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Does
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS’ (NYSE: VZ) yellow pages spinoff IDEARC
(NYSE: IAR)
have any promise? Or is it destined to be a just another mediocre
company operating in a business that’s in long-term decline, throwing
off only paltry returns to shareholders?
Those are the questions
millions of investors will be asking themselves as they peruse their
November brokerage statements.
Verizon, one of America’s
most widely held stocks, has now spun off one share of IDEARC per every
20 of its own. As a result, IDEARC’s ownership base is now equally
gargantuan.
The one-for-every-20
ratio guarantees a share price high enough for institutions to own
IDEARC. Unfortunately, it’s going to create a lot of odd lots, as well
as fractional shares. Those holding 100 shares of Verizon, for example,
now own five of IDEARC. Meanwhile, anyone owning 250 shares of Verizon
now owns an even more unwieldy 12.5 shares.
In deals like these,
the issuing company usually (eventually) offers to buy up the odd lots
and fractional shares. Given the huge cash flows it generates, there’s
every reason to expect IDEARC will eventually do the same.
Unfortunately, it’s impossible to predict the timing. And with
alternatives for economically selling fractional shares few, most of us
will have no choice but to keep holding them, or else eat an exorbitant
brokerage fee.
The good news: There’s
no real reason to do anything with IDEARC shares at the moment. In fact,
there’s a very good chance odd-lot holders will be better off hanging
on even if there is an offering in the near future.
Except for those who
desperately need the money from a sale, the best idea is just to stick
with IDEARC shares.
THE CASE FOR HOLDING
First, I should
disclose that I own Verizon shares myself and have for a number of
years. Consequently, thanks to the spinoff, I’m now an odd-lot
shareholder of IDEARC.
I’m an admitted fan
of buying and holding what I believe to be undervalued companies, and I
can be a bit stubborn when it comes to sticking with them. In most
cases, that’s paid off. With Verizon, it’s been a decidedly
up-and-down situation over the years, as the company has battled fierce
competition, tough regulation and intense Wall Street skepticism as it’s
built a dominant franchise in American communications. And there’s
still a ways to go.
When Verizon completes
its FiOS network of extremely high-speed, high-capacity fiber optic
cable, it will have by far the country’s best, most advanced landline
network to go with its already leading wireless network. Spinning out
the yellow pages unit will eliminate up to $10 billion in debt from its
balance sheet, greatly enhancing flexibility.
Wall Street, however,
remains extraordinarily skeptical. Adjusting for the IDEARC’s spinoff
value of roughly $1.40 per share, Verizon shares are still well up for
the year. But they’ve lagged well behind rival AT&T (NYSE: T),
largely because of the Verizon’s much more substantial capital
spending plans.
Despite Verizon’s
strong third quarter numbers, most commentary focused only on the
company’s continuing loss of conventional copper wireline customers
and/or the cost of the FiOS buildout. That in itself is a step up from
the concerns of prior quarters, such as whether or not the company would
be able to win the necessary cable television franchises to fully
compete with the cable companies (a question, by the way, Verizon has
answered by winning franchise agreements well ahead of expectations).
In addition, the
company and other Big Tel peers are now projected to outpace Big Cable
in broadband additions next year, a marked reversal from just a couple
of years ago. It’s also a definitive answer to the charge the Verizon
and the like simply can’t compete with COMCAST (NSDQ: CMCSA) and its
ilk.
But while Verizon has
and will likely take a while longer to pan out, IDEARC may offer a more
immediate payoff. As the example of Canadian trust YELLOW PAGES INCOME
FUND (TSX: YLO.UN, OTC: YLWPF) shows, the business model is extremely
vibrant.
Yellow Pages posted
revenue growth of 33 percent in the third quarter. That paced an 11
percent increase in its distributable cash flow, the best measurement of
Canadian trusts’ profitability. At the core was steady performance for
its print advertising and traditional yellow pages. But the trust also
posted another quarter of very rapid growth for its Internet operations,
as it continues to build a presence in cyberspace.
Yellow Pages’ model
is so powerful that it’s generated cash to acquire virtually every
major print directory franchise in Canada, as well as advertising guides
for a variety of popular items such as automobiles. And, despite the
prospect of paying corporate taxes beginning in 2011, management has
pledged to maintain both its trust structure indefinitely and defend its
dividend. This it announced in mid-November along with a 6 percent
dividend increase.
To match Yellow Pages’
performance, IDEARC will have to do the same things Kohlberg Kravis
Roberts did when it first purchased the print directory business of
phone giant BCE (NYSE: BCE) and repackaged them as a vibrant trust. That
means first of all cutting costs and revving up advertising. But it also
means looking for innovative ways to boost the company’s Internet
presence, which is ultimately the future of the business.
As part of Verizon,
IDEARC was clearly not managed for growth, but rather as a cash cow
business to support its parent’s moves in wireless, business and now
broadband communications. Sales were steady, but nonetheless declined 12
percent from 2001 through 2005, while net income followed a similar
pattern.
That should change with
the likes of former Valor Communications CEO John J, Mueller as
chairman--and former presidents and CEOs of CONVERGYS (NYSE: CVG), TiVO
and INTERVOICE (NSDQ: INTV) rounding out the board of directors. The
company expects revenue to be flat next but resume growth thereafter, as
it boosts advertising sales, with a particular eye to the Internet. And
as the example of Yellow Pages’ accelerating
growth shows, things should just get better from there.
IDEARC shares may also
get a lift in coming months from a potential takeover offer. The yellow
pages business remains very competitive, particularly given the host of
rivals and potential foes on the Internet for traditional print
advertising. The best defense is economies of scale that can best
leverage the business transition to yellow pages.
IDEARC currently
publishes 1,218 directories in 35 US states and Washington. It also has
Internet pages frequented by 17.8 million visitors a month. That’s a
very strong base from which to start. And despite a surge in the share
price following a Barron’s article last month, IDEARC only trades at a
little over 10 times projected full year 2007 earnings, making it cheap
enough to attract at least some attention.
A third reason to favor
holding onto IDEARC is the potential to pay dividends. To date, there’s
been no announcement from the company on that front. And it may well be
that management will want to shepherd capital for growth, rather than
dish it out to shareholders.
On the other hand,
however, telephone advertising is a huge cash generating business. And
with Yellow Pages paying such a lofty dividend--even after the proposed
tax change to Canadian trusts is taken into account--there’s bound to
be pressure at some point to pay up.
I’m not recommending
that anyone buy IDEARC shares at this time.
Yellow Pages is a far
better vehicle, due to its high yield and proven ability to grow cash
flow at a rapid pace. BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF REASONS TO HOLD ONTO
IDEARC WHILE WE WAIT FOR AMERICA’S LATEST MAJOR COMPANY TO SHOW US
WHAT IT’S MADE OF.
THE SLOWDOWN
For most of 2006, Wall
Street has worried about a slowdown in the US economy. Now it looks like
it might be getting one, at least in some segments of the economy.
The housing market,
softening in recent months, appears to be getting even softer. The US
automobile industry is growing ever-weaker, the latest evidence FORD’S
(NYSE: F) decision to essentially leverage all of its US plant with new
secured debt. And the consumer is becoming gloomier and with some
exceptions is spending less, as WAL-MART’S (NYSE: WMT) lame
post-Thanksgiving sales attest.
With today’s
announcement of a steep drop in the Purchasing Managers Index to just
49.5 percent, even manufacturing appears to have taken a turn for the
worse. Any reading below 50 percent is decidedly negative for the
economy. Also worrisome is the fact that economists were forecasting a
reading of 51.5 percent.
Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke and the other Fed governors have been adamant in
recent statements that inflation pressures are their primary worry. And
though politicians are adept at speaking out of both sides of their
mouths, given the Fed’s recent actions there’s no reason to expect
them to do anything now but try to keep the downward pressure on
inflation.
The federal funds
futures rate is currently forecasting a rate cut by March of next year.
But despite the recent evidence of moderating growth, it still makes
sense to bet that rate cuts will come later, rather than sooner.
For income investments,
the prognosis from this is decidedly mixed.
Prices of everything
from utilities and real estate investment trusts (REITs) to limited
partnerships (LPs) and bonds arguably now at least partly reflect the
expectation that the Fed will begin cutting rates by early spring 2007
at the latest. If that doesn’t happen, there could be some reaction in
prices, especially considering the high valuations of Wall Street
favorites in these sectors.
A slowing economy could
also be devastating for income investments that are more aggressively
leveraged to growth. Junk bonds are one area that immediately comes to
mind, particularly given their attraction to indiscriminate yield
chasers. Outside of a good fund like NORTHEAST INVESTORS TRUST (NTHEX)
or comeback utility bonds, these are probably best avoided.
Tight global energy
supplies may spare Super Oils and stronger Canadian trusts from taking a
spill in the wake of slower growth, as weakness here won’t necessarily
contract worldwide demand by that much. But now red-hot office property
REITs are certainly vulnerable to a slowdown at today’s takeover
speculation-driven valuations.
The bottom line is
quality. It’s absolutely essential that everything you hold in an
income portfolio meets a very high standard as an operating business.
Sacrificing a point or two of yield will save you tenfold if things do
slow down. And you’ll do better in good times as well, as growth in
profits spurs increasing dividends.
Again, the idea is to
hold something from a wide range of sectors:
Energy utilities,
telecoms, water stocks, REITs, bond funds, preferred stocks, Super Oils,
LPs, foreign dividend payers, Canadian trusts, bank stocks, big
pharmaceuticals and so on.
If there’s weakness
in one sector, it will be offset by strength in another. Meanwhile, high
quality businesses will continue to gain strength, pushing up the
overall portfolio value year after year.
200 AND COUNTING
December 2006
marks the 200th issue of Utility Forecaster. The issue will be available
to subscribers at http://www.utilityforecaster.com
as of Saturday.
This month, I review
earnings for each of the 215 companies tracked, as well as how their
prospects changed with the November midterm elections. I also analyze
the situation with the Canadian trusts I track, particularly how they
should fare under the proposed tax changes.

© 2006 Roger Conrad
Editorial Archive

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