Earnings
season is the time when the best companies separate themselves from the
pack. This year was no exception.
In the automobile
sector, it was the Japanese giants that dramatically outperformed their
US counterparts, particularly FORD
(NYSE: F). In the
wireless industry, AT&T (NYSE: T), VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (NYSE: VZ)
and rural-based ALLTEL COMMUNICATIONS
(NYSE: AT) stole the
show. In contrast, No. 3 company SPRINT NEXTEL
(NYSE: S) lagged well
behind.
Sprint’s second
quarter results were 38 percent below last year’s tally. Worse,
management issued an equally gloomy forecast for the rest of the year,
as its customers continue to defect to other providers as well as its
own discount plans. Customer turnover (or
churn) was a lofty
2.1 percent, a full percentage point above Verizon’s 1.1 percent rate.
Average revenue per customer plunged 6 percent and total revenue rose an
anemic 4.7 percent.
Some of the company’s
difficulties likely relate to continuing burdens taken on from the
Nextel merger. In addition to operating glitches, it’s been forced to
buy out several former Nextel affiliates at a cost of billions of
dollars to settle legal wrangles. The company did have solid growth in
data services, echoing a trend around the wireless industry and was able
to raise rates for some services. But it looks like more difficult times
lie ahead.
Sprint’s
disappointing performance is particularly noteworthy in view of the fact
that the company has long been a Wall Street favorite among US wireless
providers. The company’s plan to co-market its service with big cable
television companies has been hailed as a major potential breakthrough
for both Sprint and the cable giants, who are increasingly locked in
combat with major telecoms for all communications business.
At this point, it’s
tough to say how the company’s ill fortune will or won’t impact this
alliance. Major cable companies are reaping the benefits of bundling
their traditional entertainment services with telephone and broadband
internet in a powerful triple play. The company’s service bundles have
largely halted the defection of customers to satellite television, and
they’re proving popular in attracting customers from phone companies
as well.
The Sprint/cable
alliance was initially billed as a way for Big Cable to attack the
wireless market without investing in networks itself. The plan is for
Sprint to offer the wireless service, which would then be marketed under
cable company names as a quadruple bundle--entertainment, Internet,
phone and wireless.
“Quadruple bundle”
is exactly what major phone companies have in mind as they enter cable
television markets across the country. When completed, Verizon’s FIOS
network will be far faster than any cable TV company’s coaxial/fiber
optic-based network. Six states have already effectively opened their
markets to competition by allowing Big Tel to apply for statewide
licenses, and more are in the process. The latest to take action is New
Jersey, where Verizon competes with CABLEVISION (NYSE: CVC), COMCAST (NSDQ:
CMCSA) and TIME WARNER (NYSE: TWX).
Telecommunications
law overhaul is being hotly debated in the US Senate, with Alaska
Senator Ted Stevens as the driving force. The current bill, if passed,
would allow Big Tel to enter the cable business on a national scale,
further speeding its entry.
At this point, cable
television companies appear to have the upper hand in the wireline
market competition. Eventually, however, the ability to offer wireless
service as well is likely to prove increasingly critical, as Big Tel’s
reach in cable and broadband continue to grow. The key question will be
whether or not partnering with a wounded Sprint will be the best way to
go about it.
In the meantime, it
looks like more good times ahead for the two biggest players in US
wireless: AT&T and Verizon. The pair added 1.5 and 1.8 million
customers, respectively, in the second quarter. At the same time, both
increased average revenue per customer as they boosted data sales. Both
also continue to ramp up their range of service offerings. That points
the way to higher sales and profit margins going forward.
Unlike Sprint--which
has now spun off all wireline operations as EMBARQ (NYSE: EQ)--AT&T
and Verizon are still major players in wireline communications. Business
communications at both has accelerated since the mergers of AT&T/SBC
and Verizon/MCI, with companies gaining more business and boosting
profit margins.
In retail wireline,
Verizon’s long-term aim is to migrate customers to its FIOS network.
But it’s already boosting margins and cash flows from wireline,
posting rising revenue growth despite the loss of basic copper wire
connections. The same is true of AT&T, which continues to add more
broadband customers than it loses to local phone competition.
WRONG NUMBERS
The upshot: Second
quarter results are more evidence that both AT&T and Verizon
continue to succeed in their now decade-long transition from regional
local phone monopolies to dynamic, all-communications companies. Along
with cable giants Comcast and Time Warner, they’re increasing their
dominance of the US communications industry. Most
important: The way is
clear for them to keep getting stronger in the coming months and years.
Of course, you’re
not likely to hear my opinion repeated much in the popular financial
press or on television. For example, minutes after Verizon announced its
second quarter numbers, one well-known critic pronounced the company as
clearly in a prolonged slide, based on its loss of local phone lines
over the past year. In his words, “things were going to get a lot
worse before they get better.”
CNBC reporters
focused on Verizon’s headline earnings number, which was 26.7 percent
lower than last year’s. That figure, however, included one-time costs
this year and a gain last year. Factoring these out, profits were ahead
of both last year’s tally and Wall Street estimates.
The copper wireline
business is steadily eroding for all those who provide it. Some younger
customers particularly are cutting the cord and going only to wireless
service. Others are using voice over internet protocol services, such as
those offered by floundering VONAGE (NYSE: VG), cable companies and even
Verizon itself.
The game in local
wireline, however, has changed. Today, the major players are more
concerned with maximizing revenue per customer, squeezing out operating
costs and reducing debt and outstanding shares--with the goal of
increasing cash returns. They’re still losing local lines and will
continue to do so as new technology replaces them. But they’re more
than making up for the losses by adding revenue from Internet and long
distance services and cost cutting. And capital costs are very low,
meaning virtually all the cash flows back to them.
As a result, the only
really important number in the wireline business--cash flow--is growing
for most players. Citizens Communications (NYSE: CZN), for example,
boosted its free cash flow per share by 17 percent in the second quarter
and now pays out just
51 percent of free
cash in dividends. Other wireline companies like WINDSTREAM (NYSE:
WIN)--created from the spinoff of Alltel’s wireline operations and
subsequent merger with VALOR COMMUNICATIONS)--and OTELCO (AMEX: OTT) are
pursuing the same strategy and reaping the same rewards. So is giant
AT&T.
Verizon’s situation
is slightly different because it’s the primary driver of the
technology that will ultimately replace wireline networks entirely. The
company’s fiber to the premises or FIOS network will be the fastest
and highest capacity communications system anywhere, wholly replacing
the old copper network that’s linked the country from coast-to-coast
for a century.
As the builder,
Verizon is also taking on the expense. This it can well afford to do
given its thriving wireless business and the rising cash flow from its
own basic copper wire network. But it has complicated the performance
numbers and attracted a number of skeptics, who doubt the investment
will ever pay off.
Again, the critics
are focusing on the wrong numbers. Simply, America’s communications
needs are changing. What matters to service providers is being in the
forefront as those shifts happen.
A decade ago, another
legion of industry critics professed doubt big regional Baby Bell phone
companies would ever survive a competitive onslaught from long distance
giants and the host of startups entering the business, all of which were
supposedly smarter and more nimble. Few saw the potential of wireless
phones, let alone believed the Bells could stay afloat in that business.
Today, wireless
phones are the way the country communicates. And as the demise of Sprint
shows, it’s the Bells that dominate.
Eventually, as has
happened in Europe, Japan and Singapore, wireless will completely
saturate the market and growth will slow. Data and new services sales
will keep the gravy train running for a while after that, as it’s
starting to do in those countries. But eventually, wireline
communications--particularly broadband--will become increasingly
important, and the companies who dominate it will be the big winners.
It’s far too early
to say who those ultimate winners will be. Cable companies are enjoying
fatter profits and cash flows than ever before. And the US government
may at some point re-regulate the industry, as the European Union and
New Zealand may be starting to do. But building now is the best way to
assure a company a place at the table of the future of
telecommunications.
And no telecom is
moving as effectively to do that as Verizon.