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US/Iran The study of gold brings one to study not only economics, but the geopolitical situation. In this piece, I address this component specifically. In the past months, I have predicted that gold would be weak, and that, by Dec 06, gold would be within $500 to $550. The gold market appears to be indicating that that is going to happen, and I am not going to recapitulate the whole discussion of many recent public articles as to why, but the gold price I predict will indeed happen – as long as there is not a major war. However. I have always said that a major war will rocket gold a minimum of $100 from where it is today, which is about $580. Upon following news and events on the horizon, particularly in Iraq and Iran, I believe that the West, led by the US is going to cream Iran. There are many reasons. IF this happens, you can forget my gold forecast of 500 to 550 by Dec 06. We will likely see at least $650 on the onset of that crisis within one week. If there is no war that I am suggesting, then gold will indeed fulfill my forecast. Why war with Iran? The Iranian situation combined with Iraq, and the fact that these two nations are central to the Middle East oil reserves is a literal time bomb. The US cannot allow Iraq to deteriorate into chaos. Iran is a major instigator in Iraq’s troubles. The nuclear issue with Iran is a side issue, compared to the geopolitical destabilization in the Middle East that Iran is fostering. Israel has not acted alone - yet Israel has stated for decades that they will not allow a radical Islamic nation to have an atomic bomb. Israel has often been willing to act alone to protect its security. Israel has not yet acted alone, but the criteria are clearly there for them to do it. Therefore, they already know the US is going to cream Iran in my estimation. The whole thing is already laid out. In the case of Iran, the US and Israel have aligned strategic interests in defanging Iran They will indeed attack Iran in the near future. The trouble is, Russia and China have clearly indicated that they will not allow UN actions against Iran, and not even meaningful economic sanctions. By doing so, the Security Council has effectively forced the US and Israel to act unilaterally, something Bush has not shown a hesitancy to do. Iran, mistakenly is emboldened by the Russian and Chinese support, but will run into a catastrophic war for them, and China and Russia will probably be dragged in somehow. This is my assessment. I have not included all the details for my point of view, and reasons for this assessment, but there are many facts, such as the US naval build up in the Persian Gulf – a massive enterprise. I believe that Bush and co are preparing, probably with at least the moral support of Israel, for a massive surprise unilateral strike on Iran. If this happens, gold will rocket a minimum of $100 within one week of the onset of hostilities, by my estimation. In my estimation, this situation is an imminent risk. I told my subscribers that the one thing that can propel gold now is a major new war. And, I am reasonably certain that such a thing is about to be unleashed. If I was more certain, I would cancel my gold projection of 500 to 550 right now. I am near this point of view, but not ready to absolutely say that is my new estimation. The Bush administration has been very good at keeping its secrets. If this war is coming our way, we will be surprised. Perhaps the only indication is of its urgency is the deterioration in Iraq and the natural impulses of the Bush administration to deal with that. And also the military / naval build up in the Gulf. I also expect that Iran, and also China and Russia, not being fools, are already in the process of pre placing assets and so on in this field of endeavor. Therefore, I am making a warning that the gold market could be very near a super flight to safety short term bull market in the event of a surprise attack on Iran. However, this probably will not override the overall macro environment that is downing gold if the actual attack does not happen. But if the situation becomes dire, and or if war breaks out with Iran, gold will rocket up from $100 to $200 in a few weeks time. If there is war with Iran, which will be a surprise, gold will be over $700 within one week of the inception. If there is no war with Iran, or as long as it has not started, I expect gold to remain within my projection of $500 to $550 by December. The macro economic situation is dictating that, again, for reasons I have already elaborated in my last 4 or so public articles. EU/Iran Iran just directly threatened the EU. I will include here a quote from the star struck Ahmadinejad From Iran who said last year that he was covered in a green light as he addressed a spell bound UN – according to him. What I really think will happen is that he will be bathed in a green light from the US that is not very flattering to his health – or Iran’s. I also have to say that this US president is not a guy to play games with. He carefully gets his ducks in order and then strikes hard. Regardless of what you think of him, or whether he is right or wrong, this man Bush is not to be played with. I think he has a surprise for Iran, especially if the US congress Republicans get hammered in the Nov election. If the Republicans lose big, Bushy will act with haste to finish what he has started… I am serious. That will for sure include a plan for Iran in 07. If he attacks Iran, what are the Democrats going to do? Not support a new war???????? No way. That is a bit tongue in cheek, but, you watch, that is what will happen. This country is not to be messed with in wars – we have a very much alive war spirit, since the very beginning of this country- that spirit is alive and well now. If we feel we have to fight, look out. Whether Bush has good reasons is another matter altogether. The fact is, a war is in the making. We will have to deal with the consequences. Also, I am going to say this. China and Russia are not ready for total war with the US. What they actually do with us in the Middle East is another matter. People can be stupid. Many disastrous wars have happened in the last century because of stupid leaders. We live with the results. There is nothing we can do about it. The Middle East has roughly 2/3 of the world’s known oil reserves. Do the math. This whole situation, Iraq, Iran, Russia, China, excepting Muslim extremism possibly, is about the vital energy resources the world needs in the next 30 years. If there is a new war, the CRB will recover, as will gold. That is the only thing on the near term horizon that I can foresee that will buttress gold. If this war does not happen, gold is going to 500 to 550 by Dec 06. Obviously, oil will skyrocket if the war persists and we will see $100 oil at the minimum within several months. I am not certain this war will happen, but what I have outlined are the results for Gold, Oil, and the CRB if it does happen. The CRB could rocket up 100 points within a month. In any case, the EU is very afraid of further Muslim violence. France had on the order of 80,000 cars burned last year in Muslim insurrections, and at the same time that insurrection threatened to spread across the EU and scared the hell out of them. Muslims account for 10% of France’s population. The overall EU has similar Muslim exploding, pissed off, youthful immigrant citizens. The bottom line is this: After Iran’s direct threats to the EU, and the fact that Iran is well known to support Muslim insurrection activity in the EU and Iraq, the EU will look the other way if the US acts unilaterally to annihilate Iran, actually will be happy about it. Anyway, here is the quote from Iran’s religio madman President – who by the way, believes he is to personally usher in the next Muslim messiah – I am serious friends. We are not going to escape a major confrontation between the West, per se, and Iran in the coming year….And it may come soon. Ahmadinejad
Delivers Jihad Ultimatum To Europe
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