Given the persisent deterioration in market breadth starting around the beginning of July, I began cautioning over the last couple weeks that risks for a correction were starting to build. Now that the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have finally cracked, the question is how much more damage is to come?
These are four of the biggest threats to the bull market. According to Hugh Johnson Advisors, first is the threat of oil skyrocketing over the turmoil in the Middle East, and natural gas prices soaring as Russia retaliates over U.S. and European trade sanctions.
One of the great questions being debated right now is how will the market react once QE3 ends this October. Those who believe asset prices (namely stocks, bonds, and real estate) are being supported by the Fed, and not by underlying economic growth, expect a correction or worse once the Fed withdraws its support.
The 2014 Social Security report to Congress is finally out. The report was released four-months later than permitted by law; this is the sixth year in a row that the Report has been late. The word ‘sloppy’ comes to mind; Treasury Secretary Lew gets a ‘D’ for timeliness.
Our recent market technician, Louise Yamada, provides her view on what to watch for a market top, while noting that multi-year breakouts in a number of large tech names may offset losses in other areas and drive more rotation.
The year 2016 will see a number of important events: the US presidential election, the Summer Olympics, and, according to a growing number of market analysts, another financial crisis.
One of the recurring headlines adding to the “wall of worry” is the battle between U.S. hedge funds and the Argentina government over payment of the country’s bond debt stemming from the country’s 1998-2002 economic crisis.
Given how well the credit markets warned of the last two major turning points in the market I respect the message of the credit markets over the stock market when the two do not confirm each other, as they are currently.
We recently interviewed Avi Gilburt of ElliotWaveTrader.net, a widely followed metals and market analyst who is currently ranked as the highest "Opinion Leader" on gold and precious metals at Seeking Alpha. Here is a summary of his interview with Q&A below.