But the actual damage
goes far deeper.
The now-fallen
Republican majority was built on a patient, relentless, state-by-state
effort galvanized by men like Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater, who
stuck to principles despite his own wipeout in the 1964 presidential
election. Sometimes the conservative movement lost ground. But over the
years, Middle America largely turned red. By the time the GOP took
Congress in the election of 1994, its power on the state and local level
all but ensured it would remain the majority for years to come.
All that hard work was
wiped out on November 7. Democrats now control a majority of state
governments after seizing control of six governorships and nine state
legislatures. The party now controls 28 governors’ mansions, both
houses of 22 state legislatures and one house in another 10. Shockingly,
candidates won by double-digit margins in former Republican strongholds
like Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio,
Oklahoma and even Kansas.
It’s way too soon to
say if this new Democratic majority will hold for more than an election
cycle or two. But it’s safe to say they control their destiny. Gaining
control of state governments, for example, means Democrats will control
future redistricting for House seats. Meanwhile, the K Street lobbying
industry--which had largely shut out Democrats for most of the past six
years--has decidedly turned blue.
WHAT CHANGED FOR
UTILITIES
Anytime a political
tsunami like this hits, there are repercussions in Corporate America.
This time around, several industries could come under pressure from
Congress, including big pharmaceutical companies, health care providers
and oil and gas producers.
High-profile companies
like WAL-MART STORES (NYSE: WMT) may also take a hit. Also, we’re
likely to see efforts to regulate CO2 emissions blamed for causing
global warming.
Fortunately for
investors in these sectors, whatever Congress does will be constrained
by the remaining 49 Republicans in the Senate.
And there’s always
the presidential veto, which was almost never used in the first six
years of the Bush administration. In addition, many--if not most--of the
new Democrats elected to Congress this time around fit the description
of the Reagan Democrats of an earlier era. Virginia Senator-elect Jim
Webb, for example, actually worked in Reagan’s cabinet.
It’s true that no
incumbent Democrat lost on Tuesday and there are a lot of holdovers from
the last Congress. Most of the key House and Senate committee
chairmanships will go to these old-timers, some of whom will operate
quite differently from the previous chairmen. But with recently
re-elected Joe Lieberman basically holding the balance of power in the
Senate, it’s hard to imagine a new era for socialism.
That’s very good news
for utilities, which rank among the most highly regulated companies in
America. Utes always have a lot riding on elections. And while some are
vulnerable after the voting this time around, most came through with few
worries.
On the national level,
the election changed little for utilities.
Energy policy is still
set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), still controlled
by a 3-to-2 Republican majority by virtue of holding the White House.
Ditto the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which sets national
regulation for communications companies.
Moreover, while they’ve
opposed industry on some issues, the Democrats on both the FERC and FCC
have a reputation for being fair-minded. On the AT&T (NYSE:
T)/BELLSOUTH (NYSE: BLS) merger, for example, the two Democrats on the
FCC are demanding some conditions along the lines of the AT&T/SBC
deal that they voted for. But both are generally seen as willing to
ultimately grant approval.
As for legislation, the
previous one-party Congress passed two editions of energy legislation,
including the landmark package that eliminated the 1935 Public Utility
Holding Company Act. Speculation is high the new Congress will want to
pass additional taxation onto the oil and gas industry, while granting
subsidies to alternative energy.
It’s far more likely
we’ll see affirmative action for wind and solar and symbolic rather
than truly punitive moves against Super Oils.
And even in a worst
case, it’s difficult to see what Washington can really do to that
group. AES CORP (NYSE: AES) and FPL GROUP (NYSE:FPL) remain the leaders
in developing wind production in the US.
CHEVRON (NYSE: CVX) and
TOTAL (NYSE: TOT) are my favorite Super Oils. One Super Oil that may
have trouble is BP (NYSE: BP), which has developed numerous safety and
operational difficulties this year, particularly in the US.
Past Democratic
Congresses have been unrelentingly hostile to nuclear energy. This one,
however, is likely to be starkly different, largely because of growing
concerns about global warming and the fact that nuclear is the only
realistic alternative to fossil fuels when it comes to mass production
of electricity.
In any case, incentives
to build new nuclear plants and to continue running older ones are
firmly embedded in national energy policy. It would take an action by
Congress approved by the president to wipe it out, and that doesn’t
seem likely.
On the other hand,
increased penalties for not burning coal cleanly are virtually certain,
and will be difficult for Congressional Republicans to block or
President Bush to veto. In fact, the courts may settle this issue long
before the Democratic Congress has a chance to. That’s a pretty good
reason to ease up on the more vulnerable big coal guys like AMEREN
(NYSE: AEE) and ALLEGHENY ENERGY (NYSE: AYE).
Last summer, the
current Congress made a last ditch attempt to pass comprehensive
communications legislation to update the 1996 Telecom Act. They
ultimately failed in the US Senate, in part due to the debate over net
neutrality, or whether all comers have the right to use any broadband
Internet network.
On one side of that
debate are Big Telecom and Big Cable, who want the right to earn big
returns as they construct state-of-the-art networks. On the other are
Internet giants like GOOGLE (NSDQ: GOOG) and MICROSOFT (NSDQ: MSFT), who
don’t want to pay more to move their products and services.
Conventional wisdom is
that the incoming Democrats will side with the Microsofts against the
communications network owners. But as I’ve pointed out in Utility
& Income, that’s not necessarily the case, as many House Democrats
joined Republicans in resoundingly defeating net neutrality provisions
earlier this year.
We’ll probably see
some sort of compromise on this issue in the new Congress, allowing
network builders like VERIZON (NYSE: VZ) to earn a decent return on
their investments and ensuring open access.
Anything else seems
doomed to fail, in which case we’ll just have the status quo. That
would be OK with Verizon, which continues to expand its FiOS network
rapidly. At last count, the company controlled 5.5 million of the 6
million fiber optic connections in the US, and that advantage continues
to widen.
The one area where
utility investors--and indeed all income investors--could be affected on
the national level is with tax rates. Specifically, under current law,
the cut in the maximum rate on long-term dividends to 15 percent is
slated to sunset after 2010, unless it’s extended. That seems
considerably less likely under a Democratic Congress.
The silver lining here
is US income investments in general have never really priced in this tax
advantage, in large part because it’s never been viewed as permanent.
As a result, if the lower rate is not renewed, there should be
relatively little fallout on share prices.
Conceivably, the
Democrats could try to repeal the tax outright, given their avowed goal
of closing the yawning federal deficit. But they’d likely face stiff
resistance from the remaining Republicans in Congress as well as a veto
threat, making it far easier simply to let the rate expire.
It’s also not wholly
out of the question that Democrats could be convinced to support a lower
rate on long-term dividends in some form. For example, US Democrats’
counterpart in Canada--the minority Liberal Party--has emerged as the
ruling Conservatives’ chief critic about the new taxation of income
trusts, charging the government’s broken campaign promises have
chiefly hurt small savers.
Individual savers are
the main beneficiaries from the lower dividend tax rate in the US. And
as the baby boomers age and traditional retirement income sources
shrink, the ranks of income investors are getting larger all the time.
Also, more than a few boomers supported the Democratic wave.
In any case, this is an
issue I’ll be watching closely as the new Congress irons out its
priorities. But however it comes out, it shouldn’t have an inordinate
impact on income investments, and by extension utilities.
IN THE STATES
States set utility
rates. That’s why the most important elections every year for the
sector are always on the state level. That’s especially true this
year, given that little is likely to change on the federal level.
The key position in
every state is the governor. Governors typically appoint all the members
of state regulatory commissions.
Consequently, they set
the tone for whether a state’s policy will be supportive for
utilities, or will stick it to them in order to promote lower customer
rates in the short term.
The good news
is--despite spikes in the price of natural gas in recent years--most
states are still trying to build relationships, rather than promote
confrontation. And with a few notable exceptions, utilities managed to
avoid becoming campaign issues, which would have set them up for trouble
if the election didn’t fall their way.
One race I was watching
with particular interest this time around was in Nevada. There, a
popular Republican candidate nearly blew a big lead in the final days of
the campaign due to a personal scandal involving a Las Vegas cocktail
waitress, but eventually won the governor’s mansion by a narrow
margin.
This race was
potentially important for the state’s dominant electric utility SIERRA
PACIFIC RESOURCES (NYSE: SRP), which has been able to recover much of
its financial strength thanks to favorable regulation in recent years. A
Democratic upset wouldn’t necessarily have upset the apple cart. But
the Republican victory does ensure continuity, and hence more progress.
The day after the vote,
state regulators approved the ute’s $3.7 billion long-term plan to
build new power plants and transmission lines to meet Nevada’s
burgeoning power demand. That means an expanding rate base for the
company and financial stability--the formula for a return to investment
grade status and eventually to begin paying a dividend. That may still
be a year or more off. But the stock will appreciate greatly along the
way.
Another state where
utilities won big was California, where incumbent Republican Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger cruised by appealing to the state’s majority
Democrats and Independents. Under the Governator, regulation has
dramatically improved for the state’s energy and water utilities, as
well as for communications companies.
That should now
continue.
Utilities are exhaling
in Florida, where Republican Charlie Crist won a comfortable victory to
succeed Jeb Bush as governor. Florida has historically had a strong
relationship with its utilities, and that doesn’t appear to have
changed. Neither will relations in any other southern state, with the
possible exception of Arkansas. Even there, however, ENTERGY (NYSE: ETR)
has managed to keep out of the limelight for the most part, which should
keep it in good stead with that state’s incoming Democratic governor.
Outside of Arkansas,
the other states where governors’ mansions went red-to-blue should all
be watched. In Colorado, XCEL ENERGY (NYSE:XEL) has had a positive
relationship with the Republican-appointed commission in recent years.
But its focus on alternative energy and conservation should serve it
well under the incoming Democratic one.
Massachusetts is also
unlikely to do a 180-degree turn on what have become stable
utility/regulator relations.
Ohio’s market is now
deregulated. Conceivably, regulators appointed by the state’s new
Democratic governor could make things more difficult for FIRST ENERGY
(NYSE: FE), though the company has come a long way toward repairing its
image. In New York, power producers aren’t too concerned about radical
action from incoming governor Elliott Spitzer. But transmission and
distribution utilities like CONSOLIDATED EDISON (NYSE: ED) and
ENERGYEAST (NYSE: EAS) could have a tougher time of it.
Maryland and Illinois
are easily the most problematic states for their biggest utilities. In
Illinois, both the defeated Republican challenger and victorious
Democratic incumbent supported extending a retail customer rate freeze,
despite a quantum leap in wholesale power prices following the recent
capacity auction. That’s the same formula that drove PACIFIC G&E
(NYSE: PCG) into bankruptcy in California in 2001, and nearly put EDISON
INTERNATIONAL’S (NYSE:EIX) utility unit Southern California Edison
into Chapter 11 at the same time.
In this case, such a
feel-good move would likely trigger bankruptcy for the state’s
regulated transmission and distribution utilities owned by Ameren and
EXELON (NYSE: EXC). Neither holding company will file Chapter 11
and--with regulated Commonwealth Edison only a tiny portion of its
profits--the impact would be relatively minor on Exelon in any case.
Ameren, however, has a larger portion of its business in Illinois and is
therefore a good deal more vulnerable.
The greatest risks
probably lie with the utilities operating in the state of Maryland,
where the GOP was basically wiped out this week.
Like Exelon in
Illinois, CONSTELLATION ENERGY’S (NYSE: CEG) exposure to the state is
limited, but is nonetheless enough to hurt it if the climate turns too
negative. POTOMAC ELECTRIC (NYSE: POM), meanwhile, is much more exposed
to its regulated utility in the state.
Before the election,
Maryland’s Democratic-dominated legislature was locked in battle with
defeated Governor Bob Ehrlich over the issue of utility rates. The state’s
rate freeze was expiring and regulated utilities were asking for massive
rate increases to pay for higher wholesale power costs.
That battle has now
been resolved in favor of the Democrats. As a result, times may get
tough for both Constellation and Potomac. At the least, it looks like
they’re not going to recover their purchased power costs in a timely
way.
SUMMING UP
Whether we’re talking
about a state government, national body or foreign state, a change in
the ruling regime always brings uncertainty. We won’t really know what’s
going to happen to utilities or any other sector until several months
down the road.
Based on what we’ve
seen so far, however, the positive trends in regulation that began in
the depths of the utility bear market of 2001-02 should continue to hold
up. Democrats in many states have been reliable supporters of fair
treatment and utes’ financial health. Many of the newcomers show every
sign of sharing those principles.
Consequently, the only
states that truly present a clear and present danger to utility
investors are those that did so before Tuesday’s election. As long as
a utility strategy is focused on the most reliable states, investors
have little to worry about. That includes companies with large future
environmental expenditures like SOUTHERN COMPANY (NYSE: SO), which may
actually be able to grow earnings as it adds the cost of needed
improvements to its rate base.
Finally, unlike the
last time Democrats held power in the US Congress, there’s absolutely
no push for destabilizing deregulation.
In fact, having a blue
Washington is almost surely the final nail in the coffin for radical
industry restructuring. That means less uncertainty for utility
investors and greater stability.