President Bush is halfway through his 60-day tour of America to promote
his Social Security plan, and he recites some disturbing statistics. He
states that 16 workers supported every elderly recipient in 1950, but
there are only 3.3 workers per beneficiary today. The President asserts
that the number of retirees will almost double by 2031, increasing the
burden on younger Americans. At the same time, the money allocated to
each Social Security recipient has risen sharply. Bush also states that
a 30 year-old worker would see benefits cut by 27% at retirement if the
system is not reformed.
The
President has assured voters that his plan doesn't include higher
payroll taxes or lower payments to Americans 55 or older. Bush wants to
gradually phase in voluntary personal retirement accounts, which would
allow workers to direct a third of their payroll taxes to their
accounts. Workers would have a choice of investments in stock index
funds and bonds, which should appreciate faster than inflation. However,
some economists like Richard Berner believe the Administration's growth
projections for personal accounts are too optimistic, and rely heavily
on strong demand from the developing world, and atypically fast economic
expansion.
Americans
who choose not to participate in the private accounts program will
receive standard Social Security payments. However, Republicans have
admitted that younger employees will collect fewer benefits than their
parents. The Bush Administration plan claims that Social Security will
be "reformed to be permanently sustainable," but it doesn't
explain how.
Despite
the name, personal accounts wouldn't be under your direct control. The
money in these accounts would be administered by a government agency,
which would charge management fees. Like Social Security, personal
accounts could not be accessed before retirement, to prevent workers
from "playing the lottery" with the money. At age 47,
participants in the voluntary accounts will be further supervised when
they are automatically enrolled in a "life cycle portfolio."
This will divert the funds in the account into investments the
government considers least risky.
The
Bush proposal has attracted a great deal of organized opposition.
The
AARP attacked personal accounts, claiming they were too difficult for
most people to manage, and would make Social Security even more
unstable. Unions suspect that brokerage firms will profit from personal
accounts, as many corporations donated to pro-privatization lobbying
groups. AFL-CIO President John Sweeney criticized the Bush plan, calling
it "a risky scheme for America, but a sure bet for the financial
services industry."
Surprisingly,
much of the criticism of the Bush Administration's plan has come from
inside the government itself. Comptroller General David Walker, chief of
the Government Accountability Office, estimates that Social Security
will be bankrupt by 2018, unless the government raises taxes, decreases
benefits, or goes further into debt. He states that there is no
"trust fund," as taxes directly pay Social Security benefits,
and the excess is spent by Congress. The Congressional Budget Office
estimates that the transition to private accounts would cost $1.1
trillion between 2009 and 2015. Bush appointee Alan Greenspan stated his
concern for the future of Social Security when he stated, "Unless
productivity growth increases significantly ... either the retirees or
active workers, say in the year 2030, must have a significant slowdown
in their standard of living."
Democrats
have refused to consider the President's reforms, but haven't offered
their own strategy. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi stated that the
Republicans need to return money to the Social Security fund that was
diverted for other purposes. However, the Washington Times reports that
Bush's budget plan projects a deficit of $610 billion. This deficit is
bridged by spending the Social Security surplus. If this sum was raised
through income tax hikes, for example, it would require a steep 63%
increase! However, this radical reform would only be a temporary fix. It
wouldn't address the growing demographic imbalances between the huge
number of retiring Boomers, and the smaller productive Generations X and
Y.
Although
Democrats and Republicans agree that Social Security needs reform,
there's no consensus on how to fix the system. So far, the government
has suggested small changes, or denied the problem exists.
Greenspan
reprimanded Congress on their inaction, and pointed out that Social
Security obligations could be met through printing massive amounts of
money. He said, "We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at
whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing
power." Pumping excess money into the economy leads to high
inflation, erasing any economic gains American seniors earned through
decades of work. You may receive your full benefit check in the future,
but this may only pay for a bag of groceries.
What
can you do to protect your future? Don't rely on changing government
promises. Invest your savings in real assets that appreciate faster than
price inflation. Silver has gained 81.3% since 2001, while official
statistics on consumer inflation indicate that prices increased 10.3%.
Silver has outstripped mainstream stocks over the past 4 years, and
bonds are no longer a safe haven. Bond prices will continue to drop as
the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes filter into the economy.
Mortgage
rates will eventually rise, and hobble the real estate market.
In
addition to these macroeconomic trends, silver has a supply deficit, and
increasing demand in the developing world. It also has intrinsic value,
unlike the IOUs placed where the Social Security fund should be.
Don't
take the chance that Social Security will be much smaller or bankrupt
when you retire. If you don't want to take physical possession of your
silver, considering rolling over your traditional IRA into a precious
metal IRA. Unlike personal accounts, you can choose your coin dealer,
your fund management company, and the proportion of precious metals you
want to invest in. Don't rely on promises; take control of your
retirement.