Financial Sense Blog

May 18 – With financial markets not quite near seizure levels, we do not appear to be close to a Fed pivot yet. Further, the other concern given the decline in economic growth (negative print in GDP for Q1 2022) is that analysts continue to not price in...

May 2 – In my four decades in the business, I have only witnessed one soft landing once a fed rate raising cycle began, which was 1994. They have a very poor track record of predicting inflation and engineering a soft landing in the economy...

Apr 13 – Much of our oil comes from just 25 oil fields discovered over 75 years ago. The worlds’ 507 giant oil fields make up about 1% of all oil fields, but they produce 60% of the current oil supply. The majority of these fields are over 50 years old...

Mar 4 – New home sales are down double-digits from last year’s level as a 30-year fixed rate mortgages have surged from under 3% to nearly 5%. Unless mortgage rates move materially lower soon, the slowdown in housing is...

Jan 21 – Current money flows are reflecting a reactionary positioning to higher inflation and higher interest rates with dramatic moves seen across the ETF space. Also, as shown below, money is coming out of very large, passive ETFs and going into...

Jan 4 – While economic growth is likely to remain positive in 2022, we are seeing a large withdrawal in market liquidity coming from several sources: Fed QE is ending, REPO facility is exploding to nearly $2T, and the US Treasury will be...

Dec 27 – I do believe that we are looking at a very important medium-term peak. But I do not believe that is the end of this current market cycle. I think the market cycle will most likely stretch into 2024. But what we are facing now is...

Nov 16 – US and global growth is slowing after a strong initial recovery. We have the fiscal cliff ahead of us as well as the Fed's planned tapering of its QE purchases. Growth will likely slow well into the first half of 2022 and with it some moderation...

Oct 29 – In the not too distant future, an American president will have no other choice but to devalue the currency as a means of debt forbearance. He or she will have no choice. Interest payments will be too large, and taxes will not be sufficient to pay interest...

Oct 1 – The dramatic shift away from “dirty energy” to “green energy” has seen large investor capital shift away from resource companies that dominated in the early 2000s towards the FAANG stocks over the last decade. This shift in capital coupled with falling commodity prices