 and the current all-time high of $78.77) in confluence with the weekly May reaction low of $60.68 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $74.44 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $74.51 (as measured between the contract high of $78.15 and the daily August low of $68.63). Further resistance is at the all-time high of $78.77 (all-sessions). A breakout to new all-time highs will likely take crude oil to the psychological eighty dollar mark almost immediately.  If it does not back down here crude oil has the potential to keep running to the psychological ninety dollar mark. Open Interest is sitting near the all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should tread water for most of September and then rally in the last week of September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since mid-May. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since February. Small traders are neutral on crude oil right now.

Heating Oil  finds near term support at the daily August low of 195.07 (all-sessions). Further support is at the daily May low of 188.30 (all-sessions) followed by the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 187.94 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 145.30 and this year's current weekly high of 214.29). If the market does not stabilize here it could drop to the psychological 180 area. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 209.17 (as measured between the contract high of 217.88 and the daily August low of 195.07).  Further resistance is at the contract high of 217.88 (all-sessions). A breakout to new highs could allow October heating oil to test the 2005 all-time high of 221.00. Open Interest is at the lowest level since June.  Seasonally, heating oil should trade decline in the first half of September and then rally sharply in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are increasing the size of their net short position. Large traders are adding to their sizable net long position. Small traders are neutral at the moment.

Natural Gas finds near term support at last week's new contract low of 5.414 (all-sessions). Further support is at the psychological 5.000 mark. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to last year's weekly low of 4.050 (all-sessions). Near term resistance is at the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 6.610 (as measured between the August reaction high of 7.345 and the current contract low of 5.414) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 6.670 (as measured between the August reaction high of 7.345 and the current contract low of 5.414). Further resistance is at the August reaction high of 7.345 (all-sessions) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.441 (as measured between the August reaction high of 7.345 and the current contract low of 5.422). If natural gas does not stop here it could climb to this year's current weekly high of 8.230 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is nearing oversold on the daily, weekly, and weekly charts. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways thru most of September. Commercial interests are holding a record size net long position. Large traders are holding a new record size net short position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in thirteen months.

Meats - Live Cattle finds near term resistance at last week's high of 98.55. After that the market could test the contract high of 100.15.  Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 102.92 or even the 2003 all-time high of 103.60. If cattle can make it past this level it could cause a stampede of buying to take it to the psychological 110 area.  Near term support is at the August low of 93.62. A break below it should knock cattle down to the June low of 92.27. If this low is broken October live cattle may decline swiftly to the minor weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 88.82 (as measured between this year's current weekly low of 85.05 and the weekly July high of 94.97). Open Interest has stabilized near multi-month lows. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should move higher in the first week of September and then drift lower for the remainder of the month. Commercial interests are holding a moderate size net long position. Large traders are quietly increasing the size of their net long position.  Small traders are holding a small net short position.

Feeders finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 119.35. Further resistance is at the 2005 all-time weekly high of 119.75. If feeders break out to new all-times highs they will be in uncharted territory where anything is possible. This could carry the market toward the psychological 130 area. Near term support is at the daily August reaction low of 114.20 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114.10 (as measured between the multi-month June low of 105.60 and the current contract high of 119.35). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.85 (as measured between the multi-month June low of 105.60 and the current contract high of 119.35). If the decline does not end here feeders may drop to the multi-month June low of 105.60. Open Interest is at a four month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should trade sharply higher in the first half of September and then soften just a little in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a small net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position in a year. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in a year and a half.

Lean Hogs find near term support at the daily August low of 65.67. Further support is at the multi-month July low of 63.47. A clean break below this level could send hogs on their way back down to this year's current weekly low of 59.10. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 70.40 (October hogs have made lower weekly highs for four consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that they have not closed above in nearly a month. A rally above a previous week's high and a close above the 18-day Moving Average could snap hogs out of the current down trend and run them right up to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 73.12 (as measured between the contract high of 77.70 and the daily August low of 65.67). If hogs can clear this Fibonacci resistance level they could go screaming back up to the contract high of 77.70. Further resistance is at this the 2004 high of 82.70. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are oversold on the daily chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to trade sharply higher in September.  Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since the Spring of 2006. Large traders (hedge funds) are aggressively reducing the size of their large net short position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since May. Small traders are covering some of their large net short position.

Grains - Soybeans November soybeans find near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.94 1/2 (as measured between the contract high of $9.50 and daily August low of $8.04 1/2) in confluence with last week's high of $8.96 (all-sessions). A strong close above this level could propel beans back up to the contract high of $9.50 (all-sessions). If November beans break out to a new contract high, resistance may not be found again until the 2004 high of $10.64 (all-sessions). Near term support is at the daily August low of $8.04 1/2 (all-sessions). A break below it could push November beans down to the multi-month April correction low of $7.51 1/2 (all-sessions). If the decline does not end here the market may challenge this year's current low of $7.08 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are overbought on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should decline in September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since mid-May. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position.

Soy Meal finds near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 37.42 (as measured between the contract high of 39.21 and daily August low of 34.53) in confluence with last week's high of 37.50 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the multi-decade high of 39.21 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could send December bean oil up to challenge the 1984 high of 41.15 (all-sessions). If this high is exceeded bean oil could keep heading for the psychological 45-cent mark.  Near term support is at the daily August low of 34.53. A break below it could cause a decline to the daily April low of 32.66 (all-sessions).  Failure to stabilize here could result in a bigger decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 30.74 (as measured between the 2005 weekly low of 18.82 and this year's current weekly high of 38.11). Open Interest is at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the and monthly chart. Bean oil tends to rally thru most of September and then soften in the last few trading days of the month. Commercial interests are holding their smallest net short position in eleven months. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since last October. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position since then.

Bean Oil finds near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 37.42 (as measured between the contract high of 39.21 and daily August low of 34.53) in confluence with last week's high of 37.50 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the multi-decade high of 39.21 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could send December bean oil up to challenge the 1984 high of 41.15 (all-sessions). If this high is exceeded bean oil could keep heading for the psychological 45-cent mark.  Near term support is at the daily August low of 34.53. A break below it could cause a decline to the daily April low of 32.66 (all-sessions).  Failure to stabilize here could result in a bigger decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 30.74 (as measured between the 2005 weekly low of 18.82 and this year's current weekly high of 38.11). Open Interest is at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the and monthly chart. Bean oil tends to rally thru most of September and then soften in the last few trading days of the month. Commercial interests are holding their smallest net short position in eleven months. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since last October. Small traders are holding their smallest net long position since then.

Corn finds near term support between the August low of $3.26 1/2 (all-sessions) and the July low of $3.24 1/2 (all-sessions). If corn continues it's descent it may trade down to the psychological three dollar area. Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.81 3/4 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of $1.85 3/4 and this year's current weekly high of $4.37 1/4). Near term resistance is located between the daily August high of $3.72 (all-sessions) and the daily July high of $3.71 (all-sessions). A breakout above these highs could cause a run to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.92 3/4 (as measured between the contract high of $4.35 and the July low of $3.24 1/2). If corn does not stall out here it may keep running toward the contract high of $4.35 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since March of 2006. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is oversold on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that corn should decline in September. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since October. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since January.

Oats find near term resistance at the daily July high of $2.76 (all-sessions). This must be an important number since the market traded at this exact figure on five different days in July but could never get a tick above it! A trade above it would likely clear the path for a challenge of the contract high of $2.95 (all-sessions) or even this year's current weekly high of $3.02 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could run December oats up to the psychological $3.50 mark. Near term support is at the daily March low of $2.37 1/2 (all-sessions) in confluence with the July low of $2.36 1/2 (all-sessions). If these lows are broken look for a sharp break to the psychological two dollar area. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to last year's weekly low of $1.68 (all-sessions). Open Interest is sitting flat at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are oversold on the weekly chart. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move higher in the first week of September and then sideways to lower for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since October of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since March. Small traders are now net short for the first time in several years.

Wheat finds near term resistance at the new all-time high of $8.07 3/4 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological nine dollar level. Near term support is at last week's low of $7.31 1/2 (December wheat has made higher weekly lows for thirteen out of the last fourteen weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could pull the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $6.72 1/4 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.53 1/2 and the current contract high of $8.07 3/4).  Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $5.88 3/4 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.53 1/2 and the current contract high of $8.07 3/4) in confluence with the daily July low of $5.87 1/2 (all-sessions). Failure to establish support here could take wheat back below the psychological five dollar mark. Open Interest is at a three month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should trade sideways in September. Commercial interests are holding a small net long wheat position. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since the Spring of 2004. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in a year.

Softs - Coffee finds near term support at the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 113.35 (as measured between the contract low of 110.00 and the daily August high of 125.80) in confluence with the daily July low of 113.20. A break below it could quickly allow September coffee to hit the contract low of 110.00. A break to new contract lows could cause December coffee to decline the weekly April low of 101.35. If coffee does not stabilize here it could spill to the weekly 2006 low of 93.50. Near term resistance is at the daily August high of 125.80. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 129.15 (as measured between the contract high of 141.00 and the current contract low of 110.00) in confluence with last year's high of 129.75 on the weekly chart.  If these levels are exceeded coffee may hit the 2005 high of 137.00. Open Interest is near an all-time high. Seasonally, coffee should trade sideways to slightly lower in September. Commercials are holding their biggest net short coffee position since Christmas. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since mid-December. Small traders are slightly bullish on the coffee market.

Cocoa finds near term support at the August low of $1,750 followed by last year's weekly high of $1,732 (old resistance). Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the current intermediate monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,621 (as measured between the 2004 weekly low at $1,299 and this year's current weekly high of $2,143). Near term resistance is at last week's high of $1,829 (December cocoa has made lower weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks and lower weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market up to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2,006 (as measured between the contract high of $2,164 and the daily August low of $1,750). 

Further resistance is at the contract high of $2,164 followed closely by the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2,180 (as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 low of $1,299). Open Interest is at the lowest level since February of 2006. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to stage a rally in September. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in nine months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since the beginning December. Small traders remain neutral on cocoa.

Sugar finds near term resistance at the August 23rd reaction high of 9.73. Further resistance is at the daily August high of 10.56. If last month's high is exceeded look for October sugar to challenge the March "island reversal" high of 11.43. A trade above it could send the market right to the psychological twelve cent mark. Near term support is at the daily August low of 9.08. Further support is at the contract low of 8.70.  If this low gets taken out, sugar could hit the psychological eight cent mark fairly quick. After that sugar could tag the 2005 spike low of 7.50.  Open Interest has been flat for three months straight. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is nearing an oversold level on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move sideways in September. Commercials are starting to get a little bullish on the sugar market. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a small net long position. Small traders are neutral at the moment.

Orange Juice finds near term support at the contract low of 117.75.  A break to new contract lows could pull the market down to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.50 (as measured between the 2004 all-time low of 54.20 and last year's multi-year high of 209.40). Further support is at the psychological one dollar mark. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 123.00 (November OJ has made lower weekly highs for five consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above since early August. A breakout above a previous week's high and a strong close above the 18-day Moving Average could signal a bottom for this market and send it back up to the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (OJ has not closed above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average in six months) followed closely by the July and August highs of 143.40 and 143.00. If these highs are cleared the market could run to the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 152.60 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 209.40 and this year's current weekly low of 117.50). Open Interest reached a new low for the year. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is nearing oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, OJ should move lower the first half of September and rally in the second half of the month.  Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since January of 2006. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then.  Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in eleven months.

Cotton made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart last week when it took out the previous week’s low and then reversed to clear the previous week’s high. It also closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-July. This is all very bullish price action. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 61.78. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 64.17 (as measured between the contract high of 68.78 and the daily August low of 56.70). If the rally does not end here December cotton may return to the contract high of 68.78.  Near term support is at the August low of 56.70. A break below it could clear the way for a drop to the contract low of 51.60. If December cotton hits a new contract low it could decline to the psychological fifty-cent level. Open Interest is sitting flat at the lowest level since February.  Cotton has a seasonal tendency to trade in a very choppy range thru most of September and then decline sharply in the last week of the month.  Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since early June.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2007 Pearce Financial, LLC
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