Financial Sense Newshour

In this week’s first Big Picture topic, “Déjà vu, Revolt of the Money Wealth”, Jim looks at the parallels between the 1970’s and today. He notes that the Fed was able to keep interest rates under control in the early to mid-1970’s even though inflation was building. In 1977 the bond investors started to revolt. Jim sees similarities today, and discusses when the “money wealth” will eventually revolt and start selling their bonds. In the next topic, “Is the Run in Dividend Stocks Over?” Jim notes that a pull-back is not unusual, especially given the overvaluation of sectors such as utilities. Jim believes the run in dividend-paying blue chip stocks is far from over.

Jim is pleased to welcome Ronald Marcks, who under the penname Jens O. Parsson wrote “Dying of Money” in 1974, as double-digit inflation was heating up in the US. In his book, Mr. Marcks wrote of the German inflation of 1914-1923, and the rise of the American inflation of the late 1960’s into the 1970’s. Jim and Mr. Marcks discuss the parallels of Weimar Germany to what is happening today. They also discuss the phenomenon that every burst of monetary inflation has been followed by a stock market rise and boom in prosperity and every contraction by a stock market fall and recession. Mr. Marcks sees a “latent inflation” in the US, as the money supply has increased much faster than prices for the last three decades.

Jim welcomes back John Butler, Chief Investment Officer at Amphora Commodities Alpha Fund in London. John poses the question; might the US may be covertly intervening in the foreign exchange markets to support the US dollar? Because of the Federal Reserve’s QE policy, the pressure is building on the dollar. If foreigners dramatically accelerate their diversification out of dollars and into other currencies, and gold, the US would face a dilemma. The US could allow interest rates to rise to stabilize the dollar, triggering a recession, or it can continue to suppress interest rates but watch the dollar fall sharply, triggering far higher inflation and economic (and perhaps political) instability. John believes the US may take a third path, continuing to suppress interest rates through QE, but covertly intervening on foreign exchange markets to support the dollar. Desperate policymakers sometimes do desperate things.

This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss under what circumstances is it okay to touch your principal and how much should you be pulling out. Jim outlines the options for managing your assets, and the options for managing your expenses. They also discuss when it’s not okay to dip into principal, and illustrate the topic using the case study of Melvin and Joanne Keller. The special guest this week is Dr. T. Colin Campbell, coauthor of the bestselling book, “The China Study”, which details the connection between nutrition and heart disease, diabetes, and cancer. Dr. Campbell was also featured in the documentary film, “Forks Over Knives”.