Gail Tverberg: IEA Report Assumes Unrealistic Future Energy Prices
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Jim welcomes energy expert Gail Tverberg to the program. Gail believes there are flaws in the recent IEA energy forecast, and sees diminishing returns on Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI). She doesn’t see the US becoming the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, and doesn’t believe that shale oil will make the US energy independent in the future. She believes we could find ourselves reaching “peak oil” because of an economic dilemma: while there seems to be plenty of oil available, the cost of extracting it may be reaching a point where it is more expensive than consumers can afford, and will be left in the ground.
Gail Tverberg has an M. S. from the University of Illinois, Chicago in Mathematics, and is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. Gail became aware of the impact oil shortages could have on insurance companies back in the 1973 – 1974 period, when oil shortages were first a problem. In 2005, she began reading books on the subject, including Jeremy Leggett’s The Empty Tank. She also speaks on finite world issues, including the connection between oil shortages and the economy. Gail has been an invited speaker to many groups, including the Seventh Biennial International Workshop in Energy Studies in Barcelona, Spain; the 2nd International Biophyisical Economics Conference; and to groups on the Big Island in Hawaii. In addition to some of her talks, Gail has appeared on the Canadian television station BNN.