Income investments have
reaped their share of the spoils. Utility stocks continue to push out to
all-time highs. Limited partnerships are ticking higher. Real estate
investment trusts (REITs) are soaring ever higher. The benchmark 10-year
Treasury note yield is in the middle of its range of recent years but
the bond market is generally healthy.
Of course, not every
income-producing sector has participated.
Canadian royalty and
income trusts were slammed following Conservative Party Finance Minister
Jim Flaherty’s wholly unexpected announcement he was changing the
taxation rules.
For the most part,
however, diversified income portfolios are doing well. As I’ve said,
the best strategy for income investors is to build a portfolio of
high-quality securities from a wide range of sectors.
To get income, you’ve
got to hold positions long enough to collect dividends and interest, not
to mention to avoid taxation penalties for not holding at least 90 days.
High quality is the best protection against taking an unexpected hit
with an individual selection. Owning income producers from a broad mix
of sectors is the only way to dodge those occasional bolts from the blue
that hit a particular group of stocks. Strong performance in the
undamaged sectors will almost always compensate for the weakness.
We saw that principle
most clearly demonstrated in the late, great bear market of 2000-02.
Battered by the bankruptcies of Enron and WorldCom, falling product
prices and dysfunctional deregulation and a mountain of debt, the Dow
Jones Utility Average sank 59 percent from its high in late 2000 to its
ultimate low in late 2002. And several former high flyers did quite a
bit worse.
US REITs, however, had
one of their best performance periods on record. Meanwhile, as interest
rates began to fall in 2001, the bond market also scored. So did other
fixed income plays not caught up in the utility wreck. The result:
positive performance for diversified income portfolios, despite the
spectacular crackup of one of the most popular dividend-paying sectors.
That’s all worth
noting in the wake of the most recent meltdown of a popular
income-paying sector, Canadian royalty and income trusts.
These securities have
been gaining popularity over the past several years thanks to huge
yields. Under Canadian tax law, trusts are able to pay dividends from
pre-tax cash flow rather than post-tax earnings, as is the case with
corporations.
The most popular group
by far has been the oil and gas royalty trust sector, which combines
high yields with a play on what’s been a red-hot energy sector. Rising
energy prices have pushed up oil and gas producer trusts’
distributions sharply over the past few years, and prices have followed
suit with massive gains.
All this came crashing
down after Mr. Flaherty’s Halloween night announcement that he would
begin taxing existing trusts essentially as ordinary corporations
beginning in 2011. He also stated any companies converting to trusts
after his announcement would be taxed as corporations immediately,
essentially eliminating any impetus to convert.
Flaherty’s moves came
just weeks after statements from his office praising trusts. And they’re
a 180 degree flip-flop from Conservative Party promises to leave trusts
alone during the run-up to the election last January.
Flaherty’s stated
motives are to preserve government revenues from corporate taxation.
With telecom giants like BCE (NYSE: BCE) and TELUS (NYSE: TU) announcing
plans to convert to trusts--and ENCANA (NYSE: ECA) apparently close to
doing so--some estimated the government would lose $500 million in tax
leakage, potentially threatening social programs.
To some, Flaherty is a
courageous hero, standing up to trusts and the millions of Canadians who
invest in them for the benefit of the nation’s financial future.
Unfortunately, without the capital inflows from trust investment, the
nation is already considerably poorer. In fact, more than $30 billion in
wealth has been wiped out.
Investors in Canadian
trusts have taken some hits over the past week. For those who’ve been
in them a while, the pullback represents the unwinding of profits rolled
up in recent years. For relative newcomers, it’s a pool of red ink.
The question now,
however, is not where anyone really stands in this market in terms of
profit and loss. Rather, it’s whether it makes sense to keep positions
in this sector, or to exit for greener pastures.
The only thing that
makes sense is to stick with the strategy of owning high-quality
securities from a broad range of sectors. Those with big losses in a
particular trust who can use the tax writeoff may want to do so. Those
who were caught yield chasing and now own trust weaklings may also want
to bail. And those who were overloaded on the sector have,
unfortunately, now seen why that’s never a good idea, no matter how
appealing a particular group looks.
Leaving Canadian trusts
entirely, however, is also violating the diversification strategy. For
one thing, there are many trust-like investments that are not affected
by the tax moves. These include Canadian REITs (which are still much
higher yielding than their US counterparts), power trusts and “straddle”
shares that combine debt with equity.
Second, one of the
reasons we diversify is we don’t know in advance which group is going
to outperform, and which will get hit in the coming months. In fact,
more often than not, it’s the groups that are beaten up in one quarter
that do the best the next. If you abandon a sector right after it takes
a hit, you may avoid some worry. But you’re also going to miss out on
the recovery. Meanwhile, chances are you’re going to load up on
another group that’s been performing better, but may be due for its
own pullback.
As for the Canadian
trusts themselves, there’s clearly more uncertainty ahead. The
government, for example, is considering restricting acquisitions by
trusts to deals that won’t increase share counts by more than 15
percent. That will squash small oil and gas trusts that depend on
acquisitions to offset the ongoing depletion of their fields.
Also, if oil and
natural gas prices should sink further, cash flows for producer trusts
will slip even before their fields run dry. That means the steady stream
of dividend cuts from weaker trusts will continue. This week, for
example, ADVANTAGE ENERGY (TSX: AVN.UN, NYSE: AAV) cut its dividend yet
again, as a history of massive share issues to fund expensive
acquisitions continues to catch up with it.
But there’s also
quite a lot of reason to expect a rebound, and not just in the trusts
that aren’t affected by the taxation moves.
First, trusts across
the board are already pricing in higher taxation and a lot more. Good
ones still have a lot of room to grow.
Oil and gas are still
very much in a long-run bull market. As long as there’s little
conservation, little use of alternative energies, no major discoveries
of conventional reserves and no crushing global recession--the factors
that ended the 1970s energy bull market--oil and gas prices will remain
in a robust market.
That means added value
for the oil and gas trusts that can stay healthy in the current turmoil.
My short list: ARC ENERGY (TSX:AET.UN, OTC: AETUF), ENERPLUS (TSX:
ERF.UN, NYSE: ERF), PENN WEST (TSX: PWT.UN, NYSE: PWE) and VERMILION
ENERGY (TSX: VET.UN, OTC:VETMF).
Finally, four years is
a very long time in politics. As a result, it’s still quite possible
the Conservatives’ tax proposals on trusts will be overturned.
According to recent national polls, the ruling Conservative party has
already squandered its post-election goodwill with the Canadian
electorate. In fact, outside of Alberta, the Liberals--who voted
unanimously against the Conservatives’ proposal this month to change
trust taxation--are now ahead in every province. And as the crushing of
trusts starts to impact the Alberta economy, even that support is likely
to come under pressure.
No one can make any
guarantees about what will eventually happen to Canadian trusts. But
there are more than enough reasons to keep the strongest of them as part
of a diversified income portfolio.
Here’s a brief look
at other major income investing sectors, and their outlook over the next
12 to 18 months:
UTILITIES: As I
pointed out last week, elections are always important to this still
heavily regulated group. Fortunately, most emerged from the recent
voting in good shape. SIERRA PACIFIC RESOURCES (NYSE: SRP), for example,
has won passage of its long-term investment plans in Nevada, as that
state’s regulatory climate remained favorable. The only exceptions are
in Illinois, where an extension of the rate freeze is gaining traction.
That’s a reason to dodge AMEREN (NYSE: AEE). Otherwise, as third
quarter earnings made clear, the group is in good shape. The only fly in
the ointment is valuations, which are high and rising. But for those
with investments in the sector’s best already, there aren’t many
worries.
REITs: Price is
also the biggest problem with this group as it continues to run higher.
The residential REITs are still somewhat attractive in terms of yield,
and as the environment for rents improves. The best buys are in Canada,
whose REITs are unaffected by proposed tax changes but which yield 2
percentage points more than US REITs of equivalent risk. Most commercial
REITs, including all those yielding less than 3 percent, should be sold.
BONDS: The
benchmark 10-year Treasury note remains in the mid-point of its 52-week
range. With inflation figures moderating, yields are likely to drop and
bond prices rise in the coming months. The Federal Reserve for its part
is publicly in an inflation-fighting mode, which is also calming for the
market. The best ideas are still securities of companies with improving
credit ratings, more than a few of which can be found in the utility
sector. Some of my favorite comeback companies are CMS ENERGY (NYSE:
CMS) and Sierra Pacific Resources.
RURAL TELECOMS:
These remain among the best-kept secrets on Wall Street. Third quarter
cash flows were again robust, as companies’
new services in
broadband and sometimes wireless more than offset the steady decline of
ordinary phone connections. Cash flow was further augmented by cost
cutting and debt reduction.
BIG TELECOMS: These
are also little understood, as Wall Street continues to focus on the
loss of local phone lines rather than the robust growth of businesses
that are pushing up overall results.
There’s also a
misperception that Congressional Democrats will make trouble for the
likes of AT&T (NYSE: T) and VERIZON (NYSE: VZ), but Big Tel
definitely has plenty of supporters on both sides of the aisle. Take
advantage of price dips to buy both, as well as the rural telecoms.