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ABBOTT
& COSTELLO MEET FRANKENMARKET
by Gary
Tanashian
biiwii.com
August 27, 2007
From Son
of FrankenMarket (June, '06): Boris Karloff's third and
final role (there were many more regrettable sequels to come later) as
the most famous monster of all time came in Son
of Frankenstein (1939). The movie was considered credible but
despite having the biggest budget, was not up to the standards of the
previous two. If there is to be a Son of Frankenmarket, it will need a
bigger budget as well because it will be an exercise in the law of
diminishing returns, whereby more and more liquidity (inflation) is
required to achieve ever-less satisfying results. In fact, this phase of
Frankemarket's journey could become a slippery slope right into Abbott
& Costello Meet Frankenstein (1948).
Adonis
The
great inflation-fueled bull market had its improbable beginnings in the
early 1980's as gold was blowing off, Paul
Volcker was whipping the effects of the previous inflation and the
public was anything but turned on by the thought of buying stocks.
Quite frankly, at the time I was thinking more about how to get a
girlfriend or what bands were playing in Boston then anything having to
do with stocks or finance. So I am unqualified to go on about what
a great buying opportunity it was. I will leave that to Richard
Russell, Robert
Prechter and others who made the call. Suffice it to say, the
birth of this bull market led to eventual paper wealth creation and
economic expansion unimaginable to most at the time. It also led
to cemented perceptions by the public; perceptions that became as strong
in the late 1990's in favor of stocks, bonds and all things paper as
they were against same in the late 1970's. It was the best of
times and the stock market was a thing of beauty and envy. But it
was also a thing of greed, excess and gamesmanship.
FrankenMarket
Then,
in the year 2000 something changed. It turned out there was
nothing new under the sun in the 'New Economy', brick and mortar
companies actually did have value (assuming they were well
managed) and scores of dot.com and technology converts watched their
paper wealth plummet like a led balloon. By way of disclosure, I
was actually quite sweet on the optical networking sector in the late
1990's. How did that work out for me ;-)?
But the resulting
deflationary impulse (brought about by deflating stock bubbles as greed
and confidence morphed through the usual stages of denial, anger,
bargaining, depression and acceptance) exposed the ugly side of the
boom/bust fiat world; everything is fine as long as assets are rising.
But in the dark days of 2000-2002, which included the previously
unimaginable horror of 9/11, the questions became "Where will this
stop? Is there a bottom?". The questions were even more
profound to those who bothered to look at the dynamics of the global
economy which was increasingly dependent on outsourced foreign
productivity and American consumption. In a credit (debt) based
global economy, Robert
Prechter's now projected 'crash' simply would not do. No, it
would not do at all.
Enter the maestro.
Enter the time tested and celebrated Doctor Greenspanstein. It can
be argued that Adonis had long since begun to fray at the edges and
betray an inner ugliness, but from the first jolt of credit
mainlined into its veins, Adonis the wonder market had ceased to live.
It was now FrankenMarket, a beast that would need ever more credit
creation to keep it from turning on its masters. This market was
now dependent on increased inflation to stay animated.
Bud & Lou
With
the scary mortgage and other credit/debt events - long foretold by
observers such as Doug
Noland - now on open display to the public and major financial
media, it is well past time to take stock (no pun intended) of personal
finances and ask the hard questions; the why's, how's and what for's of
the reflation economy. Biiwii.com
started to ask those questions in 2004 in the hope that some people
would try to shed the casino mentality and assured confidence that 20
years of bull and inflationary policies had bred in the general
public and financial media. While we have generally moved toward
technical analysis and major investment trends since then, a tone of
grounded realism remains vital because this latest sequel, Abbott and
Costello Meet FrankenMarket is no laughing matter.
Doctor
Bernanke is now keeper of the castle. The monster is by now
staggering all over the countryside, one day falling and rolling down a
hill and the next day climbing back up again as it tries so hard to make
it back to the castle for another jolt of juice. Fully alert
public perceptions mix with a 'sell anything at any cost' mentality by
hedge funds seeking to get liquid and de-leverage. Come to think
of it, this shlocky sequel to FrankenMarket
actually has an interesting sub-plot; will the doctor be in and will he
provide the rate cuts that the bond and stock markets have already
insisted upon? Will they work as the current summer rally would
have us believe? Stay tuned... and if you have not yet done so,
get a plan toward safety in place.
Post Script
I
say toward safety because after all US Treasuries, as with the
bonds of most governments, provide you with negative exposure to long
term inflation. While they can be suitable for short term
liquidity needs, there is another asset that is no one's liability but
pays no interest. People who have opted out of the casino find
value in that however. At best, treasury and government bonds are Young
Frankenstein (very funny) in their relative quality during short
term turbulence. A traditional stock and bond mix with no regard
for the dynamics of the unwinding credit bubble is Bud & Lou,
featuring the immortal Glenn Strange as the monster. The first
stage in the bull market in hyper-risk began in 2000 and was the amazing
Boris
Karloff as the monster. By now the bubble in risk is wrapping
up the set and our little Frankenstein metaphor is done.

© 2007 Gary Tanashian
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