The story line for the U.S. petro-dollar is bound to get better in the years ahead. The U.S. has more recoverable natural gas than any other country. This represents a century’s worth of output and can support peak production at more than twice the 2013 level.
The terms of the debate have shifted. The issue now is when does the Fed hike rates next year. And further, how will the U.S. stock and bond market respond. This Great Graphic appeared in the Wall Street Journal, and was tweeted by Pedro da Costa.
Gold is still in a downtrend, if you examine a chart of gold prices measured in dollars. But gold in euros looks much stronger, and that’s actually a bullish condition, eventually. People often ask at what dollar price is gold likely to find support or resistance.
Once breaking through its eight year declining trend from 1989 to 1997, the dollar rallied 50% until finally peaking with the tech bubble. Should the USD break out this time around, it is quite likely to have a strong bullish run going forward.
As part of our ongoing emphasis on tech innovations, we’ll mention a few stories that have caught our eye recently. Some are obviously tech-related, others less so. We continue to believe that such innovations — and the entrepreneurs who bring them from concept to reality...
Ongoing tensions in Ukraine have recently settled with a ceasefire deal and Russian troops also pulling back from the area. This is certainly a positive development, though many still wonder whether we are witnessing the beginnings of a new Cold War or worse between Russia and the West.
The beginning of the new school year heightens the anxiety over the rising cost of higher education. The cost of a college education is increasingly beyond the means of average American family. Tuition has risen faster than inflation, student debt has soared and jobs are difficult to secure.
All the chatter from the Fed about interest rate levels, forward guidance, tapering, etc. is largely noise. In a consumption driven economy, wage growth is the accelerant of consumption growth, not rising equity and real estate prices through the illusory "wealth effect".
I subscribe to the tenet espoused by the late Professor Milton Friedman that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When I speak of inflation, I include not only the behavior of prices of goods and services but also the behavior of the prices of assets.