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Yesterday,
both gold and silver were breaking out of
triangular price formations at approximately 10:30am NY.
Gold
Wednesday 7th April 2004

Silver
Wednesday 7th April 2004

At
the same time, the USD Index was trading at the very end
of a triangle that was building up for 3 days.

Because
the USD was still holding slightly at its apex, but gold
and silver were already exploding out of their respective
triangles, the metals were anticipating
that the USD would break to the downside. And they were
right:


Gold
Wednesday 7th April 2004

Silver
Wednesday 7th April 2004

Gold
was breaking and thrusting out of its triangle from $419
to $423 at which resistance zone it was building up
another triangular consolidation formation for about 66
minutes. At 12:05pm gold was rising in a sharp thrust
above $423, but suddenly the price collapsed beneath $423
and found support at $422. Again, the $6-Rule was not
being breached thanks to gold's second triangle which was
not able to thrust. It was not a fake-breakout, because
the price was not crashing beneath the apex at $422.
Similar phenomenon occurred in the silver market: The
second triangle began to thrust sharply after gold did the
first move. Silver tried to pass the resistance at $8.24,
but as gold surprisingly went down, silver as well started
to trade beneath its respective resistance zone. At
13:00pm, gold tried to rise to $423 again after having
found support at $422. Similar price behavior for silver,
but as gold's final try was not successful, it took its
support at $422 and waited for the end of the NY-trading
session. Same should have happened to the price of silver:
but after the final attempt to rise at 13:00pm, silver did
NOT take $8.20 as support but fell further to $8.16
showing that silver was not only following gold's
movements closely, but was under a more intense selling
pressure.
US-Dollar-Index
Thursday 8th April 2004
The
head and shoulder formation of the USD-Index broke down.
First support was found at 88.1 from which the Dollar
began rising fast to 88.8 slightly above the current
neckline of the H-S-formation. This behavior is not
uncommon and labeled as "a classical pullback".
The consolidation period above the neckline is currently
taking the shape of a triangle to decide whether this
neckline shall be taken as support again to try overcome
resistances at 89.4. If failing, the loss in the USD will
accelerate.
Feel
free to send me your comments and how you feel about all
the triangles.
HAPPY
TRADING, GO GOLD & GATA!! |