"Inflationary Pressure Waves are Breaking"

ZINC – Monthly (1994-2004)

At the end of 1996, the price of ZINC started to thrust out of a 3 year long triangle to mark an important price zone. This final impulse-movement out of the completing green triangle was at the same time the first wave within a new triangle. After 5 waves and 7 years the red triangle was breaking out and pulling back to the apex at 8000. Since the end of 2003 ZINC is thrusting towards 17000. From 8000 to 17000 = 112.5%

ZINC – Daily (Octobre 2003 – April 2004)

The daily price chart shows that the ZINC thrust is as well using small consolidation triangles to rise sharply after some time of pause. The ZINC price needs 5 waves for such a consolidation phase and no significant pullback. At the moment ZINC has completed wave 4 and is now ready for the last wave 5 to break above upper leg. After having done so ZINC will start rising fast again.

TIN – Monthly (1994-2004)

TIN had been captured within the boundaries of a massive 7 years triangle as well. When the price of ZINC was breaching the lower leg in the years 2001-2002 a little bit, TIN was breaking fast to the downside at the same time. The price of TIN fell approx. 1000 points to 3500 before reaching the 5000 level again 2 years later. Since TIN is thrusting sustainable to the upside since the middle of 2003, the break of the lower leg was therefore a fake-breakout. This shows that ZINC is moving "smoother and cleaner" when compared to TIN (more weak hands = weaker support zone). First price objective for TIN is 7400 – from the (prolonged) apex-line at 4500 = 64%.

TIN – Daily (Novembre 2003 – April 2004)

This daily TIN price chart shows that the price objective of 7400 had already being reached and that TIN is continuing to thrust to the upside strongly. 8400 seems to mark an important resistance zone that might be transformed into support soon (or later after another triangular consolidation period).

LEAD – Monthly (1994-2004)

LEAD is thrusting explosively out of a 5 years long triangle. First price objective (56000) from the apex was being trespassed relatively fast. From 45000 to 90000 = 100%. Previously marked resistance at 85000 was crossed impressively and might suggest that LEAD will be correcting and testing this important price mark before continuing to rise above 90000.

LEAD – Daily (Octobre 2003 – April 2004)

The daily price chart shows that this is exactly being the case since the beginning of February 2003: LEAD is consolidating within a triangle to test the important 85000 price mark which is as well the apex. Interestingly that wave 4 is still not over and that LEAD might now start rising to the apex before rising strongly above 92500.

COFFEE (CSCE Price) – Monthly (1994-2004)

COFFEE is one of my favourite asset classes at the moment. COFFEE had been in an downside trend since the middle of 1997 when the 27500 price was being marked a last time before building a bottom at around 5000 points. 5 years later COFFEE began to trend sideways within a triangle in the middle of 2002. Recently COFFEE succeeded to break above upper leg and is now either pulling back near the apex or starting to thrust right away. From 5000 to next bigger resistance at 10000 = 100%. From 5000 to 27500 = 350%.

COFFEE (CSCE Price) – Daily (Octobre 2003 – April 2004)

The daily price chart shows that the pullback to the apex is almost completed. The COFFEE price is ready to explode/thrust.

COFFEE (LIFFE Price) – Monthly (1994-2004)

Similar chart pattern for the LIFFE COFFEE price. The breakout already occurred and a pullback seems to be underway. From 500 to 1500 = 200%. From 500 to 4000 = 600%

COFFEE (LIFFE Price) – Daily (Octobre 2003 – April 2004)

The daily chart shows that the pullback to the apex is finished and that the LIFFE-COFFEE price is already thrusting to the upside to overcome first resistance at around 850.

COCOA – Monthly (1994-2004)

The COCOA price was at the end of a 3 years long triangle back in 1997, but it seems that it was too early for COCOA to rise substantially. The price tried to thrust but could not rise sustainable, fell about 50% from 1500 to 750 before starting to rise 100% to 1500 again and further to 2300. The movement from 1500 to 2300 was wave 1 within another triangle that seems to be ready to thrust now. The apex of this second triangle was again pointing to around 1400. The break above upper leg already occurred and it seems that the COCOA price is firstly pulling back to 1400 points before being able to thrust.

COCOA – Daily (Octobre 2003 – April 2004)

The daily COCOA price chart shows that the pullback to 1445 is on its way and almost completed. COCOA is ready to thrust to the upside.

NATURAL GAS – Daily (July 1994 – April 2004)

The winters are getting colder and the price of NATURAL GAS is rising strongly. Since 2000 NATURAL GAS is fluctuating extremely between $2 and $9. Yet, this price volatility has been within the boundaries of a triangle! Eventhough the apex at $6 is lying in the year 2005/2006, a breakout can occur anytime. The thrust is probably to cross the $9 barrier and to take $10 as resistance. The thrust often is the same length as the first wave within the triangle which was from $2 to $9 (=$7). Therefore, a-from-the-apex-at-$6-thrusting triangle with same length as wave 1 might cross $13 in the upswing to come ($7+$6).

NATURAL GAS INDEX – Daily (April 1996 – April 2004)

The NATURAL GAS INDEX price pattern look a bit different than the NATURAL GAS FUTURES. Anyway, the INDEX shows more clearly that the it is likely to correct down to 175 points before starting the final impulse movement which will break the upper leg and start thrusting.

The USD-INDEX is at the apex of the little (green) triangle at the moment. The decision if this triangle either breaks to the up- or downside will be decided in the next hours/days.

The EURO-INDEX is still trading near the intact upside trendlines. The upside trend is not broken – only because the EURO breached the lower leg. 2004 price objective is still 140/150 points (= about 1,40/1,50 against the USD).

A smaller time-framed chart of the EURO-INDEX shows that the Euro began its fulminant rise in May 2002 thanks to a 16 month long triangle. The thrust-trendchannels (blue lines) show where the EURO is trading at the moment. Since the beginning of 2003 the EURO was in a triangular price formation again and the breakout already occurred at the end of 2003. Since then the breakout had marked strong resistance at 130 points and seems to be pulling back to the apex of this triangle at around 117 before starting to thrust above 130. This pullback would suggest that the lower blue trendline must be marked again before wanting to touch the upper one.

The GOLD PRICE in EUROS is starting to thrust. A last fast pullback might occur within a day or two before starting to shoot above 350 Euros for one ounce of gold.

The AUSTRALIAN-DOLLAR has been rising since August 2002 after having fluctuated within a 15 months long triangle. The thrust still is intact and it seems that the AUSSIE-DOLLAR needs to touch the lower trendchannel-line before starting to rise to the direction of the upper one again.

The GOLD PRICE in AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS could not rise during two triangular price phases. The second triangle is about being broken to the upside. This will suggest that the GOLD PRICE calculated in AUSSIE DOLLARS will be rising again after more than 2 years of not being able to trespass the 6.0-ratio.

The CANADIAN DOLLAR is thrusting out of a 24 month long triangle since the very end of 2002. The 75 index points were strong resistance, but were crossed successfully and taken as support since October 2003. Until now, the CANDO tested the 75 points five times. This price mark will be strong support in the future if the CANDO continues to rise.

The GOLD PRICE in CANADIAN DOLLARS is about to rise substantially again. The first time it rose strongly was in the beginning of 2001 when the green triangle was completing. The second (blue) triangle is to overcome the strong 5.5-ratio-barrier. If the CANADIAN DOLLAR and GOLD are rising in the near future and at the same time this ratio-triangle is thrusting to the upside, then this would suggest that GOLD is rising stronger than the CANDO.

The SWISS FRANC seems to be pulling back to the apex at 75 points before crossing the 80/85 strong resistance points. On the other hand can the thrust be successfully holding above78 points without pulling back to the apex building a triangular price formation at the moment with 78 points as lower leg and apex.

Because the SWISS FRANC was rising that strong in the past, the GOLD PRICE in SWISS FRANCS could not rise substantially since 2000. This already changed a few days ago when the CHF-GOLD PRICE successfully pulled back to the apex after breaking above the 5.0-ratio-barrier. After 4 years the GOLDPRICE is finally rising in CHF-terms as well.

The JAPANESE YEN started to rise strongly in September 2003 thanks to the impact of a triangular price formation. The thrust above the 90 points resistance zone was successful and continued to rise to 95 points. Just before trying to cross the 94/96 points (and therefore being able to go towards the 100 points), the YEN crashed to test and confirm the 90 points before trying to breach the 100 now.

The GOLD PRICE in YEN started to rise in the beginning of 2001 for about 2 years. Then, another consolidation-triangle was being formed to stop the price rise. This triangle is about to be completed and the break above upper leg is approaching.

The BRITISH POUND is trading between strong support at 180 points and strong resistance at 190 points.

The GOLD PRICE in BRITISH POUND is slowly but surely rising since October 1999 – why exactly one month before the USD-gold price started its rise because of the Washington Agreement? At the moment the POUND-GOLD PRICE is rising fast again.

One of the most interesting currencies in the gold market is the SA-RAND at the moment. Its fulminant 100% rise in only 2 years began in December 2001. Whether the Rand will be able to cut across the strong resistance at 0.16 will be decided by the already-breaking-out (or thrusting) Rand at the very moment. This might be the first fake-breakout to the upside before turning into a downside trend.

Since the RAND is rising faster than GOLD at the moment, the RAND-GOLD PRICE has been pulling back to the direction of the apex. A thrust to the upside is about to occur imho.