That emotion is, of
course, ridiculous but nonetheless very real.
And like the gambler
who keeps betting a losing streak, it’s always emotionally easier to
just hold and hope for our luck to change, rather than cutting our
losses and moving on. As a result, many--if not most--of us have a
tendency to stick too long with a losing investment. And all too often,
the losers just keep right on losing, costing us money and keeping us
from playing the games where we have a better than fair chance of
winning.
Those who rely purely
on technical indicators for buying and selling have no such problem.
They always buy when something’s going up and sell it when it goes
down. Some employ stop losses, which simply take you out of a position
that loses ground, without any need to make a decision on whether that
makes sense or not.
Unfortunately, as
income investors we don’t have that luxury. Yes, I’ve heard from
some readers that they have hard-and-fast rules for selling anything
that loses 10 percent or 20 percent from their purchase price. And if
that really works for you, more power to you.
My experience, however,
has been that such strategies leave investors vulnerable to being
whipsawed, i.e. stopped out of positions that take a temporary dive only
to shoot back up again.
That actually happens
relatively often in volatile markets, sometimes by design when traders
and market makers notice a large number of stops at a particular level
and drive prices down to take them out.
In any case, a winning
income investing strategy is incompatible with trading. And the more a
strategy resembles trading, the less effective it will be.
For one thing, to
garner a dividend, you’ve got to buy and hold at least through the
ex-dividend date--and longer than that if you want to get the
preferential 15 percent qualified dividend rate. One could conceivably
avoid the tax burden by buying and selling income investments within an
IRA. But you’d still incur commissions and a lot of headaches trying
to time entries and exits. In the end, 99 percent of us would come out
losers.
Also, one of the
greatest benefits of owning an income investment is appreciation. A
company backed by a solid business will increase its dividend over time,
and its share price will follow the payout higher. A bond or preferred
stock backed by a strengthening business will also gain ground, as the
market rewards it for increased creditworthiness.
Long-term appreciation
isn’t something you’ll get if you trade income investments. In fact,
every time you buy back a security backed by a strong business, chances
are you’ll be paying a higher price.
HOW TO STICK
How do you stick around
and avoid holding losers too long? It really boils down to two things.
First, every individual
income investment you own should be backed by a high-quality business.
Again and again, I’ve seen investors jump for the stocks with the
biggest current yields, only to be later burned when the reason for the
big number--namely big risk--became apparent.
In contrast, a good
business will always endure, even if its overall sector takes a
shellacking. You can always be confident the shares of a good business
will ultimately recover from a blow in the market place.
That was the clear
lesson from the historic 2001-02 bear market in the utility sector. At
one point, it seemed like even the strongest utilities were doomed in
the wake of the Enron bankruptcy, a chronic overbuilding of power
plants, the weakening economy, a regulatory clamp down and the industry’s
mountain of teetering debt.
A couple of years
later, however, the best were again pushing new highs. In fact, the
sector enjoyed its strongest two-year bull run in history from mid-2003
through mid-2005. A few of the industry players didn’t make it, but
those that did have thrown off incredible profits, even to investors who
got in a year or so after the late 2002 lows.
The clear lesson: If
you buy companies backed by good businesses, you’ll always be in the
game. And over the long pull, your wealth will steadily grow as the
market rewards continued growth in cash flow and dividends, regardless
of sector ups and downs.
As for sector
volatility, every income portfolio should be comprised of a mix of
investments. Here in late 2006, that means owning some power utilities,
gas utilities, telecoms, bonds and preferred stocks of strengthening
companies, real estate investment trusts (REITs), bank stocks, shares of
high-yielding conglomerates, limited partnerships (LPs), Super Oil
stocks, convertibles into stocks of good industrial companies, foreign
high-yielding stocks, foreign bonds or funds and Canadian royalty and
income trusts.
These investments hail
from a very wide range of markets. At any given time, some will be
performing well while others will lag. That will keep your overall
portfolio on generally level ground.
Further, if a
particular group or sector takes a hit from an unforeseeable event,
owning it in balance with others holds down the damage to the overall
portfolio. In fact, it’s likely the other sectors will gain as
investors stream out of the affected sector seeking high-yielding
alternatives.
That appears to have
happened this past month with Canadian trusts.
After promising in
their campaign earlier this year not to tax the trusts, the Conservative
government flip-flopped, issuing a Halloween night declaration that it
would indeed begin taxation in 2011 for existing trusts, while slamming
the door on new conversions immediately.
The proposal sent the
trust market crashing the very next day, and trusts have spent the last
month-plus trying to claw their way back.
US utility stocks,
however, have spent the last month making one new high after another, as
investors have sought them as a safe haven.
REITs have also gained
ground, as have a host of other income investments.
The upshot is balanced
income portfolios probably gained more in November than they lost in the
trust debacle. That should apply to anyone who followed my standing
advice of holding trust investments to 20 percent of portfolios. In
contrast, those who were heavily concentrated in trusts lost big.
Unfortunately, that includes some US investors, though the biggest
losers were Canadian investors--some of whom had 100 percent trusts in
their portfolio--and who’ve seen their life savings decimated. They
won’t recover completely unless the government completely abandons its
tax plan, which I wouldn’t lay odds on at this point.
The same kind of
disaster can strike any type of income investment.
Pipeline LPs offer high
income from solid, fee-based assets, but they wouldn’t if the US
government decided to shake up the rules as it did in the late 1980s to
curb the growth of non-energy LPs. US power utilities are flying high
now, but how long would that last if the “we demand reliable power but
don’t want to pay for it” crowd gets into power in the state where
the company you own operates?
Long-term bonds are
doing well with interest rates low and economy slowing, but what about
when inflation raises its ugly head?
I think you get the
point by now. It’s an income investing world and we all need yield.
But literally any sector can take a hit out of the blue at any time. The
only way we protect ourselves is by diversifying among many different
sectors.
Also, when a sector
does get hit, the worst thing you can do is wholly abandon it in the
heat of an emotional reaction, which will probably be a mixture of
disgust, anger, fear and panic. Rather, you re-evaluate your holdings in
that sector, make sure they’re still high quality businesses and make
swaps if they don’t measure up.
When REITs roared back
from their late ’90s swoon, the biggest winners were those who with
some adjustments kept their investment in the sector. When utilities
recovered from the 2001-02 debacle to hit new high after new high, those
who tweaked their portfolios but held firm at the lows enjoyed the
biggest gains the sector had ever seen. And buying and tacking is the
right course for those who now hold Canadian trusts in diversified
portfolios as well.
HOW TO SELL
If you stick to income
investments backed by strong businesses and pick from a range of
industries, your portfolio will weather anything. Even the impact of
volatile interest rates--forever the bane of the income seeker--can be
offset by focusing on growing businesses and holding some inflation
beneficiaries like Super Oils and Canadian trusts, as well as fixed
income with short duration or rate risk.
There will be times,
however, when it makes sense to sell an individual security or two.
First, I sell when anything appreciates to the point where it’s a
disproportionately large part of my holdings. Second, I want to sell any
income investment when the underlying business is weakening.
The first circumstance
is obviously preferable to the second, as it implies taking a profit. A
strategy of trying to maintain portfolio balance always ensures you will
take profits at good prices, as you’ll basically have little choice
but to do so.
It’s critical,
however, for a wholly different reason. That is, when a particular
stock, bond or fund becomes over-weighted in your portfolio, its
potential to drag down your entire portfolio is magnified. That,
unfortunately, is what happened to some investors in the Canadian trusts
who became dramatically over-weighted as the sector moved higher. And it’s
bound to eventually happen to anyone who becomes more and more wedded to
any bull market as it goes up--i.e., by becoming ever more weighted and
therefore dependent on it continuing.
Even if you’re evenly
weighted among sectors, it’s important to sell when a holding’s
fundamentals deteriorate. That’s hard enough when the market overall
is on solid footing and prices are relatively high.
A stable price in good
times doesn’t necessarily mean everything is OK. In fact, an overall
bouncy market can mask real trouble with an individual holding. But a
steady price does make it pretty easy to rationalize that everything is
OK, keeping you from selling when you should.
That’s one reason I
pay so much attention to actual financial results. I want to know a
company’s becoming more valuable. And if it’s not, I want to go to
something in the same sector that is.
Selling when
fundamentals deteriorate, however, is infinitely more difficult when
prices are falling. As I said at the outset of this article, it’s
tough to admit when you’ve made a mistake, but particularly when there’s
a loss involved. The reality is the security is already down and will
stay there or go lower, unless there’s a very good reason it will
recover.
In an overall sector
crash, the odds of a recovery are good, provided the underlying business
of the investment is still healthy.
The critical thing to
determine is just how healthy the business is, and being honest enough
with yourself to not let other considerations--mainly the stock’s
near-term performance--cloud your judgment.
I’ve found that to be
a tall order, even after 20 years in the investment advisory business.
So I’ve added another caveat to my rule: If I can find an investment
in a bombed-out sector that has better fundamentals than what I’m
holding, my bias is toward swapping unless I find a pretty compelling
reason not to.
For one thing, buying
something similar keeps me in the game if the overall sector turns up.
At the same time, owning a stronger entity is better protection against
the sector deteriorating further. And since everything goes down in a
sector correction, chances are I won’t pay up for the higher quality.
December is the ideal
month to make swaps, particularly in a sector that’s headed south
during the year. For one thing, you can cash out losing positions and
take advantage of the tax losses to balance off against any gains you
might have had during the year. And again, since a sector correction
takes down even the strongest, you can move into them cheaply and before
investors start buying again in January.
What I’m leading up
to is December 2006 is the ideal time for swaps with Canadian income
trusts. If you’ve taken a real beating on a particular trust, this is
the ideal time to unload it, and buy back something of higher quality.
One example would be to sell trusts yielding 16 percent or more and buy
ENERPLUS RESOURCES (NYSE: ERF), which yields less, but is an infinitely
stronger business.