As outlined on January 11th, we believed this year would again defy bearish forecasts and see instead: a positive gain for U.S. stocks, a strengthening dollar, lower commodity prices, and improving U.S. economic growth. Here’s how things have played out so far.
The US stock market has displayed a strong rally off the October lows and has seasonal tailwinds at its back. However, near-term caution may be advised since we are starting to see some negative divergences in market breadth and the credit markets, suggesting a pause or pullback may be in the works.
For nearly a few centuries, the northern Atlantic was the center of the world economy. This era is over. It has been over for some time. Since the early 1980s, more goods cross the Pacific than the Atlantic. This is a crucial development in our lifetime.
If relatively robust growth in thin-air credit was a major factor accounting for 2014’s bountiful U.S. economic harvest, as I believe it was, then 2015’s “harvest” is likely to be considerably less bountiful.
It's always a good idea to periodically take a look at what the foreign community is doing in terms of net US equity purchases. The reason lies in the fact that they tend to buy at tops and sell at bottoms and can serve as a contrary indicator...
The recent turbulence in the stock market is behind us and a rally is now underway. Given the fact that we have recently entered the most favourable 6-month period of the U.S. Presidential Cycle, it is our contention that Wall Street will advance quite sharply until spring.
China has announced it will finally open its equity markets to foreign investors. A trading link will be established between Shanghai and Hong Kong this coming Monday. This will open up access to nearly $2 trillion worth of Chinese equities.
The persistent decline in the price of oil and commodities from mid-year until now has caught investors by surprise. Many market observers thought there was a $100 floor under Brent crude based on technical and fundamental supply-demand factors. Once that price level was broken...
Gold’s time will come again, and so will silver’s. But I don’t think we’re there yet. If a bear market has three phases, I’d say we’re in the final phase – but the bear still has some biting to do. Time will tell if I’m right or not.
In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data. At the time, the consensus view was that growth in wages and employment were accelerating and that this would soon lead to a meaningful increase in inflation above the Fed's 2% target. So far, this has been wrong.