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THE BALANCE OF POWER
China Version 8.11
by David Tribble
July 22, 2005


Watching for trends appears to be a large part of investment. People submit a huge amount of material for publication regarding waves, highs, lows, and technical reasons why you should buy and sell commodities, stocks and bonds. This is another type of trend analysis, one you will likely never see anyplace else.

Yesterday China revalued their currency from 8.277 to 8.11 for the U.S. Dollar. It was a surprise announcement on the last day of Mr. Greenspan appearance before Congress. The balance of power shifted, slightly towards China. However, this day has been in the making for sometime, and it appears like all shifts in the balance of power between nations, to be strategic. 7/21/2005 was a strategic move by the Chinese for something more than just money, but certainly was power.

Time Table of Events

03/23/2005

Bonds were at 109.13 and this was a bottom.

 06/03/2005  Bonds topped at 118.22, 73 days later. (Which adds to 11)
 06/15/2005  Bonds closed at 116.07, 12 days later. (Someone is selling bonds.)
 06/24/2005  CNOOC makes public their offer of Cash for Unocal. (9 days later.)
 06/27/2005  Bonds top 119.02/ (See the reverse 911.) (Someone is buying bonds.)
 06/30/2005  U.S. focuses on Iran's President in media as a terrorist from 1979. Congress
 votes to block the Unocal bid and lobbies the President very hard against
 China. All of this on the same day.
 07/05/2005  Bonds close 117.09, 8 days from previous top. (Someone is selling again.)
 07/07/2005  G8 meeting in London, 4 bombings: 3 on subway, 1 double-decker bus. (In a
 way, a mirror event to 9/11 in U.S. (4 planes) (2 days later and bonds start
 down again.)
 07/13/2005  IEA in Paris downgrades 4th quarter demand for oil
 07/14/2005  Chinese General speaks of Nuclear War with U.S. over Taiwan. (7 days later
 from G8 meeting and bonds still dropping.)
 07/15/2005  China calls Japan's diplomatic envoy in to formally complain about Japan's
 drill for oil and natural gas.
 07/19/2005  Unocal Board, I believe, on this day votes to back the Chevron Bid.
 07/21/2005  China announces a revalue of their currency and going to an unknown basket. 8.277 to
  8.11. 4 failed bomb attempts in London, copy of the previous 14 days earlier. (7 days after
 China General warns of Nuclear War.)
 07/22/2005  A South East Asian man is killed in London apparently connected to the bombings at
 Stockwell Station.

Looking at the days that pass from the June 3rd top, 

12 days to June 15.

12 days to June 27th. Double 12 = Midnight., or High Noon. Unocal is on the table and it is about oil reserves in South East Asia.

8 Days pass to the next low in bonds, on 7/5

2 days pass to the G8 Meeting, Terrorist Attack

7 days pass to Chinese General warning on Nuclear war with U.S.

7 days pass to Revalue of Currency. from 8.277 to 8.11. Looking forward from 7/5, you see 8277, and looking backward you see 811. It is all in the way you see things and people in China do write and see things differently!

This revalue of the currency gave China more money to up the bid on Unocal, and the numbers which they revalued to point back to the issues in June, and Unocal bid by CNOOC. China appears have got us politically, financially, in everyway that I can imagine, and has started something of an economic war with the U.S., which can result in many different economic events here. They own us. The president is not responding to Congress, because there is no way he can.

Bonds dropped because CNOOC needed cash to bid on Unocal. They were raising the money, or cashing out from 6/3-6/15, sequenced with Flag Day in the United States. The offer for Unocal made on 6/24 must have been set with a 3-day response time requested.

6/27/2005  The selling begins again in T-Bills. Second 12 day sequence is up.

The United States in the next 8 days responds in two ways, first Focusing on Iran, 2nd, Political Action to block Unocal. (both are probably an act for the Public to think we are doing something). Attacks in London are really against US. Just like our threats to Iran are really against China.

It appears that China actually owns controls and completely dominates the 30 year T-Bills, in such a way, that they have total control of our yields today. If they can make the market go up and down, in such a way to SPELL out 8.277, AND 8.11 Backwards and forwards, spelling it out for everyone to see, From June 3rd to July 21. A total of 49 days, maybe 50 from the exact moment they started selling is very disturbing to me. Counting 7/22/2005 as a part of the sequence, it is 50 days, I assume for 50 states. Welcome to the new Union! Here's your fortune cookie!

I just did not expect to find 8.277 to 8.11 written in Chinese across the Bond market just like they write, 118277. (or 8.11 to 8.227), not in the form of Yields or bond values, but in the form of the number of days between Highs and Lows, as they raise and lower our long term interest rates. Do you think they also own 10 year yields? Gulp... I do.

It also indicates that if Unocal does not accept the CNOOC bid, and the U.S. blocks this takeover, ( which is completely about the Unocal Reserves in Southeast Asia), then 8.11 probably means an economic equivalent of 9/11. I suspect the consequences of allowing CNOCC to buy Unocal are far better than the consequences of letting Unocal go to Chevron for less. If Chevron wins, well, we are all probably going to loose financially and hopefully, that is all we loose!!!! Oh, and if this is not disturbing enough, do you notice that the CNOOC deal is offering I believe $67 a share, and these events transcend the months of June and July, ( 67). CNOOC reportedly is willing to go to $70. I am not going to show you the lows and highs for Oil, however, it appears from a glance that both the Bond Market and the Oil market are going up and down like two flags in the wind in sequence. Now that is really cool, don’t you think so?

They have been planning this along time, so they also have plans for how they will respond. It is very strategic, and around Oil. And if they can place a version of Chinese Scrabble with the Bond Market, then what can they do in Copper, and Oil? I am not really sure how much weight to give my cleaver little numerical sequence of events; however, beyond numbers, dates, and yields, the relationship between China and the U.S. has changed clearly in their favor. We have two economic powers, in a tug of war over Oil reserves, and if this does not make you feel slightly worried or feel like we are living now in Michael T. Klare’s book Resource Wars, then wake up please. Have some Chinese tea.

War is ultimately economic, and those wars start in the market place first. Since March 23, 2005, China appears to have made a decision regarding both the economics of the United States, and a strategic decision regarding what they wish to obtain by revaluing their currency. Investors have been anticipating this day, however, may not have fully understood the significance of this day.

From this point forward, the United States Federal Reserve no longer matters. The balance of power has shifted from the West to the East. We are now all tied in someway to the Peoples Bank of China, and just have not got our new ATM cards yet! Maybe they are in the mail, maybe not. Maybe the home equity ATM machine is now closed. And, certain commodities, appear to no longer be “free” markets.

I do not mean to “freak you out” by drawing your attention to the sequence of days, and events and how they correspond to other key numbers. I admit that it is rather strange to suggest that China was spelling out in the Bond Market their new currency. It is in step with their personality to do so. However, on a more serious note, do you still need a reason to buy Gold?

© 2005 David Tribble
Editorial Archive

(I do trade commodities and I am not a financial advisor, but a student of history and
a careful student of trends in Oil. I love Scrabble and am a proud U.S. hoarder of precious metals.)

CONTACT INFORMATION
David Tribble
Sacramento, CA USA
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