FSO Home  l  FSU Editorials  l  FSU Posts  l  Contact Us

Stephan Bogner

"WEEKLY CHART THOUGHTS"
April 8, 2004
Update on April 7th


Yesterday, both gold and silver were breaking out of
triangular price formations at approximately 10:30am NY.

Gold – Wednesday 7th April 2004

Silver – Wednesday 7th April 2004

At the same time, the USD Index was trading at the very end
of a triangle that was building up for 3 days.

Because the USD was still holding slightly at its apex, but gold and silver were already exploding out of their respective triangles, the metals were anticipating that the USD would break to the downside. And they were right: 

Gold – Wednesday 7th April 2004

Silver – Wednesday 7th April 2004

Gold was breaking and thrusting out of its triangle from $419 to $423 – at which resistance zone it was building up another triangular consolidation formation for about 66 minutes. At 12:05pm gold was rising in a sharp thrust above $423, but suddenly the price collapsed beneath $423 and found support at $422. Again, the $6-Rule was not being breached thanks to gold's second triangle which was not able to thrust. It was not a fake-breakout, because the price was not crashing beneath the apex at $422. Similar phenomenon occurred in the silver market: The second triangle began to thrust sharply after gold did the first move. Silver tried to pass the resistance at $8.24, but as gold surprisingly went down, silver as well started to trade beneath its respective resistance zone. At 13:00pm, gold tried to rise to $423 again after having found support at $422. Similar price behavior for silver, but as gold's final try was not successful, it took its support at $422 and waited for the end of the NY-trading session. Same should have happened to the price of silver: but after the final attempt to rise at 13:00pm, silver did NOT take $8.20 as support but fell further to $8.16 showing that silver was not only following gold's movements closely, but was under a more intense selling pressure.

US-Dollar-Index – Thursday 8th April 2004

The head and shoulder formation of the USD-Index broke down. First support was found at 88.1 from which the Dollar began rising fast to 88.8 – slightly above the current neckline of the H-S-formation. This behavior is not uncommon and labeled as "a classical pullback". The consolidation period above the neckline is currently taking the shape of a triangle – to decide whether this neckline shall be taken as support again to try overcome resistances at 89.4. If failing, the loss in the USD will accelerate.

Feel free to send me your comments and how you feel about all the triangles.

HAPPY TRADING, GO GOLD & GATA!!

© 2004  Stephan Bogner
Archives  Email

Chart courtesy: www.stockcharts.com

Home  l  Broadcast  l  WrapUp  l  Storm Watch  l  Perspectives  l  Sitemap  l  Contact Us

Copyright ©  James J. Puplava  Financial Sense™ is a Registered Trademark
P. O.  Box 503147 San Diego, CA 92150-3147 USA  858.487.3939