|
 In
researching my recent series of articles Three
Bears No Goldilocks, I noticed that Ravi Batra recently
published a new book. Batra is probably best known for his late '80's
best seller The
Great Depression of 1990. While the Great Depression of 1990
did not come to pass, the book remains an excellent read for its
introduction to social cycles. All totaled, Batra has written at least a
dozen books, many of which have rather pessimistic titles - among his
last couple were The
Great American Deception, and Greenspan's
Fraud. Both are excellent books, but when I noticed the
optimistic title of his latest work, The
New Golden Age, I was a bit taken aback. Could this be a
contrary indicator? Now that Dr. Batra has turned bullish, is this a
sign that things could really start falling apart, as he has long been
predicting?
Well, it is not quite that simple. Ravi Batra is a cyclical analyst, and bases many of his predictions on what he calls the Law of Social Cycles, which was pioneered by his late teacher P.R. Sarkar. I first encountered this theory about ten years ago when I read the above mentioned Great Depression of 1990 and it has remained with me as a useful and interesting way of looking at the world. Batra re-introduces the theory in Chapter 4 of his latest work, and it is essential to the understanding of how he believes we will arrive at the New Golden Age. The Four Types of People The Law of Social Cycles states that while people in any society are all relatively similar - we all have generally the same goals, desires and ambitions - we differ in the way we go about achieving our goals. An individual's specific methods for achieving success depend on his physical and psychological makeup. Essentially, there are four different types of people who find basic fulfillment in four different kinds of ways:
Social Classes and Social Cycles Groups of each type of people make up the social classes in society. Under this theory, classes are not divided by income level, but rather by disposition. In any society, it is the warriors who defend the nation and keep the peace; intellectuals develop religion, art, law and new inventions; acquisitors manage the farms, factories, financial institutions and stores; and the laborers do the routine work - waiting tables, collecting trash, and other low-tech, low skill jobs. As should be evident, each class contributes something vitally important to society, and society could not function without all the classes working together in harmony. Unfortunately, not all classes are rewarded equally according to their contributions. Furthermore though all exist simultaneously in society, at any given time only one of the four classes is the dominant class and therefore rules society. (The laborers, however, never rule - more on this later.) How do you know which is the dominant class? Batra suggests asking which is the most admired profession in society. If common people look up to soldiers or other warrior professions (see Starship Troopers) as the heroes of society, it is an age of warriors. If the young people aspire to become priests, or enter the clergy, or become poets or musicians or scientists (yes, such periods did exist - and still do in other parts of the world) it is an age of intellectuals. When the majority aspires to become like the super rich - to make hundreds of millions of dollars with little or no work, and enjoy private jets and exclusive lifestyles - it is an age of the acquisitors, as we find ourselves in now. No single class can remain dominant indefinitely, and power passes from class to class in a prescribed order, or cycle. The age of warriors - which bring strict order to society and a return to fundamental values - is followed by an age of intellectuals, which over time merges into an age of acquisitors. Batra describes the progression through the age of acquisitors on page 70: Once the majority of intellectuals become acquisitive, materialism degenerates into supermaterialism. There are no more religious or ethical restraints on the avarice of the elite, and as the public follows its leaders, everything gets commercialized.This is right about where we as a society find ourselves now, Batra argues. As the acquisitors have become dominant, most members of the other classes have been forced into to the laboring class in order to support both themselves and the appetites of the acquisitors (through interest payments on debt). At the same time, nearly everyone aspires to the lifestyle of the acquisitors -- those who don't are society's misfits and outcasts. Further, the acquisitors make a show of making it seem possible that such a lifestyle is available to anyone, if only you would just work harder (or smarter). For example, see Trump and Kiyosaki (Rich Dad)'s book, Why We Want You to be Rich. But the acquisitor age is just the flip side of the age of laborers -- the acquisitor-cum-laborer age, as Batra calls it. Laborers are in the majority, but the acquisitors are the ones holding the reigns of power. This age of laborers is characterized by:
For younger people - say under 40 - this kind of lifestyle is all we have ever known, and therefore we tend to believe that things have always been like this and always will be. People over 40 may remember a time when society was different, when morals were stricter, when people stayed married, courtesy and honor played more prominent roles in relationships, and some things remained sacred. These are characteristics of a previous age. The power of this theory is in the ability to step back and place our current way of life into a larger context. We can use the theory to see clearly where we have been, as well as where we are going. As more and more people tire of life on the money treadmill, a new era begins to take shape, just as spring always and inevitably takes shape from winter. Disgruntled intellectuals and warriors displaced into the laborer class join forces with the masses to bring about massive social change. Such a change is known as a revolution and with it comes the dawning of a new age. One of my favorite quotes, from Peter Drucker's 1993 book Post Capitalist Society goes: Every few hundred years in Western Civilization, there occurs a sharp transformation . . . Within a few short decades, society rearranges itself - its worldview; its basic values; its social and political structure; its arts; its key institutions. Fifty years later, there is a new world, and the people born can't even imagine the world in which their grandparents live and into which their own parents were born.The larger point is that things are not static - they never are. In fact, with the rapid rollout of technology and the educational potential it brings, things now are less static than they have probably ever been. The idea of revolution may not sound like something to be optimistic about, but Batra points out that revolutions need not be violent. If the revolution is led by warriors, yes it probably will be - but this country already had one violent revolution. It is not necessary that we repeat the event. As Batra puts it: Rebelling against the elite is not easy; it takes immense courage to oppose a regime and become a revolutionary. So those who muster such courage, no matter what their initial grouping, are the true soldiers who then start another warrior age, which begins with an ascending or magnanimous phase. With the return of the warrior mentality, many features of the first eras of warriors make a comeback, but some novel and progressive institutions also appear because of inevitable social evolution through time. The acquisitors, having lost their credibility, go back to a lower status. The public remembers their acts of oppression and imposes restraints on their acquisitiveness. This way the social cycle goes on and on..."In other words, if the revolution is led by intellectuals, there is no reason it need be violent. The dissolution the British as well as Soviet Empires were both revolutionary changes that took place with very little bloodshed. We can already see the seeds of a new era being sown and sprouting. One of the major signs is the increasing awareness of the problems that our current way of living creates - socially, psychologically, economically, environmentally and spiritually. Just one such example is this article: Why Having More No Longer Makes Us Happy. Yes, this era is winding down in an endgame, but the ending is just a prelude to a new beginning. I will have much more to say about this in future installments. But don't get too excited just yet. Before we get to the New Golden Age that Batra speaks of, things are probably going to have to get much worse for many people. This creates the impetus for massive change, as people reach a point where they can no longer stand the prevailing conditions and are moved to take action. But Batra makes the point that the future is not set in stone. With knowledge of the social cycles, we can help speed it up through our own actions, and with awareness of how it is likely to unfold, we are better armed to stay out of harm's way. So how much worse will things get, and how much longer until the Golden Age? That comes next week, in Part II of my review.
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