When the US economy and markets sneeze, the
rest of the world catches a cold: That old investing adage has held for
nearly a century, since this country first became dominant on the global
scene after World War I.
Conventional wisdom is it will hold this time around as well. But based
on the numbers we’ve seen thus far, that’s far from certain.
In years past, the rest of the world was far more dependent on the US
than we were on it. For example, the timely action of the Greenspan
Federal Reserve and Clinton administration in 1998 effectively stanched
a financial crisis that had been building around the world to that
point, taking down entire countries such as Russia.
The current financial crisis, of course, is a mirror image of the one
nine years ago. Rather than germinating in excesses abroad, this one was
made right here in the US, as global financial institutions pumped up
the US mortgage market and then dramatically leveraged their balance
sheets to its health.
In other words, the pain is being felt here first. The rest of the world
continues to grow, in some places very rapidly. The question is how much
will US weakness eventually affect the economies outside our border,
particularly if it should worsen.
In 1998, the world basically had one major engine of economic growth,
the US. Only a coordinated move by the US could head off the crisis. And
given the heft of our economy then, that’s all it took.
Today, several major economic zones are growing rapidly: China, India,
emerging Asia, Central and Eastern Europe. The key question is how much
that growth still depends on the US economy and markets. That will
determine how much the world can stand in a US crisis as much as how bad
things wind up getting here.
Unfortunately, we’re only going to get answers to these questions by
living through the current financial crisis. But at least two things are
clear. One is America has sneezed, but most economies aren’t yet
suffering its affliction.
That suggests economies like those in emerging Asia are rapidly becoming
more independent from the US. And it means that things are probably
going to have to get much worse here before other economies really come
down.
On the other hand, stock markets the world over are closely following
the US economic news. A selloff in the US has almost always been
followed by a drop in Asia the next morning and then pressure on the
European markets.
Clearly, the global financial system is more closely connected than
ever. The subprime mortgage- and asset-backed securities issued here
based on US mortgages have made their way into the portfolios of banks
and countries from places as remote as Kazakhstan.
So it’s no surprise that weakness in the US financial sector has spread
overseas. That’s a major reason the foreign central banks have moved so
aggressively to cut interest rates and inject liquidity into the system.
There’s a group of stocks, however, that’s holding up very well. In
fact, it’s the same sector that’s been outshining here in the US:
utilities.
Like all utilities, these companies’ bread and butter is essential
services. No matter how bad things get where they operate, people are
going to pay them for electricity, heat and water. That translates into
exceptionally steady cash flow and dividends.
In recent years, the European Union has attempted to encourage
competition in these sectors, officially abolishing the monopolies and
actively trying to tilt the playing field toward new entrants. As in the
US, however, its efforts have largely had the opposite effect.
Rather than falling apart and fading away, the former monopolies have
become more dominant than ever. And freed from the shackles of tight
rate regulation, they’re more profitable than ever as well.
Global utilities have two other major selling points for US investors.
No. 1 is that they’re priced in foreign currency and their dividends are
paid in their home country’s currency.
The US dollar has rebounded somewhat in recent weeks. One reason is
foreigners have been heavy buyers of our debt securities as safe havens.
That may continue to be the case as long as recession fears percolate
globally. But in the past several years, the direction for the greenback
has been down.
Given our deficit spending, the long-term trend for the US dollar is
likely to remain down for some time, with the drop resuming as a bottom
for the US economy starts to come more into view. My guess is that will
happen in the first half of 2008. And when it does, the US dollar value
of foreign utility stocks and their dividends will resume its multi-year
uptrend as well.
Owning foreign utility stocks, then, is a great way for US investors to
hedge our natural exposure to our home currency’s weakness.
The other major selling point is growth. As I’ve pointed out in past
issues of Utility & Income, the US utility universe no longer moves in
lockstep.
In fact, in stark contrast to the old monopoly days, virtually every
company’s business mix is different. As a result, while some US
utilities offer basically no growth, others offer explosive upside in
coming years.
The world’s fastest-growing economies, however, are outside the US.
Foreign-based utilities are directly tied to the growth of those
economies.
Electricity demand in China, for example, is growing at a rate of more
than 10 percent a year. That’s wired in growth for its major electricity
generation companies such as HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, making them
ideal for investors to cash in on that growth.
Emerging economy growth, of course, has historically been far more
volatile than growth in developed lands. But foreign-based utilities
also offer a safety advantage not shared by stocks in any other sector:
They’re recession resistant.
Simply, like US utilities, they produce essential services that people,
businesses and governments can’t do without. Even when the rest of a
country is crashing, they still offer stability.
Just as state regulatory environments define US utilities’ risk, so is
the risk of foreign utilities governed by their host country regulation.
In good climates, companies will grow and thrive. In hostile ones,
financial trouble is only a matter of time. In fact, outright
nationalization—as Venezuela did with its dominant power and telecom
companies this year—is even a possibility.
As a result, an assessment of the regulatory environment is the best
possible starting point for analyzing foreign-based utilities, just as
it is for their US counterparts. Similarly, a company that has exposure
to several regulatory environments will limit its risk to a disaster in
a single market.
That’s why my favorite foreign utilities are those that have spread
their risk. The Utility Forecaster portfolios list several in this
group. My favorites in the power sector are AES CORP, CLP HOLDINGS and
ENEL.
Based in Northern Virginia, AES operates a growing portfolio of power
plants and regulated utilities on every major continent. The company
enjoyed almost uninterrupted growth up until the 2001-02 utility bear
market. At that point, it nearly collapsed under the weight of a huge
debt burden and a dispersed asset mix that was almost unmanageable.
But the company’s principals Roger Sant and Dennis Bakke—who had built
the enterprise from scratch—then took a step back. They hired consummate
global insider Richard Darman as chairman of the board and Paul Hanrahan
as CEO. The company almost immediately began to recover, and it’s never
looked back since.
AES’ current thrust is green energy, and it plans a massive build-out of
wind, solar and biomass globally, particularly in China and the US. As
the somewhat disappointing initial public offering (IPO) of Spanish
utility IBERDROLA’S unit Ibernova showed this week, green power’s no
investment market shoo-in as long as recession fears percolate. But it’s
making a lot of money for those who control it, and those returns are
showing up in AES’ pocket in a big way.
The company has a great deal of exposure to Latin America. But again,
that’s a calculated risk, and diversification goes a long way toward
protecting the overall asset base. AES’ forced exit from Venezuela this
year, for example, scarcely put a dent in its growth.
CLP Holdings is a direct bet on the runaway growth of power demand in
Asia, particularly China. The company’s Hong Kong utility core is likely
to get a lower rate of return for the next five years than it’s enjoyed
the past five; that’s the upshot from recent noises coming out of the
city’s government. But it has more than enough growth
opportunities—including in Hong Kong—to pick up the slack.
For example, the company is building a liquid natural gas terminal in
Hong Kong that will service its needs and earn it fees as it enters the
rate base. Moreover, Hong Kong is one of the few economies that’s
historically been able to routinely withstand weakness in the US, and
demand for power continues to grow steadily.
CLP’s real opportunities are outside its borders. The company’s direct
exposure to mainland China has been limited to a few targeted
investments. That’s held growth to less than it might have been. But it
also limits exposure to a potential cooling off of that red-hot market,
and there’s a lot of upside for new projects.
CLP has, however, been a prolific acquirer of assets throughout emerging
Asia. The company’s latest target is India, but it’s done very well in a
score of other nations as well, including Australia. It also pays a
generous dividend of around 5 percent.
Few people are aware of it. But the
emerging economies of Eastern and Central Europe are collectively
growing almost as rapidly as China and emerging Asia. Italy-based ENEL
has positioned itself well to take advantage, building plants in
several countries and taking a major stake in Russian utilities and
natural gas.
The company, which is also a major player in African gas transport and
sales, enjoyed its greatest coup to date earlier this year. That’s
when it hooked up with Spanish conglomerate ACCIONA to take a
controlling interest in that country’s largest power company, ENDESA.
The deal dramatically expands ENEL’s presence in Europe, particularly
Spain. And it also adds numerous assets in Latin America, where the
market for power is growing rapidly, if not a bit erratically.
The primary asset is a controlling interest in Chile’s Enersis, which
itself has a growing presence in the Mercosur or Southern Cone
countries. A focus on this region has particular appeal in light of
the US economy’s difficulties because it’s the furthest away from our
troubles.
Countries such as Argentina, for example, have always had a closer
connection to Europe than to the US. Now, they’re also forging closer
ties to emerging Asia. The result is solid power demand, even if
things tail off further here.
As for dividends, AES doesn’t pay one. It does have a PREFERRED C
note, however, that’s convertible into common stock and pays around 7
percent. It’s callable at 50, and it’s conversion value is still well
below the current price—a hangover from the 2001-02 collapse. So the
common is a more direct play on the company’s continued growth.
CLP’s American Depositary Receipts (ADR) pay a regular quarterly
dividend, basically an anomaly outside the US and Canada. ENEL’s
payout, meanwhile, is twice yearly and varies with profitability.
Management, however, has been more than generous divvying out the
cash, and it can afford to, given the company’s deep prosperity.
One thing US investors in all foreign equities need to be aware of is
foreign government withholding. Basically, it’s standard practice for
host governments to take 15 percent of all cash dividends paid to US
investors right off the top before it shows up in investors’ accounts.
That percentage is actually higher for nationals of other countries.
As a result, your net dividend is usually about 15 percent less than
the gross dividend. The good news is you can get back the withholding
when you file your US taxes by filling out a Form 1116.
The bad news is the amount you can get back in a given year is
governed by how much in taxes you’re paying elsewhere. If your rate is
sufficiently low, you can’t get the full amount back in that year. You
can, however, carry the credit forward to future years.
It’s a pain, and we can all wish for a time when free markets and free
borders truly reign. For now, it’s just a cost of foreign investing
and well worth bearing, given the rewards for owning the right
companies.
There’s one additional way conservative investors can play global
growth and the resistance of foreign economies to US woes: selected
vital resource stocks.
I’ve noted here that my colleague Yiannis Mostrous and I have launched
a new service, Vital Resource Investor (http://www.vitalresourceinvestor.com),
that’s devoted to stock plays on these opportunities. Results so far
have been a nice counterweight to some of the turmoil in other sectors
I recommend, such as Canadian income trusts and other super-yield
plays.
As I wrote last week, high yield is to this decade what high tech was
to the 1990s. And just as high tech went on to monster profits
following that decade’s credit crisis, so should high yield this
decade. That’s why you want to stick with the best of these sectors:
namely investments that can maintain those distribution streams during
the market’s current “stress testing.”
On the other hand, it’s nice to be making money in one of the few
sectors—besides utilities anyway—that’s doing well. Unlike utilities
foreign and domestic, vital resource stocks are volatile animals. And
like any other sector, no one should overload on them.
But with today’s inflation numbers looking a little scary and signs of
economic weakness growing in the US, the miners of increasingly scarce
iron ore, aluminum, platinum and so on are increasingly attractive.
Meanwhile, like utilities, merger mania
is heating up in the sector and indications are that premiums are
going to be substantial. This week, for example, a Chinese steel giant
made a billion-dollar cash bid for a small Australian iron ore
producer. An equal offer would value RIO TINTO’S iron ore business
alone at USD110 billion versus a current market capitalization for the
entire company of just USD140 billion.
Rio, of course, has been targeted for
takeover by fellow diversified Australian giant BHP BILLITON. Rio
charges BHP’s offer of three of its shares for one Rio share is far
too low. And it has a real point. Mainly, iron ore accounted for about
30 percent of income last year, and that was before the ALCAN takeover
beefed up its aluminum business.
Rio Tinto’s far from the only vital
resource company in play. In fact, this cost-pressured industry is
certain to increasingly consolidate, with extremely deep-pocketed
Chinese mining companies setting the pricing more and more.
China needs resources to keep its growth going and is willing to pay
up for them. We may as well take advantage as investors.