|
In
July, I wrote about the United States' growing current account deficit,
largely driven by the huge trade deficit with Asia. To balance our
national "checkbook," enough foreign capital must flow into
America to offset the trade deficit. These purchases of assets and debt
primarily consist of Treasury securities, and are noted in the TIC
report. If the net inflows of capital don't match or exceed the trade
deficit, the dollar could drop and bond yields could skyrocket. After
two consecutive months of negative reports, the trend has reversed, and
we have now seen two months of capital inflows higher than the U.S.
trade deficit.
Unfortunately,
the latest TIC has some ominous undertones. Foreign purchases of
Treasuries dropped to their lowest level since September 2003, and
private overseas investors actually sold 3.3 billion more Treasury Bonds
and Notes than they bought. The divestment of Treasuries was compensated
for by a huge surge in hedge fund purchases of corporate bonds, a result
not likely to repeat. Hedge funds invest aggressively, and are quick to
dump a position if it's not profitable. Even U.S. citizens bought $146
billion in foreign assets in the past year, the highest amount since
1994.
The
$478 billion trade deficit this year to date has other implications. As
Warren Buffett pointed out in his annual letter to shareholders, America
is rapidly transferring its wealth to foreigners in exchange for cheap
goods. In 1980 America became a debtor nation, and overseas investors
now own over $3 TRILLION NET of U.S. assets. In fact, America is
practicing a sort of "reverse mercantilism" where we
facilitate imports, neglect exports, and encourage foreign banks to
accumulate huge dollar reserves.
Some
U.S. policymakers believe that a gradual decline in the dollar will
stimulate American exports. However, the 28% drop since 2002 hasn't even
slowed the trade deficit. Chinese manufacturing workers earn less than
$1 per hour, while Americans make nearly 20 times that amount. Even if
China revalued its currency by 30%, U.S. laborers still wouldn't be
competitive.
In
addition, decades of outsourcing have devastated the American
manufacturing base. If U.S. goods were cheap by global standards, what
would we sell? Most of our heavy industry is now located overseas.
As
I look around my office, I find very few items still made in this
country.
Although
Americans send billions of dollars a year overseas, they are still
shocked when foreigners try to spend their piles of green paper by
purchasing U.S. companies. Dollars have no intrinsic value; they are
worth only what you can exchange them for. If countries can't spend
them, why should they accept them at all? The falling value of the
dollar has made many nations nervous as they watch the purchasing power
of their currency reserves draining away. Countries such as Russia have
started swapping their depreciating dollars for euros and gold.
China
in particular has been shrewdly acquiring natural resources and hard
assets with their fiat money. It’s not surprising that their
government was angered by American political resistance to their bid for
Unocal. China has spent a huge portion of its dollar reserves on U.S.
Treasuries to finance American debts. However, they have sated their
demand for expensive, low-yielding bonds, and wish to diversify their
portfolio.
As
Warren Buffett has pointed out, foreign ownership of U.S. companies
"is an inevitable consequence of what we are doing in trade."
Despite President Bush's "Ownership Society" initiative,
Buffett has stated that America is heading towards a
"Sharecropper's Society." If the U.S. doesn't make some
radical changes, the future will involve sending a growing percentage of
American GDP to its creditors "simply as tribute for the
overindulgences of the past."
While
you can't reverse the trade deficit single-handedly, you can avoid
becoming a "sharecropper." First, reduce your debt levels and
increase your savings. Americans had a negative savings rate in July for
only the second time in 46 years, so break from the mainstream. You need
a cushion in case you lose your job, or a natural disaster strikes.
Second,
buy local products when you can, and conserve one of our biggest foreign
imports, oil and gas. Fuel isn't going to get cheaper anytime soon.
Consider downsizing your house and car to save on energy, not to mention
interest payments.
Third,
protect yourself against the depreciation of the dollar by diversifying
into hard assets like precious metals. Of course, you will need some
cash for daily expenses, but invest your savings in tangible goods whose
gains have outpaced inflation. Barry Bannister, Jim Rogers, and others
have concluded that we are in a bull market for commodities, so you
can't use the same investment strategies that were successful during the
tech boom of the 1990s. Buy commodities today, and stop sending so much
of your wealth to foreign owners.

© 2005 Jennifer Barry
Editorial
Archive
Contact
Information
Jennifer Barry
Lewisville, TX USA
Email l
Website
The
opinions of FSU contributors do not necessarily reflect those of
Financial Sense.
|