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UNDERMINING GOLD
Chart Spotlight
by Carl Swenlin
DecisionPoint.com
January 19, 2006
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While mining gold has
become very profitable, there are many signs that future prices are
being undermined. For example, our first chart shows total assets
and cash flow for Rydex Precious Metals Fund. While assets have risen
along with price, cash flow (the bottom panel on the chart) reflects
that money has actually been flowing out of precious metal stocks. This
means that the rally has very thin support.
SIDEBAR: We are seeing similar divergences across a wide range of Rydex index and sector funds.
Our next chart of the gold ETF shows that a similar technical divergence is affecting the price of gold as well. Note how the December and January OBV (on-balance volume) peaks were about equal and failed to confirm recent highs. Also, OBV during the last two weeks' rally has been virtually flat -- again failing to confirm the price advance, and implying that distribution is taking place.
Finally, sentiment for gold is becoming very bullish, as demonstrated by our last chart which shows the premium/discount being paid for Central Fund of Canada (CEF), a closed-end fund that owns gold and silver. Closed-end funds trade like stocks and can trade at a premium or discount to the actual net asset value (NAV) of the fund's assets. Currently, in their rush to own gold, investors are willing to pay nearly 10% more than the fund's assets are actually worth.
Conclusion: Both gold and gold stocks are overbought and showing signs of internal weakness. Bullish sentiment is becoming excessive. All this evidence implies that a correction is due. It could be a short-term event lasting a few weeks, or it may stretch out over several months, and the amount of the correction could be quite jarring; however, I have no reason to conclude that the bull market in gold is over. It is time to guard stops and be patient until the technical problems have cleared, and another buying opportunity presents itself.
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