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Suddenly and without warning, investors are about to feel the impact of
a massive, all-pervasive force that most have been ignoring.
It’s unstoppable,
inescapable, and sometimes inexplicable.
It has the potential to
rip apart some investment portfolios, while sending others soaring.
It has long been denied
by Washington. It’s still overlooked by much of Wall Street. And
it’s controversial as all heck.
But you don’t have to
get involved in the debate about what’s the cause or who’s to blame.
Nor do you want to get bogged down in all the technical mumbo-jumbo that
inevitably comes with it.
All you need to do is
recognize that it’s happening ... and that it’s doing so
more rapidly than most people expected.
I’m talking about the
inexorable rise in the earth’s temperature — global warming. My main
point:
Even
if global warming’s impact — on climate, agriculture, commodity
prices and inflation — does not appear for many months or years ...
the impact from preparations for global warming — by
governments, large corporations and world organizations — is beginning
to be felt right now.
Specifically ...
- Investment is
surging in nuclear energy, ethanol and other non-fossil energy
alternatives ...
- Demand is likely to
surge for technologies that can clean up traditional fossil-fuel
industries, and ...
- Dozens of
mainstream, high-profile companies are jumping on board.
This is the undeniable
reality of our time. Whether you or I like or dislike the players ...
agree or disagree with the rhetoric ... accept or deny the forecasts ...
we can no longer downplay its importance.
We must understand it.
We must incorporate its implications into our investment strategies. And
we’d be crazy not to consider the incalculable profit opportunities
that it offers.
Think about it ...
Global
warming could be far more powerful and pervasive than any other
megatrend. It’s already beginning to prompt substantial capital
outlays. And no matter what’s done today, this is one megatrend
that’s unlikely to go away in our lifetime, our children’s lifetime,
or even in our great grandchildren’s.
White House,
Congress, States, Supreme Court! All Suddenly in Swing!
Still not convinced
global warming is a here-and-now issue for investors? Then look at
what’s happening ...
Scientists
on both sides of the debate have reached a consensus that the earth’s
temperature is rising and human uses are a critical cause. The only
major disagreement: What to do about it — try to prevent further
warming and abrupt climate changes ... or just adapt to it.
The Bush
Administration no
longer rules out the idea of mandatory caps on greenhouse gases,
according to a recent speech by the U.S. Undersecretary of State.
And even in the past
five years, while the U.S. government has been largely holding back, it has
invested $29 billion in climate science and technology research.
Now, even if the
government’s position on global warming stays the same, expect another
$40 - $50 billion in spending over the next five years. And if
the new Congress has its way, expect many times that amount.
Already ...
In
Congress, Senators
Boxer, Bingaman, and Lieberman — poised to head the Senate committees
on environment, energy and homeland security — have just sent a letter
to President Bush asking for his cooperation “to signal to the world
that global warming legislation is on the way.”
And that’s just their
first warning shot. The real fireworks are about to begin next year. No,
it’s not a fait accomplit. But there can be no question that the
pressure is building. Fast.
12 states
— California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey,
New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington —
have already set tough legislation, such as Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Targets. And now ...
The U.S. Supreme Court
is being asked by these states, several cities and other organizations
to decide if the federal government has the power to control greenhouse
emissions ... and whether or not it’s required by law to use
that power.
Last week, the justices
appeared split. And early next year, we’ll see a decision. But
regardless of the outcome of this particular case, the die is cast.
Global warming, long a sideshow in the political and financial arenas,
has burst into the forefront.
Prime Minister
Blair Opens the Floodgates!
Six years ago, the Bush
Administration recognized that the earth’s temperature was rising. It
recognized that the U.S. is the world’s largest emitter of manmade
greenhouse gases, accounting for almost 20 percent. And it admitted that
at least some of the temperature rise could be due to human activity.
But from their
perspective, that wasn’t enough to warrant massive, potentially
expensive — and disruptive — changes.
Their reasoning: No one
could say how much of the global warming was due to natural
fluctuations. No one could pin down how much and how fast the earth’s
climate would change in the future. And no one seemed to have a clue
regarding how or when policy changes would make a difference.
Now, much of that
uncertainty seems to be clearing.
Just last month,
Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair ripped down the dams and opened
the floodgates to more worldwide spending on global warming
preparations.
The occasion: The
release of a 600–page report on global warming by Her Majesty’s
Treasury. Its conclusions:
- Business-as-usual
emissions will take global temperatures way beyond human experience.
- Greenhouse gases
could more than triple by 2100.
- As a result, the
world’s GDP could decrease by as much as 20%.
- Therefore, it’s
far cheaper to face the issue now with investments to mitigate —
and adjust to — a warmer earth.
According to the
report, there are only two ways to stabilize the concentration of
greenhouse gases:
The first
way will be to avoid emitting them in the first place.
To make that possible,
they predict that demand for renewable fuels will grow to more than $500
billion per year by 2050.
In the U.S., for
example, just to meet existing government standards for
renewable fuels, we’re going to need about one quarter of our
corn production to produce ethanol. So imagine the skyrocketing demand
for corn and other ethanol sources when tighter standards are imposed!
Result: Much higher
prices for corn and related commodities.
And that assumes no
further rise in energy costs due to factors that have nothing to do with
global warming. Case in point: According to a Congressional Budget
Office study earlier this year, China and other emerging markets will
demand more energy and drive fuel prices higher, regardless of global
warming costs.
The other
way is to capture emissions after they’re created.
Expect a raft of new
innovative companies jumping into this field. Already, dozens of U.S.
companies have taken steps to address global climate change.
They’ve set targets
to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
They’ve implemented
innovative energy solutions.
They’ve improved
waste management
Or, they’ve
participated in the trading of financial instruments based on emissions.
Here’s just a partial
listing:
Don’t
get me wrong: Their early participation in global warming-related
tactics are not sufficient reason to rush out and buy their shares.
There are too many
other factors that can make or break a stock. And in some of these
industries, there are too many other economic dangers on the horizon.
But this goes to show
how the momentum is building ... how it’s spreading ... and how
investors can aim for big profits by being in the right place at the
right time.
Our
Recommendations
First,
if you haven’t done so already, take a serious look at the uranium
investments Sean has been recommending. Also don’t miss his
report, 5
Big Winners Set to Soar as Wall Street Catches Uranium Fever.
The global warming
scare is now so pervasive that even many environmentalists, formerly
anti-nuke, have switched sides, favoring clean nuclear energy as the
only major, currently-available energy source that won’t cook
the planet.
Second,
don’t miss the opportunities in ethanol. Some salient facts:
- Already, over 1
billion gallons are consumed in California, strictly due to the fact
that its gas is required to contain at least 6% ethanol.
- There are 3 million
flex-fuel autos in the U.S. which can run on any mixture. At the
moment, few gas stations provide it. But that’s likely to change a
lot more quickly than Wall Street now estimates.
I
see no technological or economic hurdle preventing U.S. and foreign
auto makers from converting almost entirely to flex-fuel engines.
- Auto manufacturers
in Brazil are already there. Less than three years ago, Brazil’s
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drove the first Brazilian
flex-fuel car off the assembly line — with an engine capable of
using pure alcohol, pure gasoline or some combination. Today, nearly
all cars made in Brazil have that capability, and it’s only a
matter of time before you see the same worldwide.
Bottom line: A further
surge in ethanol demand.
Just in the past six
years, production capacity of ethanol in the U.S. has more than doubled.
And right now, 97 ethanol plants are in operation with at least another
30 under construction.
Which stocks will
benefit? One company we’re looking at seriously is
Archer Daniels Midland.
The company is the
world leader in the production of soy meal and oil, wheat for bakery
products and cocoa for chocolate products. At the same time, it’s the
largest producer of ethanol in the U.S.
Plus, its nationwide
network of railcars, trucks, barges, and storage facilities means that
it can deliver large amounts of ethanol — on an as-needed or
just-in-time basis. Translation: Efficient, cost-effective ethanol
production and distribution.
Good luck and God
Bless!
Martin
Weiss,
Ph.D.
Editor, Safe Money Report
support@martinweiss.com

© 2006 Martin D. Weiss,
Ph.D.
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