QUICK LOOK REPORT #22: NYSE
by Dr. Stephen Rinehart
March 29, 2006

Background:

Quick Look Reports will look at the dominant trend in an Index, Equity or Commodity and for this report at some possible short-term NYSE daily trends which could emerge from the dominant cycle(s) (the dataset for the NYSE is the daily closing prices from 1966). Quick Look Report # 22 updates the daily closing prices of the daily NYSE Index from 1966 through Jan 2006 (Reference earlier Quick Look Report #19) and estimates the possible behavior pattern for the next two months in the NYSE Composite Index.

The predicted versus actual closing prices for Feb and March 2006 in the NYSE Index daily closings is shown in Chart 1. The NYSE Index developed a higher 12-day trading wave than usual for this period causing some short term volatility – about as exciting as watching paint dry. The NYSE continues on its linear upward M3-dominated trend but the game maybe reaching a tipping point in July 2006. It maybe the combination of continued rate increases and coming reduction in consumer spending is going to finally take its toll on world indices in the latter part of 2006 and perhaps significantly going into early 2007.

Chart 2 shows a possible waveform in the NYSE daily closings for April and May 2006 as we continue to grind towards a mid-summer top and possible trouble in the latter part of 2006.

Bottom Line:

1. The estimates given in this study (and the other studies) still do not predict a continued upward trend in the NYSE Daily closings after late June/July 2006. The timeframe of interest continues to focus on late June thru mid-July for a broad (rolling) top forming in NYSE Composite Index. It still looks like sometime of broad peak by mid-summer. A possible target for a high in the NYSE is 8652 by mid-summer.
2. This Index may start to look ugly by mid-2007 but short term the trendline is still holding as the NYSE makes a try at its final top for possibly July 2006 but it depends on developing geo-political fronts and weather this summer in Gulf of Mexico.

© 2006 Dr. Stephen Rinehart
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CONTACT INFORMATION
Dr. Stephen Rinehart
Lynn Haven, FL USA
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DISCLAIMER: The author is not a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, the author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.