Uncle Buck - In for a checkup

by Gary Tanashian, Biiwii.com | December 9, 2008

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This is just a routine (daily) checkup on the USD. We will evaluate upside or downside potentials after the Dollar breaks the Head and Shoulders neck line shown on the chart and approaches the initial target at the 38% Fib retrace.

Upside momentum has been waning for some time now and as MACD triggered down and was confirmed by the slower TRIX indicator, it became apparent that at a very minimum the Dollar was losing steam and markets, which feasted off of Dollar weakness and got decimated due to its impulsive strength, would catch a breather.

But what remains critical is the look of the topping pattern in USD and corresponding bottoming patterns in most markets. We have been watching these patterns in Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) and following money supply and other non-USD supportive data in support of a bullish gold miner and decidedly UN-bearish stock market stance.

Simply put, the Dollar benefited from a global panic back to prudence. This deleveraging may not over, but the time is right for an extended rally and return of hope to global casino patrons. As the rally gets long in the tooth perhaps in a few months, it will be time to evaluate the Dollar's fate from that point. Remember, its paper competition is just a lesser version of intrinsically valueless.

Copyright © 2008 Gary Tanashian
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