A break below a previous week's low and a close below the 18-day Moving Average could cause a decline to the daily September low of 1454.50 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1450.00 (as measured between the contract low of 1387.00 and the daily September high of 1552.00). Failure to stabilize here could lead the market down to the weekly August low of 1375.00 (all-sessions), a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1372.90 (as measured between the weekly 2004 low of 1060.20 and this year's current high of 1566.30), or even this year's current low of 1364.00 (all-sessions). If these lows are broken the market could plummet to the monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1261.10 (as measured between the 2002 bear market low of 767.50 and this year's current high of 1566.30). If the S&P 500 were to trade at this level it would be nearly 20% off of this year's high and most likely in the midst of a “crash”-type environment. This would put the market in extremely oversold territory where it could turn on a dime and establish an ideal buying low.

Open Interest is at a multi-month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the S&P 500 is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, the S&P 500 should establish a major seasonal low in October. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position in several years. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since March of 2004. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in years.

The December NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at last week's new six and a half year high of 2120.00. If the market can continue it’s run look for it to trade up to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at2357.50 (as measured between the 2000 all-time high of 4882.00 and the 2002 low of 797.00). Further resistance is at the psychological 3000 mark. Near term support is at last week’s low of 2066.25 (the NASDAQ 100 has only broken a previous week's low once in the last six weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below in the last month. A break below a previous week's low and a close below the 18-day Moving Average could cause a decline to the monthly September low of 1947.00 (the NASDAQ 100 has only broken a previous month's low once in the last six months). If the September low is broken the market is vulnerable to a break to the weekly August spike low of 1813.00 (all-sessions). If this low is taken out the NASDAQ 100 could plunge to this year's current weekly low of 1704.75 in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1701.70 (as measured between last year's weekly low of 1458.00 and this year's current weekly high of 2120.00). Open Interest is at a multi-month low.

The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The NASDAQ 100 should establish a major seasonal low in October. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net long position since March. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net short position since then. Small traders are holding a their biggest net short position since December.

Interest rates - December T-bonds find near term support at last month's low of 109-29 (T-bonds have made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 108-08 (as measured between the daily contract low of 104-18 and the contract high of 114-08). Failure to hold support at this level could cause a decline to the daily contract low of 104-18. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112-19 (as measured between the contract high of 114-08 and the daily September low of 109-29). Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-07 (as measured between the weekly2005 high of 119-30 and this year's current weekly low of 104-31) in confluence with the contract high of 114-08. A breakout to new contract highs could allow December T-bonds to make a run for the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-06 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 124-10 and the 2004 multi-year low of 103-02). The December NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds support at the September low of 1-19 (premium T-bonds) followed closely by the double bottom on the daily chart between the August 17th low of 1-10 and the June 12th low of 1-09. If the December NOB spread hits a new low it should trade at even-money fairly quickly. Further support is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-15.5 premium T-notes (as measured between the weekly 2003 low of 5-20 premium T-notes and the weekly 2006 high of 5-07 premium T-bonds). Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 2-22 (as measured between the September high of 3-11.5 and the daily September low of 1-19). Further resistance is at the September high of 3-11.5 followed by the daily May high of 3-22 (premium T-bonds) in confluence with the weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 3-24.5 premium T-bonds (as measured between last year's weekly high of 5-07 and this year's current weekly low of 1-13). If the rally does not end here the NOB spread could trade back above the 5-00 mark again. Open Interest is at a five month low. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in October. Commercial interests are holding their smallest net long position since December. Large traders are holding their smallest net short positions since February of 2006. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since December.

December T-Notes find near term support at last month's low of108-12.5 (T-notes have made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107-31 (as measured between the daily contract low of 103-04 and the contract high of 110-31). After that the market could slip down to the daily August low of 106-12 or the current daily Fibonacci.618 retracement at 106-04 (as measured between the daily contract low of 103-04 and the contract high of 110-31). If T-notes do not stabilize in here they could drop to the daily contract low of 104-18. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-00 (as measured between the contract high of 110-31 and the daily September low of 108-12.5). Further resistance is at the contract high of 110-31. If December T-notes hit a new contract high they could quickly test the weekly September high of 111-13.5. If this high is exceeded look for a price surge to the weekly 2005 high of 114-16 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114-18.5 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 121-03 and the weekly 2004 low of 104-01). Open Interest is at the lowest level since mid-March. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to decline in the first half of October and rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since mid-July. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their smallest net long position since early July. Small traders are holding their smallest net short position since late March.

International Bonds - December Canadian 10-year Bonds find near term support at the September low of 111.25 (CGBs have made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months). Further support is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.69 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of 108.83 and the weekly September high of 113.70). After that CGBs could slide to the contract low of 109.06. Near term resistance is located between the daily September high of 113.22 and the weekly September high of 113.70. Further resistance is at a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 114.36 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 117.78 and this year's current weekly low of 108.83) followed by this year’s current weekly high of 114.93.

December Euro Bunds find near term support at the September low of 112.03 (bunds have made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for three consecutive months).  Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 111.47 (as measured between the contract low of 109.30 and the daily September high of 114.98). After that Euro bunds could decline to the contract low of 109.30. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.85 (as measured between the daily September high of 114.98 and the daily September low of 112.03). Further resistance is at the daily September high of 114.98. After that bunds find technical resistance at an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 115.36 (as measured between the 2006 weekly December high of 118.88 and this year's current weekly low of 109.66) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 115.37 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 124.60 and this year's current weekly low of 109.66). If the rally does not end here Euro bunds could soar to this year's current weekly high of 116.89.

December long gilts find near term support at the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 106.46 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of 102.90 and this year’s current weekly high of 108.66) followed by the daily September low of 106.29. Further support is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 105.10 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of 102.90 and this year’s current weekly high of 108.66).  After that gilts could decline to this year’s current weekly low of 102.90.  Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 107.86 (as measured between the daily September high of 108.83 and the daily September low of 106.29). Further resistance is at the contract high of 108.83. A breakout to new contract highs could allow gilts to rally to the weekly December high of 110.48.

December Australian 10-year Bonds find near term resistance at last week's high of 94.09. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.185 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 95.03 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665) in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.22 (as measured between the weekly September high of 94.565 and this year's current weekly low of 93.665). If the rally does not terminate here Aussie bonds could challenge this year's current weekly high of 94.405. Near term support is at last week's low of 93.93 (Aussie bonds have only broken a previous week's low once in the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 93.83 (as measured between the daily contract low of 93.665 and the daily July high of 94.09). Further support is at the daily contract low of 93.665. A break to new lows should keep Aussie bonds moving toward the 2002 low of 93.40.

December JGB's find near term support at the daily September low of 134.34 followed closely by the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 134.28 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of 130.76 and this year’s current weekly high of 136.45). Further support is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 132.93 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of 130.76 and this year’s current weekly high of 136.45). If JGB’s do not recover from this level they could slip to this year’s current weekly low of 130.76 Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 135.61 (as measured between the daily September high of 136.40 and the daily September low of 134.34). Further resistance is at the contract high of 136.40. A breakout to new contract highs could send the market on up to a major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 137.29 (as measured between the weekly 2005 high of 141.35 and the 2006 multi-year low of 130.71). If JGBs make it past this level they could challenge this the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 139.57 (as measured between the 2003 all-time high of 145.04 and the 2006 multi-year low of 130.71).

Currencies - The US Dollar Index finds important support at the new all-time low of 77.58. Further support is located at the psychological 75-cent level. If this low gets taken out the greenback could collapse to the psychological 70-cent mark quickly. Near term resistance is at last week’s high of 78.57 (the December US dollar index has made lower weekly highs for five out of the last six weeks and lower weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for over a month. A break above a previous week’s high combined with a close above the 18-day Moving Average could signal a potential trend reversal and the greenback up to the psychological 80-cent level. Further resistance is at the August high of 82.085. If the buck does not stop here it could tag a cluster of technical resistance between the weekly June high of 83.26, a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 83.29 (as measured between the 2005 weekly high of 92.53 and this year's new all-time low of 77.58),and an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 83.45 (as measured between the October 2006 weekly high of 87.08 and this year's new all-time low of 77.58). After that the greenback may try to test this year’s current weekly high of 85.25. Open Interest is at the highest level since early August. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should decline in October. Commercial interests are aggressively buying US dollars again and are holding a near record net long position. Large traders are holding a near record net short position.  Small traders are holding a moderate size net short position.

The Canadian Dollar finds near term resistance at the new all-time high of 1.0095 (all-sessions). Further resistance may be at the psychological 1.05 level. Near term support is at last week's low of .9913 (the Canadian dollar has made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .9763 (as measured between the daily August reaction low of .9226 and the new all-time high of 1.0095).  Further support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .9558 (as measured between the daily August reaction low of .9226 and the new all-time high of 1.0095). If the “looney” does not stabilize here it could decline to the August low of .9226. Open Interest is at the lowest level since April. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the ”looney” is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar should trade in a choppy range in October. Commercial interests are holding a new record size net short position. Large traders are holding a new record size net long position.  Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

The Australian Dollar finds near term resistance clustered between last week's new contract high of .8860 (all-sessions), the weekly July high of .8871 and the weekly 1989 high of .8880. A breakout to new contract highs could allow the market to hit the psychological 90 cent mark almost immediately. If the rally doesn't end here the market could eventually trade at the psychological 95-cent level. Near term support is at last week's low of .8581 (the Australian dollar has made higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 84 cents (as measured between the daily contract low of .7657 and the daily September high of .8860). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8117 (as measured between the daily contract low of .7657 and the daily September high of .8860). If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the daily contract low of .7657 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move decline in the first half of October and rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are starting to increase the size of their small net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are starting to increase the size of their small net long position. Small traders are holding a very small net long position.

The British Pound The December British pound finds near term resistance at the daily September high of 2.0433 (all-sessions). A close above this level could allow sterling to challenge the contract high of 2.0593 or even this year’s current weekly high of 2.0636. A breakout to new contract highs could allow the market to make a run for the psychological 2.20 area. Near term support is at the daily September low of 1.9831. Further support is at the daily August low of 1.9586. A breach of this support could cause a decline to a major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.9265 (as measured between the weekly 2005 low of 1.7046 and this year's current weekly high of 2.0636) or even this year's current weekly low of 1.9183. Open Interest is at the lowest level since July of 2006. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is overbought on the daily and monthly charts. The pound has a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June of 2006. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since July of 2006.  Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since April 2006.

The Swiss Franc finds near term resistance at last week’s two and a half year high of .8650. Further resistance is at the 2004 high of .8892.  If this high is conquered look for a test of the 1995 high of .9038. Near term support is at last week's low of .8555 (the Swiss franc has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8452 (as measured between the contract low of .8132 and the new contract high of .8650). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8330 (as measured between the contract low of .8132 and the new contract high of .8650). If the Swissie does not stabilize here it could decline to the minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8235 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of .7979 and last week’s two and a half year high of .8650) in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8229 (as measured between the weekly 2005 double bottom low of .7548 and last week’s two and a half year high of .8650). Open Interest is at the lowest level since April. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swissie is still on the daily and weekly charts.

The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually erodes slowly in October. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since May of 2006. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since June of 2006. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since December.

The Euro Currency finds near term resistance at last week’s new all-time high of 1.4300. Further resistance is at the psychological 1.50 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 1.4081 (the Euro has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the daily July high of 1.3906 (old resistance) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.3956 (as measured between the daily August low of 1.3399 and the new all-time high of 1.4300). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3743 (as measured between the daily August low of 1.3399 and the new all-time high of 1.4300). If the Euro does not stabilize here it could decline to the daily August low of 1.3399 (all-sessions) followed closely by the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 1.3329 (the Euro currency has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since March 2006).

Open Interest is at a multi-month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.

Seasonally, the Euro should trade a bit lower in October. Commercial interests are holding a moderate size net short position. Large traders are holding a moderate size net long position. Small traders are currently neutral on the Euro.

The Japanese Yen finds near term resistance at the weekly August spike high of .008995. A breakout above this high could cause a surge to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009185 in confluence with the weekly 2006 high of .009217. Further resistance is at the psychological .009500 area. Near term support is at last week's low of .008709 (the yen has only broken a previous week's low once in the last eleven weeks on the weekly continuous chart). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008561 (as measured between the contract low of .008235 and the current contract high of .009089). If the yen slips past this retracement it could decline to the daily contract low of .008235. A break to new contract lows could pressure the market down to the psychological .008000 mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since July 2006. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways in October.

Commercial interests are the most bearish on the yen that they have been since December. Large traders are the most bullish since the summer of 2006. Small traders are holding a small net long position.

Metals - Gold finds near term resistance at the new nearly twenty-eight year high of $752.80 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological $800 mark. If the rally does not end here gold just might challenge the 1980 high of $875.00 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $729.20 (December gold has made higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the daily February and April highs of $718.00 (old double top resistance area) followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $714.10 (as measured between the daily August low of $651.60 and the current contract high of $752.80). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $690.30 (as measured between the daily August low of $651.60 and the current contract high of $752.80). If gold does not stabilize here it could decline to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $659.00 (gold has closed above the monthly 18-bar Moving Average every single month for six consecutive years!) or even the daily August low of $651.60 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gold is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move lower in October. Commercials are holding their biggest net short position since October of 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their largest net long position since then. Small traders are holding a neutral net long position.

Silver finds near term resistance at last week’s multi-month high of $14.00 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily April high of $14.565 (all-sessions). A rally above this high could send December silver up to the contract high of $15.30 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $13.325 (December silver has made higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for the last month. If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $12.30 (as measured between the contract low of $11.245 and the daily September high of $14.00). Further support is at the contract low of $11.245 (all-sessions). A break to new lows could send silver right to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $10.785 (as measured between the 2001 low of $4.015 and the 2006 multi-decade high of $14.97). Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is near overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.  Seasonally, silver should drop in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since April 2003. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since the summer of 2003. Small traders are neutral on silver.

Copper finds near term resistance at last week's high of 369.80 (all-sessions) followed closely by the contract high of 370.20 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could send December copper running for the psychological four dollar mark. If copper does not stop there it could test last year's high of 416.00 (all-sessions) on the weekly continuous chart. Near term support is at last week's low of 358.30 (December copper has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for the last month. If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 329.55 (as measured between the August low of 304.70 and the daily September high of 369.80). Further support is at the August low of 304.70 (all-sessions). If this low is breached December copper could hit the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 288.50 (as measured between the contract low of 238.00 and the contract high of 369.80). Open Interest is at the highest level in nearly two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to trade sideways in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since July of 2006. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a net long copper position for the first time since March of 2006.  Small traders are holding the biggest net short position in years.

Energies - Crude Oil finds near term resistance at the new contract high of $83.76 (all-sessions) followed by the weekly September all-time high of $84.10 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological ninety dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $78.44 (November crude oil has made higher weekly lows for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $74.30 (as measured between the August low of $68.46 and the current contract high of $83.76). Further support is at the August low of $68.46 (all-sessions). If the August low gets taken out the market could plummet to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $62.96 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of $49.90 and the current all-time high of $84.10). Open Interest is at a one month low.

The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should tread water for the first half of October and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since the Spring. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders have remained neutral on crude oil.

Heating Oil  finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of 228.25 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could propel this market up to the psychological 2.50 level rather quickly as it would be trading at a new all-time high. Near term support is at last week's low of 216.85 (November heating oil has made higher weekly lows for four out of the last five weeks) in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 216.50 (as measured between the August low of 197.50 and the current contract high of 228.25) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed below for the last month. If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 209.25 (as measured between the August low of 197.50 and the current contract high of 228.25). After that the market may challenge the monthly September low of 205.84 (heating oil has only broken a previous month’s low one time since January). If last month’s low is broken November heating oil will likely challenge the daily August low of 197.50 (all-sessions). Open Interest is near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that heating oil is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, heating oil should trade sideways in the first half of October and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in several years. Large traders are holding a record net long position.  Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since the summer of 2004.

Natural Gas finds near term support at the September 20th reaction low of 6.700 followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 6.667 (as measured between the contract low of 6.230 and the daily September high of 7.374). Further support is at the contract low of 6.230 (all-sessions). If November natural gas hits a new contract low it could slide to this year’s current weekly low of 5.192 (all-sessions).

Further support is at the psychological 5.000 mark. Near term resistance is at the daily September high of 7.374 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 7.399 (as measured between the contract high of 9.290 and the current contract low of 6.230). If the market can clear this price barrier it could rally to the daily August high of 8.115 (all-sessions) in confluence with current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.121 (as measured between the contract high of 9.290 and the current contract low of 6.230) followed by this year’s current weekly high of 8.230 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the November

2006 weekly high of 9.050 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the lowest level since early May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that natural gas is nearing oversold on the monthly chart. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to trade sharply higher in October. Commercial interests have increased the size of their record size net long position. Large traders have increased the size of their record size net short position.  Small traders are holding a neutral size net long position.

Meats - Live Cattle finds near term resistance between last week's high of 101.10 and the contract high of 101.45. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 102.92 or even the 2003 all-time high of 103.60. If cattle can make it past this level it could cause a stampede of buying to take it to the psychological 110 area. Near term support is at the September low of 98.15. Further support is at the August spike low of 96.50. If this low is taken out December cattle could hit the double bottom June low of 94 cents. Further support is located between this year's current weekly low of 85.05 and the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.70 (as measured between the weekly 2006 low of 73.45 and this year’s weekly high of 102.92). Open Interest is at the highest level in nearly two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is nearing overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should drift sideways in October. Commercial interests are holding a moderate size net long position. Large traders are holding a sizable net long position. Small traders are holding a small net short position.

Feeders finds near term resistance at the contract high of 117.50. Further resistance is at the September all-time weekly high of 119.80. A breakout to new highs on the weekly chart could carry feeders to the psychological 130 area. Near term support is at the September low of 113.45 (January feeders have made higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for three consecutive months). Further support is located a penny lower between the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.52 (as measured between the multi-month June low of 104.50 and the current contract high of 117.50) and the daily August reaction low of 112.40. Further support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109.47 (as measured between the multi-month June low of 104.50 and the current contract high of 117.50). If the decline does not end here feeders may drop to the multi-month June low of 104.50. Open Interest has been sitting flat near the same level for several weeks. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are overbought on the weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should trade sharply higher in the first week of October and then decline for the rest of the month.

Commercials are holding the smallest net long position in four months.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since January of 2006. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since March of 2006.

Lean Hogs find near term support at last week’s low of 61.65.  Further support is at the July low of 60.95. A break below it should send hogs to this year's current weekly low of 59.10 or the October 2006 low of 58.35. If support is not found in this area the market could be doomed to visit last year’s weekly low of 53.55. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 64 cents (December hogs have made lower weekly highs for seven out of the last eight weeks). A strong close above a previous week's high could allow hogs to challenge the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 66.65 (as measured between the contract high of 74.70 and the daily September low of 61.65). If the rally doe not end here December hogs may run to the daily September high of 69.70 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 69.70 (as measured between the contract high of 74.70 and the daily September low of 61.65). Open Interest is flat.

The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to edge lower in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net long position since June.

Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since May. Small traders are holding a very large net short position.

Grains - Soybeans find near term resistance at the current contract high of $10.17 3/4 (all-sessions). A strong close above ten dollars could propel beans to the 2004 high of $10.64 (all-sessions). If this high is exceeded the market may try to tag the 1988 drought high of $10.99 1/2 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $9.70 (November soybeans has made higher weekly lows for six consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $9.36 1/4 (as measured between the August low of $8.04 1/2 and the current contract high of $10.17 3/4). Further support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.86 (as measured between the August low of $8.04 1/2 and the current contract high of $10.17 3/4). If beans do not recover at this level they may hit the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.19 1/4 (as measured between the 2005 monthly low of $4.98 1/2 and the monthly September high of $10.17 3/4) followed by the daily August low of $8.04 1/2 (all-sessions). A break below it could push November beans down to the multi-month April correction low of $7.51 1/2 (all-sessions). Open Interest is near the all-time high.

The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that beans are overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans should establish a major seasonal low at the end of October. Commercial interests are holding the largest net short position since mid-July. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding neutral on beans.

Soy Meal  finds near term resistance at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $289.90 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of $378.50 and the weekly 2004 low of $146.60) followed closely by the current contract high of $293.00 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the weekly 1997 high of $308.50 (all-sessions). If meal does not peak out in this area it may test the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $328.90 (as measured between the weekly 2004 high of $378.50 and the weekly 2004 low of $146.60). Near term support is at last week's low of $274.90 (December meal has made higher weekly lows for seven out of the last eight weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and send the market down to the daily July high of $367.10 (old resistance) followed closely by the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $265.30 (as measured between the July low of $220.50 and the current contract high of $293.00). Further support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $248.20 (as measured between the July low of $220.50 and the current contract high of $293.00).

If meal does not stabilize here it may hit the double bottom located between the daily August low of $220.70 (all-sessions) and the daily July low of $220.50 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the highest level since February. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that meal is overbought on the daily, weekly, and weekly charts. Seasonally, soy meal should rally in October. Commercials are holding a near-record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near-record size net long position. Small traders are holding a sizable net long position.

Bean Oil finds near term resistance between last week's new contract high of 40.59 (all-sessions) and the 1984 high of 41.15 (all-sessions). A breakout to new highs could carry the market to the psychological fifty-cent mark. Near term support is at last week's low of 39.07 (December bean oil has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above every day for over a month. If the market breaks last week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and decline to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 38.28 (as measured between the August low of 34.53 and the current contract high of 40.59).  

Further support is at the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 36.84 (as measured between the August low of 34.53 and the current contract high of 40.59). After that December bean oil could drop to the August low of 34.53 (all-sessions). Open Interest is at the highest level since early August. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is overbought on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Bean oil tends to decline into a major seasonal low at the end of October.

Commercial interests are holding their biggest net short position since mid-July. Large traders are increasing the size of their huge net long position. Small traders are holding their biggest net long position since February.

Corn finds near term resistance at the daily September high of $3.89 1/2 (all-sessions) in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.92 3/4 (as measured between the contract high of $4.35 and the July low of $3.24 1/2). Further resistance is at the contract high of $4.35 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $3.68 1/4 (December corn has made higher weekly lows for seven out of the last nine weeks). A break below a previous week's low could cause a pull back to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.49 1/4 (as measured between the contract low of $3.24 1/2 and the daily September high of $3.89 1/2). Further support is located between the August low of $3.26 1/2 (all-sessions) and the July low of $3.24 1/2 (all-sessions). If corn breaks to a new contract low expect a decline to the psychological three dollar area. Open Interest has quietly risen to the highest level in nearly two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is nearing overbought territory on the daily chart. The Seasonal index shows that corn should rally in the first half of October and then trade sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since October. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since January.

Oats December oats find near term resistance at the September high of $2.90 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the contract high of $2.95 (all-sessions) or even this year's current weekly high of $3.02 (all-sessions). A breakout to new contract highs could run December oats up to the psychological $3.50 mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $2.72 (December oats made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks). A break below a previous week's low could cause a pull back to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.56 3/4 (as measured between the July low of $2.63 1/2 and the daily September high of $2.90). Further support is at the daily March low of $2.37 1/2 (all-sessions) in confluence with the July low of $2.36 1/2 (all-sessions).

If these lows are broken look for a sharp break to the psychological two dollar area. Open Interest is sitting flat at a one year low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are overbought on the daily and monthly charts. Oats have a seasonal tendency to rally in the first week of October and then move sideways for the rest of the month.

Commercials are holding their smallest net short position in two years.  Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since mid-July. Small traders are holding the largest net short position in several years.

Wheat finds near term resistance at last week’s new all-time high of $9.61 3/4 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the psychological ten dollar level. A strong close above ten bucks could even inspire a run to the psychological eleven dollar mark. Near term support is at last week's low of $8.70 (December wheat has made higher weekly lows for seventeen out of the last eighteen weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over two and a half months). If the market breaks a previous week's low and the 9-day Moving Average closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could pull the market down to the September low of $7.94 (December wheat has made higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs for five consecutive months). Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $7.67 1/2 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.53 1/2 and the current contract high of $9.61 3/4) followed closely by the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $7.51 3/4 (as measured between this year’s current weekly low of $4.12 and the current all-time high of $9.61 3/4) in confluence with the 1996 high of at $7.50 (old resistance). If the decline does not end here December wheat may trade at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.47 1/2 (as measured between the daily April low of $4.53 1/2 and the current contract high of $9.61 3/4). Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that wheat is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should trade sideways in October. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long wheat position in nearly four months. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since mid-July. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position on record.

Softs - Coffee finds near term resistance at last week’s high of 134.85. Further resistance is at the 2005 high of 137.00. A breakout above this high could cause a run for the 1999 high of 145.00 followed closely by the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 147.15 (as measured between the 1997 all-time high of 318.00 and the 2001 multi-decade low of 41.50).

Near term support is at last week's low of 126.50 (December coffee has made higher weekly lows for ten out of the last twelve weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for several weeks). Further support is clustered between the daily August high of 125.80 (old resistance), the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 125.35 (as measured between the contract low of 110.00 and last week’s high of 134.85), and the daily June high of 124.75 (old resistance). If coffee does not stabilize in this price zone it could hit the decline does not end here December wheat may trade at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 119.50 (as measured between the contract low of 110.00 and last week’s high of 134.85). Further support is located between the daily September low of 115.30 and the daily August low of 115.00. Open Interest is near an all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is nearing oversold on the daily, weekly, and weekly charts. Seasonally, coffee should trade sideways in October. Commercials are holding their biggest net short coffee position since April 2005. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then.  Small traders are only slightly bullish on the coffee market.

Cocoa finds near term resistance at last week's high of $2,054 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the contract high of $2,164 followed closely by the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2,180 (as measured between the 2003 high of $2,420 and the 2004 low of $1,299).  If cocoa can overcome this price barrier it could try to make a run for the 2003 high of $2,420 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of $1,973 (December cocoa has made higher weekly lows and higher weekly highs for five consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above every day for over a month. If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and decline to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,938 (as measured between the August low of $1,750 and last week's high of $2,054). Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,866 (as measured between the August low of $1,750 and last week's high of $2,054). After that December cocoa could decline to the August low of $1,750 followed closely by last year's weekly high of $1,732 (old resistance). Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is nearing overbought on the daily, weekly, and weekly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to decline sharply in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since December. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders remain neutral on cocoa.

Sugar finds near term resistance at the minor daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 10.28 (as measured between the daily July high of 10.85 and the daily August low of 9.35) in confluence with the September high of 10.31 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the daily July high of 10.85 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 10.88 (as measured between the daily March high of 11.91 and the daily August low of 9.35). If this resistance area is penetrated look for a move to the March "island reversal" high of 11.91. Near term support is at the daily August low of 9.35 followed by the contract low of 9.22. A break to new lows could cause a decline to this year’s current weekly low of 8.36 (all-sessions).

Further technical support may not be found again until the 2005 weekly spike low of 7.50. Open Interest has been flat for three months straight. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is nearing an overbought level on the daily chart while it is also nearing an oversold level on the monthly chart. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move higher in October. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in two months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since July. Small traders are holding a small net long position.

Orange Juice finds near term resistance at last week's high of 132.50 (all-sessions) in confluence with the weekly 18-bar Moving Average (OJ has not closed above the weekly 18-bar Moving Average in seven months).

A breakout above this level could cause a run to the current weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 152.60 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 209.40 and this year's current weekly low of 117.50). Further resistance is at the current weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 174.30 (as measured between last year's weekly high of 209.40 and this year's current weekly low of 117.50). Near term support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 118.95 (as measured between the current contract low of 110.60 and last week's high of 132.50). Further support is at the current contract low of 110.60 (all-sessions). A break to new contract lows could put the market on track for the psychological one dollar mark. Open Interest is at a one month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is oversold on the weekly chart. Seasonally, OJ should trade higher in a choppy fashion in October. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since January of 2006. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since June of 2004. Small traders are neutral at the moment.

Cotton finds near term resistance at the September high of 67.50 (all-sessions). Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 68.45 (as measured between the 2003 high of 84.80 and the 2004 low of 42 cents) in confluence with the contract high of 68.78 (all-sessions). If December cotton breaks out to new contract highs it could be an indication that the market is on it’s way to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 83.20 (as measured between the 1995 all-time high of 117.20 and the 2001 multi-decade low of 28.20) followed closely by the 2003 spike high of 84.80 (all-sessions). Near term support is at last week's low of 64.30 (December cotton has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above every day for over a month. If the market breaks a previous week's low and closes below the 18-day Moving Average it could cause a trend reversal and decline to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 60.83 (as measured between the August low of 56.70 and the September high of 67.50). Further support is at the August low of 56.70 (all-sessions). If December cotton drops below this level it could plummet to the contract low of 51.60. Open Interest is near a record high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is nearing overbought levels on the daily, weekly, and weekly charts. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to drop in the first half of October and then move sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding a near-record size net short position.

Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a near-record size net short position. Small traders are holding a moderate size net long position.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2007 Pearce Financial, LLC
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