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“It’s the new age of the dividend,” trumpets the latest marketing
piece of one major, mainstream investment advisory. And judging from the
rapid proliferation of yield-paying investments over the past few
years--even Microsoft now pays something--Wall Street is more than ready
to meet the demand.
Typically, the Street’s
conversion to income investing comes after half a decade of powerful
profits for everything from bonds to real estate investment trusts (REITs).
Even utility stocks--which were battered by an historic meltdown in
business fundamentals earlier this decade--have turned in a blistering
performance.
There are, of course,
powerful long-term factors that should keep income investing on the
front burner for years to come. Not the least of these is the rising
cost of living, which has become a particularly acute problem for those
in retirement or those at the end of their earning years.
The generation of
workers that came of age in the glory years of American
industrialization in the last century still enjoy substantial pension
and medical benefits, paid for by their former employers. But many of
these companies are less financially secure than ever, and in fact blame
such costs for their plight. Airlines and big automakers are just two of
the most notorious industries working overtime to reduce their
liability.
As for those of us
still in the labor force, only members of Congress, former presidents,
CEOs and a handful of other elite professions enjoy such to-the-grave
retirement security. For everyone else, how we’ll live in the future
depends on how well we save and invest.
THE GROWTH IOU
When you buy a growth
stock that pays no yield, you’re essentially taking their IOU for
their future success. Back during the late 1990s, this hardly seemed to
be a problem with blue chip stocks appreciating 20 percent and more a
year, and the Nasdaq doing even better year after year. In fact, the
popular financial media was rife with opinion pieces extolling the
virtues of a new era of self-controlled savings, and ridiculing the old
system of guaranteed pensions.
Many advisors also
scorned the strategy of collecting dividends. One who stands out in my
memory was H. Bradlee Perry, who went so far as to suggest that even
those depending on yield should sell their utilities and other
yield-paying investments immediately. His alternative was to buy “growth”
mutual funds, selling off a chunk whenever an investor needed cash.
Stocks would keep appreciating, he assured, while income plays would
languish.
President Bush’s
proposal to largely replace the Social Security system with a private
savings plan was the logical political equivalent to the philosophy of
eschewing the sure thing for supposedly assured growth. The
administration argued that giving individuals control over their
contributed funds would only allow them to make better returns than the
government’s guarantee.
Moreover, it would help
free American corporations from the burden of having to provide pensions
and other retirement benefits, making them more competitive against
foreign rivals.
Of course, as has been
painfully demonstrated since, making capital gains in the stock market
is anything but a predictable business. We have seen powerful gains in
many off their late 2002-early 2003 lows. But many of the stocks counted
on in the 1990s to lead a new era of growth--Enron, WorldCom, etc.--have
vanished in a puff of smoke. Instead, it’s the tried and true high
yielders that have emerged as Wall Street’s darlings. In short, income
investors have made back the bear market losses and more, while the
stocks offering only IOUs are still very much under water.
I haven’t heard much
lately from the advisors who urged retirees to dump income-paying stocks
and bonds. But those who foolishly followed along in the belief that
stocks could gain 20 percent a year forever are still feeling the pain.
Meanwhile, the president’s proposal to overhaul Social Security is
decidedly dead. His very promotion of change arguably robbed him of
political capital and, in the eyes of many, has left him a lame duck
with two and a half years left in his presidency.
THE NATURE OF
EXTREMES
As they say in
Colorado--which I had the pleasure of visiting last week to speak to
American Association of Individual Investor chapters in Boulder and
Denver--if you don’t like the weather, wait a minute. The same thing
can definitely be said about the US stock market.
We’re currently in
one of those periods where investors are more enamored of the bird in
hand, i.e. dividends, than of the two birds in the bush, or the
potential for capital gains. A stock paying a 10 percent yield is viewed
far more favorably than one offering the IOU of even 40 percent annual
growth potential.
It’s logical that
investors would attach some premium to safety and reliability. In this
market, however, the quest for the super yield has trumped even these.
Even the most conservative investors are looking to buy the biggest
current yield numbers they can find.
One comment I’ve
heard over and again from readers is they “don’t have time to wait”
for growth. Many now won’t even look at something yielding 5 to 6
percent, even if earnings and dividends are growing explosively. But
they will latch onto something with a 10 percent yield, and with far
less scrutiny.
I’ve seen that most
graphically with my recommended Canadian trusts in my newsletter
Canadian Edge (http://www.canadianedge.com).
As much as I want to talk about secure trusts yielding 6 to 8 percent
and growing cash flows and yields like gangbusters, many readers only
want to buy trusts yielding 12 percent and higher, often without a
serious examination of the business fundamentals.
In my opinion, this
obsession with big current yield numbers--at the exclusion of all
else--hasn’t yet become as irrational as the growth craze of the late
1990s. But we’re getting there rapidly. Lost on today’s yield
chasers is the fact that high current yields have historically been a
warning of higher than average risk. More worrisome still, many have
become oblivious even to the fact that a dividend cut will do severe
damage to principal.
With the US and global
economy humming merrily along at present, the risk of dividend cuts
market wide is as low as it’s been in decades.
For example, utilities
as a group remain in a debt-slashing and risk-cutting mode. REITs are
enjoying a revival of rents for everything from apartments to office
buildings. Despite huge and rising levels of debt, actual default rates
are well under control, boosting banks. And soaring energy prices have
kept energy trusts flush with cash.
Unfortunately, there
are still myriad high yield traps for the unwary. And when one is
sprung, the result is often wholesale panic in the marketplace, as yield
chasers stream for the exits. The fact that many of these buyers had no
clear idea of what kind of business was paying the dividends only
increases the level of fear and volatility.
That was clearly the
case for tanker stocks over the past year.
Business is clearly
very strong for this group, with demand for energy soaring globally and
supplies stretched thin in all but a very few places. And shipping
companies have been extremely generous with their cash flow.
Share price
performance, however, has been abysmal since last year’s peak in the
group. The primary reason: Many yield chasers who bought them didn’t
understand that cash flows are seasonal. They bought in based on
seasonally strong cash flows, pushing up prices to extreme levels. Then,
when cash flows tapered off during the off-season, many interpreted it
as something gone awry and sold en masse.
Selling and falling
prices, of course, panicked other investors, who then joined the
sellers. And the result was a calamitous crash in a group that remains
healthy on the business fundamentals.
Some Canadian oil and
gas producers could wind up following the same path. For the past
several years, the relentless rise in energy prices has masked a
parallel trend of rapidly rising production costs, and even the weakest
trusts have been able to hold or even increase distributions.
The first quarter 2006
collapse in natural gas prices was the first shock to this group and has
already triggered a dividend cut at gas-heavy trust SHININGBANK (TSX:
SHN.UN, OTC: SBKEF). And as long as gas prices remain in the $6 to $7
per million Btu range, there’s the distinct possibility for more
price-depressing payout reductions. Damage will get far worse if oil
prices should follow gas lower, as many are now predicting.
For those who’ve
followed tankers and oil and gas producer trusts as businesses, these
cycles are no surprise. The stronger players in both groups will weather
the current storm and emerge in even better shape to ride what’s still
likely to be several more years of an energy bull market.
As I’ve written many
times before, we’re still not seeing anything approaching the
conservation, switch to alternatives, new conventional reserve
discoveries or slowing economic growth that ultimately broke the
commodities bull market of the 1970s. And until we do, energy stocks
have a bright future. But again, despite this bullish long-term picture,
heedless yield chasers will still be in constant danger of taking a
portfolio haircut.
Then there’s the
question of interest rates. We’ve already seen a spike up over 5
percent on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, the very threat of
which triggered massive though short-lived meltdowns in income
investments across the board. Here in May 2006, the market’s reaction
to that breakout is decidedly ho-hum. There’s been some selling, but
for the most part yield investments are holding firm, including those
that took the biggest knocks following rate spikes in summer 2003,
spring 2004 and spring 2005.
That’s one reason I
expect rates to continue rising further. Others include rising inflation
pressures, the slipping US dollar and the fact that the economy has been
able to shake off soaring oil prices and higher consumer lending rates.
There’s always a
first time for everything. But barring that, it’s inconceivable that
we won’t see a real selling wave for yield investors by the time this
upward rate cycle reverses. And again, many yield chasers are truly
oblivious to the threat.
STAYING PROTECTED
The first step to
protecting yourself in this environment is always to buy the business,
not the big yield number. Only a solid and growing business makes a
dividend secure. In contrast, there’s no guarantee a big number backed
by a shaky business won’t be cut, which in turn will drive down
principal.
Earnings season is an
ideal time to assess the strength of the businesses backing your
dividend streams. We’re currently in the middle of first quarter
releases. I’ve reviewed those for Utility Forecaster and Personal
Finance Income Portfolio picks below for subscribers.
If you’ve been buying
strong businesses all along, odds are there won’t be much in this
quarter’s slew of reports to warrant a change in your portfolio. In
fact, I’ve seen nothing yet for any portfolio picks to indicate
weakening, though a couple did fail to meet Wall Street targets.
Among the signs of a
healthy and improving business are a rising dividend backed by a low
payout ratio (generally 80 percent or lower for most industries), a
rising credit rating, solid sales and earnings growth (not including
one-time gains or losses or the impact of weather) and a pipeline of
projects slated to increase cash flows. All developments of this nature
are highlighted in my writeups for each recommendation.
As for rising interest
rates, the key is also growth. As I pointed out in the May Utility
Forecaster (available at http://www.utilityforecaster.com
as of last Saturday and now arriving in the mail), utility companies’
growth rates have dramatically increased druing the past several years,
at the same time most are cutting their debt and operating risk.
In the first quarter,
for example, there were several extremely positive upside surprises,
notably at FPL GROUP (NYSE: FPL), where an explosion in power generation
profits more than offset a weak quarter at its utility unit.
Growing businesses won’t
only avoid disastrous dividend cuts--these positive earnings move belie
the conventional wisdom that all high yielding investments get
slaughtered when interest rates rise. And growing companies can be found
in virtually any industry, so you can be diversified across sectors as
well.
Best of all, because
this market has been dominated by indiscriminate yield chasers, growing
businesses don’t command a premium over other dividend payers. If
anything they offer a discount, since investors have bid up prices of
high yielders, masking their true risk. You can literally have your cake
and eat it too.
THANK YOU, MR.
RUKEYSER
On a personal note, I
want to express my sympathy for the family of Louis Rukeyser, whom I
consider one of the real trailblazers of the investment advisory
business. I was a frequent contributing analyst to his Wall Street
Winners newsletter, which has the same publisher as my advisories. I was
also privileged to speak at no fewer than three of his investment
conferences in Las Vegas. The 2001 show was truly a memorable experience
for me, on stage at MGM Grand’s main arena in front of 10,000 people.
Mr. Rukeyser was a
major force for high standards in the investment newsletter industry, as
he was on television for all those years.
That’s a tradition
that those of us left in this business are charged to uphold.

© 2006 Roger Conrad
Editorial Archive

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