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Down
sharply one day, up just as violently the next: It’s been a wild ride
during the past several weeks and months for the markets.
For growth investors,
volatility comes with the territory. In fact, for those who dedicate
themselves to buying low and selling high, it’s often the best
possible news.
Volatility, however,
can bring quite a different reaction for income investors, who aren’t
used to seeing their holdings fluctuate wildly from day to day. The fact
that income investments have often been leading the way on particularly
violent days has been extremely disconcerting to many. More than a few
stocks, bonds, preferred stocks and mutual funds with steady reputations
and stable businesses have been up or down as much as 5 percent in a
single day.
This is the kind of
trading that typically accompanies some kind of major swing in a company’s
fundamentals, like a dividend cut. As a result, many conservative
investors have become increasingly nervous, and more than a few have
been throwing in the towel, placing their full faith in money market
funds that now yield 3 to 4 percent on average.
I’ve certainly got
nothing against holding some cash in your account. In fact, I heartily
encourage conservative income investors to keep a good chunk in this
ultimate safe haven, if for no other reason than to have on hand to snap
up bargains that appear in a falling market. Our safety-first Personal
Finance Income Portfolio (www.pfnewsletter.com)
—the model allocation is designed never to lose money—currently has
about a third of its assets in cash.
Even that much cash,
however, is far too much for the typical investor who wants to get at
least some long-term growth. And an all-cash account is little better
than stuffing all your money into a mattress and hoping your house never
catches on fire.
More to the point, a
choppy market has never been a good reason to abandon solid, long-term
positions. If you want to be an income investor, you’ve got to stick
around long enough to cash the dividend checks. That means hanging on
through market chop—even if means a few scary days—as long as your
own holdings remain solid.
The worth of any income
investment is determined by the health of the underlying business paying
the dividends and/or interest. As long as that business is growing and
financials are getting stronger, it’s going to be capable of
maintaining and increasing its distributions over time.
Put another way, when
you buy an income investment, you’re basically taking a stake in a
business. As long as that business is healthy, you’re going to keep
getting those checks—in fact, your cash payments are likely to be
increased. And as long as your cash flow stream is rising, there’s no
real reason to sell your stake in the business, i.e., the investment.
Of course, this is very
difficult to keep in mind when the price of something you own is moving
all over the map. Like most investors, when a stock I own or recommend
makes a dramatic move down, I always first assume something horrible has
gone wrong with the fundamentals.
My next task is to try
to track down what happened using a wide range of sources.
Sometimes, the
explanation is obvious. This month, for example, otherwise solid Telecom
New Zealand was beaten up when New Zealand’s Communications Minister
announced sweeping reforms of that country’s telecom system. The
proposal would force the company to open its wireline network to
competitors, presumably at a utility rate of return, for the purpose of
sparking broadband growth.
The 33 percent drop in
the share value since the proposal is because of the uncertainty about
how this plan will be carried out, the impact on the company’s profits
and, ultimately, if it will force a dividend cut. All three are big
risks, so it’s easy to see why the shares have dropped, though they
look cheap now.
More often than not
lately, though, stocks have been getting smacked for reasons that have
nothing to do with their fundamentals. Rather, the action has been due
to rampant fears about interest rates and inflation.
Back in the Greenspan
era, the Federal Reserve had built up a mystique that it was always
thinking several moves ahead, like a chess grandmaster. Wall Street
became comfortable that it knew where the economy and markets were
headed and had a clear idea of what the Fed was going to do to influence
events in the best possible way.
And rightly or wrongly,
this belief in the omniscient, omnipotent Fed was a major underpinning
of stability in the investment markets.
The Bernanke Fed,
however, has been something of a different story.
The biggest issue since
its ascendancy this year has been when the central bank would stop
raising interest rates to control inflation.
The Greenspan Fed had
given no definitive indication when it would do so; rather it just
indicated that progress was being made reigning in inflation, that the
American economy remained strong, that deficits remained a long-term
threat and so forth.
In contrast, the
Bernanke Fed has more or less given the impression that it’s looking
for signals from the economy before deciding whether to raise or lower
rates. That’s obviously what the Greenspan Fed was doing as well. The
difference is by telling Wall Street that it’s on the fence about what
to do, the Fed has lost that veneer of being one step ahead of the game.
Consequently, traders are now reacting violently to every manner of
indicator that might give an impression of which way Bernanke and
company will bend.
The Greenspan Fed, of
course, had its share of low points during its first year. The decision
to jack up interest rates in early 1987, for example, was probably the
right one when it came to controlling then-accelerating inflation and
the crash in the US dollar. But it did arguably result in the colossal
crash of Oct. 19, 1987, when Greenspan was forced to dramatically
reverse course and flood the system with money to avoid a corresponding
economic crash.
It’s also easy to
forget that Greenspan was following another legendary Fed Chairman, Paul
Volcker, who many credit with taming the inflation of the 1970s. He
survived the comparison and is more highly regarded today for his
ability to keep the American economy on the road, despite a variety of
potentially disastrous shocks that occurred during his tenure.
It’s also true,
however, that short-tenured Fed Chairmen have historically followed
long-tenured ones. The pressure of comparisons is too great. Moreover,
long periods of economic stability—such as we’ve had for nearly two
decades in the US—are often followed by volatile, stormy periods.
Greenspan’s greatest
strength was his ability as a politician. To survive in the job,
Bernanke will have to rise to at least an equal level, and that’s
impossible to handicap at this point. Until he does—or is replaced by
someone who is adept politically—the market is likely to be more
volatile than we remember it being, at least when it comes to concerns
about interest rates and inflation.
SOUND AND FURY
The key thing to
remember, however, is that the market action we’re seeing now in
response to concerns about interest rates and inflation has little or
nothing to do with whether or not you should keep holding your
yield-paying investments. For one thing, the down and up days are now
basically canceling each other out.
There are some stocks
that are down dramatically from their highs.
In the utility area,
for example, water stocks across the board have taken big hits. Natural
gas and other energy producing stocks have been weak, as investors worry
about energy prices. And any company cutting its distribution has been
taken out and shot.
As a result, for all
the sound and fury, income-oriented portfolios really haven’t
sustained that much damage. In fact, compared to the corrections of
summer 2003, spring 2004 and spring 2005— when investors feared the
benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield would hit 5 percent—this one has
been relatively mild.
What’s particularly
remarkable is that this time around the yield has hit and remains above
5 percent. And while I continue to expect more selling and lower prices,
more than a few of my favored stocks remain stubbornly above my buy
targets. At least so far, the fear factor has moved well past what we’re
actually seeing.
The main reason
volatility shouldn’t knock you off your game: With few exceptions, the
underlying businesses of the stocks we own are going strong. The
evidence is in strong first quarter earnings, which also indicate
strength ahead.
Roger Conrad is Editor
of UTILITY & INCOME

© 2006 Roger Conrad
Editorial Archive

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