Feb 24, 2023 – In my financial career, I've come to realize that many of the tenets we are taught and that are propagated by the financial industry may appear feasible in academic papers but tend to fail in practice. The great majority of people...
Feb 8, 2023 – The economic environment remains uncertain. ISM surveys show a consistent deceleration for manufacturing while the latest services data points to a very brief one-month contraction. Housing prices continue to fall month over month and...
Jan 4, 2023 – Felix Zulauf, head of Zulauf Consulting, recently discussed his short- and long-term outlook for the markets, the global economy, commodities, and much more in an interview on our weekday podcast. In the short-term...
Sep 29 – The expected number of wind turbines needed to reach a net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050 will require a herculean mining effort to extract 3,200 million tons of steel, 310 million tons of aluminum, and 40 million tons copper...
Sep 13 - In addition to the regulations and new taxes on energy, there is a major disincentive to invest in producing more oil and natural gas. Amin Nasser, the head of Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, said the world is facing a major...
Aug 18 – The recent 6-month slide in existing home sales is so steep that even the sharpest deceleration during the housing bubble could not match the recent pace in declining home sales in that it took 9 months to fall in 2007 to match...
Aug 1 – A true pause by the Fed means an end to rate hikes AND an end to shrinking its balance sheet. The market is cheering that we may be getting closer to the former but, I believe, has yet to come to grips with the latter...
Jul 14 – As shown by the chart below, the Biden administration is selling off US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at the fastest pace on record. As of today, we are now at the lowest levels since 1985. Here is where things get concerning...
Jun 16 – The great majority of professional economists and the mainstream media define inflation as merely rising prices. However, this definition says absolutely nothing about any specific cause of rising prices. It implies that inflation can be caused by anything...
May 25 – Since the 1981-1982 recession, every time the 2yr UST yield dipped below the fed funds rate by 50 bps or more, the Fed cut interest rates within 1 year, no exceptions. The typical lead time was just under 2 months...
