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RUN
AWAY!
by Gary
Tanashian
biiwii.com
December 14, 2007
 If
pre-market is any indication (and very often it isn't), we could have
another one of those moments; you know, the ones where gold bugs'
resolve is tested and the ones who don't know why they do what they do
(momo's and various other inflation-traders) are broken and take their
losses yet again. Tax loss season only adds to their incentive.
Santa is in full swing and remains on schedule as the nation that
knows denial is not just a river in Egypt tells itself a happy story
(the abbreviated version of Goldilocks) for the holidays. The US
Dollar is finally getting its counter-trend rally with resistance
noted over head. The broad stock market is temporarily in a USD
positive correlation stance, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley raised
their estimates for economic growth in the wake of the "consume at ALL
costs" American consumer's irrepressible (one might say chronic)
penchant for doing what he does best; use unproductive means to get to
seemingly satisfying ends. So, happily, consumer nation prepares for
the holidays in good cheer. Wall Street, in the heart of bonus season,
cheers right along.
Back to gold, the counter-cyclical asset. While we suspend disbelief
for a while and the USD catches a bid, gold bugs get clobbered. This
is not a conspiracy. This was an over-bought market that was plunged
into head first by legions of people who do not understand anything
about the big picture but rather are routinely subject to the emotions
and knee jerks of the short term. They are being bled out and this is
healthy. Goldman projects 600 gold next year and previously OVER
bullish sentiment is getting unwound. Astute gold market watchers are
feeling more bullish (they were uneasy with the frothy momo to the
840's, I will guarantee you) with these developments. The big picture
is bullish for gold and the short term noise is counter trend stuff. I
am still leaving open the daily symmetrical triangle and its near term
target of 920 (in conjunction with the weekly symmetrical triangle
projecting to the same area) but if you have eyes, you see gold is
under siege at the hands of the Santa-Goldilocks partnership.
If you are emotion driven, you see the bunny ripping off men's heads.
If you are using logic... well, you know.
© 2007 Gary Tanashian
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