Vladimir Putin would have been well advised to study the lessons of the Suez crisis before he invaded Crimea. Like Anthony Eden of Great Britain he is beginning to realize that economic warfare can be more ruthlessly destructive than military might.
With two reports a day, and often more, readers sometimes complain that keeping tabs on the thoughts of the various Gavekal analysts can be a challenge. So as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region by region.
The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization...
The cluster of Hindenburg Omens on the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 correctly warned of a pullback in the markets but now that we appear to be stabilizing with the FOMC meeting out of the way how should investors view the recent market weakness?
Recent remarks by ECB President Mario Draghi have promised to tackle the near-recession level of activity plaguing the Eurozone. But while words have come often, there has been far less action from the central banking system, which seems rife with internal debate and political issues.
In the wake of a widely unexpected, huge oil price decline, I have received many questions and comments. Some speculate U.S. pressure on Saudi Arabia to punish Russia. Others think "big oil" is out to punish the frackers.
The Financial Times ran a very interesting article last week called “China: Turning away from the dollar”. It got a lot of attention, at least among China analysts, and I was asked several times by friends and clients for my response. The authors, James Kynge and Josh Noble, begin...
For signs that the energy market is stabilizing we need to see default risk for the sector improve, which clearly hasn’t happened yet. Option adjusted spreads on the investment grade energy sector index are nearing a 5-year high and for the high yield energy index spreads have exploded...
Lowry Research’s Senior Market Strategist, Richard Dickson, tells Financial Sense Newshour that the sharp Sept/Oct correction and bounceback in stocks is typical late-stage bull market behavior and that investors should be focusing on large-caps heading into a top.
The way events are lining up, 2015 will be the Year of Volatility. Markets will be waiting for major decisions from the world’s central banks and uncertainties in macro and commodity markets to broach. Here are 6 reasons volatility is poised to make a comeback.