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Five of the nine declines were stock market crashes, with declines greater than 15 percent, and a sixth was nearly a crash, plunging 13.2 percent! The smallest decline was still a significant 4.7 percent.
The declines typically started in the July/August period and lasted into the September/October period. Eight of the nine were declining over the autumn equinox, and all nine declined during the month of September. Here’s the data: 1997: A stock market crash that began on August 7th at 8,340.14 and fell for 57 days to a low of 6,936.45 on October 28th, a 1,403.69 drop, or 16.8 percent. 1998: A stock market crash that began on July 17th at 9,412.64 and fell for 32 trading days to a low of 7,329.70 on September 1st, a 2,032.94 plunge, or 21.6 percent. It hung around that low through October 8th, hitting a bottom that day at 7,399.78. 1999: A near-crash that began on August 25th at 11,428.94 and lasted through October 15th when it fell to 9,911.42, 36 trading days, a 13.2 percent sell-off. 2000: Another stock market crash, this one commencing September 6th at 11,401.19 and lasting until October 18th’s 9,656.12 bottom, a 30 trading day plunge that saw prices fall 1,745.07 points, or 15.3 percent. 2001: Again, a stock market crash. It began on August 27th at 10,441.37 and lasted through September 21st, bottoming at 8,062.34, a 2,379.03, 22.7 percent bloodbath that took only 14 trading days. 2002: Again, the sixth stock market crash in a row if you consider the 13.2 percent 1999 wipeout a crash. It started innocently enough on August 22nd, at 9,077.01, and lasted until October 10th at 7,197.49. When the carnage was over, the losses were 1,879.52 points, or 20.7 percent. 2003: Even in 2003, when a glorious rally was in full swing, the Dow paused to follow tradition by dropping a measurable 4.7 percent, or 455.61 points from 9,686.08 on September 19th to 9,230.47 on September 30th. 2004: A significant 6.2 percent drop followed suit, markets in the tank from September 13th’s 10,348.39 high to October 25th’s 9,708.40 low, a 639.99 sell-off. 2005: One of the milder declines, we still saw a quite tradable and profitable 5.1 percent decline that started from September 12th’s intraday high of 10,701.81 and lasted through October 13th, 2005’s 10,156.46 low, a 545.35 point drop. Our key trend-finder indicators should generate new “sells” to signal 2006’s decline.
“They
reeled and staggered like a drunken man,
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