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QUICK LOOK REPORT #41: 
Short Term Trends
Short Term Trends
by Dr. Stephen Rinehart
February 8, 2007

Background:

This Qwik Look Report # 41 is an update to our short term trend predictions from Oct 2006. 

The results are based on a specialized (trend following – does not use cycles) code utilizing short term turns. It does not get you out at tops or in at bottoms (but one can use cycles and other turn indicators to estimate timing of a coming turn). Some of the commodities such as corn and wheat have enjoyed an exceptional rally over the past several months since the trends were presented in Oct 2006. The major market indices have also continued to trend upwards but many of the stocks may be now starting to break-down so caution is warranted. The code is not based on a moving five-day average but use a special weighting algorithm over the daily closing prices and has been extensively back-tested ( and traded) on the Russell Index as well as S&P 500 Index and NYSe Composite Index. It has been very successful in actual trading for several years. Its application to commodities and currencies is relatively new business. The results being presented are already several days old and are intended only as guidelines (to try and increase the probability of successful trades) for your financial decision making. As always, do your own due diligence before making any decisions. In the future I will just present the Table of Qwik Look Trends without commentary.

Table 1 Qwik Look Trends: The following (i.e., represents ongoing research) table is to be used a screening tool for short term trends only in currencies, bonds, commodities and some stocks. It involves some specialized codes (under testing) to help stop being whip-sawed in/out of markets/stocks. Some of these equities can turn on a dime such as currencies and commodities which should only be played by the professional/experienced traders. Oterh items tend to persist in much longer term trends (such as major markets). The results presented have absolutely nothing to do with any intermediate or long-term trends/cycles in the markets or equities. In actual practice, the code needs to be run each day. However, it did identify some Asian ETFs are continuing to run strong and the upward trends in our major markets (from Oct 2006) are still intact.

Table 1. QWIK look trends for Feb 06, 2007

ITEM PAGE 1

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

DATE: FEB 06 2007 STEPHEN A RINEHART

ENERGY (FUTURE)

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

REMARKS

HEATING OIL

SELL

STILL A SELL, MAY BE A SHORT TERM BOTTOM

LIGHT CRUDE

NEUTRAL

SELL

FLASHED SHORT TERM BUY;UNCONFIRMED

NAT GAS

BUY

NEUTRAL

FLASHED A BUY IN MID-JANUARY;MINOR TOP

NY UNLEAD GAS

DATASET INCOMPLETE

PROPANE GAS

NEUTRAL

FLASHED RECENT BUY;UNCONFIRMED BOTTOM

FOREX

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

REMARKS

AUD/USD

NEUTRAL

UNCLEAR AS TO FUTURE DIRECTION

BP/USD

NEUTRAL

SLIGHT POSITIVE BIAS; UNCLEAR DIRECTION

CAD/USD

SELL

CAD STILL WEAK; DOWNTREND

EURO/USD

SELL

FLASHED RECENT SELL;UNCONFIRMED

YEN/USD

SELL

RECENT WEAKNESS, DOWNTREND

MEX PESO/USD

NEUTRAL

FLASHED A RECENT BUY; UNCONFIRMED

AS RAND/USD

NEUTRAL

NOT A BUY; SLIGHT DOWNTREND

SWISS F’ANC/USD

SELL

FLASHED RECENT SELL

USD INDEX

BUY

POSITIVE BIAS; BUY FROM LATE DECEMBER

INDICES

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

REMARKS

DJIA

BUY

NEUTRAL

CONTINUED BUY; UPTREND INTACT, BE CAREFUL

NASDAQ 100

BUY

FLASHED RECENT BUY 

RUSSELL 2000

BUY

CONTINUED BUY; NICE UPTREND INTACT

NYSE COMPOSITE

BUY

 

CONTINUED BUY; UPTREND REMAINS INTACT

NYSE INTL 100

BUY

NEUTRAL

 

LOOKS LIKE STARTING TO FORM TOP, 

NYSE HEALTH

BUY

NEUTRAL

 

FLASHED A BUY IN LATE NOVEMBER

NYSE ENERGY

BUY

FLASHED A RECENT BUY; WEATHER COLD

S&P 500

BUY

CONTINUED BUY; SOLID UPTREND STILL INTACT

NK 225 

BUY

NEUTRAL

FLASHED BUY AGAIN IN DEC 2006; INTACT TREND

CBOE OIL INDEX

BUY

FLASHED A RECENT BUY;VOLATILE

CRB INDEX

NEUTRAL

FLASHED UNCONFIRMED RECENT BUY

PHLX BANK IND

NEUTRAL

COMING OFF A SELL;NEUTRAL

PHLX SEMI C IND

NEUTRAL

SELL

MAY BE MINOR BOTTOM ; NOT YET A BUY

PHLX UTILITY IND

BUY

NEUTRAL

FLASHED A RECENT BUY; NOT YET CONFIRMED

PHLX HOUSE IND

BUY

NEUTRAL

UPTREND REMAINS INTACT!? BE VERY CAREFUL

METALS

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

REMARKS

GOLD

BUY

FLASHED RECENT BUY; UPTREND

SILVER

BUY

NEUTRAL

FLASHED RECENT BUY;NEUTRAL (+ BIAS)

PALLADIUM

NEUTRAL

FLASHED EARLIER BUY;NOW NEUTRAL (+ BIAS)

PLATINUM

NEUTRAL

SELL

NEUTRAL;FLASHED UNCONFIRMED SELL

COPPER

SELL

NO BUY YET, STILL WEAKNESS

ITEM PAGE 2

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

DATE: FEB 06 2007 STEPHEN A RINEHART

MEATS

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

REMARKS

FEEDER CATTLE

SELL

WEAK; DOWNTREND BUT LOOKING FOR BOTTOM

LIVE CATTLE

NEUTRAL

SLIGHT POSITIVE BIAS

LEAN HOGS

BUY

FLASHED RECENT BUY; UPTREND

PORK BELLIES

BUY

FLASHED RECENT BUY; UPTREND

RATES

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

REMARKS

US T-NOTE 2 YR

NEUTRAL

FLATLINED

US T-NOTE 5 YR

SELL

FLASHED A RECENT SELL; DOWNTREND

US T-NOTE 10 YR

SELL

FLASHED A RECENT SELL; DOWNTREND

US T-BOND 30 YR

SELL

DOWNTREND INTACT

FED FUNDS RATE

NEUTRAL

SELL

DOWNSIDE BIAS

EURODOLLARS

SELL

FLASHED A RECENT SELL SIGNAL

1 MONTH LIBOR

NEUTRAL

SLIGHT DOWNSIDE BIAS

GRAINS

BUY

NEUTRAL

SELL

REMARKS

CORN

 

NEUTRAL

SLIGHT POSITIVE BIAS; GREAT RECENT RALLY

OATS

SELL

FLASHED A RECENT SELL SIGNAL

ROUGH RICE

 

NEUTRAL

SELL

FLASHED A RECENT SELL SIGNAL 

SOYBEANS

BUY

NEUTRAL

FLASHED A BUY IN DECEMBER;POSITIVE BIAS

SOYBEAN MEAL

BUY

FLASHED A RECENT BUY; POSITIVE BIAS

SOYBEAN OIL

BUY

NEUTRAL