FEDHEADS
by John Mackenzie
June 15, 2004
Over the past several
years I have become accustomed to the emotional and suspect diatribes of
some in the Gold Advisor Community. Filtering this white noise has done
wonders to preserve capital and better helped me to understand the
dynamics of the Gold market's gyrations.
I do believe many in the Advisor Community have grossly underestimated the Federal Reserve's will to preserve the status quo through it's reckless and historic endeavors.
Today was a pivotal day for the FED.
We had Chairman Greenspan bullhorning against the incoming tide:
GREENSPAN: NOT CONCERNED WITH LEVEL OF CONSUMER DEBT
GREENSPAN: NO CONCERN FOREIGN BANKS WILL DUMP DOLLARS
GREENSPAN: NOT WORRIED ABOUT U.S. HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE
GREENSPAN: SAYS SURPRISED IF HOME PRICES RISE FURTHER
GREENSPAN: SAYS BOOM IN HOME SALES UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE
GREENSPAN: WAGES LIKELY TO "CATCH UP" TO PRODUCTIVITY
GREENSPAN: LONG-TERM FISCAL OUTLOOK 'DISTURBING'
GREENSPAN: HIGHER TAX REVENUES WILL CAP 2004 DEFICIT
GREENSPAN: ENERGY PRICES NOT FACTOR IN FED POLICY YET
GREENSPAN: HIGH ENERGY PRICES COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
GREENSPAN: CAUTIONS THAT FORECASTS ARE OFTEN MISTAKEN
GREENSPAN: BENIGN INFLATION IS 'GENERAL VIEW' OF FED
GREENSPAN: FED BELIEVES INFLATION IS NOT A PROBLEM
Then, we were served up the Tsunami:
Greenspan: U.S. ECONOMIC RECOVERY NOT SHORT-LIVED
Followed by this Gem:
Greenspan: REPEATS THAT FED MAY HAVE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
My take on this outpouring of missives is simply this:
Chairman Greenspan is deeply concerned about all of the above. And for all of the dismal warnings above... once again, Gold was capped for an under $6 gain.
The Carry Trade has barely begun to unwind and those very large players are growing increasingly concerned about escape. This is precisely why we are seeing the rampant and uncontrolled expansion of OTC Derivatives. No door is too wide and there is clearly not enough room for escape. This has truly become and all or nothing game.
Gold, in light of the above, is underperforming.
I do firmly believe these reckless speculators will make every conceivable attempt at forestalling alternate & honest alternatives. This will fail in short order as I suspect we will see and elephant or two attempt to leave the herd and rush the exit. This will unmask the Fed's only real alternative... Hyperinflation, the likes of which we have yet to see.
When this begins, we will see gold break free of it's paper shackles.
Between now and then, I believe we will see Gold Equities come under pressure as the Dollar and Yields begin to rise concurrently. The trade will then reverse in short order as the Fed begins and "All Out" campaign of rampant expansion of bank credits, monetization and aggregate expansion through intervention.
In the end, it will end badly.
When, I believe sometime in late 2005.
After 2005 Gold will begin to ascend to it's proper monetary role.
Simply put, this is one "honest money" advisor's opinion.
©
2004 John Mackenzie
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