FSU Contributor: Bonds, James, Bonds by Ernie Mardaga 02/11/2005

BONDS, JAMES, BONDS
by Ernie Mardaga
February 11, 2005

Puzzled Pundits Ponder Plunging Payouts

Bonds are the news this week and they have the pundits scratching their heads. The "smart money" outlook was for bond prices to fall and bond yields to rise. Well ...

The short-term technical picture is positive
	Prices are soaring.
	30-year yields have been leading the way down.
	10-year yields have been more resistant, but the picture is still bullish.
	5-year yields are the most sluggish of the three reviewed here because they are feeling the heat of the Fed's short-term rate hikes. This picture is still developing.
The long-term picture is generally positive
	Increasingly, but tentatively, bullish.
	Very bullish.
	Bullish.
	Arguable.
And most importantly, ...
	So go bond yields, so go long-term mortgage rates, keeping the housing boom alive. 1-yr Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) rates are more closely tied to the short-term rates determined by the Fed. But as shown in our essay of 1/27/05 ("Still ARMed"), ARM rates will not likely rise point-for-point until the spread between these rates closes.
How low will they go?

CONTACT INFORMATION
Ernie Mardaga
Columbia, MD USA
www.yourmutualfunds.com
Email